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Welcome To Hell Week!
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Welcome To Hell Week!

by The MoleMay 11, 2009

UPDATE 10:45am EDT: So, here I was enjoying my cubes profits when suddenly Ben’s minions showed up:

Make no mistake – this is pure institutional/program trading. I’m looking at various indicators and this is a blatant bang job. We are talking 37 handles on the NQ here and my short term stoch and my MACD were both at 100% 15 points ago.

Welcome to Hell Week! :-)

UPDATE 11:05am EDT: What’s really worth noting here is how much the ES just lagged the NQ during this morning’s short squeeze. Not saying that they can’t bang this thing higher today or tomorrow – good chance actually – but as I keep saying there are obvious cracks forming in the dam. But this morning is a good example of why I keep recommending to play it small/safe. I mean – just look at the past ten days in the chart above – that’s some crazy shit. Daytrader’s heaven…

UPDATE 11:10am EDT: I just took a second look at that Cubes chart and I think I’m seeing a developing channel here:

Let’s keep an eye on this thing. If we bust outside the upper boundary all hell probably breaks loose.

UPDATE 12:44pm EDT: Someone mentioned the ISEE just now:

Those readings in equities are insanely bullish – good news for the bears IMNSHO.

UPDATE 1:22pm EDT: I recommend exiting short positions if we breach the upper boundary of the Cubes channel above with confidence – just FYI. The tape looks like as if we might get a run up at the EOD – as BalaB suggested. Meaning a long spike up – completely overshooting short term stochastics/MACD – followed by only token consolidations which burn the same momentum indicators while going sideways. Not looking good for the bears today and it seems we’re getting either the bear squeeze (orange) or WTF (green) scenarios.

For the record folks – we must not fight the tape. I got in on Friday due to various signals which were proven correct early this morning. However, the bulls are not going to give up easily and I did expect a fight – however not so early and so violent. It’s tough to yet again having to hand the trophy to the bulls but they are the majority right now. No need to be stubborn. I see it this way – if we get a 10th up week our eventual profits will more than make up for the damage taken. Don’t try to force it right here, rats – our time will come. Right now the tape does look pretty wild and I know the psychology that might compel you guys to ‘take a stand’. Don’t do that – I think the channel above is pretty valid and probably the best indicator we’ll get on a day like this.

UPDATE 1:50pm EDT: Boy, not a minute too soon – LOL :-) I assume most of you rats are out now?


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at various social media waterholes below.
  • Anonymous

    3rd Friday of month is OpEx

  • ropey

    I kinda like his middle finger at the mo :), just entered a few Q puts at 34.60 hopefully it rides well.

  • annamall

    Chips are doing well on the NDQ, that and the upgrade for Apple has temporarily pushed the NDQ higher.

  • http://snpmonster.blogspot.com/ SnPMonster

    When there are opportunities, should buy on the dips as long as that is working. Shorts are a gift for the bears…because they need to buy less to gain more….

  • indusequities

    and I caught that 37 handles :)

  • Keirsten

    Keep an eye on MSFT. Bond offering, I suspect the institutions are driving it up to get out. Will probably be the key to the Qs today. G/L

  • molecool

    You bastard! Nice job :-)

    I guess you're done for the week. See you next Monday.

  • fuw

    After working off the extreme morning readings the TRIN seems to have stabilized around the 1.5 level, ie very bearish.

  • indusequities

    Lots of money to be made this week..I'll be day trading the heck out of this week

  • BalaB

    NQs have returned to an opening parabolic launch

    Thank Quetzalcoatl charting was back in time to grab at least that trade. (three other beeuuutttiiiful trades were missed….)

  • http://tradingsigns.blogspot.com/ T. Waffle

    LMFAO @ Ben't Middle Finger.

  • salvadorveiga

    indu I'd really love to see some graphs of yours… You're probably one of the best short term traders i've seen… you're calls are amazing. Would really love to see what do you base yourself in…

    Appreciate all your input here in Mole's blog

  • ZigZag

    There might be more on this in 1-2 days..97%
    http://online.barrons.com/article/SB12418316976

  • BalaB

    Nice Man!

  • ropey

    Will it lead to an audit of the fed? Now that would be fun..

  • http://tradingsigns.blogspot.com/ T. Waffle

    Sold ES @ 913.25
    +6 for the trade. not bad. I will be on side line now. Cheers!!

