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Weird Channel
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Weird Channel

by The MoleOctober 23, 2009

I drew this short term channel one a few days ago – but kept it on because it keeps getting touched:

So, I have to ask – why is this one so important?


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at various social media waterholes below.
  • Cypherd

    Will load up on puts if we break the morning lows from yesterday.

  • mugabe

    The Dow 10,000 hats can be put away. But into mothballs, or handy on your desk? Dat is the question.

  • roncofooddehydrator

    Bought FAZ based on CCI(50) signal on the 2hr chart.

  • mmTesla

    Taking XLU off, I think it has become a bigger bullish trade. Above VPOC and below VWAP, also low volume, I expect breakout to the upside. Just my .02
    http://screencast.com/t/McsV7I5CVke

  • Rightside_ot_trade

    “why is this weird channel so important?”
    Because it's evil?
    Because it will be resistance on our way down (2)?

  • hank30

    Time to cover short positions.

  • centerline

    Just popping in to say Hi. Computer crashed AGAIN. Just getting back up and running today. Leaving early to take kids camping (why oh why did the cold snap here in Florida not last?).

    Scalping some SPY puts today only. Would like to see some of the gaps below from earlier month get filled. Otherwise, staying out of the chop.

  • http://dreadwinaard.livejournal.com dreadwin

    I'm seeing IYR being aggressively bought on each new low.

  • john_matrix

    it must be some trendline from the top

  • fa_q

    Well, well, well…we hit my 1073 a bit sooner than I thought. This could get ugly. Like 1060-1064 ugly if it's not saved.

  • john_matrix

    i only got 1077.1

  • T_dub

    Keep it now and sell them in a few months on E-Bay.
    It will be like the “Super Bowl Champs – Buffalo Bills” T-shirt.

  • tradejane

    Sold half of SRS at 9.7, will sell the rest when UYG covers its gap. Then looking to buy into UYG for run up to 6.07 area.

  • SpeedSkt1

    index p/c ratio continues to run under 1.00, even as the market pulls back further intraday…….this is a change in behavior……seems like the mouth-breathers are very confident that this will just lead to another immediate dip-buying opportunity

  • PeterK80

    AS did I ron… looking for XLF to go to 14.75-14.80 area

  • innatedc

    +1 on the observation and insight.

  • fa_q

    ES

  • fa_q

    ES

  • tradejane

    Crystal ball says DOW drop to 9850 area, then run up to 1080 area. If DAX doesn't make a new high in the meantime… that may very well be The Top ™.

  • hank30

    Tape is about to reverse. Watch out, bears.

  • innatedc

    Gang my presence here will be a little sparse for I am focusing on a new trading system and running alot of backtesting and simulations…..will try and post some charts this weekend…..G/L rats and go get em.

  • KidDisco

    i wonder how much jeff bezo's net worth went up just today.

  • gregn

    Is that just a gut feeling or are you an GS insider like Anna?

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    Good luck Inna hope it works great for you:)

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    I am looking for 1064 Fa_q after this bounce is over with 🙂

  • defleming

    why?

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    hi Center 🙂 hope you stay up and running.

  • hank30

    I wish. Would be spending this time in The Maldives.

  • hank30

    Better than watching this tape all day long.

  • Tronacate

    That would be nice……..scuba all day long

  • AS2009

    You are going to kill the longs Anna 🙂

  • Darkthirty

    As a b of c or 4 of 1 of 3?

  • hank30

    Bad news for the bears, there is no conviction on the downside of the market. Just small pullbacks. After seven months, don't you think that the bears would have a better perfomance today. The game continues.

  • fa_q

    I could be wrong, but I thought I read that the Bezos family owns 1/3 of the float of AMZN. So that would be about 110m shares x 23 bucks today

  • vision_invisible

    Swine flu is at January levels. This quarter will see massive swine flu hit to “public” consumer discretionary. Ideas: EAT, DIN, DRI on any bounce.

  • molecool

    THAT is your reasoning?

    NEXT…

  • gregn

    Your strong selloff today call was pretty, pretty good. Woman's intuition?

  • hank30

    Look at the leading sector. Has not moved yet, relative to the weakness in the market. $ndx!!!

