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Yeah Bitch!
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Yeah Bitch!

by The MoleJanuary 30, 2014

And that is how you call the shots like a boss. Unlike some degenerate attention whoring wannabes who have make it their mission to drop by every few weeks with spurious and rather vague predictions the Mole calls it as it is. Here is where you buy and there is where you sell – today and not some imaginary day in the future. Everything else is just fancy talk and mental masturbation.

That’s right – I’m a wild boy! So don’t come back here once the market has tanked and pretend that you’ve loaded up near the top. I will stomp on you like the miserable pretentious bug that you are. If there’s anything immutable about this game it’s that it’s jam packed with shysters and pretenders. If you count yourself amongst them please move on.

Alright back in the real world we are making tepid progress but the odds are still hanging in the balance here as I’m not seeing any real mojo in the tape. Someone better throw someone a Red Bull or something. The SPX on the hourly is facing its upper 25-hour BB. It’s got to climb above the 1800 mark to get this thing to the next level. I’m currently short the spoos intra-day with a stop a few ticks above 1794 (roughly equals SPX 1800). Will flip if they make a run for it EOD.

A slightly different perspective on the daily volume profile. The spoos is looking like a four-cylinder and it’s time to kick it into fourth gear. There’s a shallow hurdle right above ES 1800 – if the bulls cannot pump it above it then they are officially FUBAR and it’s going to be a cold February. By the way, remember our old friend the volume hole at 1812ish? If we even make it this far I expect some heavy resistance, so the fat bear has NOT sung just yet. Plenty of opportunities to still take this sucker down.

On the NQ we’ve got a NLBL right in front of our noses. Good short here with a stop a few ticks above – mind you there’s also the 25-hour near 3559.  In between we are a bit in limbo – above the 25-day is bull territory and I would be long like Mandingo.

Wheat update – if you took this one on Wednesday morning then this is what you do. Close out if we close above 553 today – if not then move your stop to 558.5. Done. Campaign management is everything. Drive by charting paired with lofty claims is nothing. Keepin’ it real here at the lair.

But we’re just getting warmed up – more goodies below – please step into my lair:

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Honorable Mention:

Zero indicator today – very nice divergence play which got us back all the way to VWAP. If you trade the spoos without it you only have yourself to blame.

Cheers,


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at various social media waterholes below.
  • ridingwaves

    Mole’s ring decoder is the best but where all the Hot babe pictures wrapped in a chart….jeez…

  • Skynard

    Sweet Mole, thanks for that update on wheat. Seen an opportunity and jumped:)

  • Darkthirty

    Well that settles it, got a gap above and below

  • Skynard

    Bullish tape here, looking for the same break on SPX.

  • SS_JJ

    IMHO, the bear is everything but fat after almost 5 years of hibernation. I doubt however the bull can still see the shadow of his urinary knob after gorging himself all these years. If I had to choose, I’d rather bet some coins on the hungry and lean side rather than on the complacent one.

  • Skynard

    Lol!

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    urinary knob…impressive. Have you thought about post sub’ing?

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    Soylent?….that brings back memories. What’s next…panzer tanks and blitzkriegs?
    actually, periodicals rerun certain topics, why shouldn’t Evil?
    😉

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    In reply to Carrot, a move back up to the 20ma (1812’ish) would bring selling/resistance from the crowd caught with their pants down. Also a place for bears to mount a fresh assault.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p28964907271

  • SS_JJ

    post sub’ing? I did not get that.

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    when Mole flies out of town, and you create some commentary posts, similar to CS.

  • SS_JJ

    I probably get banned forever after my first attempt at it

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb
  • CorporalCarrot

    We are setting up for a beautiful inside day on the Dow today.

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    maybe tomorrow will be the inside, inside day, tightly compressed.

  • SS_JJ

    either LKGB and then up we go or we drop hard from here. I am still bullish though (for now).
    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p16168982351

  • Skynard

    Damn, anyone else short /NG?

  • SS_JJ

    bodysushi for you tonight 😉

  • Fearless

    After careful and serious consideration, I have determined that it is in my and Mole’s best interest that I no longer post or comment on this blog. It has become obvious that my trading style (focused on trends and long term with occasional forecasts) runs contrary to concepts that Mole tries to drive home here (setups only – purely mechanical). I will respectfully stay away from commenting so as to not interfere with it. As to a couple of commenter’s suggestions that I run another blog of my own, my response to that is ‘no’. It takes a lot of work and sacrifices to run a blog of evilspeculator’s calibre. With my own circumstances I cannot make that commitment. I have a huge amount of respect for Mole for being able to do what he does.

    Mole, as to your statement that no one can double his/her account in 5 days without betting a house, the response is yes it is possible, but stars must be really aligned.

