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Welcome to the House of Pain
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Welcome to the House of Pain

by The MoleNovember 16, 2008

I’m not going to sugar coat it for my steel rats – this week is going to be ugly. If you thought last week was bad, better prepare yourself for market makers and institutional traders equipped with 20 foot long cattle prods, ruthlessly inflicting maximum pain on us huddled masses of hapless option traders.

Here is a rough visualization of what awaits us:

You have two choices for the looming week of misery: Either embrace the pain or run for cover in the form of cold hard cash. For there is no shame in hiding, as we are furry but intelligent creatures who know that munching on a piece of cheese from the comforts of a cushy front row seat sure beats getting body slammed by some blood hungry market maker bent on inflicting his quota of flesh wounds on option trading mail order chumps like you. But for the intrepid super rats among you, those equipped with grapefruit size chrome plated cohones, there just might be hope, as Evil Speculator will be your shining light, your unrelenting compass guiding you through the inhospitable terrains of expiration week. Maybe you come out bruised but alive – but please make sure to leave a proper note for your loved ones and best equip yourself with a some dog tags so that the NYSE will be able to identify your charred remains.

Anyway, enough with the pep talk, let’s go on with business:

Boy, this chart is getting messy. But right now we are bit in limbo, as there are various scenarios on the table that should be given similar probabilities, as a consolation some are less painful then others. I will talk about the really fun one, marked in green, a bit later – but let’s start with orange, which basically assumes that the old triangle actually concluded last week with a whimper of an {e} wave (triggered by the Chinese bailout announcement) and then proceeded to trace out a {i} of minor 5 down. Then we painted the notorious Thursday u-turn which was the beginning of an a,b,c correction that is expected to conclude around the 950 area this week. After that we should quickly push to the downside and complete minor 5 of intermediate (3) – the target area is difficult to project as of right now but it should be in the lower 700s.

The blue scenario is very interesting and I have added the alternate wave count in blue labels on the charts above and below. The thought here is that we traced out a large flat, which will be followed by what is referred to as a running flat by Elliotticians.

I’ve taken the liberty to draw some example wave patterns, so all this makes sense to you leeches. The first image shows a flat, which is a fancy term for a zigzag corrective wave that received a lot of trend resistance. The next image shows a variation of the theme, an expanded flat, which contains a price extreme beyond that of the preceding impulse wave. In expanded flats, wave B of the 3-3-5 pattern terminates beyond the starting level of wave A, and wave C ends more substantially beyond the ending level of wave A, shown for bear markets in the second image.

What we ware finding ourselves in (no matter which of the wave counts above you buy into) is called a sideways combination of at least two corrective patterns, which is also called a double three. This can be a zigzag followed by a triangle, a zigzag followed by a flat, or a flat followed by an expanded flat. The latter is what the blue scenario is based on and is simulated as a simplified wave count in the third drawing above. Let’s hope this makes it a bit more clear as I will be testing you leeches later this week. Anyone who fails will be thrown into the dungeon of doom, and remember that there is no butter in hell (look that up under Cold Comfort Farm).

Now on to the green scenario – which is the most fun as it would hurt the most bulltards out there. This assumes that we have painted a more vertical double three starting Thursday afternoon and ending Friday right before the drop. Looking at this slightly zoomed in chart, it’s clear how a move like this can be easily mistaken for a regular motive 5 wave correction followed by small retracement. The reason why we are considering this crazy scenario is that the assumed third wave of the long push up is a bit short. Let’s zoom in a bit more:

Aaaah, that’s better. Now, as you can see it’s easy to count this wave as a 1-2-3-4-5 motive wave which ended on Thursday at the closing bell. But if you look carefully it becomes clear that the third wave is actually the shortest of them all, and that violates Elliott Wave rules. The 3rd can never be shortest – it can be shorter than either 1 or 5, but it needs to be longer than one of them. So, the conclusion is that something else is going on here, which leads us to the green scenario. Now, that you understand what a double three is, you may realize why it is possible (but not assured in any fashion) that wave {ii} of minor 5 may have concluded on Friday afternoon. Of course the mouth breathers out there see only a small correction and expect the rally to continue pushing upwards. Maybe they’re right, which would confirm the blue scenario but if we keep dropping on Monday then you’ll know what’s up.