  • http://dreadwinaard.livejournal.com dreadwin

    Good trade! Where do you see this UYG gap at?

  • Darkthirty

    Then it's not leading…is it

  • Scoops

    Well that makes another failed attempt at new highs. It's quite simple and the rr this morning was astounding. I took full advantage of it. Also managed to scalp 11 points off the futures. Until we cross 1101.73 we are pointed down, plain and simple.

  • Scoops

    Selling the rip on Deckers.

  • tradejane

    5.91 – could overextend a bit of course. 🙂 Those kind of stocks rarely leave gaps that's what makes them so interesting.

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    Well early this morning with the Blowout earnings on AMZN and MSFT and then better than expected housing data, that told me a beartime story LOL

  • PRSGuitars

    The bears are furious!

    http://www.cnn.com/2009/WORLD/europe/10/23/russ

    No, really, this is a crazy market — trading both directions until I can discern WTF is actually going on. Just got back to my setup so we'll see how things go the remaining hour and a half…

    Best of luck everyone!

  • gregn

    I posted these last night, but I want to repost to get some feedback. I perhaps found another good buy/sell indicator for the SPX using Market Sentiment+38 period Momentum+McClellanOsc on 15min bars.

    Buy: http://screencast.com/t/mOMEfOR3
    Buy when momentum negatively diverges (in relation to price) to an extreme low, followed by sentiment approaching extreme low then followed by McClellan increasing.

    Sell: http://screencast.com/t/pDRrVZBrARX1
    When there is negative divergence (in relation to price) in momentum and market sentiment.

    Give me your feedback.

  • standard_and_poor

    Waiting to see if 1067-1071 spx holds.
    Tony Robbins just told me “man's success or failure, happiness or unhappiness depends on his attitude”.
    But I am a “market bug” (a nod to centrifugal), a good day for me is when I'm not eaten by a humming bird.

  • hank30

    Holding shorts for a later day, yet this action is not encouraging. Scalping have been covering the cost of holding shorts. Until I see a solid retracement in GOOG, AAPL, AMZN, I will be suspicious of any pullback.

  • Tronacate

    I consider the Russell a better leading indicator……

  • TheMacroEconomist

    Looking for a buy signal / exit strategy now to unload my IWM 60 puts, that served me well on the ride down. Clear support on IWM at 60 so far today and the currency and commodity pits are closed or closing.

    If yesterday was the Orange Juice tape, today is the Econometric Model Program Trading tape.

  • tradejane

    >today is the Econometric Model Program Trading tape.

    You're being too kind. I call days like these the “bust your (basket) balls day.”

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    I heard 2 billion yes, with a B

  • KidDisco

    little divergence on zero lite…

  • DesertEagle

    Zero volume rally…sweeeet.

  • hank30

    This trend from the March lows had followed the weekly chart from March 2003 until 2004. We may have a decent selloff at year end. So far I need to see more conviction from the bears.

  • molecool

    As I said before – I'm at the point where I want to walk away and come back once 1040 has been breached with confidence. This tape is completely insane.

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    as sad as it is – faith is not without irony – killed administrator's last name [Dmitry Potapov] is a nick name for bear

  • jaxon

    thought about hedging but this thing is too pretty a top to mess with. don't want to over trade. i'll probably be sorry. (-:

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    don't forget his Honda

  • DesertEagle

    It's mentally draining. But it's their sandbox. They make the rules.

  • jaxon

    ya hve to admit it IS a pretty top. shampoo fractals.

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    will u settle for 1055?
    http://screencast.com/t/tCWTKodamuy

  • http://www.genxantihero.blogspot.com LostIllini

    The only way to trade this is to hedge this and pull off the one that isn't working….wait 10 minutes and rehedge…. other than that whipsaw city.

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    1040 sounds good, but I will begin to be happy below SPX 1050

  • bshah

    just for fun, is there a name for the CANDLE on AMZN's amazing chart today? I don't think “Engulf” is enough… How @ Swallowing…

  • jaxon

    wouldn't be surprised to see the thing jump up and test the head @ 1088, or so, but i think we are gonna stair step down for awhile. i would love to see a lower low but don't think it's in the cards today. but then it IS the 80th anniversary day of the 1929 crash kickoff.