    Day 1 (Wedneday January 22) – Risked 4% of capital on OTM call options participating in a short squeeze of Boeing on a break above $142.80 (as per my short squeeze rules); sold all calls and used only profits gained to buy OTM put options (Feb 22 expiry and Jan 24 expiry) on a hit of 14 year trend line. No broken short squeeze rules, although speculative play on the short side (negative divergence on multiple timeframes and prior lesson in AAPL were my rationale). DJIA already on a sell since January 17. 100% of initial capital was still retained.

    Day 2 (Thursday January 23) – Risked 8% of capital on OTM put options participating in selling of Boeing when I spotted weakness early (instinct yes, but also from statistics). Sold half when they doubled in one session. Puts from day 1 and day 2 are now sitting at combined 18%. BA broke below its acceleration line and the DJIA is now solidly below its acceleration line, the 20 DMA, and embedded in the lower Bollinger Band. No trend rules were broken. 100% of initial capital was retained.

    Day 3 (Friday January 24) – Due to the DJIA conditions on the previous day, I knew a down trend day was in the works. Coupled with BA gap down away from acceleration line, I risked roughly 15% of my capital. Reckless? Perhaps, but I’ve been in many trend days before to know it was relatively safe for me to do so. Again, sold half when puts purchased on day 3 doubled. Puts left over from days 1 and 2 combined with day 3 still open now sit at 50%. Profits taken on Jan 24 expiry puts at 6% of initial capital size. BA now broke the 20 DMA in less than 3 bars from its high on January 22 (strong trend), solidly below acceleration line and 20 DMA, DJIA embedded in lower BB. No trend rules were broken. I now have 106% of initial capital.

    Day 4 (Monday January 27) – I knew BA would back test its 20 DMA, so I did nothing about the BA puts still open. I added 4% of initial capital to buy more BA puts near day’s high (I must admit, I got lucky on this fill), again sold half when they doubled near day’s low. Left remaining puts all open. Open puts now sit at combined 47% of initial capital. BA still solidly below acceleration line and 20 DMA, DJIA still embedded in the lower BB. No trend rules were broken, 106% of initial capital was retained.

    Day 5 (Tuesday January 28) – More BA back test, but lower high than previous day. I risked 10% of initial capital near the completion of inside day, but sold half at break-even when I didn’t like my risk profile. Inside day formed, daily candle of BA closed more than 60% off its high. Probability of a break lower was higher. On top of that, VIX buy signal was in step 2, but my instincts and research from past patterns told me that the VIX buy signal would not complete step 3 the next day. BA still below acceleration line and 20 DMA, two consecutive unsuccessful back tests of 20 DMA, no trend rules were broken, and 101% of initial capital was retained. Open puts now sit at combined 50% of initial capital.

    Day 6 (Wedneday January 29) – BA earnings crap. Gap down 4%. Yes it was just pure luck on this one that it gapped down this much, but the open trades did not break any of my trend trading rules. I could have been stopped out on a good earnings, but I had 101% of my initial capital retained from the previous day. Whatever I got would have been bonus anyways. On the post earnings, I ran post earnings day stats to determine my exit point, and closed all except for half of open BA 140 PUT Feb 22 expiry I bought on day 1. At this point, I have already doubled my account after commissions. However, I stand corrected that it took 6 sessions instead of 5 sessions to achieve this feat. BA trend still down, and embedded in lower BB, which was why I left that deep ITM put open.

    If on day 1 my position went against me, I’d be stopped out at 2%, leaving me with 98% of my initial capital. I could tolerate that kind of ass-whipping on one trade, as a successful late year run in 2013 made that possible. Stars were really aligned for me during the lucky run. However, since you advocate trade risk management, I will no longer comment on this, even if I followed all of my trend trading rules and my own risk tolerance and have successful results. I must extend a huge thanks to you for some of the setups you demonstrated, as they made my methods even better once I integrated them. Much thanks to you, Scott, and Volar, and all others who provided support and criticisms during the past few years.

  • Ronebadger

    OK then…what blog WILL you be posting???

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    BinVe, at least that’s where he has been.

  • ridingwaves

    Bummer, I liked your generalized market comments, everyone should or could get nuggets out of them. I feel the same way about some Bio posts…I doubled money on 2 different trades I posted here 30 days….but that sector can be frightening for anyone..thus no one takes them…

    Best of luck in your trading

  • SS_JJ

    Nooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo..!!! That ain’t cool at all Fearless. Your opinion is extremely welcome (at least to me). Please reconsider.

  • bdoone

    Second that, also enjoy the input…now I think I’ll watch GOOG go whacko on earns

  • Skynard

    Ya, when they increased margin it was a good indicator. BASTARDS! That is the kind of thing that makes me want to fuck them real GOOD!