  • Keirsten

    Thanks Zig. 😉

  • rhae

    QQQQ daily channel… I do not think sector rotation… I think fear and defense… will be interesting to see how we close today.

    http://screencast.com/t/KKqTfJUOtJ

  • molecool

    Oh, today is ALL about fear, rhae.

  • Fujisan

    For those who have QQQQ May spread – please hedge your position if it goes higher than Friday high. You don't want to ride this to the upside as we are running out of time.

  • jabber

    Mole, that also looked like program trading to me, but what exactly are you looking at to make you think that? I can only judge by using my experience, but do you use your own proprietary indicators or something I can look at as well?

  • BalaB

    Chart of this mornings action…..
    I made a late entry error….

    http://docs.google.com/Doc?id=dfjr22bn_90gz8t6xgw

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    Short qqqq at 34.50

  • icdoc

    Great trades Indus. Thank you for sharing. What is your target for the NQ short?

  • globaltrader

    We might test theovernight highs in here. I am ready to add to my shorts at or near those levels in NQ and ES.

  • Basilfawlty

    Fujisan:

    I will really appreciate your input regarding a post I made on 5/8/2009
    I have copied part of it below for your convenience. Thanks

    (Partial REPOST from 5/8/2009)
    A VIEW POINT: (Re: “BUTTERFLY SEASON” write-up)

    When Fujisan wrote her excellent OPEX write-up (Butterfly Season), she made recommendations for OPEX option strategies based on the assumption that we were going to enter a “Bear cycle” of a CONSOLIDATION phase starting 5/4/2009 into OPEX. ( http://evilspeculator.com/?p=6802 )

    Based on how this week has unfolded, it however appears that we are still in the bullish leg of a “TRENDING” phase. (See chart below)

    http://screencast.com/t/IVedvziDG

    This would clearly imply a bullish bais into end of next week.
    (Fujisan, I would really appreciate your opinion on this view)

    Despite the down day yesterday, the SPY still remained in its channel (see Below)

    http://screencast.com/t/GcN8Ekm3

    I will therefore humbly caution those who are persistently bearish and the evidence those not support their bearish leaning til after OPEX.

    I suspect we may see $SPX 930-950 before the pullback.
    I am expecting a very tradeable Pullback in the major indices after soon after OPEX, most probably to a fib retracement level ,and the a run to new highs later.

  • indusequities

    Not sure of the target yet.. I was looking for a close near 1365 last week.. Since we didn't get that, I really don't trust this sell off.. Need to see the action for this week before coming up with a target..

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    11:23 [BAC] B. of A. CEO Lewis wants to repay TARP in month

    OK Ken

  • Lawrence_Chiu

    NQ went to 1366 last night 4:30 AM. Does that count as “last week” because it happened before Monday's open?

  • indusequities

    Good job!

  • indusequities

    Be careful with the market.. I'll be covering NQ @ 1386 area and ES near 900 area..

    Not getting a good feel..

  • salvadorveiga

    Hell week ?

    Are we in OPEX already? isn't it just next week ? 3rd week of the month ?

  • fuw

    A close under 900 would be sweet.

  • BalaB

    Glad you mentioned that:
    http://zerohedge.blogspot.com/2009/05/upcoming-

    Energy, a Homebuilder and a Lender are up for auction also

  • http://tradingsigns.blogspot.com/ T. Waffle

    Short ES @ 912.25

  • ropey

    The gap above is what is making me uncomfortable about holding shorts for more than a day, they could q uite easily fill that today or tomorrow. Given the EW analysis from everyone and potential /ES top at 940-945 then i'm inclinded to get the hell out shortly and sit on the sidelines lol

  • katzo7

    The bottom is waxed, the snow has fallen. Who is ready to jump on mole's tabaggon.

  • Fujisan

    I agree with you. SPY is still in a trending phase and it might as well go up to 950 area before it pulls back.

  • LostIllini

    Wouldn't surprise me if they parked it right at 900.

  • indusequities

    A trendline needs to be violated and the following week it should be retested. A gap down near the violation is not a trend confirmation.. it could be a correction too..

    So I don't like to take chances or guess work.. Shorted @ 1406 and will be covering near 1386 for a 20 handle profit again.

  • fuw

    Mole's tabaggon? Tea bagging? on?

