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What Goes Up Must Come Down
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What Goes Up Must Come Down

by The MoleNovember 9, 2010

I must still have been a bit jet lagged this morning as my ellbow accidentally pushed the wrong button deep down in the evil lair:

Ooops – sorry about that – my bad :-}

Of course rogue missiles are not the only ones pushing into the stratosphere today. If you appreciate exponential curves (or launch trajectories) here’s a juicy long term chart for you:
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Charts and commentary below for anyone donning a secret decoder ring. The rest of you guys will have to wait until tomorrow – sorry. If you are interested in becoming a Gold member then don’t waste time and sign up here. And if you are a Zero subscriber it includes access to all Gold posts, so you actually get double the bang for your buck.
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It’s funny how retail traders lead themselves to the slaughter over and over again. There’s an old saying, most likely inspired by Newton, that eventually holds true – be that in physics or in the financial markets:

What goes up, must come down.

Look at this chart and then tell me if this is a good buying opportunity for silver. Really now?

Cheers,

Mole

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About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at various social media waterholes below.
  • http://www.hervey-bay-holiday.com kea11

    Is this real or are these three actors? http://market-ticker.org/post=171691 Would the real Bernanke and Greenspan please stand up!

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    some day…i will get that ring…. some day.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Well, I may not be around anymore by the time you (and others) decide that this blog is worth supporting ๐Ÿ˜‰

  • Fearless

    Mole,

    If you do decide to pull the plug on this blog (I hope not), will you keep the Zero running? I think you have a perfect market timing tool in the Zero. I went long exactly at 1040 to ride the wave up (except I sold the last bunch at 1175 and missed out on another 50 points) thanks to the daily Zero. I think it's a shame that most people only want to use the Zero to time a big time short, whereas the real strength of the Zero, I found, is identifying when and at what level the ramp will begin. Listening to EWI has done so much damage to the retail traders that it's not even funny. (Fortunately, I never subscribed to EWI nor used EWT.)

    The best way to trade off the daily Zero, I find, is to time the ramp and front run it. Hold through the trend change (down to up) and hold until a two consecutive high volume bar break of the 20 day SMA. Had I followed this, I would not have sold my last bunch at 1175. 1040 to 1225 is a whopping 185 points!

  • Fearless

    Sorry, I meant the 5 day SMA. My fingers were faster than my brain LOL.

    Note that if I followed the rule exactly to the letters, I still would not have sold my longs today. What this means is that the downside has not commenced until two high volume bar break of the 5 day SMA, with the second bar closing below the lows of the first bar.

  • balljet

    I haven't been trading, hence I haven't check you guys out lately… It is with sadness that I learn you are thinking of closing shop. You have been great, and I have enjoyed your evil shared thoughts.. tough times.. wishing you all the best!

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    ???? ?? ?? ?????.

    ๐Ÿ˜€

    [you do have the Korean Lanuage pack installed in your browser, yes?]

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Yes I probably would. I even taught Mrs. Evil how to update the chart and maintain the Zero just in case my plane to Korea would have made a nose dive into the Pacific.

  • yudhisthira

    Mrs. Evil. I like that. My wife and I also are united in evil purposes.
    Want to dollar-cost average back into bear hedge if SPX climbs again into January.

  • Joe_Jones

    Enjoy my friends barbershop???

  • prescient11

    WHAT THE FUCK WAS THAT???!!! The lack of an answer disturbs me most of all…

    Mole, glad you still have a site. Been tough brother, but stop shorting the f'ing market, this is all part of the process. Market, dollar and gold will rise my friend, it don't mean all is well, just the way it is.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Actually we haven't been shorting over here – been staying mostly out of the way of the steamroller.

  • http://chartsandthat.blogspot.com/ ultra

    Nice chart on silver there, cuts to the heart of it.

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    yep cash IS a position..

    for now…

  • http://chartsandthat.blogspot.com/ ultra

    Crikey. Is everyone dead?

    Bit of movement on the currencies – even without the Zoelllick “misquote”.

