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What Me Worry?
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What Me Worry?

by The MoleApril 8, 2015

I hate FOMC days – no matter if it’s the notes, an announcement, or just a speech. Usually the entire session is a waste and I rather spend my time attending overdue chores or just hitting the gym (did both today in spates). A few of my Forex campaigns have been taken to the woodshed overnight but except for two I got out at break/even.

Alfred E Newman

So I shouldn’t really worry and just let my campaigns do the talking. With that said let’s take a peek at the survivors and two of the losers – in no particular order:

2015-04-08_GBPCAD_update

GBP/CAD – I got super lucky here. I had it set to flip a few pips below 1.85 and somehow I didn’t get snagged. Looking good now and I’ve advanced my stop to the 100-hour.

2015-04-08_ZB_update

ZB – what a damn dirty shame on this one. I’m pretty certain we’ll see another break out attempt here and I got stopped out at break/even by a few ticks. Well, it happens, no sense getting one’s panties in a twist over it.

2015-04-08_CL_update

Crude – what a shame! Same sentiment as on ZB actually. This one is actually coiling up for a big move and I’ll probably work my way into an entry here again soon. Stand by – I have a feeling we’ll be seeing this one soon again.

2015-04-08_USDJPY_update

USD/JPY – didn’t break a sweat on this one – progressing nicely and I’ve moved my stop near the 100-hour.

2015-04-08_NQ_update

NQ – ditto on this one. It pays to get an early entry and if we can hold into the close we should be able to leave behind that 25-day SMA. Moving my stop below the recent spike low.

And that’s all for the day – no new campaigns – let the market digest the FOMC minutes first. Tomorrow is another day.

It’s not too late – learn how to consistently bank coin without news, drama, and all the misinformation. If you are interested in becoming a subscriber then don’t waste time and sign up here. The Zero indicator service also offers access to all Gold posts, so you actually get double the bang for your buck.

Cheers,


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at various social media waterholes below.
  • Skynard

    Only thing that worries me is the flatline.

  • HeadNShoulder

    Does that imply the bull is still building strength due to the flatline consolidation phase? (in other words, running low on bear power)

  • Skynard

    No, simply that lack of participation does not allow us rats an edge and therefore is hard to read.

  • Skynard

    Looks like she is waking up:)

  • wandering196

    I got stopped out of ZB as well. The 5 minute zero looks like a dogs breakfast

  • Skynard

    Fakeout, look at the lower signal

  • BobbyLow

    This reminds me. We should nominate Alfred E. Newman for Chair of the Federal Reserve.

  • Billabong

    DX/ES/YM/NQ up and GC/CL/6E down … says it all.

  • ridingwaves

    bears are still afraid to press…or there are none…2075-81 seems like tough hurdle for the fat bears…

  • HeadNShoulder

    I think they press the last 10 minutes into the close

  • Billabong

    CL sell signal tomorrow on follow-through? Although, I would like to see a solid move through $50.

  • Skynard

    She gana tank Bro

  • Billabong

    Which 1/2? The unknown, unknown…

  • BKXtoZERO

    you sure were right the other day about saying you wouldn’t be surprised to see crude down 3$ and here it is……

  • hellbent

    Seems to me she’s pretty buoyant, daily at any rate, in the face of what should be a ramp down to roll day. I’m dangerously inexperienced though. Biased too. And all scarred up from last years trip down. Didn’t stop me making a buck on the short today though ;0)

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    it’s a Campout. pass me the smores.
    I”ll put the fire out.
    http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=ES&p=h1

  • BobbyLow

    That would probably do it and if it does, I’ll wait until just before the NYSE Daily Close to go short. I’ve been burned too many times (no matter what the time frame is on my chart) by taking a position before a candle closes. Especially with CL.

  • Billabong

    Do you have a system in place that tells you when to buy and sell? Bobbylow and I have both back tested UCO/SCO against CL and it works. I can’t speak for BL, but I did 3 years of back testing. It was a painful but learning experience. My lens is different to his and our results are different. Despite the pencil / paper work, the psychological trading requirement for trading this commodity can’t be over estimated.

  • Billabong

    Please read below and add your two coppers worth….