The in between scenario is marked as orange, as it assumes we’re going up a bit more and then plunge. And in case you wonder, at this time there is no evidence to support the notion that we have finalized wave (3) and are already inside intermediate wave (4). There simply has been no capitulation on the parts of the bulls – despite harrowing negative breadth on Wednesday and early Thursday, bullish sentiment has been steady.

Need proof? Let’s take a look at the McClellan (a medium term sentiment indicator), which is currently at -20. Call me ueber-bearish, but this simply does not look like a capitulation to me. Quite frankly, we haven’t seen enough blood letting on the part of the bulls just yet.

Also, the spread between the Moody’s BAA and TYX yields is still stuck around the 5 point mark – this is not exactly what I would expect to see at the onset of intermediate (4), which – to make that clear – will be a major multi-month corrective wave to the upside (or at least sideways).

The Baltic Dry Index is still flat as a flounder – this is bad, ladies and rats. Nothing is getting shipped and to get an idea of the grave implications of basic materials rotting in harbors here’s a great write up on the situation by Yves Smith. By the way, one of my favorite sites – the kid is extremely bright and works day and night to roll over the rocks under which the gnomes are hiding from sunlight. In any case, what you as traders should care about is that credit remains frozen.

Still not convinced? Tough crowd! Well, take a look at our old friend, the TED spread (difference between 3-month LIBOR and 3-month treasury yield). It’s pointing to the upside again and the permabulls better sacrifice a goat to make sure that this thing doesn’t continue on its current trajectory.

Some of you might remember the Nova/Ursa ratio I mentioned last week. We are still in distinct bullish territory – the thick line is the ratio and the thin one is the OEX.

A final piece of evidence in terms of bullish sentiment is a weekly chart of the CBOE Options Put/Call Ratio Index. Right now we’re hovering around the 1.0 level which is basically neutral. Again, I don’t see any fear here, which again is a strong indication that wave (3) has not concluded just yet.

I will touch on Gold once I see a clearer pattern – right now it’s a bit all over the place and it seems it simply follows the market. Keep an eye on crude as we hit 56 on Friday. OPEC has already started the proverbial ‘production cut’ saber rattling – many of those cats must be selling the black gold at production cost right now. I would expect a floor in crude prices fairly soon, so be careful with anything in the energy sector. I saw some of you guys posting about refineries – you don’t want to be long those guys when crude starts pushing upwards again.

I actually wanted to post a DXY (Dollar index) chart but Prophet is not cooperating – I really hope those constant occasional (ahem) data problems will be fixed at some point. In any case – the buck is going up, bank on it – minimum target is around 90, maybe even higher.

Alright, I think I have done enough damage for today – enjoy your evening and don’t be shy with the comments. If you have nothing better to do check out Denninger’s new vid – he really cracks me up – reminds me of a cat that just caught a mouse:

Cheers!


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at various social media waterholes below.
  • GKM

    My primary is an ending diagonal triangle which generally fits well with all your great points but I have it as a 3-3-3-3-3.

  • molecool

    Well, if correctly understand the scenario you are referring to, what disturbs is that it would be an expanding ending diagonal which according to Prechter has occurred exactly once in known market history.

  • tradingmom

    And when was that? I like to know these things.

  • Ukla the Mokk

    Only because I'll need to see more than one day's upside to enter in with some calls, here is what I'll be watching for put plays Monday.
    APC – http://screencast.com/t/psQdDanLPGj
    GILD – http://screencast.com/t/K2PkIn5f
    GOLD – http://screencast.com/t/3QNke3lx
    V – http://screencast.com/t/JYOSV9mO
    XOM – http://screencast.com/t/wBOvz8dpJ5

    On a side note, I have toyed with the idea of buying shares of GM lately. Today on SOH, TK threw it out there as an idea. I may dabble either in buying stock or selling a naked put or two. In the spirit of brevity, I'll debate or share my thoughts on that in another post if anyone is interested.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Be7Og9Gc_KY

  • gagelle

    Thanks molecool. The best line is “The Baltic Dry Index is still flat as a flounder – this is bad, ladies and rats.”

  • malusDiaz

    ./bow
    ./thank

    As always, You rock!

  • C.C. Rider

    Good job mole! I'm going with orange door number one. Logically, on an expiration week it would make the most sense. If we blow down thru 850 on the S&P, I would favor the orange scenario and get short pronto.

