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What Is Fueling This Rally
97

What Is Fueling This Rally

by The MoleMarch 1, 2017

No matter where you stand politically and what you may think of President Donald Trump, you’ve got to admit that he’s a pure breed optimist. And just maybe, despite all the media poison and the political infighting, it is that very sense of good old fashioned American can-do optimism that continues to fuel the flames of the Saturn V mega rocket that has propelled equity markets to all time highs with apparently no end in sight.

2017-03-01_spoos_update

I wonder how many participants had a chance to enter before the rocket launch. Perhaps 2 or 3 percent tops? Now ask yourself this: How many are now still riding this campaign? A fraction of a percent maybe? So if you’re a loyal reader here and traded along your humble host then consider yourself part of a very small and exclusive group of traders.

I’m not saying that to pad our own backs or reel in momentary glory. First of all this is not the first time we’ve caught a trend (although this one thwarts almost everything I have witnessed) and secondly you’re only as good as your last trade. But the take away message for all of us once again is that you do not need to be a genius, that you don’t need to attend expensive seminars or buy dozens of trading books, to become a consistent trader. That’s the good news. The bad news for many however is that there are no shortcuts.

What is required most of all are the qualitative aspects of trading: determination, diligence, consistency, and discipline. Trading is an acquired skill and not a academic one. As such it’s much more comparable to playing the piano than studying for an exam. The educational aspects are of course an essential part of it, but just like studying the law doesn’t make you a good lawyer, reading books on how to trade doesn’t make you a good trader. You simply become a good trader by trading, and by making many small mistakes. By following a simple set of rules which we post here on a daily basis and have been doing so over the past eight years.

2017-03-01_gold_update

Gold was unfortunately taken to the woodshed overnight and our campaign ended before it managed to get out of the gate. We raked in 1.5R plus minus here which ain’t bad but not what we had hoped for.

2017-03-01_silver_update

Silver on the other hand is still in the running and I’ve advanced my trailing stop to < 18.275. It either gets going now or most likely we’ll see another visit of those daily NLSL near the 18 mark. Where I incidentally may enter again if conditions favor it.

2017-03-01_corn

Corn is a potential long here but not just yet. I’m waiting for a pronounced spike low preferably followed by a retest. Reason for my interest in a long position is the daily panel which requires little explanation.

2017-03-01_AUDUSD

AUD/USD joined gold in the woodshed and I’m actually re-entering here, which is something I very rarely do. My justification is technical of course and based on the daily panel which shows us a touch of two Net-Line Sell Levels (NLSLs) as well as the still rising 25-day SMA. If that won’t hold then the Ozzie Dollar is most likely going to slide to 0.76 or lower.

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About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at various social media waterholes below.
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    I think I’m in the top 10%. But that’s not good enough.

    February almost got me when the S&P went south. But, the NAZ didn’t lead south, it trailed.
    So I was suspicious.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/fcbf525ee0dd81105344e29510c25125fae56c6e9c3325f3346d63a6f820f4f5.png

    Ah, but I can’t brag all this on my own accord. The teachings of EvilSpec have finally filtered down into my brain to a recognizable level.
    😉

  • Yoda

    Too bad that the long Gold trade went bust. Not gonna touch it anymore, or least for a long while, as DX is now looking super bullish on the daily.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Long volatility, tight stop.

  • ridingwaves

    Not busted but beat up

  • ridingwaves

    might be best to wait for them to get the SNAP IPO out of the way tomorrow, I might look at it in afternoon

  • Mark Shinnick

    Ok, this one working at least for now. Met an objective, exit.

  • Mark Shinnick

    I believe its very sad that Trump failed to mix into the speech the flip side of this rally. In aligning the rally to his credit he has handed over to the future full force and effect against him of any significant downside. That was a huge mistake.

  • Tomcat

    Flipping to short $IBB, based on Trump’s comments. Tight stop.

  • ridingwaves

    u sure….if it holds above 301 today it has chance to run to 320

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    thanks for the reminder, I was fully engaged in a family event last night and did not see.

  • Mark Shinnick

    CSPAN, I saw the whole thing….it was a family event too,.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    USO,
    all profits shall be shared with Mole & Feed-the-Starving Husbands fund.
    😉
    Thank You.
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/eb48985b05331c0b3762b9a01bfda1eb11a1f9b73095a771604a75948cef9b9f.png
    -GG

  • Mark Shinnick

    Yeah, looks like we’ve entered the bizarre phase of exhaustion gap….makes perfect sense, actually.