  • bullregard

    Good bye, Fearless, and thanks for all the fish 🙂

  • SS_JJ

    He is the only commenter that has more upvotes than actual comments. This should be telling how appreciative others are of his thoughts. I understand what Mole is trying to achieve but Jeezz there is no need to be so damn cold.

  • Ronebadger

    what you said

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    “Mole, as to your statement that no one can double his/her account in 5 days without betting a house, the response is yes it is possible, but stars must be really aligned.”

    Complete bullshit – Scott just saw your message and frankly he was laughing his ass off. Not surprised you would pull the OTM option story out of your butt. You bought February expiration options – do you have any idea what the theta curve on those bastards is? You made a HUGE bet on price, time, and volatility and you got lucky at best. Had you been wrong just by a week you would have gotten killed. These are not the type of practices we condone or preach here at Evil Speculator. You are still stuck somewhere in 2008 – we have since moved on.

    The pros call a 30% year a good one – and for a reason. Very good retail traders may be able to double their account in a year – showing up every single day and putting in the hard work. Wasting significant resources on lottery tickets is not how we roll at Evil Speculator.

  • Ronebadger

    FUTURES after 4PM (NY)?!?!- what did I miss?

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    I point out bullshit when I see it – keepin’ it real.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Did you double your account like Fearless? 😉

  • stovis

    AMZN

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    -9.8% after-hours….Oooooooh.

  • newbfxtrader

    Takes me about six months what Fearless can do in 6 sessions. Oh well.

  • SS_JJ

    yup, the tape today did not smell right. Glad to be still short.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Trading is not a popularity contest. Sometimes the best thing that can happen to you is to be called out on bad behavior/practices. I never criticized his charting or LT perspective. But he was completely dishonest about how he suddenly showed up with his ‘doubled his account story’.

    Had he posted a week ago with a clear SELL NOW AND HERE I would have taken it easy on him. Probably still given him shit for devoting a large amount of his cash on fast depleting lottery tickets. But fine – he would have been credible. That’s not what happened though – did it?

    Yeah, he’s pissed now and he won’t post here anymore. But perhaps I did him a favor and he may NOT blow up his account in the future. Happens to the best chartists – I really don’t want to throw out name but you all know. FWIW – he may have doubled his account today. What he doesn’t say is how often he blew half on hare-brained bets like these.

    So sorry for being Mr. Kill Joy – but I have little patience for b.s. – and if nothing else I do not want anyone here try what he did. I for one feel a responsibility to my readers and especially to my subs. He doesn’t – had he blown up yesterday I’m sure he would have not shown up here and fessed up to it. That’s the difference – I’m here – every day – whether I do well and especially when I fuck up. If you think I’m tough/cold on him – I’m much worse on myself.

  • newbfxtrader

    Well the zero nailed it today!

  • SS_JJ

    Agreed

  • newbfxtrader

    If any of the leechers want to know if the Zero gave a heads up for todays sell. Yes it did!

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    sure did 🙂

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Check’s in the mail 😉

  • newbfxtrader

    I think today deserves a video demonstration.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    I may whip one up. But it’s late – can it wait until tomorrow?

  • newbfxtrader

    Yeah sure. Its for the leechers anyway. I got home late but as soon as I saw the zero I hit sell!

  • Ronebadger

    do I smell a video?

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    If you guys stop being cry babies – perhaps tomorrow (my) morning.

  • antrodent

    Well, Fearless’ comments is the last good thing I was keeping coming to this blog. All these so-called “setups”, the “Scott” buddy (never was a convict, really – I have tracked him down to his real identity) – all this made-up shit is just a marketing ploy to scavenge some pitiful google add dollars.. All these “systems” from Ivan is just a bunch of noise.. You people just keep getting fooled bigtime

  • SS_JJ

    Look Fearless has proven over the years that he has been able to nail future long-term trends. When most were panicking in a sell-off, he was busy buying the dip, and giving bullish targets that were simply mindboggling to anybody else back then. He proved right almost every single time (except his bullish PM call). His approach is different from yours and does not compete with what you have established here. Same thing with Volar back in the day. The man bought grain (corn if I remember) future and sat on his trade for months, making over 60R with it by the time he sold it. In hindsight, I wish I had listened to those guys back in the day. There are different trading styles out there and not only yours banks coin. Whilst your approach may be the most consistent one, there is no need to bash what others are saying, especially when they provide a different and valid perspective. I however agree with your comment about position size.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    He did not accumulate LT positions. He claimed to play weekly options which expire in three weeks. THIS IS NOT ABOUT DIFFERENT TRADING STYLES. This is about self professed trading practices which I greatly discourage here on a daily basis. And it’s about making bold claims after the fact without the benefit of sharing it with us beforehand.

    IF I would show up here claiming a huge win without telling you guys my entry beforehand you would tar and feather me and then ride me out of town on a rail.