  • BobbyLow

    Yep. I guess you can call that my self imposed punishment for getting out of sync with the market last week. :)

  • BobbyLow

    Yes. I did 3 years worth too – multiple times.

  • Billabong

    Short positions for hedging? Or are today’s bears like us, where we go short when our systems tell us to go short

  • hellbent

    I’ve got a bit of work to do on the , ahem, system front. My feeling though is that, fractal in nature though it may be, putting lots of work in to entries is a bit futile except in the short term. The guys on here seem to be really switched on with timing entries. I think that’s really cool and it’s something i’d like to learn a lot more about. Longer term though I just close one eye and kind of look at the chart sideways pick a direction and jump on. Sounds bloody stupid I know but I do believe you can profit from random entry so I don’t, or haven’t, been putting too much weight on it. So… If i’m right I ride it and take my stop and take profit with me to wherever looks sensible. If I’m wrong it gets knocked on the head… The way I see it anything tangible that you learn will add to your odds over time and only our stupid biases and losing control of emotions, and particularly risk management, will really get us in trouble. I’ve got a lot to learn I know..

    What actually is OCO/SCO? Back testing is something I want to get into. Of particular interest though is backtesting money management etc. So far it seems to me for an entry and exit system top be profitable you end up having to take a lot of hits in the hope of catching a nice smooth trend. I’m still struggling with that concept.

    Any decent long term system would have caught the rout last year though? Not to mention anyone schooled up on the fundamentals.. I got myself into a Homer Simpson like routine… Expensive learning.

  • BobbyLow

    You pretty much said it all. I also did 3 years of back testing multiple times. I agree that our lens is a little different but this could because one lens has a slightly faster read then the other. But more times than not I think we are on the same page. Sometimes the faster read works out better and sometimes the slower read works better. It appears that you might use a tighter stop than I do as well.

  • BobbyLow

    Does anyone have a formula for calculating an annualized return in Excell? For example, if I got a 25% return for a 20 day hold, what would the annual rate of return be?

    I used to have the formula and can’t find it. I’ve also googled it and nothing seems to work correctly.

  • BKXtoZERO

    So I guess no one on this board hit the link above and signed up for Harry Dents forecasts for 2015 huh?

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Ad banner?

  • BKXtoZERO

    yes… my attempt at humor for people who don’t predict things……

  • Billabong

    A good place to start is at the top of this page under tools. Mr Mole has a fine collection of trading information under this pull-down. Also, 3-4 days ago, I put a piece on the comment section talking about the Traders Anonymous 12 Step Process. It’s a basic framework to start a professional approach to trading.
    UCO (long) / SCO (short) are 2X crude oil ETFs. BL and I trade them against CL. But you would have to build a system that works for your personality. You will not be able to trade them the same way I do because my lens is different to yours.

    You will find the biggest hurdle you will face in searching for success is psychological. If you have read any books or watched videos that help explain the problems faced by traders, you need to start doing it. YouTube has great VanTharp, Radge, and Douglas videos. There is also a whole host of books by VanTharp, Douglas, Elder, and Steenbarger that address this issue.

    For anyone coming off the retail train and is serious about upgrading their skills, it takes time. I threw away 15 years of what I thought I knew and started from scratch. It’s taken me three years to get to this point…

  • saltwaterdog

    =(1+Rate of Return)^(365/Holding Period Days)-1

  • hellbent

    Cool. I’ve been immersing myself of late and I think I’m starting to get the drift. Thanks for the tips, I’ll follow those up. For what it’s worth I think finding this site is the single best bit of fortune I’ve had on the path so far. It’s lead to a hell of a lot of good leads already. Funny thing is I was reading book reviews just a few weeks ago and someone was bagging Van Tharpe. I thought I’d google a bit deeper and picked up a remark Mr Mole had made about standing on the shoulders of giants.. So I started reading. Of course Van Tharp’s work is great and I think you lot here a pretty bloody cool too.

    Nose to the grindstone!

  • evilasevildoes

    Anyone here trade the HSI futures?

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool
  • hellbent

    Thanks Mr Mole

  • BobbyLow

    Thanks.