  • GKM

    Mole, thanks for the reply. I'm not expecting it to be an expanding ending diagonal. I'm simply expecting a regular ending diagonal triangle (to whipsaw the crap out of everyone) as it falls to an objective of 782, 731 or 624 with the latter two being most likely. Is there something about my statement that can be taken for implying an expanding ending diagonal triangle?

  • GoodKing

    Wow, thanks you for all the work that you have posted here. I know you didn't have to do anything, but choose to take your time and detailed all the different scenarios to come. I know all that work must have taken a long time to prep so again…. THANKS….

    May the trading Gods bless you guys with $$$ or what ever you guys wish for…

  • gagelle

    I'd be interested, Ukla, although I may become one of those rats sitting on the sidelines nibbling on a piece of cheese.
    Yen is up on Globex.

  • molecool

    The weekend report usually takes me 4-5 hours – glad you find value in it.

  • angus_mc

    “those equipped with grapefruit size chrome plated cohones”

    I love your poetry:)

    wonderful charts and insights as always, thank you!

  • fuzzygreysocks

    Working on the Grand Unification Theory of various techniques (AKA: FrankenChart):
    http://i101.photobucket.com/albums/m47/fuzzygre
    http://i101.photobucket.com/albums/m47/fuzzygre

  • Ukla the Mokk

    +1 for many rightfully deserved reasons.

  • Gary_L

    I've been leaning towards the orange scenario all weekend, but OpEx kinda makes it hard to squeeze in this week. For the Orange ABC to play out, we'll have to stay under 951.91. That's not much room given the decidedly upsidedly nature of OpEx week.

    Now that green scenario has some possibilities for the first part of the week. We could easily jam down hard Mon-Tues, and still have time for the MM's and hedgies to play their games.

    I'm holding some Dec. GOOG and FSLR puts, and using the rest of my cash for intraday opportunities.

  • T.B. Aurelius

    I am truly impressed with sheer amount of effort and dedication ye Evil twins are putting in….
    Gratitude….

    But talk is cheap, I want to show my appreciation with action…

    I looked into my 2 balls and did find a business, that will go beyond thriving….NTRI of 12st. century…

    “TELE-EVANGELISM.”

    Please let me know if find any church traded in public with fear mongering, gerry curl dripping, polyester suit wearing, gold toothed preacher CEO.
    It would be a better OMEN if the name of the church contains “End”, End of the day”, “Last days”, “Revelation”, Last judgment”…etc…

    I must warn you though, because there so many of them out there you probably have to weed them out quite a bit…..

  • Ukla the Mokk

    I'm really keeping Tom's rule #6 in mind for expiration week.
    Also, hump day – the day Tom says usually has the wildest swings – is also the release day of the FOMC meeting minutes…for whatever it's worth.
    GM, although is a hugely poorly managed company, will not go under IMHO. I mean, they might file for bankruptcy and they might tank from $3, but LEH and BSC aren't even recognized symbols anymore. I do not believe that GM will soon become an unrecognized symbol. $3 is insanely cheap and it moves with about a 40% ATR…that's like the SPY moving 35 points per day on average. So I may buy 100 shares and set an OCO to either sell out at a $1 profit (e.g. $100 total) or buy 100 more shares if it goes down and then adjust my GTC for profit taking. Just an idea that I still have to mess with.
    And like I said, the other alternative is to sell a naked put. But if GM does decide to go up, then you'll miss out on serious % profits.
    There are many downsides to this, but it's all just an idea. I still have to weight the pros and cons.

  • http://www.slopeofhope.com Tim Knight

    I actually wanted to post a DXY (Dollar index) chart but Prophet is not cooperating – I really hope those constant data problems will be fixed at some point.

    Ummm, I don't think we've EVER had the DXY (although I wish we did). And shame on you for “constant” data problems reference, molecool! My guys have been busting their humps on the data platform, and last week we had a huge improvement…………and another big one forthcoming this month. Keep the faith.

  • molecool

    It's alllliiiiiive, it's alllliiiiiivve!!!

  • molecool

    That's what you call tough love, Tim :-)

    Yeah, I love to complain, whatcha gonna do. Just FYI – AFAIK they pulled that symbol a month ago but never put it back. Not sure why not – perhaps you can do some digging? I distinctly remember posting DXY charts a while back…

    Anyway, keeping the faith – couldn't imagine life without Prophet charts – that would be painful.

