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Welcome To Weimar
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Welcome To Weimar

by The MoleJuly 18, 2017

There doesn’t seem to be any bottom for the Dollar right now. Suffice it to say that I am not amused and the way this is going I’ll have to raise my Gold subscriptions from $49 to $49,000 by the end of the summer. Better lock in that low rate before we hit hyperinflation and wind up shopping with wheelbarrows full of credit cards! Anyway, if you’re elated about your long positions in pretty much anything but Dollar denominated FX pairs right now then think again, because all you’re really doing is to offset what you are rapidly losing in purchasing power.

2017-07-18_spoos

Even equities seem to be able to catch a bid right now, which puts the E-Mini in a possible trend configuration. What I’m waiting for right now is a little correction followed by the formation of a spike low. If things continue to look dire for the Dollar, especially after Draghi’s speech on Thursday, then this will most likely be the money trade throughout the remainder of this summer.

2017-07-18_gold_LT

Before we get to the campaigns I wanted to point your attention the long term perspective on gold, which is starting to look pretty interesting. This could either turn into the last kiss goodbye setup of the year – or gold is ready to squeeze a boatload of shorts in the not so distant future. For the former scenario I need to see weakness here for a day or two which produces a spike high on the daily and perhaps even a retest. For the latter we need a push higher followed by a retest of the 100-week SMA. Just entering here on a hunch is possible if you are equipped with a crystal ball of course 😉

2017-07-18_corn_update

I posted the corn setup for everyone yesterday and I hope you took it as it seems to be taking off. Our stop is now trailing a bit below the recent spike low. Keep it loose however as we’ve got a ton of volatility here obviously.

2017-07-18_soybeans_update

Soybeans was another entry (for the subs) and it’s looking good after our desired entry range was snagged. A bit too early to advance our stop but if it can make it above its 100-hour SMA then we should be in good shape.

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About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at various social media waterholes below.
  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    @Julie figured out how to post charts – unfortunately we were all gone already! 😉

    BTW, do you really need all those indicators? My view is that if you draw enough lines on a chart, something’s going to line up. Which of course means it’s only meaningful post facto.

  • BTrader

    Mole, on GC can you provide a little more detail in terms of areas you are looking at for the 2 scenarios?

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    No worries – when it starts to coalesce I’ll be sure to post it. Right now we need to see how price responds over the coming days.

  • BTrader

    I am watching it closely as well.

  • Acquired Assets

    Someone from the Fed is going to have to come out and defend the dollar soon. Tax cuts are now in real jeopardy, as well. I wondered what the catalyst for a 9-11% pullback that every Elliot chart is screaming about was going to be

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Many years ago, I wondered how could restaurants afford so many high priced displays for their menu items? Aren’t margins thin in the fast food industry?

    http://www.sam-thehandyman.com/photos/undefined/Wendy%27s%20DDO%20menu%20board%20installation.jpg

    Weimar is the answer to the question. Prices updated instantly.
    -GG

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Mark Shinnick

    $ near some local support; I’m not quite as bearish on it technically. If we buy Big State theory, a weak $ fully supports Trump.

  • Billabong

    PMs are tricky with one foot in the $ move and the other in a continuious futures wash, rinse and repeat cycle (until they aren’t). Mole always advises when the time is right…

  • ridingwaves

    its looks as 2 mine workers are now bullish…inside traders…..

  • BobbyLow

    Morning folks. I’ve been doing a partial remodeling project at my house and wanted to check in before I get back to work. It seems like my “Honey Do” list has been expanding everyday but should be complete in the next few days. :) I hope . . .

    On the trading front, I picked up a long Gold position via UGLD on Friday. I mentioned on Friday that I would probably go long if the gap up held. Price had been creeping up off of the July 10th low and Friday’s gap in price was enough for me to hold my nose and go long. We’ll see if this move has any legs but so far so good.

  • Billabong

    Nice chart … GDX gave me a buy signal yesterday but no joy yet on GDXJ … large cap / tier one first to move.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    I’m in no rush. looking at the weekly.. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/dbe71a67f54c217bd08fc78d5d85796947a22ee8a648301af75fa8d4dd8106e4.png
    This sector needs to PROVE itself. period.

  • Billabong

    Another sector under pressure is money center banking … across the board sell signals this morning.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    I hate the Honey Do’s.

