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What You Wish To Believe

What You Wish To Believe

by The MoleFebruary 7, 2013

When browsing the comment section I continue to see a lot of mental masturbation as to where the tape may be heading next.  So in my ongoing mission to protect you all from yourselves I thought it once again was time for a mental reset. And this just may do the trick:

When you are studying any matter, or considering any philosophy, ask yourself only what are the facts and what is the truth that the facts bear out. Never let yourself be diverted either by what you wish to believe, or by what you think would have beneficent social effects if it were believed. But look only, and solely, at what are the facts.

In case you wonder who the heck this dude is: Bertrand Russell was one of the greatest thinkers of his time. Among other things he was a prolific philosopher, logician, mathematician, historian, and social critic. Frankly, they just don’t make them like this anymore. If you ever heard the phrase ‘we all stand on the shoulders of giants’ – this is who they are referring to.

So, now that I set the table – let’s talk about facts, shall we?

Seems like pigs may be able to fly after all. The greenback somehow managed to bust through some pretty significant resistance, much to the delight of this Euro paying expat. From a trading perspective this is a long and if you missed it I would strongly suggest you wait for a retest, which may not be out of the question. There is some support gracing us below at this point, first the 100-day SMA followed by a NLSL. Should all that fall apart then we’d have a failed break-out which in turn would be bearish.

Copper heading toward quite a bit support and a bounce here should happen given the current context. The bulls are not in trouble until 3.675 (I should have extended that diagonal).

Crude needs that 25-day SMA to hold or we may be talking trend change.

Of course you want to hear about equities – who can blame you – but I’m as confused as you are. Thus far this continues to look like a sideways correction – if this is supposed to resolve lower then it’s starting to run out of time. Eight sideways candles at this point – the bears simply can’t take this one lower it seems.

Much to my surprise we actually got a bonafide VIX Buy Signal yesterday. Which of course is followed by a push back higher just to add to the overall confusion. I don’t want to argue with this chart but the small BB range on the VIX right now is making me a bit skeptical. Bug nevertheless – given the signal the bulls still retain the home team advantage.

A few more setups for the road – please join me in the lair:
More charts and non-biased commentary below for anyone donning a secret decoder ring. If you are interested in becoming a Gold member then don’t waste time and sign up here. And if you are a Zero or Geronimo subscriber it includes access to all Gold posts, so you actually get double the bang for your buck.

NZD/USD – I’d be long if we get a test of that 100-day SMA.

EUR/JPY – I like the context here on the hourly and the daily. I’m long and won’t be short until it breaches that daily NLSL, which is good for four more days.

Ditto on CHF/JPY.

NZD/JPY – same idea as with the first two.

ZN – very interesting lunch higher and I’m tempted to grab a long here on a retest. Of course this could be another failed break out and thus I’m open to a short if it falls back below that 25-day SMA.

Silver – very very very good setup, mark this one on your calendar. There is a very pronounced trendline here and I am short as soon as it breaches that SMA.

Gold – I have been talking about this and I hope you guys pay attention. Look at all that intra-day volatility and look at the daily. This puppy is coiled up and ready to pounce! Use the trend lines as your trigger but here’s a caveat. Quite often we get a fake breach before it takes off in the other direction. You need to be prepared for that fact – so maybe start small and scale yourself in as the trade resolves in the right direction. Use Bernie’s Pyramid Calculator if you are mathematically challenged.



About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at various social media waterholes below.