  • Schwerepunkt

    I'm still trying to figure out what he is really saying.

  • Schwerepunkt

    Fewer jobless claims and lower trade deficit? That is the kind of “news” that, over the long run, might allow the dollar and equities to track higher together.

  • Schwerepunkt

    Caveat: Unless lower trade deficit is a function of lower economic activity globally, or the result of a trade/currency war.

  • 99er
  • Schwerepunkt

    Anybody actually taking any positions today? Once again, I find myself sitting on my hands with nothing really compelling on my screen.

  • Fearless

    Was it a good decision to hold my DD short over the past few days? It looks like “yes”.

    Boy, that was painful holding from Thursday onwards until yesterday. Interesting that the database I built to keep track of the DOW30 stocks actually fired a sell signal on DD after Monday's close. I guess I should have been more patient before entering.

  • ds2

    SPX at the bottom of the channel. Time to go up? Watching the $$ and the zero.

  • rae17

    Just took a small short on /ES – in and out in four minutes for a small profit. Swing trades just don't look very good today.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Zero is flat – be cautious…

  • Bob the Horse

    Mad as it sounds, just went long.

  • jacksoo

    cleared ES shorts thinking might get 120 to off load SPY puts – – like you then thinking long to ES 1218 or so?

  • Bob the Horse

    Well I am certainly not balls to the wall. My portfolio is still trading like I am short as I am long a few defensive names – so I am just pulling off more estoxx futures hedge. Takes me to 45% long which trades more like 15%. If you can't beat 'em, join 'em.

  • jacksoo

    i'l be small long also – but like you say “can't beat em”

  • Bob the Horse

    It's a mad world but central bankers are in power and out of control. You can be bearish in real terms but it is a lot harder in nominal terms. I have no faith that any dip will create a panic – it is more likely just to provoke a rush of capital by people panicking that the Fed will destroy their savings.

  • jacksoo

    sense a turning of the tide though Bob re Benny Buy and support – – – lines look as though they are being drawn, surprised Obama has supported Benny publicly – – not politically savvy – – –

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    is it a POMO day today?

  • Bob the Horse

    Much as I believe Bernanke should be in jail, the smallest whiff of market weakness will be enough to scare politicians away from criticising him.

  • malverd

    LMT?

  • malverd

    curious to see if this cracks the 1213'ish resistance & holds

  • malverd

    Getting a little toppy

  • BobbyLow

    For those suffering from terminal boredom, this is a link to a 12 minute audio debate between Schiff and Prechter on opposite sides of Inflation vs. Deflation and Dollar destruction and Gold vs. Stronger dollar.

    What a relief it is to not make trading decisions based on what the “experts” say. :)

    http://www.schiffradio.com/pg/jsp/charts/audioMaster.jsp;jsessionid=697ED05CA358F9E2F25A83D0CF9C8B78?dispid=301&pid=51127

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Good job – enjoy you profits ๐Ÿ˜‰

  • ds2

    No – new schedlue comes out today 2pm

    bookmark this

    http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/tot_operation_schedule.html

  • EvilTrader

    eur/usd probably gonna retrace 50% to 1376.

  • malverd

    are you long right now?

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    cheers

  • EvilTrader

    i went long at 23.6% retracement @13704 and sold @ 13744 thats 50% retracement

  • malverd

    Good job. Looks like it's getting a bit weak now.

  • EvilTrader

    nice. thx.

  • BobbyLow

    Meanwhile, TLT (Barclays Capital U.S. 20+ Year Treasury Bond index) has almost gone through the 95 Handle and is close to June 3rd Low.

  • Bob the Horse

    Right. Today is the day. We have just had a very poor 30yr auction. So the price action in the next few hours will tell us everything. If the market sells off, it tells us that QE2 is not going to work and that the bond market is close to a heart attack. If it rallies, it tells us that the big asset reallocation is ON and Bernanke is successfully forcing people out of the bond market and in to equities.

  • WTFed

    Two fighter jets just slammed through the L.A. basin full blast. That was weird.