    For some reason I’m still having a difficult time with this. Are the quotation marks in or out? Is the rate of return changed to a decimal?

    Or in this particular case should it read =(1+.25=>)^(365/18)-1 Which also is not working.

    If I use =(1+return as decimal)^(365/days)-1

    As in =(1+.25)^(365/18)-1 This comes to 5,769.6% which seems high but perhaps it’s not. Also a few 2% losses over 2 or 3 day spans would add up the other way as well. Am I missing something in the formula that’s actually working?

  • trader wantabee

    I’m currently reading Mark Douglas Trading in the Zone, Chapter 3 Taking Responsibility, and it is damn scary how his writings describe me to a T. You start trading, get lucky, and the future looks great. Then when you least expect it, you lose, and that loss causes psychological pain because you didn’t expect it. So you think I’m gonna learning everything I can about trading so I don’t lose again, then you start to learn and you think this is great I’ve learned a lot I’m ready, I’m gonna beat that market, then you still lose (cuz losing is part of the randomness of the market) and you get stuck in this endless cycle of booms then busts.

    But there is more good stuff in the remainder of the book.

  • saltwaterdog

    I realized after my first comment that my decision to use brackets was being misinterpreted by Disqus – I posted an edit.

    Your formula is right, and your math on 25% return every 20 days being annualized at 5770% is also correct. Simple test, change the inputs to 1% every 30 days… .should be just north of 12%

  • BobbyLow

    Great! Thanks for your help.

    I’m going to write this formula down in a couple of places just in case I ever lose it again. :)

  • Scott Phillips

    That fuckin guy! My parents buy all his books and believe his bullshit

    He has a record that makes Prechter look acceptable

  • BKXtoZERO

    5770% / year! sign me up! let me know when you get your news letter 😉

  • saltwaterdog

    My pleasure. If you want to get nutty, open up your VBA Module, and put the below code in your Personal Macro Workbook. Then, you should be able to use function and simply pass both variables, Return and Days, in that order. Ie, like any other function, you would type: =AnnRet(.25,20) and get your answer. In your PWB it will be available to you in all workbooks.

    Function AnnRet(Ret As Double, Per As Integer)

    AnnRet = (1 + Ret) ^ (365 / Per) – 1

    End Function

  • Anthony Morrow

    yea i do, hscei and a bunch of other stuff in hk / china, oz as well. got anything on there?

  • evilasevildoes

    just wondering what brokerage to use?
    I have IB

  • trader wantabee

    Are you sneaking over to the girl scouts side of the island?

  • Anthony Morrow

    they shld be able to give you access to pretty much anything you need thats not too exotic for pretty cheap def hsi futs

  • evilasevildoes

    thx mate

  • BKXtoZERO

    Your average person just wants a plan put into a box that they can grasp and “prepare for” etc, your average person would never in a million years do what you do which is (trade) deploy capital with very tight rules, complex systems, guesswork, probability studies….. (very hard work)

  • evilasevildoes

    wow just had a blast trading those futures HSI

  • evilasevildoes

    so how many dollars to the currency on hSI>?

  • evilasevildoes

    just killed it lol

  • BobbyLow

    Wouldn’t that be something? LOL

    This is only a Return on an individual Investment (ROI). Individual Annualized Loss calculations of Negative Returns on individual trades would be high as well. If I really wanted a crazy number, I could use Return on Risk (R). :)

    All kidding aside, I’m just doing some number crunching for my Swing Account. I’m not anywhere close to using Maximum R for this account. So I’m just gathering evidence to go along with my APE and SQN.

  • BobbyLow

    Thanks Saltwaterdog.

  • ridingwaves

    I’m scaling into a short campaign by scaling in right now…ready for drawdown if it comes….

    I did add heavy today S RUT but have laddered stops nearby buy point if it fails like all others…

    FIRE sector helped bulls today

  • Scott Phillips

    On futures it should technically make no difference

  • Scott Phillips

    He is also completely wrong most of the time.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Now that’s an insult.

    Yep, a charlatan and a shill.

    http://jeffvoudrie.com/independent-review-harry-dents-predictions-financial-advisor-jeff-voudrie/

    I bet the Market actually sponsors him, so they can take the other side of the trade – Harry’s followers.