  • ropey

    I hope that isn't a euphemism for something else lol…

  • indusequities

    there is no significance of 900 on today's close.. Today is just another day..just day trade..

  • Keirsten

    Snort.

  • malusDiaz

    3rd friday

  • Basilfawlty

    Thanks.

  • katzo7

    Unlike me, you guys have a dirty minds. LOL
    Wash your mouths out with soap!

  • salvadorveiga

    by the way thanks mole for the email that you just sent… will incorporate those indicators in my evil charts…

  • lester

    it is this week, 3rd Friday of every month

  • salvadorveiga

    oh yeah forgot the 1st friday which was a holiday here in Europe… thanks

  • alphahorn
  • malusDiaz

    i wish, anther week with some of these puts, and they might be profitable… oh wait, the MM would screw that week up instead of this one

  • gusrock1414

    Lester, just transfer your funds into my account and go ahead and take the rest of the week off.

  • katzo7

    I agree with that but think we close up the EW4 even earlier.

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    Whatttttttt a boring day…It's like the market is in slow motion….

  • lester

    can you triple my money this week. I owe my bookie big time

  • globaltrader

    More and more ETFs getting hard to borrow. They really want to force us to use these inverse ETFs dont they…

  • Matador11235

    I saw it :) What do you watch for confirming mo, volume or another indicator. Like you I cut out a little too early. Hindsight is always 20/20 though. I personally think its better to play this tape on the conservative side.

  • BalaB

    Mole, with the poll above, you should add Reliability.

  • Autopsias

    What is the advantage of shorting an ETF instead of buying the inverted one?
    Can someone clear this one for me?

    Thanks!

  • http://www.srsfinance.com SRSFinance

    That's a good point. I've been doing some research and have found that these two are major factors with a lot of traders.

  • Squidman

    Depends on timeframe. Decay in your favor for longer term hold. Thats it. Short term, stick with inverse.

  • BalaB

    Cool. Glad you caught it. ; )
    I've been watching the E-Minis for sooooo long, I have a moderate understanding of their structure in an opening thrust.

    email me at jfbalab at shamwow! flominator goo gone! ch. ch. ch…CHIA… gmail u know the rest

  • molecool

    I wonder what put that idea into your head – LOL :-)

    Seriously, that's why I'm paying for IQFeed – never goes down – it's like a tank.

  • molecool

    Just sell a call and buy a put – voila synthetic short position.

  • BalaB

    Yeah…Big bummer this morning. I know I should let it go. I had a trader friend over yesterday for three hours going over ideas for the coming week. Almost every one would have made a nice profit this morning and I missed them……

  • LostIllini

    Yes he was using Tea bagging as a Euphemism for sledding because it's not nice to talk about sledding in public.

  • tranchefoot

    It's nice to know your ideas are good…

  • salvadorveiga

    compounding issues, slippage and time decay…

    check FAZ and FAZ… they are both opposite of each other yet someone shorting when they were both at 80 USD they would win in both sides….

  • Autopsias

    Ok I understand, the time decay was evident but I was only thinking on a short term basis as those 3x are not healthy to keep longer than that.

    Cheers!

  • Squidman

    The stochs should have kept you in, a la king?

  • annamall

    Nice Mole! :-)

  • ropey

    IQFeed, what do you think? It's cheap compared to other datafeeds but i was a little concerned on the quality comign through, would get a mismatch between my previous broker and them for some stuff. Having said that, great for trying ideas out, i had some nutty stuff testing put/call ratios/volumes, upticks etc prior to earnings to see if i could get a better probability on where things were going…i increased my chances by 10%..but it still ended up being a crapshoot lol

  • annamall

    I went long ES @ 910, we are in a channel de jour and I am riding that.

  • MyLifeMyTrade

    I closed all tech shorts right at QQQQ = 34.7, and closed every other short near /ES = 909. And went long there … mostly financials and energy.. with tight stops… looking for SPX 950 here.. will go short if we get there OR if we reverse and take out lows of the day at ES = 905.

  • alphahorn

    we'll know soon, c of 4 underway. can't wait for 5

  • Squidman

    I agree. I tested both short/long and less than 2 days better to buy inverse. Certifiable longer than that.

  • globaltrader

    I should have been more specific. I was referring to the inverse LEVERAGED ETFs have well documented issues that, over the long term, work against you, especially if you hold them for more than a few days.