  • Skynard

    If my account was 5K, then yes:)

  • stovis

    How you got so many things wrong in one short paragraph is truly amazing. Now git.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    I’ve met Scott and he’s very real. I wouldn’t want to cross him frankly – he can be a very scary dude. About all the rest – fine – everyone has an opinion. Not going to get into a shit fight over all this. I have work to do.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    That’s got to hurt.

  • bullethead

    why? have you ever seen an entry/exit/stop posted beforehand?

  • Skynard

    /LE looks like it wants to re-test, will be short again on that 100 BB touch.

  • Skynard

    Attaboy:)

  • bullethead

    sorry I thought u were talking about the guy that above ssjj

  • Sean

    Thank you Mole! It’s been really frustrating to read the comment section for the last few weeks… Hopefully we can get back to first principles and see some more setups with good context and charts(!) BEFORE they happen… And @fearless, come on man, grow some thicker fur. You’ve been around long enough to know that some ex ante bragging about doubling your account by taking irresponsible risks would get you stomped a new one. I enjoy your comments because they add color to the blog (pure mechanical trading is rather boring), but you don’t provide much supporting data or trade suggestions. Maybe if you worked on providing more context, charts and reco’s before they happen you wouldn’t get slammed so hard. (Note: I realize I have not been pulling my weight recently, been working on other projects but still trying to stay in the loop and continue learning)

  • stovis

    Wait. Isn’t the green one the 100 BB?

  • Skynard

    Yes sir

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    ¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨

    ¨°º¤ø„¸F R E S H „ø¤º°¨

    ¸„ø¤º°¨ M E A T“°º¤ø„¸

    ¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°º¤ø„¸

  • Skynard

    /SB with dbl IP, long right now. That is one nasty wave and div:)

  • TexasRube

    How does that fit in with the daily very long downtrend, riding in the BB 25 lower channel and on the BB 100 lower margin? Truly asking to see why I should not be short.

  • Skynard

    You can be short, have you been short in an existing position?

  • TexasRube

    Yes should have taken profit yesterday, but rode today out near entry now.

  • Skynard

    Yes, had 3 trades recently on this symbol. Noticing it getting frisky now.

  • TexasRube

    A difference of time frames. I am trying to step back to multiday trades but end up wishing had closed out. On the road to becoming wiser as many of you are. Still banking coin, thanks to the good ideas on this board, but seeing a lot of missed opportunity. Certainly as my account is bigger, can feel more comfortable about each trade.Now for a longer view…

  • Skynard

    Start off small, one trade at a time. Do not over trade and think you are missing out on something. By god, take your time with baby steps. Ounce you have a trade in place you can sort of see it off then manage accordingly. You should want to be short /SB, the trend is down. Overtime these moves become exhausted. This is my style of trading to look for extreme conditions and bounce:)

  • TexasRube

    Thanks, I appreciate the support and guidance.

  • TexasRube

    Tempted to go long /NG, you?

  • Skynard

    You may see a pullback open to the hourly SL to muster up some strength if it is going higher. Can not tell you it is, just another trade.

  • http://www.ProfitFromPatterns.com/ Ivan K

    Larger view comes from weekly charts … also means less work and time away from the addictive machine!

  • Skynard

    You should not want to go long this symbol, these large moves back and forth is a topping pattern. Bulls and bears are fighting like a MF. Would look to get short. Better to wait a few days.

  • TexasRube

    As in all things, it seems one must master the small detail to be able to step back and take a longer view. I certainly have developed a keener sense in the last month or so on this board as well as reading your site. Thanks for all the material, comments and support and I hope to be around for a while.

  • TexasRube

    Reminds me of my dating days, wild and crazy, but not the one to bring home to momma….

  • captainboom

    I’m disappointed, but I understand. I had bookmarked some posts that you had made re: Trend Trading 101 and 102, on 8.28.11 and 9.2.11 respectively. Plus Trend Trading 103 on Bollinger Bands on 7.4.12. I notice those posts are not available, perhaps due to Mole moving servers, and I’d love to have that information for reference. If at all possible, before you go, could you send that information to me at andy at captainboom dot com? I’m learning the hard way that I need to capture posts I find valuable to a web archive.

  • Objectively_Bias

    That was an amazing call, mate. Nail on the fucking head. Well done.

  • stovis

    Damn. I need to stop sleeping at night.

  • Planspieler

    Hi Fearless,
    I do not want you to do more work – open a blog and publish every month or whenever you feel is appropiate , thereby presenting your ideas, is as time consuming as you have done on this blog….maybe one or 2 pictures would be nice…..i think you should do it…..call it “the occasional technician blog”….OR: please mail to planspieler@gmx.de if you would like to share your views this way….thanks and best of luck’