  • molecool

    Do we have Russian visitors here? Need some intel on this:

    http://screencast.com/t/gOZ1mERhkI

  • molecool

    There – I toned it down a little, please just don't pull my data feed again – I'll never complain again, I promise….

    😛

  • Tom

    Mole, thank you for your generosity, for your time and care… and for actually having sufficiently grasped Elliott to be worth a hearing. Well done. May the gods be caught looking the other way when you trade.

    With respect to expectations for “Y” in case of complex flat, FWIW, the development so far may suggest rather a “running” double. I do recognize the graph was primarily to illustrate shape and this is not intended as criticism but as a contribution to the discussion. You are right to elevate the odds of a complex correction as one is overdue.

  • angus_mc

    molecool

    two questions:

    (1) how can you track Moody’s BAA and TYX? (I know you've said you can only track this EOD, but I can't even find EOD data …)

    (2) at what level the Nova / Ursa indicator indicates way too many bears and at what level too many bulls?

    thanks!

    p.s. your work really rocks! have a great and profitable week!

  • phoneymoney

    Regarding GM, it's really just a roll of the dice as to what the stock price will do in the short term. Yes, it could go up. But the company is already bankrupt — they don't even make enough money to pay the interest on their current debt. The real value of the stock is currently zero. An infusion of cash from the gov't (you and me) will simply prolong the time it takes to reach its real value.

    A bankrupt GM does not mean the end of the auto industry. It means the end of GM management of that portion of the auto industry, and allows for other successful companies to pick up the pieces. Believe me, that's not the way I would have wanted it to turn out, but to hope for any other outcome is about 20 years too late.

  • http://gemstowear.etsy.com Jan

    molecool

    thanks for all the work you put into these charts. i have learned so much from you and berk these past few months. you really go all out with your explanations and it is much appreciated. you guys really share the wealth.

    Jan

  • Dimitry

    From Russian : This strategy ( go short ) blandly works on Mondays for two month already

  • molecool

    Spasiba Dimitry.

  • molecool

    No problem Tom, I welcome input. There are so many scenarios on the table right now you need a machete to cut through it. Feel free to share a chart with your own analysis and wave count – we are always open to constructive criticism. After all, the day you get married to your own analysis is the day the market takes you out to the woodshed.

  • woodboy

    $DXY definitely used to be on there until relatively recently–I used it frequently. Not sure where it went.

  • Ukla the Mokk

    I think beanieville gets his stock advice from this guy…(at 0:57)

    http://www.funnyordie.com/videos/0b7d3a2651/mas

  • gagelle

    Thanks Ukla. I have to think about it also. The thing I worry about most is that any so called bailout will screw the common stock holders. There seems to be so much public outrage against spending more money, and the republicans are blocking the money needed for a rescue, with no thought of the repercussions to the economy. Although there still will be a thriving parts industry for years to come due to the number of GM vehicles out there. But there could be a short term pop in the stock. I believe C is a much safer bet, although more expensive, as the Fed won't let them go, in my opinion.

  • Ukla the Mokk

    GM has not had an “up” day in 12 sessions. Might almost be an equally valid play to short it instead of buy it…IF it's worth trading.

  • Ukla the Mokk

    Any way you slice it, GM might just be too risky of a trade at these prices until it starts to show a little direction stability.

  • gagelle

    Globex is doing nothing, as if to further torture us. The Yen is still up, but not by as much as before. Don't know what effect Japan's official announcement that they're in a recession will do. They were considered the strongest economy. I would be curious to know if Berk favors the green line scenario.

  • green

    I speak Russian, first I want to say thanks for all your hard work
    and 2nd. the title of that is that they are in shock that for past 2 month every Monday short has been working

  • gagelle

    Yea, I agree.

  • Duuuuuude

    DXY was available up until 6 weeks or so. Give UUP a try.

  • gagelle

    Thanks for the Denniger video, molecool.. I have two important things to do tonight: watch the new Family Guy and American Dad with my teenage son. We bond over sarcasm, vulgarity and bitter irony.

  • GEO

    You must be a fund manager ! It would be a shame for each of us to let GM fail!

