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Welcome To Hell
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Welcome To Hell

by The MoleJuly 13, 2009

We are not losing any time – a 15 point reversal from the overnight lows and now we just dropped ES 10 points from the morning peak. Swing traders are loving it!

For the last four trading days we seem to have ourselves some kind of 877 mean reversal going on. You could also call it one big rope pulling contest – as I said yesterday night – this week ought to be interesting (and painful).

Eat your breakfast and eat hearty – for tonight we dine in HELL!

10:38pm EDT: Yeeeeeeeeeehaaaaaaaaaaaa!!!!!!

Maybe you rats believe me now ? 😉

12:00pm EDT: Caveat Ursi indeed – not to pad my own shoulder – but I warned you guys for several days now (and for a while I started to sound like your crazy uncle).

We’re kind of stuck smack in between two fibs right now – based on the velocity we just saw I think we might push to 902 but we could whipsaw around for a day or two and then finish the week up around 912.

Now, worship me like the God Of Analytics that I am – I will accept the traditional sacrifical lambs and goats after trading hours. And don’t forget to throw in a virgin or two… I prefer B cups and higher.


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at the usual social media waterholes.
Enjoyed this post? Consider a small donation to keep those evil deeds coming!

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  • standard_and_poor

    Morning brothers and sisters.

    I'll be increasing shorts to 50% when COMPX (NASDAQ COMPOSITE) reaches
    1727. I'll short AIG, MAC, KMT, ERX, RGS, and ENER and buy QID (double short etf).

  • molecool

    ¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨
    ¨°º¤ø„¸ S T L ¸¸„„ø¤º°¨
    ¸„ø¤ P L E A S E º¤ø„¸
    ¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°º¤ø„¸

  • annamall

    Morning sweetie, thanks for the pics!

  • Keirsten

    GS has resistance at 147.37 for you scalpers. Next stop 149.80 if it busts through

  • standard_and_poor

    Glad at least one person liked my nudies.

  • molecool

    $COMPQ on Prophet charts.

  • katzo7

    What??????

  • katzo7

    What??????

  • innatedc

    This reversal started around 9:15 as I said….we'll see if 883 holds as others have called….I think not…

  • Keirsten

    Here comes that upper channel line again… watching

  • yazzer

    STL it is…!

  • fuzzygreysocks

    Currency Grief : http://tinyurl.com/n4qhte

  • http://www.ambgtrading.com/ amgrant

    That last move was 9 points so could be swing we were looking for

  • standard_and_poor
  • annamall

    You were right Inna 🙂 I was wrong on that one, but am buying back my spy shorts on this pop. plus 1 for you!

  • Keirsten

    Where have you been?!?! Do you have a roadmap handy?

  • http://chaugner.blogspot.com chaugner

    it has been very painful for me. LOL entered a long off the low on Friday, stop at 865.75. When looking at it on sunday night I was feeling pretty happy about keeping the long over the weeked. Walked away from computer at 9:00PM (high tick). Just to get up at 4:00AM to see my position taken out and get a nice reversal back to the highs.

    PAINFUL indeed. I am not sure what swing trader is loving this – I am not one of them.

  • onorio

    i love the smell of OPEX in the morning…

    More 10pts up, back to square one.

  • GDII

    well nude boy, i think u ignored 2 things.
    1. rumor says the market is pricing-in the chinese gdp to be released tomorrow. the same rumor source also said the growth % will be slightly over 8%, which is an obvious recover sign. if it's true, we may see 900+ imho
    2. mole rule no. 2. only he can talk dirty to the evil's angels. man u so dead ~_^

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    Completed POT Aug90c position avg 4.10

  • Keirsten

    Do you ever have so many TLs drawn you've forgotten why they're there? My intraday charts should arrested for disorderly conduct.

  • http://www.ambgtrading.com/ amgrant

    Careful, we may get reversal here…I'd be patient here. Lot of whipsaw.

  • http://www.ambgtrading.com/ amgrant

    Oil sporting 58 handle.

  • http://stainlesssteelchicken.blogspot.com/ StainlessSteelChicken

    BGOK! No shame in being a chicken today – I'm sitting this one out.

  • fuzzygreysocks

    Hell.
    If it wasn't M Whitney's GS upgrade the whole market would be down.
    http://tinyurl.com/mq7ea2

    http://news.google.com/news?pz=1&ned=us&hl=en&q

    Which just goes to show how stupid the market is.
    Somehow, the things that benefit GS will not benefit most of the so-called financials.

  • annamall

    I did a POT Aug 75/70 put spread for debit 1.55

    reward possible 3.45

  • standard_and_poor
  • thelefteyeguy

    im with you…these swings almost drove me to a heart attack lol

  • rhae

    Not to worry, I have ordered SPX to go to 900 on this bounce, (daily timeframe)lol
    I have a couple of longs BIIB & BGU unless they get stopped out

  • http://www.ambgtrading.com/ amgrant

    OK, here are the new highs I was looking for…got too carried away obviously. I want to see if they hold, if not look out below.

