You Can Run But You Can’t Hide!

The greenback has been limping all over the place as of late but the good news is that it has managed to cling to its 100-day SMA despite equities switched into overdrive. While everyone is usually talking about yesterday’s news I usually keep my eye on the inconspicuous ones. The ones who drive everyone nuts for a while until the bus is empty.

As you can see it’s been failing its 100-day SMA for weeks now, but at the same time it’s also been working on support which I emphasized via a green diagonal. Thrown into the mix is the 25-day SMA which is going to meet the 100-day in a matter of days. The only assembly is now forming a wedge pattern which price appears to respect. Which leads me to conclude that we’re going to see a technical breach here shortly – one way or the other. As the saying goes – you can run but you can’t hide!

Before we get to the setups a quick side note: I wonder if I’m the only who thinks it’s cute to see the spoos kiss the 1500 mark today while volatility jumped noticeably. Someone may be getting a bit nervous up here but before we jump to conclusions let’s see if it holds up until tomorrow.

Natgas gave us a great entry earlier this morning – if you are a sub then I hope you caught this one as I put this one on the menu last Friday. What’s even more interesting is the LT context here – we just may be sitting on a juicy LT trade – observe:
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Both the weekly and the monthly panel are looking interesting. On the weekly we may (just may) drop through both weekly SMAs with one candle. Granted the week just started so a lot can happen. On the monthly we are below the 25-month SMA and we have three sessions to reverse.

Soybeans – speculative ST long here with a stop below the diagonal support line. Also observe the 100-hour SMA which is lining up with that diagonal.

Wheat – long on a breach of 780 and that 100-hour. If that happens we should also close above the 25-day SMA.

EUR/USD – inside day candle. You know what to do – use today’s range as your triggers.

Let’s look at some stocks. CF also painting an inside day candle plus it’s happening outside the daily Bollinger.

DRYS is painting something interesting – not sure what I should call this configuration. It’s not an inverse H&S in my book but I do like that neckline and would be either long on a breach or short if she fails right here.

MA – I would be long at the SMA with a stop below.

WMT – at the 25-day SMA but I would use the two short term SMAs as long/short triggers.

XOM back at its diagonal. So let’s try this one more time – long if she holds or short if we see a breach of the 100-hour SMA.



This entry was posted on Monday, January 28th, 2013 at 2:21 pm. Both comments and pings are currently closed.

  • Joe_Jones

    Mole, What’s your take on bonds? Price’s on a pivot even on the monthly chart for both 10 and 30 Y.

  • AMCabrera
  • molecool

    I don’t see anything pivotal there on a LT basis right now. The volume profile does not show us much down here so not a trade I would want to start guessing about.

  • BobbyLow

    That S&P Lady can make some great sounds but she is too full of STD’s for me.  :)

    I’ll stick to Forex and E-Mini’s.  Although the E-mini’s   were not much good so far today either.  From 9:30 AM to 10:30 AM, it’s prime the pump with some decent volume and then slowly turn the spigot to a slow drip throughout the day.  We’ll see how the next hour goes.

  • Darth_Gerb

    5min red candle, with a bit a volume to match.

  • Darth_Gerb

    I’m glad you mentioned time.
    I went at looked at the last really big SPX highs.

    those suckers were 5 to 6 months long before a roll-over
    dam! – I’ve got plenty of time.
    When mole speaks of process – we’re talking baby forming vs. baby making.


  • Joe_Jones


  • AmazingLarry

    ZNGA getting squeezed above the 50 and 100.

    This bucky move will be epic (as the kids say). 

  • Darth_Gerb

    at least some volume.
    are you planning for a gap fill?

    DRYs had a big one upper (day), and parked.  still there.

  • ridingwaves

    Late bulls to KERX getting schooled…avg daily vol..1.9million today 64 million…

  • AmazingLarry

    Daily 100 BB and weekly BB. $3 – $3.10.

  • Skynard

    Hehe, see if these late bulls get the same. Volatile trade today:)

  • Skynard

    Wow, what was that shit? Algo driven!

  • ridingwaves

    tomm.  action could be quick move up to draw some more latecomers and then down….

    I was surprised it held on to 6’s

  • Joe_Jones

    Market should be opened only 20 min a day. The first 5 and then the last 15min. That would give us human traders ample time to have a second breakfast, lunch, nap, work out and crap and still achieve the same volume of trades.

  • bdoone

    Credit Suisse was BIG buyer in SPOO pit

  • ridingwaves

    How about starting at 10 AM PST…it would be much easier to trade from Hawaii :)

  • Joe_Jones

    That would only allow for “crap” between the open and the close, but I can live with that 😉

  • Darth_Gerb
  • JackSparow

    Trend – Bear
    Bias – Short

    Opinion appreciated

  • bullregard

    How about 20 seconds? That is 20 billion nanoseconds, enough for a lot of trading volume from the colocated players. We could ask Mole to switch to microseconds and nanoseconds charts. Setup our trades in our puny bots, release them at 9:30, before you know (that’s before 9:31) we are done… poof. Look at the logs, count the wounds, get on with the day…

  • Skynard

    Looks to have lost that monthly trend line but do see a div on the hourly. Possibly re-test 100 daily @ 99.75. Looks like bear to me:)

  • AmazingLarry

    So is the decade…HUI

  • molecool

    How’s everyone doing? Having fun – banking coin?

  • molecool

    Today’s E-Mini session via the Zero indicator.

  • bullregard

    Yes, Boss… just JJ having some unfocused thoughts…

  • Skynard

    This algo got whip lashed but managed. Still short with AUD, EUR, Spoos.

  • JackSparow

    agree – 99.75 retest would be good

    6A close inconclusive

  • BobbyLow
  • Skynard


  • convictscott

    New post!!!!!!!

  • Darth_Gerb


  • bullregard

    He’s dead, Jim :)

  • bullregard

    Missed the train and went forth and back about whether to chase it… finally decided it still has a way to go. Entered short just a little, planning to pyramid on confirmation. P&F on natgas gives me a 2.16 target now.

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