  • Schwerepunkt

    Thanks for that POI. Euro surging, market mounting. Seems Uncle Ben is cooking some rice.

  • BobbyLow

    And here we go! ES still in tight range but stretching upper BB on VWAP

  • malverd

    haha uncle ben ๐Ÿ˜›

    i thought his name was ben dover

  • malverd

    on the news? don't see it yet… maybe they're after mole's missile ๐Ÿ˜›

  • WTFed

    haha. Oh man that was just an airplane. Didn't you hear ; ).

  • malverd

    it was one of our missiles, or they would have scrambled jets to see wtf was going on

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Pure mental masturbation: I think a Chinese sub may be in the area playing games. U.S. Navy has a very hard time tracking them and they keep popping up all over the place – it's not being reported much. Maybe they let a test missile go – which would be ballsy. I mean – come on – do you really think a missile is being launched and coast guard or Navy doesn't know what's causing it? They are all over this, I'm sure.

  • Schwerepunkt

    No, Captain Ben Dover is from the Royal Canadian Mounted Police.

  • http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/ steveo77

    You know, I went long ES future on Monday night….hope y'all appreciate me throwing myself in front of the bus for you.

    PS -Ameritrade TOS closed the position for me at 1219.5 but my limit sell was at 1224 which would have been hit for a nice profit. Got into a 45 minute chat at 1AM HST about how my standard limit is 8 ES point above my entry, which was 1224. Told them I never moved my limit down to 1219.5. NOTHING showed on my order entry history screen. NOTHING related to this 1219.5. 45 minutes later they provided some proof by saying my user name and IP was logged placing the order. As if that is “proof” — shit they know my user name and IP, I accused them of trading against their customers, and taking me out of the position on an obvious strong move upward. They said the SEC would be all over them if they ever traded against their customers.

    TOS aka Ameritrade, is getting worse and worse, taking me out of position at the worst possible moments, getting the worse possible fills.

    I did log the entire chat, along with multiple screen captures, and saved the chat in a Word document. If anyone wants it let me know.

    I am extremely pissed at them.

  • jigdaddy
  • malverd

    I have noticed tos getting worse too. especially that fiasco with the upgrade to their desktop software a couple months ago. they always send out automated messages (spam) to you while you are trading saying “so and so” is going to be a special speaker today..Who cares!

    But when their software crapped out did we hear a peep? NO!

  • 99er
  • ds2

    New POMO schedule – 18 dates = 105 billion!!

  • EvilTrader

    In eur/usd we ended up retracing 100%. I consider now a short opp.

  • http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/ steveo77

    I predicted the downfall on the first announcement, and it is slowly becoming more and more true.

  • rae17

    Nice schedule – it looks like almost every day is POMO day!

  • gsavli

    “they” are making nice little ornaments from chart curves today. neat.

  • 99er
  • ds2
  • jacksoo

    but wasn't all this priced in prior to last weeks ramp – -we get to ramp every time they tell us how the $605 is going to be split – – hell, that's leverage, fuc*ing nuts as well.

  • malverd

    are you considering another broker?

  • EvilTrader

    spy hit 61.8% retrace then going south again.

    correction wontend today, probably.

  • kbmck

    I think the FED must be a little worried that the markets will crash going into Dec.

    ….but they are not bigger than the market.

  • red_clay

    Just saw it – don't see how anyone can be actively short with locomotive of liquidity coming at them. Looks like more of the same.

  • http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/ steveo77

    Yes

  • http://dreadwinaard.livejournal.com/profile dreadwin

    Short oil via DTO, entry 56.86.

  • BobbyLow

    Holy Smoley!

    POMO here POMO there everywhere a POMO :)

  • Fearless

    Using the 5 day SMA rule, long and still strong against all negative divergence.

    I grabbed a few more call options a bit after today's bottom. I ain't getting rid of them unless the 5 day SMA is broken with two daily bars.

  • BobbyLow

    Ole Mr. Smoothie and CSCO getting Bitch Slapped in A/H.

    I'm wondering how they'll spin this one.