  • Keirsten

    We're out of the channel on SPY now…

  • Keirsten

    What's you #? I'm showing the 88.80 zone

  • thelefteyeguy

    also nice f'ing swing on the NQs…

  • rhae

    I have nothing that suggests a drop for a couple of days… and I'm a Bear

  • Keirsten

    Indeed theleft!

  • innatedc

    Thanks Anna….we usually agree though on direction and I do not take pleasure in “making” you wrong. Just using the charts……Lord knows I've been wrong too….lots.

  • http://www.ambgtrading.com/ amgrant

    ES 883 was my target.

  • annamall

    That was one good call AG 🙂

  • http://www.ambgtrading.com/ amgrant

    I'm shorting this POS rally.

  • http://www.ambgtrading.com/ amgrant

    Short it Anna, it's a fakeout.

  • springheel_jack

    We are at serious resistance and have risen twelve points to get here.

    Participation is light. The USd is up & commodities weak. This may well be as high as it goes today.

  • annamall

    What I did was buy back my short SPY puts on the bounce to 883, gosh you are good! 🙂

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    so am I know, building a war chest of FAZ and SRS, out of most of my long scalps, still holding about 1/3 of my BGU

  • http://www.ambgtrading.com/ amgrant

    OH sorry, I thought you were long those puts. My bad. I love this volatility.

  • rhae

    SPY 15m could pop to 90.25 if it can get thru the rez. zone just over head… currently working on a little 2X bottom rectangle… can't tell at this time what the POS might do…
    http://screencast.com/t/3yk2EgDKtZ1

  • Keirsten

    Not going to short until I see it either fall back into that channel or get under that .236 FIB (88.29) again. This could go either way and run up to kiss the 50 EMA on the daily.

  • Keirsten

    I know. And GS is still cranking. Don't feel comfy shorting on an up day for GS. I need them to be playing along.

  • annamall

    No I had SPY Put spreads so on bounce took profit on the ones I sold 🙂

  • blahblah2

    FYI, Meredith Whitney just put out a hefty new target on GS.

  • annamall

    I took my GS put spread off. Bastards! heheh

  • fuzzygreysocks
  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    maybe I'm oversimplifying things too much, but this sure looks like a simple abc correction to the downturn, and we appear to be in wave c and possibly wave iv of c. Typically a=c and if so then the target of this move is 891.35. We are very close to that level and that is why I'm reducing my long exposure and increasing my shorts.

    http://www.screencast.com/users/alphahorn/folde

  • annamall

    yes, 186 but everyone gets to be wrong sometimes right?

  • ropey

    nods, given whitney's comments being short-term bullish, i think like i said last night the banks are gonna jack the market and give all the bulls that oh so rosey it's all ok glow then it's likely to roll over once opex is done – still not sure it's going to be a cliff dive – could be a just a grind all the way down to low-mid 800s before they flip it and fire it to 1000-1100.
    Then again, H&S do fail from time to time so anything is possible.

  • Keirsten

    Yep, saw that earlier blahblah. 😉

  • ckeltner

    Draw your neckline at 880 spx. You have two left shoulders, a head and 1 right shoulder. We have bounced off the horizontal neckline and are tracing out a shallow second right shoulder. This second shoulder should be a backtest of the RSI 50 on the daily (which is currently swinging up) as well as a backtest of either the 50 sma or the 20 ema by opex/ 17th turn date. I would prefer a test of the 50 sma at 910 since we never backtested it once we broke though.

    This is what I am watching, not the sloping H & S most others have. Don’t know if it is right or wrong, just what I am going by in terms of timing, turn dates and what makes the most sense to me. I am already short so if I am wrong its no big deal, however I am hedged so if it plays out I will get the greatest bang for my buck so to speak.

  • Keirsten

    AAPL has cleared the backtest of the broken TL on daily chart and holding so far… I see resistance at 141.56

  • http://www.ambgtrading.com/ amgrant

    Ok, stopped out…long seems the way to go today.

  • http://dreadwinaard.livejournal.com dreadwin

    Still think today's move is a head fake since we just set a new high? I'm very tempted to short here.

  • ropey

    yeah i closed my BF out, weird thing was, the $$ it was making was pretty crappy, potential 3x profit pho-eee, i'm not sure those risk analysis graphs are spot on but whatever..

    Had problems legging out and even though the stock is up 2$ more, the price to sell the BF hasn't changed at all – may of risked another 2 days and made it but i think there is easier fish to fry ( with a BF )..hey it rhymes lol..

  • Keirsten

    Thanks Ckeltner. 😉 Just saw INDU clear resistance too.

  • ropey

    will someone tell GOOG to quit going up, it's up 25$ dollar is in 2-3 days ..

  • Keirsten

    LOL Ropey!