  • Tomcat

    If I was SURE, I would be putting more than 0.5R ;).

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    it’s not too bizarre. Imagine deep pockets bidding on puts at ridiculously low prices. The algo’s can lurch price upward, and fill-them! Also, you have short positions that CANNOT take any more pain, and need to cover at ANY COST!
    😉

  • Tomcat

    You just described 40% of my trading experience…:)

  • Mark Shinnick

    Yeah…rather beautiful to be in a catbird position to see all this governed by a simple set of technical tools…and Mole. :)

  • Yoda

    this presumptuous statement will likely bite his aßß in the future

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Tomcat

    Another rise in inventory for Crude according to EIA. Good excuse to kick oil…

  • Tomcat

    LOL

  • Mark Shinnick

    Things look supportive to volatility; its local technicals have held.

  • Tomcat

    BREAKING NEWS: Hooker Furniture declares $0.12 dividend

  • AcoBrasil

    Wasn’t Mole’s P&F target set several months back pointing at SPX 2400?

  • Mark Shinnick

    That area pretty soon would round-out the elegance of this move pretty well, killing every bear in sight.

  • ridingwaves

    CL is really confusing, not one gain has held over last 30 days it seems like…

  • Mark Shinnick

    ….distribution?

  • BobbyLow

    I don’t think so. If I was going to follow my gut which I don’t do anymore, I would say that the “Boyz” want higher prices but over supply keeps screwing them up. Crude probably should be trading at $35 or lower right now. OPEC’s jawboning has been able to stabilize prices in a shitty $2 range. However jawboning can only go so far.

    Having said all that, I remain net long.

  • Billabong

    The issue is a strengthening $$$. Munchin says strong $ and TRUMP says weak $…

  • AcoBrasil

    RSI on $SPX is currently at 81.90. Easily a 5 year high.

  • Yoda

    Tape would need to reverse hard to stop DX’s current bull move.

  • ridingwaves

    an uppercut and jab hurt it a little but it switched to southpaw and confused the opponent…the match is pretty even now.

  • ridingwaves

    he has unleashed animal spirits, its not up to the president to give trading advice….
    bankers love him so far…..without any down move in XLF a downtrend will have a tough time really catching on….

  • ridingwaves

    that Aramco IPO is the biggest in the world, possibly ever, everyone wants a piece of the Saudi oil wealth….they will make much more if oil stays here or near here price wise on IPO….they are shopping exchanges for 30 days and then it should happen….so maybe a small window for down move but not much…

  • Billabong

    Selling bonds is the star today … TBT +4% / TLT -2%.

    Putting things into perspective since 8 Nov 16, YM +15%, ES +12%, NQ +12%, GC -2%, SI 0%, CL +20%, DX +4%, ZB -8%, ZN -4%, XLF +26% …

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Daily is over-rated. Switch to weekly, or hell, even Monthly.

  • http://greenlander1.blogspot.com/ Greenlander

    I have a bad feeling that this train won’t let me jump on.

  • ridingwaves

    Bankers win…….again….

  • ridingwaves

    hard to tell right now but Trump comments also brought ray of light to bio-healthcare with FDA revamping….the hurdles of new discovery seem to onerous……the agency has become political to boot….

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I posted it the other day actually and it was 2370 if I recall correctly.

  • BobbyLow

    The problem I’ve had using RSI is that it is an after the fact indicator that can stay Overbought or Oversold for way too long to be useful for my liking.

  • StockTalker

    Stopped out, another attempt @ 2400. -2 /ES

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    LOL – this fucker just keeps going. I may just take a month after this ends ;-P

  • AcoBrasil

    True enough. Its one of several indicators to watch though. I like to combine it with a gap open over upper Bollinger lines – preferably at an obvious diagonal resistance line.

  • AcoBrasil

    LOL. Weekly “only” prints at 75…

  • Billabong

    Why is ES up 37 and YM 340? …. LMAO.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    135 ES handles of profit – very happy camper over here.

  • AcoBrasil

    Give yourself a bit more credit than that Mole :)

    http://evilspeculator.com/long-term-perspectives-4/

    “The P&F is pretty bullish at this point as it triggered a double top break-out on July 8th and the new bullish price objective is now (are you sitting down?) 2400.”