  • ridingwaves

    Honey don’ts are much worse

  • almez

    I took the long bonds suggestion from yesterday :)

  • Julie
  • ridingwaves

    What about using the $hui instead….?

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Julie

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/a24d08662040966934f83b33b625cfbd245ba5fcf5867682b44164dece36bd8e.jpg GDX Possible targets are the 8 conversion line and 21 baseline of the ichimoku cloud
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    good Question.

    I’m no expert, but it’s all correlated.
    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p70684466833

  • Julie

    YUP !
    JULIE

  • Mark Shinnick

    “Are you finished yet?” ;/

  • ridingwaves

    definitely correlated, the lag In the HUI might provide some entry exit differences

  • Julie

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/d6f8f319421c180ecf5b3b042b08d8843156092e84b2ae9e2a11b51691a3b80e.jpg USO going up into it’s 55 ema and lower boundary of it’s daily ichimoku cloud. As mentioned on the previous thread strong support exists 9.41. Stocks in bearish trends RSI at 60 is important EOD strong possibility I will be shorting CAT per chart previous thread EVERYONE HAVE A GREAT DAY !
    JULIE

  • ridingwaves

    Honey, Don’t go to the stripper club after golf with your buddies…

  • Ronebadger

    My wife uses a lot of 4-letter words…like…stop, don’t and no-no…

  • Julie

    Indicators It is imo valuable to know if a stock or index is overbought or oversold. GLD the 3 and 6 ema crossovers have worked for a very long time. I am long GLD per post on previous thread and doing very well
    JULIE

  • Mark Shinnick
  • ridingwaves

    would think the indexes follow Europe lower in the afternoon….
    but thinking is a skewed action…

  • kudra

    you out of AVEO? That hit $3 and sold off for 4 days now.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I aim to please :-)

  • Ag Coyote

    Gas 1.799 87oct NW Austin, TX

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III
  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Signal range larger than yesterday but still small historically.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Finally got out of the gate today :-)

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Ouch…

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Whatever works for you I guess. You and GoldGerb are going to get along just fine.

  • LMFAO

    Loan Demand Collapsing…
    Auto, Business, Real-Estate, Credit Card Debt, and Money Supply
    Source: WSJ
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/5f86ed7487d1bf02fe3d8fae4ac090baa4787a78ca75c26486ab6cf38174a87d.png

  • Julie

    MOLE LMFAO below is the TROLL !
    JULIE

  • ridingwaves

    1/2 hit trailing stop…looking hard at reentering soon….there was a 60 day window btwn committee approval and CE approval where the big boys were going to make retail sweat by getting in lower….so far going as planned…CYTR is not and I need to re-look at this symbol….

    you should buy into ACRX….start with 500 shares…just warming up, I got a 1000 at 2.40 on Friday and its starting off nicely…

    ridingwaves Mark Shinnick 4 days ago
    yes, my stop is .520
    someone is accumulating ACRX here…buying in 2.20-2.45 range… a bit early for bigger move and resistance at 3.05 area.
    I’m scaling in

  • Ag Coyote

    Yes… The above post made by the Chief Troll aka vitreolic condescending sociopath with Asperger’s and OCD. Never met a blog he didn’t troll.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Ok…so it begins with a legitimately interesting chart with a absurd headline.

  • ridingwaves

    Post fed graphs, not ws journal coloring contests…

    Could be taking a 90’s style shallow dip, next read will be telling…the little bounce was important, recession lead indicator…. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/b546a96443840431f379f691a096127ff10ee432f70feb3de305beae5add8f64.png

  • Julie

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/8d503593cc7f2a01b276b051d82b14db0e892047792aa826a4a1be4f068759dc.jpg F nice bullish rounded bottom. Looking for a pullback to strong support at 11.42. 11.45 is the 8 conversion line and 11.38 is the 21 baseline of the ichimoku cloud. Notice the 233 ema right up into it. THANKS MOLE !
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Julie

    Shorting CAT into the close tight stop
    JULIE

  • Ag Coyote
  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    @Gerbil_Gold:disqus – I finally managed to advance you to a moderator. About time 😉

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    @markshinnick:disqus – you are now a moderator – congrats. Wield your new super powers wisely.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    @bhbgrouptrader:disqus Wow you’ve been posting here for seven years plus – moderator as well.

  • BTrader

    sir yes sir! Thanks Mole!