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    SPX has met my target where a=c, also I see the banks topping out and am loading the boat right here with FAZ
    http://www.screencast.com/users/alphahorn/folde

  • colonel_bleep

    I thinking GS numbers tmw are going to be stunning, if not historical for the co.

  • thelefteyeguy

    yeah i was long over the weekend but my stop got taken out this morning…f me

  • http://www.ambgtrading.com/ amgrant

    I'm out of shorts and long from 887

  • annamall

    BF's are tough sometimes to get in and especially when you want to get out of Ropey. I like them, but they are much harder to fill with all the legs in play 🙂

  • kinihepu

    Me too. Loaded up on Aug 35 Q puts hoping to sit back and rake in the $$$, target ~31.50.

  • thelefteyeguy

    thanks!

  • annamall

    I may be nuts but I just sold NQ @ 1436.00

  • http://www.ambgtrading.com/ amgrant

    No, not nuts…reversal easily possible, but definitely watching out for more upside after that bust through 883.

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    $BKX a=c at 35.95, currently 35.75

  • annamall

    🙂 that sucked! heheh

  • Keirsten

    Sold long scalps, and sitting in cash for now.

  • http://www.ambgtrading.com/ amgrant

    Move to 905 definitely in play. Careful with shorts.

  • disrespekt

    way the hell outside the upper bb on the 30m plus rsi reaching overbought

  • Keirsten

    Watching Big Blue. They've cleared resistance this morning and have earnings on Thurs. fwiw. Gap @ 104.73

  • http://www.ambgtrading.com/ amgrant

    They will press this to the max to the upside…I'm not shorting anymore until I see weakness.

  • Ghostdog

    I have to say that I feel vindicated that we got the rallyI was looking for albeit with a little grinding.. (and that silly indicator I created was actually right… ) Should see 900/905 and then most likely will top out and continue the move to 820 ish but of course will investigate it as it approaches that area.

    One more thought. I really cant see this thing spending a lot of time down at 820 so look for extreme volatility and silly governement intervention as a disticnt possibility. Good luck all.

  • GDII

    brutal short squeeze.
    ssc, we are back above 50% fib now.

  • ropey

    yeah i'm much more comfortable with usual spreads, IC's and calendars – i get those but the BF still messes with me, guess maybe a better approach is to build a BF in part rather than all in one go, the sad thing was i got the AAPL move spot on so i sat for 5 days and didn't really get anything out of it even though the theta was kicking in nicely. The one thing that irks me with TOS is the platform displays your P/F but when you close out it is always way less ( mark ) so even though the profit maybe 500$ you may only get 250-300$ etc…bloody annoying.

  • Douala

    ckeltner

    Check out the “two” shoulder on this chart. Is this what you were describing to Keirsten below?

    http://tinyurl.com/ns5gmj

  • molecool

    Hey, can I get some kudos here? You guys are so busy congratulating each other but I was the lone voice in the dark proposing a short squeeze today.

    Who's your daddy? 😉

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn
  • molecool

    Of course nobody believed me – LOL 🙂

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    congrats but you were not alone, i've been calling for the mid 890s for a week

  • Keirsten

    Why you are Mole. Snort.

  • ckeltner

    Perfect, thanks. Not the sloping one that everyone has been in love with 🙂

  • Keirsten

    Hey- I've never received kudos for calling the shooting star clear back on June 11th. But nooooooooo. LOL

  • thelefteyeguy

    kudos to you 😛

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    congrats

  • thelefteyeguy

    you have to shamelessly ask for it 😛

  • thelefteyeguy

    900 or 895…i didnt wait for 900…

  • itsgold

    Nibbling on some DEC SPY Puts here. Nom Nom Nom

  • Keirsten

    Thanks TheLeft- I don't really care to be honest, I'm just teasing Mole and Alpha. Just hope we can all make money by keeping our peepers open for different things we see. So far, we're good.

  • thelefteyeguy

    im teasing too…poking at Mole lol

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    keep an eye on the bearish wedge on the SPX

    http://www.screencast.com/users/alphahorn/folde

  • annamall

    Good job Daddy! 🙂

  • annamall

    Does anyone know the volume on this short squeeze?

  • http://stainlesssteelchicken.blogspot.com/ StainlessSteelChicken

    Yep. This nonsense is why I was waiting for confirmation from $TRAN and $COMPQ before going on a shorting spree. http://tinyurl.com/n5awah

    Financials skyrocket, Transports can barely get positive, indices somewhere in between. I'd post a link to “Land of Confusion” by Genesis if Genesis wasn't the worst band in the history of music.

    Sorry everyone that I haven't posted much lately — I just don't have much to say!

  • molecool

    You didn't receive the fruit basked I sent you?

  • molecool

    Shameless is my middle name.

  • molecool

    See my update.