  • ropey

    GS dying a bit..

  • BalaB

    Yes they should have…..
    I was too thrown off from the data feed issue I was leaving nothing to chance.

  • lester

    Is this just for a scalp/DT?

  • fa_q

    ISEE off the charts today. Boy these small/odd lot retailers are going to make a fortune (chuckle, chuckle)

  • http://tradingsigns.blogspot.com/ T. Waffle

    H&S on ES 5 min chart. Be carefull.

    Target is around 905 I am short ES @ 912

  • molecool

    Where you around this morning? LOL

  • http://tradingsigns.blogspot.com/ T. Waffle

    NQ is showing some weakness.

    Rally is getting out of steam.

  • annamall

    yes, scalping Les, TW I already sold @ 912.25

  • annamall

    God I need some no doz!!!!!!

  • annamall

    I have a vertical put spread on GS that I had posted last week. :-)

  • Squidman

    Are you calling that 916.50 poking above the channel the head?

  • http://stainlesssteelchicken.blogspot.com/ StainlessSteelChicken

    Careful now, you don't want this to happen…

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bflYjF90t7c

  • alphahorn

    no kidding, this last leg of wave 4 is really dragging on, i see four more waves before it's finished, once we top out around 921, should get a bit more fun

  • http://tradingsigns.blogspot.com/ T. Waffle

    Yes, 912 area is Right and Left shoulder.

    Short NQ @ 1400

  • ropey

    AAPL is propping the techs, what a damn convenient upgrade for kaufman….
    GS is not looking too hot now after the first few hours….

  • annamall

    OMG that was funny! LOL :-)

  • annamall

    That's so they can dump it at a high price (the bastards) :-) Sold /nq @ 1400.00

  • annamall

    zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz 😉

  • http://tradingsigns.blogspot.com/ T. Waffle

    you are addicted to Futures. lol

  • fuw

    New daily lows in the financials.

  • LostIllini

    Lester: Instead of trying to catch every micro move just hunt the big ones. I am not discounting the fact that we may or may not see 950 but the upside seems rather limited until the oversold condition simmers down quite a bit. This is how I am playing it…..

    http://www.screencast.com/users/lostillini/fold

  • ropey

    Rosenberg comments on the sucker's rally

    http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/article/24

  • http://tradingsigns.blogspot.com/ T. Waffle

    I am also short NQ @ 1400 😉

  • annamall

    I am I am…I just make a few points every side and man that adds up quick. I just covered /nq for a quick 5 points. (I'll take it :-))

  • annamall

    What are thinking of doing @ /es 905 ?

  • http://tradingsigns.blogspot.com/ T. Waffle

    I will cover around 906 n call it a day

  • Squidman

    Mole, just so I am clear what is the plan for closing the Q's vertical please?

  • BalaB

    fwiw…..the NQs are printing a price pattern consistent with an EOD push up.

  • molecool

    For me it's that channel I posted. If we breach that upper boundary I will scale out as I would expect more ugliness. If you want to be stubborn hold until the Friday highs, but I wouldn't want to stay in there any further.

  • molecool

    Would agree actually.

  • arak0

    Mole,

    You aren't reading the ISEE numbers right. Index PC needs to drop below 60 before you can be assured of an 80% chance it is good for the bears. Right now, it seems folks are buying calls for this Opex and hedging with index puts as these are cheaper.

  • annamall

    God, the chips are on fire. So I am thinking the NDQ could get stronger. I am long QCOM BWB (may call spread) and FFIV BF. (June call spread)

  • alphahorn

    The SPX is tracking as I expected, it's taking forever for this wave to play out, and could take the remainder of today.

    http://www.screencast.com/users/alphahorn/folde

  • ropey

    Yeah what a pain in the butt – well the channel hasn't breached >yet< but like Bala and Mole say it feels like a push up into the close which would be a bind…that's the problem with upgrades on components that have a significant effect on an index i..e AAPL on the Qs..
    Now i have to figure out whether to hold or not, im thinking my stop will be 34.70ish, if they take that out for the close i have to get out and reasses yet again, one day it'll go right lol

  • Thrownaway

    Our buddy Ambrose tells it like it is:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambr

  • annamall

    Wake me up when it finally gets there 😉
    Well I am off to do some stuff.

    See you guys in a while :-)

    BTW where's S&P and Fujisan?