    July 2016

  • Mark Shinnick

    Ok…stay very cold, too.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Thank you sir – glad someone is paying attention ;0)

    (pass on the word – it’s been slow here in the past year)

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I’ve been freezing all winter…

  • Mark Shinnick

    We are dead-nuts volatility support here so long now with a tight stop.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Okay I’m tripling subscription rates and going forward insist on being referred to as Your Evilness.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I’m also reserving the right to claim prima nocta, but need to see pictures first.

  • Mark Shinnick

    There goes the gene pool….

  • AcoBrasil

    With great power comes great responsibility… Now what’s the downside target :)

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Yep. countless of examples where over 70 goes on for.ever.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    No worries – I hate children. I do like cats and dogs though…

  • Tomcat

    My first “down” vote I think…ever

  • Tomcat

    Even ZERO is confused today with the arrows…

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Have you ever met Spanish children?

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    that’s normal – ignore those arrows in a strong trend day.

  • Tomcat

    I thought this was not supposed to be a trend day

  • Mark Shinnick

    How about a nice lambie?

  • Tomcat

    Are you claiming that Spanish children different than the rest of the world?

  • ridingwaves

    yes, they are sangria drinking rug rats….

  • ridingwaves

    2400-2450 would be great area to distribute some big money gains to the sheeple…..

  • Mark Shinnick

    Yes. Heaven help them if they are not on blogs like this.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Closed long volatility, very nice pop there from support….see what happens.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Rebot vol…tight stop.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    close your books.

    (this doesn’t end well, I remember the Tech & Silver crash)

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/7138daaaf80a238c2518bbcbdbbcd04fe51b91e6c120a9fd2619d371edadd0f4.png

  • Billabong

    WMT and TGT not joining in on the fun….

  • Mark Shinnick

    Friggin in-the-trench slugfest. The abject violence possible in this business always impresses me.

  • ridingwaves

    no one is going to stores anymore.. Mobile commerce is eating up the world right now.. retail sales indexes are still a great short
    https://www.internetretailer.com/trends/sales/us-e-commerce-sales-2013-2017/

  • ridingwaves
  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Come visit and you will see… here in Valencia they are famous for throwing firecrackers at you during Las Fallas.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I wouldn’t recommend that at this stage but I’m not your pappy.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Oh, the alert? It’s not always right unfortunately. But I mean look at the session and the signal… it was solidly in the plus.

  • Mark Shinnick

    yes, at this stage just past the close, but that support zone a couple of hours ago was 2 very profitable trades ago Mole :)

  • Yoda
  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    i would wait for a retest – e.g. an RTV-L.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    “A prominent 47-year-old hedge fund trader was killed when he jumped from a luxury apartment building on Manhattan’s Upper West Side”.

    I can think of $4.5 billion reasons. Should have used the 2% Rule.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Should have signed up for a $49 Evil Speculator subscription 😉

    See guys? Evil Speculator literally could save lives!

  • http://www.ProfitFromPatterns.com/ Ivan K

    Seems I did touch a nerve !!

  • http://greenlander1.blogspot.com/ Greenlander

    Yeh Im eyeing that too and looking for retest

  • http://greenlander1.blogspot.com/ Greenlander

    Yeh TGT got obliterated. I had a decent sized portion and switched into calls a week ago. Still got whacked but less than if I had common. I’m a bit more skeptical about my JWN now. If and when there is a rally I would like to short

  • http://greenlander1.blogspot.com/ Greenlander

    Pain trade still up. I can imagine things getting totally crazy a couple yrs from now and getting parabolic. Sold VXX calls yesterday, got smashed on TGT, major holdings are GLD short, BIDU and LVS longs and in long term acct REGN, CMG, BIDU.

    Hoping to get into XLE/ XOP and XBI

  • Yoda

    I plan to. Thanx

  • Mark Shinnick

    That is damm interesting…I guess when its more than one of them in a short time it becomes more statistically significant.

  • Mark Shinnick

    couple yrs from now ?? Parabolic ?

  • Mark Shinnick

    Last we were talking about that several months ago I think I was looking at the 1800-1850 area. Should we get reversal in this recent zone, that target now coincides. We’ll look a it later.

  • AcoBrasil

    I’m looking at 2275 for the initial drop – middle of BB range and on a diagonal trend line. No short position yet.

  • StockTalker

    +1 bears, crude failed to put in a new high.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • StockTalker

    nice gap @ 3.7

  • StockTalker

    Yes, you should. Without the emotions

  • http://greenlander1.blogspot.com/ Greenlander

    still too much doubt. Im a permabull until that changes :)