  • Keirsten

    No, but I did get that order from Fredericks of H. Thanks! 😛

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    last night on my blog I wrote about the correlation between a great long scalp and the RSI on the 30 SPX breaking above 50. Here is the updated chart I posted from last night. Now notice what happens after it touches 70!

    http://www.screencast.com/users/alphahorn/folde

    But, before that happens, I believe there is money to be made on the long side for those agile enough to scalp a few longs Monday morning. Take a look at the second chart above, a 30 minute chart of the SPX and notice the correlation between breaks above 50 on the RSI 14 and the upward spikes in the SPX. Should the RSI 14 breach 50 Monday morning as I suspect it will, then it should be followed by a couple of hours of decent price appreciation, which correlates nicely with the proposed wave count.

    However, this is a short-term play and a great opportunity to add to shorts. I am playing this for the scalp, but my bias remains to the short side. More that anything, this move up will provide a great opportunity to position oneself for the subsequent and stronger move to the downside.

  • Keirsten

    scalping short, but only for a few candles.

  • Keirsten

    Absolutely Alpha.

  • annamall

    It seems that they are buying the rumor on this tape and if any of the mega/large cap companies disappoint, and or have a less than optimistic outlook that may be our catalyst to the downside. 🙂

  • dollar

    20 day EMA on the XLF is 11.62 – XLF topped at 11.61 so far today

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    Is it just me or TOS having HUGE performance problems with new release?

    /CL completing TDSetup BUY daily today

  • TomOfTheNorth

    Whitney is one of the few worth listening to / acting on. That said, GS (and Banking generally) has a chance to surpass Big Oil this quarter in being the most universally reviled company/industry if their numbers really do blow off the doors. So do they sandbag? Not likely but an interesting concept nonetheless. Record profits/ record bonuses are really going to piss people off. Can't wait for the inevitable Maxine Waters Show sure to follow….lol

    I was surprised Whitney had no calculated impact from muni & CRE deterioration (perhaps I missed that?). She's still on the consumer retrenchment theme…..

  • http://www.ambgtrading.com/ amgrant

    This is consolidation before next push up it seems.

  • disrespekt

    Vol looks ho-hum, nothing spectacular on the SPYs

  • http://stainlesssteelchicken.blogspot.com/ StainlessSteelChicken

    LOL, your comment reminds me of this comic I saw a few weeks ago at the Upright Citizens Brigade… http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5lCdsjseCJ0

  • LostIllini

    I may not get any prognosticating credit but I believe my small mountain of BAC Calls will help solace me….. ;o)

  • annamall

    thanks Dis! 🙂

  • http://www.ambgtrading.com/ amgrant

    Good call. Now give me your damn crystal ball.

  • Ghostdog

    Sorry Left Eye, Im more a marco guy then a technical guy as far as positioning. Im very bearish big picture and will turn bearsh most likely this week short term unless somehow the bulls get a strong close above 7/7
    s high. I looked at the last few days as an opp to write some options on open short postitions. Mole stole my words with the CNBC chuckleheads talking about the H/S… Just too much press makes me skittish… So, we just needed to clear out the neophytes with a rally here and it should resume shortly

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    the head and shoulders neckline around 895 has proven to be impeneterable thus far

  • LostIllini

    I'm in need of a new victim this week, I've really enjoyed my BAC ride but I'm looking for a new sled. What's moving this week? Gold? something else?

  • molecool

    It's turning into a big pain in the ass. Every time the market starts to move my system (MacBook Pro with 4GB of RAM) is starting to rev up the fan and I can barely navigate around.

    If anyone else is having problems please respond here as I will forward our issues to Tom Sosnoff.

  • molecool

    Just a little bit higher – come on bulltarts – you can do it!

  • http://www.ambgtrading.com/ amgrant

    We've seen this type of action before, careful with shorts.

  • dollar

    volume petering out on the Goldman advance

  • molecool

    ¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨
    ¨°º¤ø„¸ N E W „ø¤º°¨
    ¸„ø¤º°¨ P O S T “°º¤ø„¸
    ¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°º¤ø„¸

  • molecool

    Spoken like a true evil speculator 🙂

  • dancingbear

    Mole on the road today with my old 750k
    ram MBP running tos, etrade,blog, @ same time no problems.

  • molecool

    I'm the guy in picture 4 – pushing everyone.

  • pricey

    make that “Big Daddy”

  • faafa

    No fruit basket from me, just some good old STL! :0)

  • Osso

    NDX 1444 resistance….

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    It is freezing my laptop (2Gig ram 7200rpm hd 256meg video card 2gh processor with ONLY TOS running)

    and it totally kills my dual proc XEON with 64gig RAM – WTF
    and 10mbps cable does no good, neither 1000mbpr dsl pro does no good
    No matter what you tell them, they say “not our problem” and they prefer to ban people from their worthless ST chat instead of fixing the damn problem.
    Pardon my French – **** TOS

  • standard_and_poor

    Taking longer term momentum trades, I'll prepare a roadmap for tonight.

