You Can Run But You Can’t Hide!
The greenback has been limping all over the place as of late but the good news is that it has managed to cling to its 100-day SMA despite equities switched into overdrive. While everyone is usually talking about yesterday’s news I usually keep my eye on the inconspicuous ones. The ones who drive everyone nuts for a while until the bus is empty.
As you can see it’s been failing its 100-day SMA for weeks now, but at the same time it’s also been working on support which I emphasized via a green diagonal. Thrown into the mix is the 25-day SMA which is going to meet the 100-day in a matter of days. The only assembly is now forming a wedge pattern which price appears to respect. Which leads me to conclude that we’re going to see a technical breach here shortly – one way or the other. As the saying goes – you can run but you can’t hide!
Before we get to the setups a quick side note: I wonder if I’m the only who thinks it’s cute to see the spoos kiss the 1500 mark today while volatility jumped noticeably. Someone may be getting a bit nervous up here but before we jump to conclusions let’s see if it holds up until tomorrow.
Natgas gave us a great entry earlier this morning – if you are a sub then I hope you caught this one as I put this one on the menu last Friday. What’s even more interesting is the LT context here – we just may be sitting on a juicy LT trade – observe:
More charts and non-biased commentary below for anyone donning a secret decoder ring. If you are interested in becoming a Gold member then don’t waste time and sign up here. And if you are a Zero or Geronimo subscriber it includes access to all Gold posts, so you actually get double the bang for your buck.
Both the weekly and the monthly panel are looking interesting. On the weekly we may (just may) drop through both weekly SMAs with one candle. Granted the week just started so a lot can happen. On the monthly we are below the 25-month SMA and we have three sessions to reverse.
Soybeans – speculative ST long here with a stop below the diagonal support line. Also observe the 100-hour SMA which is lining up with that diagonal.
Wheat – long on a breach of 780 and that 100-hour. If that happens we should also close above the 25-day SMA.
EUR/USD – inside day candle. You know what to do – use today’s range as your triggers.
Let’s look at some stocks. CF also painting an inside day candle plus it’s happening outside the daily Bollinger.
DRYS is painting something interesting – not sure what I should call this configuration. It’s not an inverse H&S in my book but I do like that neckline and would be either long on a breach or short if she fails right here.
MA – I would be long at the SMA with a stop below.
WMT – at the 25-day SMA but I would use the two short term SMAs as long/short triggers.
XOM back at its diagonal. So let’s try this one more time – long if she holds or short if we see a breach of the 100-hour SMA.