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    all good things come to those who wait

  • Julie

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/cdedd7762d0190f2973f745e38152a44bcb5fb49fe0b05ab8696a78382b32765.jpg EEM pulls back to it’s daily 55 ema and upper boundary of the ichimoku cloud. Previous pullback to same foreshadowed a nice bounce.A gap up over 41 resistance in what is called a River Theory. Volume and MACD (momentum) confirming present bounce. Everyone Have A Great Evening
    JULIE

  • Julie

    Miss type 42 not 41. The consolidation led to a MACD centerline test and relieving an overbought condition . An excellent setup for a continued advance
    JULIE

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I had to figure out how to properly add your actual username – what a pain… sorry it took so long.

  • https://scottphillipstrading.com/trade-setup Scott Phillips

    What Mole is trying to say is that having more than one indicator which is a derivative of price is generally a mistake. What happens is that since most indicators (except for market internals, zero, atr, bollinger bandwidth, a few others) are derivatives of price, then they are strongly correlated.

    So you think “A HA!” indicators are lining up, but often we fool ourselves.

    If you like indicators best to use one that’s related to market internals like adv-decline, one thats related to volatility and one only overbought-oversold type one.

    That way we avoid confirmation bias. Of course, you seem to be a discretionary type chart reading trader, and most traders like that can improve by taking ALL the indicators off the chart.

    If you take the indicators off, inside a short time your brain will subconsciously pick up on all the things the indicators were telling you.

    And without the clutter the real story the charts tell becomes much clearer :-)

  • Julie

    I use ADV/DEC and UPV/DNV on a 30 min chart for the indices. I also look for pattern recognition such as the 3 and 6 ema’s cossover GLD. Quite often the position of the MACD exemplifies overbought and oversold areas as does a PMO. Thank You Scott for your input
    JULIE

  • https://scottphillipstrading.com/trade-setup Scott Phillips

    Welcome. Just understand that MA crossovers are an edge, but not how you think. Crossovers work 25-28% of the time depending on timeframe (I know it looks like more than that when we see a chart, but our eyes lie to us). They are an edge because of the fat tail distribution of trends, where a small percentage of the time you get a massive move. But as a predictive mechanism they are just plain wrong.

    As for the macd – very useful for system building, you can put objective rules around it. Zero predictive value.

  • Julie

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/e5dd82c6eabec7d1e8bec5087337a5c96fbe21c8577b58e7cc0cebf8890429a5.jpg Bank of America Sell Side Indicator currently at a 6 year high
    JULIE

  • JH

    Came across this on placing piecemeal exits on another website *gasp*, (dailyspeculations), and thought it interesting..
    “Galen Cawley writes:
    I have found that piecemeal exits work best based on three different mechanisms: first, your personal utility curve (this can and should be programmed), second, a bayesian updating of the premise of your original entry, and finally, pure market action (some sort of trailing stop). The first type of exit is based on your psychology but has the beauty of not being made in the heat of the moment. The second type is logically based on your methodology, and the last one lets the position run as long as the market dictates (which can certainly escape the logic of your particular system). “

  • Ag Coyote

    Possibly getting a boost from the declining USD making debt payments cheaper.

  • Ag Coyote

    I often close out the last of a position with a TSL. Good thinking there.

  • Julie

    Excellent thought Mr. Coyote !
    JULIE

  • Mark Shinnick

    Hey…how did troll post get deleted ?? I just hope he did it himself.

  • Mark Shinnick
  • http://www.captainboom.com/ captainboom

    What’s the difference between a prostitute, a nymphomaniac, and a housewife?

    The prostitute says, “Aren’t you done yet?”

    The nymphomaniac says, “Are you done already?”

    The housewife says, “Beige… I think I’ll paint the ceiling beige.”

  • Mark Shinnick

    Its creepy to be facing what this portends with little recent robustness generated for anyone but the wealthy.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Short miners from a bit earlier.

  • Julie

    Taking prufits GLD
    JULIE

  • Julie

    Gold Gerb UUP weekly chart confluence of 233 ema ; support zone ; lower trend line of a drawn parallel channel. Also a bullish falling wedge is developing. Notice importance of weekly 233 ema
    JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/822d71c1973837107e09103f304257d637050b27f9dc187ea90b719a8413970c.jpg

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    NEW POST Like over an hour ago…