    ________________________________

  • standard_and_poor

    Morning brothers and sisters (where ever they are).

    I'll be increasing shorts to 50% when COMPX (NASDAQ COMPOSITE) reaches
    1727. I'll short AIG, MAC, KMT, ERX, RGS, and ENER and buy QID (double short etf).

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    ¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨
    ¨°º¤ø„¸ S T L ¸¸„„ø¤º°¨
    ¸„ø¤ P L E A S E º¤ø„¸
    ¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°º¤ø„¸

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    Morning sweetie, thanks for the picks!

  • Keirsten

    GS has resistance at 147.37 for you scalpers. Next stop 149.80 if it busts through

  • standard_and_poor

    Glad at least one person liked my nudies.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    $COMPQ on Prophet charts.

  • katzo7

    What??????

  • innatedc

    This reversal started around 9:15 as I said….we'll see if 883 holds as others have called….I think not…

  • Keirsten

    Here comes that upper channel line again… watching

  • yazzer

    STL it is…!

  • fuzzygreysocks

    Currency Grief : http://tinyurl.com/n4qhte

  • http://www.ambgtrading.com/ amgrant

    That last move was 9 points so could be swing we were looking for

  • standard_and_poor
  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    You were right Inna 🙂 I was wrong on that one, but am buying back my spy shorts on this pop. plus 1 for you!

  • Keirsten

    Where have you been?!?! Do you have a roadmap handy?

  • http://chaugner.blogspot.com chaugner

    it has been very painful for me. LOL entered a long off the low on Friday, stop at 865.75. When looking at it on sunday night I was feeling pretty happy about keeping the long over the weeked. Walked away from computer at 9:00PM (high tick). Just to get up at 4:00AM to see my position taken out and get a nice reversal back to the highs.

    PAINFUL indeed. I am not sure what swing trader is loving this – I am not one of them.

  • Onorio

    i love the smell of OPEX in the morning…

    More 10pts up, back to square one.

  • http://readingtowin.blogspot.com/ Boris

    well nude boy, i think u ignored 2 things.
    1. rumor says the market is pricing-in the chinese gdp to be released tomorrow. the same rumor source also said the growth % will be slightly over 8%, which is an obvious recover sign. if it's true, we may see 900+ imho
    2. mole rule no. 2. only he can talk dirty to the evil's angels. man u so dead ~_^

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    Completed POT Aug90c position avg 4.10

  • Keirsten

    Do you ever have so many TLs drawn you've forgotten why they're there? My intraday charts should arrested for disorderly conduct.

  • http://www.ambgtrading.com/ amgrant

    Careful, we may get reversal here…I'd be patient here. Lot of whipsaw.

  • http://www.ambgtrading.com/ amgrant

    Oil sporting 58 handle.

  • http://stainlesssteelchicken.blogspot.com/ StainlessSteelChicken

    BGOK! No shame in being a chicken today – I'm sitting this one out.

  • fuzzygreysocks

    Hell.
    If it wasn't M Whitney's GS upgrade the whole market would be down.
    http://tinyurl.com/mq7ea2

    http://news.google.com/news?pz=1&ned=us&hl=en&q

    Which just goes to show how stupid the market is.
    Somehow, the things that benefit GS will not benefit most of the so-called financials.

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    I did a POT Aug 75/70 put spread for debit 1.55

    reward possible 3.45

  • standard_and_poor
  • thelefteyeguy

    im with you…these swings almost drove me to a heart attack lol

  • rhae

    Not to worry, I have ordered SPX to go to 900 on this bounce, (daily timeframe)lol
    I have a couple of longs BIIB & BGU unless they get stopped out

  • http://www.ambgtrading.com/ amgrant

    OK, here are the new highs I was looking for…got too carried away obviously. I want to see if they hold, if not look out below.

  • Keirsten

    We're out of the channel on SPY now…

  • Keirsten

    What's your #? I'm showing the 88.80 zone

  • thelefteyeguy

    also nice f'ing swing on the NQs…

  • rhae

    I have nothing that suggests a drop for a couple of days… and I'm a Bear

  • Keirsten

    Indeed theleft!

  • innatedc

    Thanks Anna….we usually agree though on direction and I do not take pleasure in “making” you wrong. Just using the charts……Lord knows I've been wrong too….lots.

  • http://www.ambgtrading.com/ amgrant

    ES 883 was my target.

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    That was one good call AG 🙂

  • http://www.ambgtrading.com/ amgrant

    I'm shorting this POS rally.

  • http://www.ambgtrading.com/ amgrant

    Short it Anna, it's a fakeout. You can put a nice tight stop too.

  • http://channelsandpatterns.blogspot.com/ springheel_jack

    We are at serious resistance and have risen twelve points to get here.

    Participation is light. The USD is up & commodities weak. This may well be as high as it goes today.