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    Absofreakinglutely 😉

  • Eva S

    Guys, first we need to close below 1074 to even start dreaming of going much lower.

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    If the volume it at all time highs on AMZN then that would be capitulation and we should see some selling next week.

  • colonel_bleep

    BIDU big move, running up hard to new heights. Probably on Unicom news. 20$ rally in front of earnings on Monday. Amazing stock.

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    this is where I am not quite normal – I am SCARED of SPX closing this week below 1071.49

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    which it looks to be

  • Blind_Squirrel

    Potential Double cycle CIT @ around 3:35 be careful out there

  • insite

    why are you scared of a close below 1071

  • harveydent

    insight to where it could land by earnings? 445-450 possibly…?

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    127% is a perfect short a lot of time, I'll see what I can do next week
    http://screencast.com/t/2iLAGCARW4D

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    GMTA

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    I live is the weird DeMark-ian world with a lot of silly cancellation rules 🙂

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    ???

  • colonel_bleep

    1.80 est, 1.90 whisper. The China Unicom search partnership is big – BIDU will be default engine on all of CU's 3g handsets. Hard to tell if the air is getting thin at these levels, tho.

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    I think it is run up into earnings my rpice target was 440 so expect it to roll soon 🙂

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT
  • bergs

    Starting the push down to our target range. Out at the 1050 range.

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    Never mind great minds 🙂

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    right – “too many mind” is baaaad

  • Blind_Squirrel

    Sol Long 1500 ES

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    hehehehe nice 🙂

  • colonel_bleep

    Guy has cojones, for sure. And is not afraid to show it. After a short string of losses, his last 3 trades netted him 900k – yes 900k.

  • wex

    At least he built a business that people want to use. He's earned it.

  • newbear

    Lately he has been using stops and publishing them, I know in the past they were mental stops

  • http://www.facebook.com/screasy v8muscle

    lol @ amzn….

    http://screencast.com/t/jrcEPKfRhL

    Im' losing a bunch of money on that but whatever. can't help but laugh

  • colonel_bleep

    Posts all his trades. I don't visit the sight all that much, and SOL doesn't talk market action or methodology – just trades. His stop is 1074

  • Bankster

    You ever think about shorting Amazon?

  • dollar

    BKX LOD

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    Oh yea, I am not dissing him, I just dont agree with him…

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    I hope for his sake he did have a stop in 🙂

  • dollar

    GS new LOD

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    can you say capitulation??? great time to short this POS 🙂

  • newbear

    Couldn't be happier.

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    wheeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee POS hahaha

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    MMs just sweeping up stops as fast as they can the thugs

  • molecool

    ¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨
    ¨°º¤ø„¸ N E W „ø¤º°¨
    ¸„ø¤º°¨ P O S T “°º¤ø„¸
    ¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°º¤ø„¸

  • http://www.facebook.com/screasy v8muscle

    hahah for real!

  • fa_q

    Hahaha. No. I like money.

    I never touch individual names. I rarely touch an index – although once IYR drops below the middle bollinger band it will be a sweet short. I really only trade futures for tax reasons.

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    hehehehe 🙂

  • jaxon

    Mole-i am in total agreement with you. we get conditioned. it is what Prechter refers to as the paradox and irony of the market. i've learned a great deal about bear markets. it has been a very costly education. however, i am drinking the EWI koolaid on this one. my ratio analysis leads me to believe that 1080 was the orthodox top and that we are now rolling over. as you say though, we won't have confirmation of this until we breach some significant support.

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    good short point

  • brendl

    Man…you are spot on…reading my mind. i really believe that the GS guys et co. read these blogs, determine where trader consensus exists, and make trades accordingly. (ie opposite) If i would offer anything that has worked for me it is having option spread trades in place – that i dont really trade, – and I look at intra-day extremes to scalp a few points on reversals. have a good weekend all.

  • Blankfiend

    Could be a leading expanding diagonal first minute wave of P3. Could also be the end of a triangular fourth of the current wave up. Got to get lower than Thursday's low to tentatively confirm the diagonal.

  • http://blankfiendsew.blogspot.com/ Blankfiend

    Could be a leading expanding diagonal first minute wave of P3. Could also be the end of a triangular fourth of the current wave up. Got to get lower than Thursday's low to tentatively confirm the diagonal.