  • annamall

    that's true. they do it so they can dump at a higher price. (the thugs) I am holding my aaple put spread. Tomorrow will give some back. :-)

  • alphahorn

    timing might be right for some long scalps right here

  • indusequities

    I doubt.. It should not violate 1410 and sell off again to 1385 level

  • MyLifeMyTrade

    For those looking to go long, energy and small caps are lagging the other sectors… IMO they WILL play catch up by EOD… Yes, Yes… I hear ya that they have been leading the runup so far…. so they are taking a breather today… I think by the time SPX hits 930 today (yes.. we get there today again…), OIH and others should take out highs of the day too..

  • MyLifeMyTrade

    I am in complete agreement.. 10 pt SPX push towards EOD coming.. Today seems no different from so many other gap down days except that the dip buyers are taking time to show up… which is in sync with your thesis that cracks are finally showing up.

  • MyLifeMyTrade

    IMO deeper the dip… stronger has been the rip.. we just need few dip buyers and then again there will be panic buying..

    There are two ways market can screw both bulls and bears.. (a) stop short of 950 (200 dma)…. (b) rip past 200 dma and retrace from 955 – 960…

    I see that the latter can suck in more people… and that is whats gonna happen… I am sure tonnes of folks are buying cheap May puts looking for a big move.. I dont think thats gonna happen.. Additionally there isnt a catalyst for that…

  • yazzer

    Shuttle launch in T-12 minutes…

  • poopsquad

    trained responses are not rewarded forever. I'd be careful here about longs. Everyone is familiar with the buy the dip (and especially gapdowns) behavior of the past 3 weeks. So far so good, if the push higher this afternoon, doesn't happen, I expect a 'from failed moves come fast moves' type of reaction. Dont see much bearish sentiment on the board here either. Its not clear to be short here, but I still think the risk/reward favors it here…or stay in cash and wait for the fireworks this afternoon.

  • molecool

    Good thinking, MLMT.

  • molecool

    She's probably juggling a dozen spreads right now.

  • innatedc

    THanks mole on the encouragement cause I am just at my wits end with that fuckin Qs trade….I did not take profits this morning thinking that it was a gap fill only

  • molecool

    arak0 – not sure if I understand you correctly. In any case – the ISEE is inverse to the P/C ratio. Meaning a high number is very bullish while a low number (below 100) is bearish. I usually don't correlate with the P/C anymore as this also accounts for market makers and institutional buying.

  • lester

    If I were to try a day trade long position right now, would my odds be better with SPY or QQQQs? or maybe XLF? Any advice would be appreciated. Am very glad I did not enter any shorts this morning….

  • v8muscle

    absolutely. like i've been saying, i think this May opex will be the last time the bulls will win for a while, so they're gonna run this tape as high as they can

  • v8muscle

    absolutely. like i've been saying, i think this May opex will be the last time the bulls will win for a while, so they're gonna run this tape as high as they can

  • Keirsten

    Out of what Mole?

  • alphahorn

    little spurt up coming in a minute

  • molecool

    I know how you feel as I did the same thing. My fault for not taking profits during OPEX week right after a major drop. However, for me the implications are different – unlike many others here on the board I do not want to turn into a daytrader. Already have enough excitement trading the evil.rat and resident.evil bros – that's all the intra-day action I need. On my discretionary trading front moves like this make me recoil and wait for even more overbought conditions. I was lucky enough having played it small in the past few weeks which is why I haven't lost any $$$. It's quite apparent at this point that this tape will be manipulated up until the same players change direction and start to play it down. When this happens exactly is anyone's guess as I can keep adding additional legs to the wave count but there doesn't seem to be much rhyme or reason for it anymore.

  • annamall

    wheeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee shuttle awesome!! I can't see it here in Florida in the sky!

  • katzo7

    Not long here lester, no, no IMO.

  • rhae

    Q'z … I want to see a fumble before the goal line, 34.98

    It is out of my hands, all I can do is cheer…

    http://screencast.com/t/zHDacPBNdN

  • http://www.srsfinance.com SRSFinance

    You might just be as evil as Mole. Perhaps you are mini Mole?

    I agree, good thinking. I could use a little more of your's and mole's deviousness.

  • BalaB

    If we continue to pull back, I believe you just called a top within 1/4 pt.
    +1

  • yazzer

    u lucky dog!