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    What I did was buy back my short SPY puts on the bounce to 883, gosh you are good! 🙂

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    so am I know, building a war chest of FAZ and SRS, out of most of my long scalps, still holding about 1/3 of my BGU

  • http://www.ambgtrading.com/ amgrant

    OH sorry, I thought you were long those puts. My bad. I love this volatility.

  • rhae

    SPY 15m could pop to 90.25 if it can get thru the rez. zone just over head… currently working on a little 2X bottom rectangle… can't tell at this time what the POS might do…
    http://screencast.com/t/3yk2EgDKtZ1

  • Keirsten

    Not going to short until I see it either fall back into that channel or get under that .236 FIB (88.29) again. This could go either way and run up to kiss the 50 EMA on the daily.

  • Keirsten

    I know. And GS is still cranking. Don't feel comfy shorting on an up day for GS. I need them to be playing along.

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    No I had SPY Put spreads so on bounce took profit on the ones I sold 🙂

    Not all but 1/2

  • blahblah2

    FYI, Meredith Whitney just put out a hefty new target on GS.

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    I took my GS put spread off the table Never filled. Bastards! heheh

  • fuzzygreysocks
  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    maybe I'm oversimplifying things too much, but this sure looks like a simple abc correction to the downturn, and we appear to be in wave c and possibly wave iv of c. Typically a=c and if so then the target of this move is 891.35. We are very close to that level and that is why I'm reducing my long exposure and increasing my shorts. Here's a 30 min chart I posted last night

    http://www.screencast.com/users/alphahorn/folde

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    yes, 186 but everyone gets to be wrong sometimes right?

  • ropey

    nods, given whitney's comments being short-term bullish, i think like i said last night the banks are gonna jack the market and give all the bulls that oh so rosey it's all ok glow then it's likely to roll over once opex is done – still not sure it's going to be a cliff dive – could be a just a grind all the way down to low-mid 800s before they flip it and fire it to 1000-1100.
    Then again, H&S do fail from time to time so anything is possible.

  • Keirsten

    Yep, saw that earlier blahblah. 😉

  • ckeltner

    Draw your neckline at 880 spx. You have two left shoulders, a head and 1 right shoulder. We have bounced off the horizontal neckline and are tracing out a shallow second right shoulder. This second shoulder should be a backtest of the RSI 50 on the daily (which is currently swinging up) as well as a backtest of either the 50 sma or the 20 ema by opex/ 17th turn date. I would prefer a test of the 50 sma at 910 since we never backtested it once we broke though.

    This is what I am watching, not the sloping H & S most others have. Don’t know if it is right or wrong, just what I am going by in terms of timing, turn dates and what makes the most sense to me. I am already short so if I am wrong its no big deal, however I am hedged so if it plays out I will get the greatest bang for my buck so to speak.

  • Keirsten

    AAPL has cleared the backtest of the broken TL on daily chart and holding so far… I see resistance at 141.56

  • http://www.ambgtrading.com/ amgrant

    Ok, stopped out…long seems the way to go today.

  • http://dreadwinaard.livejournal.com/profile dreadwin

    Still think today's move is a head fake since we just set a new high? I'm very tempted to short here.

  • ropey

    yeah i closed my BF out, weird thing was, the $$ it was making was pretty crappy, potential 3x profit pho-eee, i'm not sure those risk analysis graphs are spot on but whatever..

    Had problems legging out and even though the stock is up 2$ more, the price to sell the BF hasn't changed at all – may of risked another 2 days and made it but i think there is easier fish to fry ( with a BF )..hey it rhymes lol..

  • Keirsten

    Thanks Ckeltner. 😉 Just saw INDU clear resistance too.

  • ropey

    will someone tell GOOG to quit going up, it's up 25$ in 2-3 days ..

  • Keirsten

    LOL Ropey!

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    SPX has met my target where a=c, also I see the banks topping out and am loading the boat right here with FAZ
    http://www.screencast.com/users/alphahorn/folde

  • colonel_bleep

    I thinking GS numbers tmw are going to be stunning, if not historical for the co.

  • thelefteyeguy

    yeah i was long over the weekend but my stop got taken out this morning…f me

  • http://www.ambgtrading.com/ amgrant

    I'm out of shorts and long from 887…and then out 889. We are way overbought, so dont like r/r

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    BF's are tough sometimes to get in and especially when you want to get out of Ropey. I like them, but they are much harder to fill with all the legs in play 🙂

  • kinihepu

    Me too. Loaded up on Aug 35 Q puts hoping to sit back and rake in the $$$, target ~31.50.

  • thelefteyeguy

    thanks!

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    I may be nuts but I just sold NQ @ 1436.00

  • http://www.ambgtrading.com/ amgrant

    No, not nuts…reversal easily possible, but definitely watching out for more upside after that bust through 883.

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    $BKX a=c at 35.95, currently 35.75

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    🙂 that sucked! heheh Guess Mole was not kidding about PAIN! ouch…

  • Keirsten

    Sold long scalps, and sitting in cash for now.