  • ZigZag

    The zigzag pattern that I've been trading signaled the start of the 3 down on Friday. I have the same pattern on the Dow and $NDX..

    http://tinyurl.com/583mcp

  • Ukla the Mokk

    Cool video from Shadowtrader on setting up market internals using TOS charts. The only inaccuracy is that TOS charts does have $TRIN/Q. Here is my snapshot…(sorry, it's big)

    http://screencast.com/t/ostHXkTE

  • phoneymoney

    The GM management has already let GM fail. Unfortunately, I can't change that.

    Here in the Midwest the livelihood of many of my neighbors is integrally connected to GM — either as a direct employee of the company, a retiree, a parts supplier, or something else. They are fine people, and GM's demise cannot be laid at their feet. The management of GM, however, has been arrogant, self-serving, slow to respond to market realities, and has mismanaged the company's finances.

    Like Studebaker, Rambler, Nash — even the old Stutz Bearcat — companies that do not allocate capital wisely will eventually be taken over by others or go belly up. That is not a disaster, that's healthy.

    There is a vast storehouse of experience and expertise in the American auto industry. The demand for automobiles will not go to zero. The engineers, designers, managers, assembly plant operators and others deserve to work for a company that will ensure a competitive future. That is not GM. And that is truly sad, but real.

    Just my opinion.

  • toad37

    Awesome report Mole. Many thanks for the time you and Berk put into running this site… Here is to a good week. Cheers Mate.
    Toad

  • Q

    Hey man, that's actually is the post from my blog inspired by yours:)
    This strategy (short on Monday and go away) worked perfectly until they started to propose bailouts, stimulus and other crap over the weekends.
    BTW, I'm learning a lot from your blog, please, keep it up!

  • http://www.myspace.com/181419967 JZT_CHIL

    Per Tim on his newly created SOH page “favorite_trading_sites” – about Evil Speculator: “Terrific stuff.”

  • http://www.myspace.com/181419967 JZT_CHIL

    As of this moment, it looks like we'll go for the Green… would like the Blue scenario to play out though.

  • http://www.retracementlevels.com 2SWTrading

    Awesome Post, Mole.

    You guys are really miles away beyond the other blogs, in terms of depth of market analysis.

    Kudos.

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    The problem with the diagonal theory, as Mole pointed out, is when you start connecting the points, the lines do not converge, they diverge. I.E. expanding ending diagonal (I doubt it), expanding triangle in the [Y] wave, or no diagonal/triangle at all…

    Only time will tell.

    Skål!

  • T.B. Aurelius

    I am start shedding my puts one by one…
    I will be neutral only trading 3x ETFs only…
    In choppy markets, less items I trade, less confused I will be…
    Simple is….Good.

  • T.B. Aurelius

    Another bear market rally is due…….sooner than later…..I reckon…..
    Ultra short term trade seems to be prudent….

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    Looks like an early morning dump

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    Anyone have the steel balls to short down here? I don't

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    xlf is getting killed. It keeps making new lows

  • T.B. Aurelius

    If the market does not recover within the first hour….
    It is likely to turn into a steady bleed all day…
    I am holding onto the puts a little longer…

  • http://www.blog.donnaklinenow.com dkpa
  • DARKTHIRTY

    Time to close the gap?

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    I am a buyer down here.

  • Erikd

    long ES at 858 with target at 890. day trade

  • Gumbo YaYa

    Wow. What happened to BIDU? The news I am reading doesn't seem relevant enough to warrant a -16% drop out of the gate.

  • de3600

    Peanut size

  • Gumbo YaYa

    JPY & oil are screaming higher. VIX is falling as well. Treasuries aren't confirming yet & XLF is still lagging, but these may be early short term intraday bullish signals.

  • T.B. Aurelius

    Good luck….
    If the market holds I will be one soon….

  • StoneDog

    Somebody mentioned UTHR over at SOH, Dear God! is all i can think.

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    Folks keep your eyes on the XLF. Its back to its lows again

  • T.B. Aurelius

    Gotta watch VIX 67…
    If it find a footing there and start moving up….Yikes…..
    “Enter the Panic.” Starring “Bruised Lee.”

  • Gumbo YaYa

    Everything looks 'flat' & mixed signals. Very neutral so far with very little commitment either way. Coin toss….