  • moneyfarm

    Hey Keirsten. Still got your eyes on GYMB?. I just took an initial short position @ 35.35 on this pullback.

  • lester

    thanks for feedback. I was thinking long cuz the QQQQ were above Moles channel in his post above. Also many other bullish posts on the blog, but I myself am not so sure as indices pulling back a little…

  • v8muscle

    they need to retest the broken wedge inside the parallel channel. I think they could hit 35.50-35.75 without too much trouble

    http://screencast.com/t/cxjzfNF8i

  • annamall

    I am doing the same. For the most part (about 80%) are working perfectly. I will post the May spread results @ OPX.. :-)

  • MyLifeMyTrade

    The opportunity to go long was this morning… Q's are almost a buck above the lows of the day… right now Q's are in no man's land… are so are the other indices… Energy might offer some decent day trading long opportunities even now… But not the Q's or SPY or IWM…

  • wex

    was that your launch?

  • lester

    thanks for keeping me out of trouble. I did not go long this morning because I was looking for short opportunity. Hows that for stupid logic…

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    XLF getting down to the lows of the day..

  • fuw

    If you DO want to go long, XLF is near LOD, so in a late day rally they should pick up. I wouldn't though.

  • MyLifeMyTrade

    It has always helped to put on all three hats – bull, bear and MM whenever I am trying to determine the ST, IT and LT trends.

  • ropey

    The only problem i have with all of this is that every man and his dog is looking at 940 on the ES etc and expecting things to close out at the peak this week, to really mess it up they could dump it hard or whipsaw it all over the place…it's going to be interesting for sure.

  • MyLifeMyTrade

    When in doubt – DO NOT TRADE.. If you can keep yourself out of no man's land trades… which are nothing but “wild guess on direction” trades, you will cut your losing trades into less than half..

  • anthem

    I can see how lester is all confused. Everyone on the board is calling for a push up EOD and the retired guy wants to get in on the action. . .. .

    lester, we're in the middle here, so it could go either way. While some may feel its going to go up, because its in the middle, the potential downside risk is still quite high. . ..

  • MyLifeMyTrade

    Not sure who is the tell – Q's or the financials…

  • ropey

    Sector rotation into tech due to upgrades of AAPL and microsoft bond stuff. Financials dumping today soley due to the raising of capital via dilution.
    Probably flip again tomorrow lol.
    Noticed Qs have been green all day and /ES red all day, very interesting.

  • salvadorveiga

    This damn thing has been playing the pivot points all day long…

    Asside the morning drop which was probably a fakeout of the pivots…

    http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_l3Np4NrEMCU/Sghr-Ga5V

  • lester

    I gotta admit I am in the middle and cornfused. XLF dropping Qs rising and SPY stuck in the middle. Just watching for now.

  • DMS425

    He probably also wants to keep his job……..

  • Autopsias

    Mole,

    Haven't heard your advise to get out and am keeping my .rat resident. positions still…

    Am I too crazy for not listening to you?
    Am just so weary of not obeying the systems and then regretting it…

  • BalaB

    Could it be because of dilution?

  • lester

    just watching, I may actual short XLf if it sets new LOD.

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    who know ..I'm short XLF and FAS from Friday..

  • BalaB

    Still playing around with this volume cluster thang'
    Intra-Day NQs
    http://docs.google.com/Doc?id=dfjr22bn_92fg84zx7v

  • arak0

    The best setup I've seen work 80% of the time or more is when

    1. Market is moving up
    2. Equities PC is >160
    3. Index PC < 60.

    One more consistent setup (>60% win rate) is when index < 60 and equities PC > 120.

    Given today's setup, I expect ES to close around 915 +/3 points or so.

  • rhae

    Never trusted analyists much… look to see who signing their checks, Gates, Balmer, Jobs?
    sure good for a pop, or insiders wanting to unload?… dunno I just don't trust'em

  • katzo7

    IMO, best supportive case for bears is to frustrate and wear dowen the bulls. This EW4 sideways move sucks, but maybe it will break bull case.
    Sometimes, when a day starts out lower (and visa versa) it will finish at LOD. Bookends.

  • v8muscle

    i dont see us going under 900 this week at all. i think theyre gonna pump it past 940 very quickly to encourage panic buying when people think they missed the boat.