  • http://www.ambgtrading.com/ amgrant

    Move to 905 definitely in play. Careful with shorts.

  • disrespekt

    way the hell outside the upper bb on the 30m plus rsi reaching overbought

  • Keirsten

    Watching Big Blue. They've cleared resistance this morning and have earnings on Thurs. fwiw. Gap @ 104.73

  • http://www.ambgtrading.com/ amgrant

    They will press this to the max to the upside…I'm not shorting anymore until I see weakness.

  • Ghostdog

    I have to say that I feel vindicated that we got the rallyI was looking for albeit with a little grinding.. (and that silly indicator I created was actually right… ) Should see 900/905 and then most likely will top out and continue the move to 820 ish but of course will investigate it as it approaches that area.

    One more thought. I really cant see this thing spending a lot of time down at 820 so look for extreme volatility and silly governement intervention as a disticnt possibility. Good luck all.

  • http://readingtowin.blogspot.com/ Boris

    brutal short squeeze.
    ssc, we are back above 50% fib now.

  • ropey

    yeah i'm much more comfortable with usual spreads, IC's and calendars – i get those but the BF still messes with me, guess maybe a better approach is to build a BF in part rather than all in one go, the sad thing was i got the AAPL move spot on so i sat for 5 days and didn't really get anything out of it even though the theta was kicking in nicely. The one thing that irks me with TOS is the platform displays your P/F but when you close out it is always way less ( mark ) so even though the profit maybe 500$ you may only get 250-300$ etc…bloody annoying.

  • Douala

    ckeltner

    Check out the “two” shoulder on this chart. Is this what you were describing to Keirsten below?

    http://tinyurl.com/ns5gmj

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Hey, can I get some kudos here? You guys are so busy congratulating each other but I was the lone voice in the dark proposing a short squeeze today.

    Who's your daddy? 😉

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn
  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Of course nobody believed me – LOL 🙂

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    congrats but you were not alone, i've been calling for the mid 890s for a week

  • Keirsten

    Why you are Mole. Snort.

  • ckeltner

    Perfect, thanks. Not the sloping one that everyone has been in love with 🙂

  • Keirsten

    Hey- I've never received kudos for calling the shooting star clear back on June 11th. But nooooooooo. LOL

  • thelefteyeguy

    kudos to you 😛

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    congrats

  • thelefteyeguy

    you have to shamelessly ask for it 😛 (wink wink)

  • thelefteyeguy

    900 or 895…i didnt wait for 900…

  • itsgold

    Nibbling on some DEC SPY Puts here. Nom Nom Nom

  • Keirsten

    Thanks TheLeft- I don't really care to be honest, I'm just teasing Mole and Alpha. Just hope we can all make money by keeping our peepers open for different things we see. So far, we're good.

  • thelefteyeguy

    im teasing too…poking at Mole lol

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    keep an eye on the bearish wedge on the SPX

    http://www.screencast.com/users/alphahorn/folde

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    Good job Daddy! 🙂

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    Does anyone know the volume on this short squeeze?

  • http://stainlesssteelchicken.blogspot.com/ StainlessSteelChicken

    Yep. This nonsense is why I was waiting for confirmation from $TRAN and $COMPQ before going on a shorting spree. http://tinyurl.com/n5awah

    Financials skyrocket, Transports can barely get positive, indices somewhere in between. I'd post a link to “Land of Confusion” by Genesis if Genesis wasn't the worst band in the history of music.

    Sorry everyone that I haven't posted much lately — I just don't have much to say!

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    You didn't receive the fruit basked I sent you?

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Shameless is my middle name.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    See my update.

  • Keirsten

    No, but I did get that order from Fredericks of H. Thanks! 😛

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    last night on my blog I wrote about the correlation between a great long scalp and the RSI on the 30 SPX breaking above 50. Here is the updated chart I posted from last night. Now notice what happens after it touches 70!

    http://www.screencast.com/users/alphahorn/folde

    From my blog:
    But, before that happens, I believe there is money to be made on the long side for those agile enough to scalp a few longs Monday morning. Take a look at the second chart above, a 30 minute chart of the SPX and notice the correlation between breaks above 50 on the RSI 14 and the upward spikes in the SPX. Should the RSI 14 breach 50 Monday morning as I suspect it will, then it should be followed by a couple of hours of decent price appreciation, which correlates nicely with the proposed wave count.

    However, this is a short-term play and a great opportunity to add to shorts. I am playing this for the scalp, but my bias remains to the short side. More that anything, this move up will provide a great opportunity to position oneself for the subsequent and stronger move to the downside.

  • Keirsten

    scalping short, but only for a few candles.

  • Keirsten

    Absolutely Alpha.