  • Gumbo YaYa

    Ukla,

    I find those internals very helpful when taking short term trades, however, I set it up just a little differently. Where as the Shadowtrader & you 'compare' adv with dec, I create one line by setting up $ADVN-$DECN as one symbol. I do this for each box (NYSE & NASDAQ). I just find it easier to read. See attached.

    http://www.screencast.com/t/PNushXGE

  • T.B. Aurelius

    Oh boy….
    I am bearish…

  • Gumbo YaYa

    It's looking that way…

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    Look out below. Looks like we are on the green line senario on Moles chart.

  • Erikd

    stopped out at ES 850

  • Gumbo YaYa

    Berk, I tried to find it in previous posts, but couldn't. Would you mind posting your list of core stocks you track which have the larger ATR's you use for day trading? Thanks in advance.

  • molecool

    Erik – you might want to look at those retracement levels. Especially if you are trading the futures.

  • Gumbo YaYa

    It feels like we are going to get a lot of head fakes today in both directions, which means you will need to be ULTRA short term trading, if at all, based on what I am seeing so far.

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    Mr Vix is not really strong considering market conditions. It seems it can't get in the low 70's

  • T.B. Aurelius

    I have trimmed the number of positions and increased exposures of puts on overall weight.

  • Gumbo YaYa

    Here's a great tune to listen to while we watch the markets do its thing. Classic LA (Louisiana) boy with some Southern soul.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EcLUIU2-uv8

  • T.B. Aurelius

    Hey Gumbo…
    My sentiment exactly…
    But…if you get too close to the action.., you get swept up into the current…
    I am in for a day to day duration…not too short, not too long…
    Best of luck to yaya…

  • T.B. Aurelius

    VIX has to break to either direction before a clear signal is shown…

  • Gumbo YaYa

    All 'non-index' indicators are stuck in a consolidation range, except for oil, which has broken to the upside. That's the reason I felt it may be a leading indicator. Not feeling a direction until we get more confirmation from the others (JPY, treasuries, VIX, XLF, etc). Breadth is weak & has been right around parity this whole session so far. Feels like a strong lack of commitment so far.

    I'm watching VIX 70-65 as the 'range.' Is that what you are tracking on as well?

  • T.B. Aurelius

    I am keep getting trail stopped out…
    Bounce must be at work…

  • T.B. Aurelius

    That is the only thing I am watching…
    I am like Jack Nicholson at the end of “One flew over the cuckoo's nest.”

  • T.B. Aurelius

    That is the only thing I am watching…
    I am like Jack Nicholson at the end of “One flew over the cuckoo's nest.”

  • T.B. Aurelius

    Yes…
    TECH is bounce ready…

  • de3600

    I happen to agree

  • Growler

    good call….i'm pairs trading today…..scalping where i can….

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    XLF drops to a new low..What else is new

  • GKM

    Thanks Berk. I appreciate the clarification. I was thinking something along the lines of this http://www.flickr.com/photos/9323243@N07/303855… as wave 5 of 3.

  • Gumbo YaYa

    Treasuries breaking out of consolidation ascending triangle to new highs = bearish.

    Oil pulling back, but looks just like a bullish retest. Everything else is still in its range. Still very mixed, but financials are *terrible* which makes me feel like any rally will be squashed. A/D lines & volume breadth still mixed to flat. Too many cross currents for me so far…

  • Erikd

    re enrered long ES 858 target 890

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    Well coach i'm going to sit back down on the bench. I'm still long.

  • C.C. Rider

    Held my nose and went long for a bounce.

    http://www.nasdaq.com/aspxcontent/options2.aspx

  • de3600

    Im stll long if some one farts the right way the market will move at this point

  • fred

    Hey Gumbo, I watching the 10 year treasury note, $tnx.x.

    It has been going down since 10 :00 am, what Treasuries are you watching? Just curious, thanks

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    With you on that. I am not putting anymore trades on. i think this market is going to tank. I hope it does. Get it over with.Tired of these games.

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    Gotcha. If you still believe the diagonal is in the very early stages of formation, you are fine to assume an ending diagonal. I thought you were trying to get this from the already established reversal points. In which case, we are expanding.

    Skål!

  • Gumbo YaYa

    /ZN Treasury futures (price not yield). TNX is the yield. They are inversely correlated. When I say price is going up, you should be seeing your yield go down. Means the same thing, just a different data presentation.

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    Mark Cuban charged insider trading by SEC

  • Erikd

    levels are in the same area as pivots utilized. with odds. thanks for the reco

  • de3600

    Do we bounce again off 850 on the s and p

  • fred

    Thanks, I did not realize tnx was the yield!! Its currently at 36.92 on prophetcharts…I am confused by that number, will have to figure this out later.