  • Keirsten

    Have it on my watch list, but put my money to work in copper this morning.

  • salvadorveiga

    don't worry… we portuguese already sailed seas of turmoil in the 1400's…. you and I are now just making stand… I'm with you… 😀

    hopefully the freaking pivot point will get broken:

    http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_l3Np4NrEMCU/Sghr-Ga5V

  • http://tradingsigns.blogspot.com/ T. Waffle

    very boring day.

  • arak0

    won't be so boring by close for you …. Just watch

  • MyLifeMyTrade

    That is exactly what I see too… Financials do flip back into green tomorrow IMO.

    ________________________________

  • http://zstock7.com/ zstock

    NEM huge red candle, might be the start of a 2 day falling knife–use a 42.6 stop loss

  • http://tradingsigns.blogspot.com/ T. Waffle

    What are you expecting? up-move or down?

  • b00b

    since it seems to be a qqqq day, anyone following get some bad data from TOS?
    or was that candle real?

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    XLF just sitting on the toilet seat at 12.40….Will it break?

  • http://zstock7.com/ zstock

    IWM has to go one way or the other at least a 2% move–on overnight–
    Which way Z!?
    If I knew that, I'd be getting the big bucks.

  • http://www.aggressivelyuninformed.com nepharis

    Hey rats,

    For those of you who only want to follow the resident.evil signals, it's very easy to do with Mole's suggested Gmail setup. In the filter, just add “resident.evil” to the 'Subject' filter, and you're done!

    I've got two filters, one for evil.rat and one for resident.evil, and am switching it so I only get resident.evil forwarded to my phone. The new setup is pretty ideal — cheaper for Mole, more customizable for us!

  • molecool

    Dude, at this point I think your approach is golden. Trade the first hour and profit – go to the strip club – come back (happy) – make more dough during the close. Lather, rinse, repeat.

  • MyLifeMyTrade

    Look for a run up into close IMO.. no real reason for weakness .. yes, there is dilution… but ppl believe that the future is rosy enough to make up for the loss in worth due to dilution… look at what happened to SPG & other CREITs a day or so after dilution – they were trading much higher than the high before dilution.

  • arak0

    A close around ES 914 to 918 … NQ 1405 to 1412 setting the stage for turnaround Tue. Find me an Opex week went down in the absence of major negative news. pay attention to the dollar and gold. I expect a tech and commodities pump later in the week to offset the weakness in the financials

  • Osso

    Divergent Indexes. Every day. Will be the tell at the top. No doubt. Expect one to be slightly blown off by manipulators…but they cant blow all of them….so that will trigger the big selloff….sometime.

  • salvadorveiga

    Yeah thanks… I was actually bummed I didn't get resident on my phone… I'm doing that now thanks….

    Let's see if there's delay on this or not… hope there isn't much delay

  • lester

    I am waiting for 12.36 to buy Puts

  • anthem

    Exactly. The real question for a EOD push or EOD sell off is whether the financials will just hold about where they are currently at, or more weakness to come. Q's are definitely calling the shots today, so as long as something else doesn't pull them down drastically, you're going to see Q's pulling the S&P.

  • Autopsias

    Maybe for you guys in the US… Here in the Netherlands apparently Vodafone doesn't have an SMS gateway that works like that…

    Any Dutch guys/gals here that know how to do this gig with Vodafone?

  • anthem

    Hey arak, thats not much of a move in either direction. As of a 1min ago, ES is at 913 and NQ is at 1406 – so 914 to 918 isn't really a move, and NQ is in range as is. . .

    Now, the rest – yeah that's something to consider and take into account.

    :-)

  • http://tradingsigns.blogspot.com/ T. Waffle

    pump or dump? :-)

  • molecool

    ¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨
    ¨°º¤ø„¸ N E W „ø¤º°¨
    ¸„ø¤º°¨ P O S T “°º¤ø„¸
    ¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°º¤ø„¸

  • arak0

    pump

  • alphahorn

    i think there's a window here for FAS, if my count is right we are about to see 3 of 3 of C, here soon, still waves 4 and 5 of C to come before wave 5 down. imho

  • ropey

    bah i dumped my QQQQs for a small loss, just dont like the tape one bit

  • arak0

    If you ask me short here, I won't as I expect the market to close towards the higher end of the range. Now it could do the reverse, but I think the probabilities for that are under 30% for now.

