What You Wish To Believe
When browsing the comment section I continue to see a lot of mental masturbation as to where the tape may be heading next. So in my ongoing mission to protect you all from yourselves I thought it once again was time for a mental reset. And this just may do the trick:
When you are studying any matter, or considering any philosophy, ask yourself only what are the facts and what is the truth that the facts bear out. Never let yourself be diverted either by what you wish to believe, or by what you think would have beneficent social effects if it were believed. But look only, and solely, at what are the facts.
In case you wonder who the heck this dude is: Bertrand Russell was one of the greatest thinkers of his time. Among other things he was a prolific philosopher, logician, mathematician, historian, and social critic. Frankly, they just don’t make them like this anymore. If you ever heard the phrase ‘we all stand on the shoulders of giants’ – this is who they are referring to.
So, now that I set the table – let’s talk about facts, shall we?
Seems like pigs may be able to fly after all. The greenback somehow managed to bust through some pretty significant resistance, much to the delight of this Euro paying expat. From a trading perspective this is a long and if you missed it I would strongly suggest you wait for a retest, which may not be out of the question. There is some support gracing us below at this point, first the 100-day SMA followed by a NLSL. Should all that fall apart then we’d have a failed break-out which in turn would be bearish.
Copper heading toward quite a bit support and a bounce here should happen given the current context. The bulls are not in trouble until 3.675 (I should have extended that diagonal).
Crude needs that 25-day SMA to hold or we may be talking trend change.
Of course you want to hear about equities – who can blame you – but I’m as confused as you are. Thus far this continues to look like a sideways correction – if this is supposed to resolve lower then it’s starting to run out of time. Eight sideways candles at this point – the bears simply can’t take this one lower it seems.
Much to my surprise we actually got a bonafide VIX Buy Signal yesterday. Which of course is followed by a push back higher just to add to the overall confusion. I don’t want to argue with this chart but the small BB range on the VIX right now is making me a bit skeptical. Bug nevertheless – given the signal the bulls still retain the home team advantage.
A few more setups for the road – please join me in the lair:
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This entry was posted on Thursday, February 7th, 2013 at 2:08 pm. Both comments and pings are currently closed.