  • Gumbo YaYa

    Again, more mixed signals. The A/D lines for NYSE & NASDAQ are making higher highs & higher lows intraday. No consistency in this market right now = pound your account into mush. 'Caution & cash' are today's key words.

  • Gumbo YaYa

    Yield = 3.692%. It's a factor of 10 on the chart to give it some depth.

  • fred

    Oh, I feel silly, thanks for the help.

    P.s I don't have the gold package on prophet so can't get /ZN non-delayed.

  • lazydogbkk

    11:40:46 Comment Now I'm starting to see many intraday or 2 day head & shoulders bottoming type patterns on the 1 min charts …harry boxer

  • C.C. Rider

    What's up! Your face pic so intrigues me. No worries, I'm harmless, over 50, J/K!

  • lazydogbkk

    11:43:24 Comment Folks, no getting around it, the early patterns are bearish in implication & could result in the indices testing lower levels later today

    …he aggravates me sometimes

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    Here comes the rally

  • kokopelli

    On SPY, can't the 92 level be viewed as a “triple resistance point” — and the fourth time, if it breaks, would create a large move?

  • de3600

    I just said the same thing

  • kokopelli

    Thanks.

  • Gumbo YaYa

    ES Futures breaking over daily highs, but a close on the 30m chart over ES 874 would confirm a short term double bottom with a 900 target price. This 30m period is the largest range of the day & it's bullish. A/D lines about to make new daily highs with the breadth breaking 0.

    VIX making new daily lows, however, XLF needs to bust its $12.60 resistance line for confirmation of continued upside & the indexes need to clear their resistance lines at Friday's lows before we can call it more than a retest.

    Direction maybe starting to show itself. Looking for just a little more confirmation to initiate trades, but starting my scans.

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    Mole has been quite.

  • http://www.myspace.com/181419967 JZT_CHIL

    “Tired of these games”… Big House, are you talking to your girlfriend?! ;D

    My gosh, my positions are slowpokers! And flip-floppers!

  • Growler

    he's usually a pretty smart guy. let's see what shakes out.

  • Gumbo YaYa

    Maybe he knew this was going to be a choppy day & overslept.

  • T.B. Aurelius

    Someone call the paramedics!
    Bidu is having a heart attack!!

  • molecool

    Quite what?

  • de3600

    tts getting smashed wondering to buy calls at the end of the day

  • T.B. Aurelius

    I am as flat as can be….and gonna stay there…

  • kokopelli

    Perhaps he mis-typed “quiet”…

  • molecool

    You think? 😉

  • molecool

    CLEAN CUPS!

  • http://www.myspace.com/181419967 JZT_CHIL

    Wow… looks like targeting 40 pt fall.

  • T.B. Aurelius

    High class humor….+1.

  • T.B. Aurelius

    Another+1, suits my taste….a little more sarcasm please~

  • http://www.myspace.com/181419967 JZT_CHIL

    We knew you were just plotting the next evil schemes for your steel rats… like last Friday. ;D

  • OttoPiloto

    Sites getting better all the time. Thanks for posting the retracement levels.

  • dzz

    “I will touch on Gold once I see a clearer pattern”
    Close to a short position as is the market!

  • http://z-stock.blogspot.com/ zstock

    PPI report on Tuesday should kill it–GLD
    econ calendar link
    http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_OB1VqhTEIHA/SSHIC9Vvi

  • Ukla the Mokk

    Much easier…I may switch mine up.  Thanks!

  • http://www.myspace.com/181419967 JZT_CHIL

    No worries ZMan, I'm 40 :-p

    If you have a MySpace account, you can look at my pics there, so you're not wondering how I really look like… not that I'm that pretty or anything.
    My avatars are my actual & recent pics… though wish I could put a face to you & everyone else here we chat with everyday. ;-D
    So I'd rather retain the 'mystery' as well. Lol.
    L

  • JZT_CHIL

    No worries ZMan, I'm 40 :-p

    If you have a MySpace account, you can check out my pics there, so you're not wondering how I really look like… not that I'm that pretty or anything.
    My avatars are my actual & recent pics… though wish I could put a face to you & everyone else here we chat with everyday. ;-D
    So I'd rather retain the 'mystery' as well. Lol.
    L