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    It seems that they are buying the rumor on this tape and if any of the mega/large cap companies disappoint, and or have a less than optimistic outlook that may be our catalyst to the downside. 🙂

  • dollar

    20 day EMA on the XLF is 11.62 – XLF topped at 11.61 so far today

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    Is it just me or TOS having HUGE performance problems with new release?

    /CL completing TDSetup BUY daily today

  • marcopolo101520

    What a cheap setup!

    Whitney comes around 8am and licks the GSchop. Everybody is shocked! Classic setup. The GS will report great numbers tomorrow, so that Whitney will look like a great champ. Then she will tell another thing soon (stay hot in the eye of public) and that will be true too (whatever she says truth or lie). Public will believe now what Whitney says, the evidence is there! Fujisan while smart, was cheated here. Sorry Fujisan, not your fault, a big trap for many bears (so far).

    This rally was not warranted – I even wanted to ask Mole about this kind of “events” like CIT or GS earnings but I guess he's too busy to follow Lester's notes.
    Market Makers, if they can not use the fastest computers to cheat now they buy the blondest analyst and serve it early bird. sick!

  • http://outsidethe-cardboard-box.tumblr.com/ TomOfTheNorth

    Whitney is one of the few worth listening to / acting on. That said, GS (and Banking generally) has a chance to surpass Big Oil this quarter in being the most universally reviled company/industry if their numbers really do blow off the doors. So do they sandbag? Not likely but an interesting concept nonetheless. Record profits/ record bonuses are really going to piss people off. Can't wait for the inevitable Maxine Waters Show sure to follow….lol

    I was surprised Whitney had no calculated impact from muni & CRE deterioration (perhaps I missed that?). She's still on the consumer retrenchment theme…..

  • http://www.ambgtrading.com/ amgrant

    This is consolidation before next push up it seems.

  • disrespekt

    Vol looks ho-hum, nothing spectacular on the SPYs

  • http://stainlesssteelchicken.blogspot.com/ StainlessSteelChicken

    LOL, your comment reminds me of this comic I saw a few weeks ago at the Upright Citizens Brigade… http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5lCdsjseCJ0

  • http://www.genxantihero.blogspot.com LostIllini

    I may not get any prognosticating credit but I believe my small mountain of BAC Calls will help solace me….. ;o)

  • http://www.hotoptionbabe.com annamall

    thanks Dis! 🙂

  • http://www.ambgtrading.com/ amgrant

    Good call. Now give me your damn crystal ball.

  • Ghostdog

    Sorry Left Eye, Im more a marco guy then a technical guy as far as positioning. Im very bearish big picture and will turn bearsh most likely this week short term unless somehow the bulls get a strong close above 7/7
    s high. I looked at the last few days as an opp to write some options on open short postitions. Mole stole my words with the CNBC chuckleheads talking about the H/S… Just too much press makes me skittish… So, we just needed to clear out the neophytes with a rally here and it should resume shortly. I will throw out some techie indie info when I get some short term signals, like the last one that saw this rally…. as fake as it may be..

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    the head and shoulders neckline around 895 has proven to be impeneterable thus far

  • http://www.genxantihero.blogspot.com LostIllini

    I'm in need of a new victim this week, I've really enjoyed my BAC ride but I'm looking for a new sled. What's moving this week? Gold? something else?

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    It's turning into a big pain in the ass. Every time the market starts to move my system (MacBook Pro with 4GB of RAM) is starting to rev up the fan and I can barely navigate around.

    If anyone else is having problems please respond here as I will forward our issues to Tom Sosnoff.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Just a little bit higher – come on bulltarts – you can do it!

  • http://www.ambgtrading.com/ amgrant

    We've seen this type of action before, careful with shorts.

  • TraderJorge

    Go for it, Mole

    http://www.boston.com/bigpicture/2009/07/the_fe

    Best trading,

    Jorge

  • dollar

    volume petering out on the Goldman advance

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    ¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨
    ¨°º¤ø„¸ N E W „ø¤º°¨
    ¸„ø¤º°¨ P O S T “°º¤ø„¸
    ¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°º¤ø„¸

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Spoken like a true evil speculator 🙂

  • Guest

    Mole on the road today with my old 750k
    ram MBP running tos, etrade,blog, @ same time no problems.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    I'm the guy in picture 4 – pushing everyone.

  • pricey

    make that “Big Daddy”

  • faafa

    No fruit basket from me, just some good old STL! :0)

  • Osso

    NDX 1444 resistance….

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    It is freezing my laptop (2Gig ram 7200rpm hd 256meg video card 2gh processor with ONLY TOS running)

    and it totally kills my dual proc XEON with 64gig RAM – WTF
    and 10mbps cable does no good, neither 1000mbpr dsl pro does no good
    No matter what you tell them, they say “not our problem” and they prefer to ban people from their worthless ST chat instead of fixing the damn problem.
    Pardon my French – **** TOS

  • standard_and_poor

    Taking longer term momentum trades, I'll prepare a roadmap for tonight.

    ________________________________