  • BalaB

    That is very kind of you to say. I'm blushing (and NOT because I'm gassy) – LOL
    Thanks Mole….

    FSLR, XTO, STP, AAPL, POT, etc. were very trade-able…..but sorely missed….

  • molecool

    Are you now talking about the P/C or the ISEE? I understand what you're saying – just not sure what you are looking at.

  • TomOfTheNorth

    The Bear's P&L Haiku –

    Green shoots doth arise

    Pushing-up from the rich earth

    Die motherfuckers, just die……

  • anthem

    This divergent is caused by sector rotation into an 'upgraded tech'. The /NQ is tech heavy and is being driven higher. The S&P is energy/financial heavy and since they have had a huge runup the last few weeks, you're seeing some rotation into other sectors.

    Aside – /NQ has been quite strong for quite a few weeks now, so notwishtsanding all the shenanigans/manipulation going on – the NQ has been consistently “irrational”. . ..

  • salvadorveiga

    Agree… in US that happens but I tried that in Vodafone just know and it doesn't work :(

  • anthem

    arak – hey, I love your commentary here. Wasn't going short or long here. I was just pointing out that you said that the tape won't be so boring in a little bit. Watch for a move into this zone and both indexes were already in the zone. That's all.

  • Osso

    aside the tech upgrade (just came when needed)….why the strongest sectors to where the $$ were rotating into as of last friday — Financials/SPX/Dow– are suddenly weak..???
    For the latter….no explanation other than plain weakness on last manipulation effort. Today should have been an ALL SECTOR push, with the good news in what was the weaker sector (NDX)……imo

  • arak0

    Not boring for Twaffle is what i meant since he had a position.

  • annamall

    I agree with you! I sold /nq @ 1402.00 :-)

  • indusequities

    -1 for your Mental Masturbation :) .. +1 for TW for holding his shorts :)

  • mtst

    LOL

  • arak0

    I'm off the market until i'm off the painkillers. the last time i traded on painkillers i got my ass cleaned out. not doing that again. So, it shall be mental masturbation for the next 2 days.

  • katzo7

    Lester, I want you to go back and find some bullish comments today. I was at
    work so couldn't watch it all of th time, but I do not think that was the
    case.

  • lester

    You did not make them. I believe it was MLMT or v8…

  • katzo7

    OK, I did not see them. Again, I was at work. I told you (or maybe I didn't because was very busy today) not to close your JUNE puts That was optimum.
    WHERE TO GO FROM HERE-
    Do nothing as I feel you will rush out and load up on June puts and even worse, between 9:30 ant 10:30 AM tomorrow. What you have to do is to sit and wait until you see me and others to confirm, start yacking. Have to read between the lines lester.

  • lester

    Strongly bullish from MLMT (that 930 got me excited):
    “For those looking to go long, energy and small caps are lagging the
    other sectors… IMO they WILL play catch up by EOD… Yes, Yes… I
    hear ya that they have been leading the runup so far…. so they are
    taking a breather today… I think by the time SPX hits 930 today (yes..
    we get there today again…), OIH and others should also challenge highs
    of last week..

    Disclosure.. I am mainly cash… 15% long via energy and commodities
    with very tight stops.”

    There were others posts by MLMT that should have keyed me to some
    indecision and also fact he was only 15% long. I lost $23 when I could
    have made $200 or so. I am just gonna watch you guys and gals.

  • katzo7

    Only one submission and you say there was bullishness all over this blog?
    Lester, I do not have all of the answers. I have noticed the sometimes MLMT
    is spot on. And sometimes I am spot on. Today I hit it very well. The key is
    to learn charting and even EWs (I will help you with that if you want) and
    that way, you can verify anyone's call with what is occuring with the EWs.
    Now I see EW tops on all time frames up to the 60. While this can
    change–if it shot up 400 points tomorrow, I guarentee the EWs would change
    and ACTUALLY, I would want them to change ASAP as then I would be able to
    make better subsequent decisions–I feel that we are now initiating a down
    move. But if you read my posts, per EW counts, this is not the big kahuna
    down to say 600, or 500, or 400, or as some say, 300. SO I can verify the
    moves relative to what occurs.

  • mtst

    Going long at 903?

    btw see what happened after 12.62 was reconquered in an hourly candle :)

  • katzo7

    LOL

  • katzo7

    LOL