  • evilasevildoes

    so the word is those liquidated bonds last friday…found their way into chineese banks for prop desks

  • ridingwaves

    took a long time for Hang Seng to party like 2007
    http://s22.postimg.org/ebhbl2lip/Hanging_sang_2008_style.jpg

  • evilasevildoes

    oh yes I remember that

  • Scott Phillips

    He is a very good panic merchant though, a class above the rest in his outrageous and outlandish predictions.

    Complete bullshit of course, but as a charlatan, first class

  • Scott Phillips

    Critical thing for most people is to STOP trading during the recovery process. You should only restart when the possibility of blowing up is virtually impossible

  • ridingwaves

    crazy breakout move over last 3 days..12%..watching SSE index to see if it loses momo…red right now…

  • Bernie

    sentiment extreme? the bus at full load here?
    An ending diagonal from the 2011 low with the current move a throwover? sorry guys… again waves here…. not a trading idea – just a thought :)

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-04-09/hong-kong-housewife-cheers-stocks-as-workers-punt-on-lunch-break

  • hellbent

    I hear you, mate.

  • Billabong

    He is a one trick pony. His demographic work was good and then he went off track. Instead of trying to write beyond his core competency, he should have read the “The Fourth Turning” and been done with the prediction business.

  • Billabong

    LOL … “… makes Prechter look acceptable”.

  • Billabong

    Chinese short ETFs (YXI/YANG/FXP) also paying the price.

  • hellbent

    Thanks, I’ll
    look that up too. My head used to throb when I was studying. More so from
    writing and getting head around equations than from reading though. I think
    Scott’s dead right about stopping trading because we are endeavoring to learn
    productively but the emotional roller-coaster can be poison to that process. I
    think I need to write myself a design report brief, study, paper test and write
    then a report. Something along the lines of ‘design process for a personalised
    rules based trading system with comprehensive plan for implementation’.Yep,
    that’ll give me a headache or two.

  • HeadNShoulder

    Thanks for sharing this awesome article

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    But useless – wavers see a break out and immediately think reversal instead of simply following the trend. They are so in love with producing counts that they lose complete sight of the priorities related to actual trading.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    _ _ __ _ _ _
    | | | | / _| | | (_) | |
    | |__ _ __ ___ __ _| | _| |_ __ _ ___| |_ _ ___ ___ ___ _ ____ _____ __| |
    | ‘_ | ‘__/ _ / _` | |/ / _/ _` / __| __| | / __| / __|/ _ ‘__ / / _ / _` |
    | |_) | | | __/ (_| | <| || (_| __ |_ | __ __ __/ | V / __/ (_| |
    |_.__/|_| ___|__,_|_|__| __,_|___/__| |_|___/ |___/___|_| _/ ___|__,_|

  • trader wantabee

    I’m not only reading. I’m recalling events, feelings, that brings a rush of emotions. I’m imagining what ifs, I’m imagining disasters, I’m beating myself up, I’m feeling sorry for myself. I’m realizing if he is writing about me and this was written 20 years before, then I’m not the only one in this situation. I’m finding hope in that sense of shared experiences. I’m making plans for the future. i’m making notes. I’m thinking faster than I can type, faster than I can dictate. It’s an ironman triathalon of energy exploding inside my mind. that’s my throbbing head.

  • trader wantabee

    just think of the money you could rake in with a newsletter that proclaimed a 5770% return a year!

  • trader wantabee

    hey evilas, i started an IB applicaition a few weeks ago, but it was very selective when asking about your levels of experience trading. i’m wondering if they gave you any hassle on your application, i.e. not approving you for trading unless you listed 1 million dollars in assets and 10 years trading experience? i have not moved forward on the application since then, I’m just wondering if they do that to keep newbies out of their platform, or if it even matters how you rate yourself on the application. lol this question paints me as a fool. asking for a friend*

  • hellbent

    All good stuff.

    I like the Mole’s message for today: keep it frosty.. haha

    My little icon carries a reminder too.

    Good luck on the path.

  • BobbyLow

    I think that they’re just covering their behind to not be perceived as leading people to financial slaughter. I don’t believe they actually check on any background information you provide.