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Zero Emotion
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Zero Emotion

by MoleMarch 17, 2011

This is Volar with a sentiment update. This may be “longish” but I think it is worth your time. Please pardon some grammatical errors- busy here.

ZERO emotion right now – keep your wits – ONLY rely on data. Do not get caught into an emotional trap. There is a time and a place to plunge, and it is not when retail is buying 14MM puts. If you are listening to the NEWS and chasing this down…. this tape will chop your account to pieces.

Logically, why traders listen to news to figure out why a market moved is beyond my mental scope. Do you think anyone in the news business – including CNBC guests touts – knows anything about the markets? Let alone why the tape moved? Media/news does two things: (a) make money by feeding useless emotion based information to suckers, because that is what sells and (b) give weak minded traders a reason to make poor emotional decisions.

I came from a quant finance background, and have built thousands of conditional equations… If you have not studied logic and reasoning – do so (LSAT, N.Taleb – great start). For details look up the narrative fallacy, post hoc ergo propter hoc, undistributed middle term, and induction fallacies.

*Two most common fallacies for trading: (a) Judging decisions by outcomes; (b) News Matters.

Ok – moving on to some investor sentiment data.

Even though I came from a “quant” and “fundamental” background, I only trade on sentiment and the tape.

Put volume does not increase on down days because people are rational- it increases because traders are emotional and irrational. The more emotion/panic I see… I shut my door, turn of my phone, put on my earphones, jam out, and proceed to take panicking traders money.

So on to the charts. Sentiment is dynamic, and it should be looked at in more than one way. E.g.) The absolute level; the change; seasonality; and divergence.

Ok lets start with seasonality.

Notice that this is price vs. its 200 SMA. So this is not a seasonal index, this is a seasonal momentum analog. I don’t like seasonal indexes for a long-winded statistical reason.To me, I see limited downside as the 200 SMA is at 1182 and the low on that chart (’97) equates on a close basis of 1205. So a bear’s best case for the next 40 trading days is 50 Emini points; the best upside is ’71, which equates to 1430. This is theory, but its better than coin tossing.

My point is that the kill shot of bull market years, according to this analog, would be summer or fall. And the math is bullish – not bearish.

Ok more seasonality, but this time sentiment. This is CBOE Equity CALLS/PUTS *100.

Notice that the same years align and the upcoming seasonal support.

Now lets look at my volume and time adjusted CBOE equity Put/Call data

So you see why i am hesitant to say plunge short here… everybody apparently has loaded up on puts AFTER the first two down days. Of course that is rational…

Now lets look at more put volume data. This is all exchanges OCC Equity Calls/Puts.

So you see, put buying is very extreme, “and we are in a bull market you know”.

Here is the change in that prior metric.

I refuse to just get emotional here… this correction has been anticipated and PANIC is not the time to get Cute on the short side.

Here is the amount of OCC total Equity PUTS.

Hmmmmm more puts than LEH… and LEH was in a BEAR market. Just shy of the flash crash and the 4 days following the flash… the DOW was down 1000 points. PANIC like this generally means the damage is done. I will just say that this is partly seasonal, but I had to show you the ~14MM puts to put things in perspective (pun intended).

OK now to a more sentiment related C/P ratio- the ISEE. Intraday I saw a 19 print in a 20min over 20min- right when she bottomed and I saw the -1441 $TICK. Remember the ISEE is a buy to open count- not the raw volume data like the CBOE or OCC total. If you want the 20/20min data- I can give you the excel macro VBA code – very simple.

Ok same thing over and over… we are nearing BUY Zones not SELL zones. Now look at the rate of change.. really? I am not going to plunge here.

So one of my 85 potential buy signals here… now onto the VIX.

When people panic the VIX spikes, but I personally like to compare it to other VOL measures, such as the $VXV for long-winded reasons. The VXV is the 3M VIX. This is (a) partly seasonal and (b) a great sentiment indicator.

So once again, Panic is amok. I refuse to panic.

Now onto sentiment surveys- these are delayed just a bit so take with a grain of salt.

Here is the raw index with Bollinger bands:

It is clearly a buy if we are in a bull market- especially if you consider that this data is delayed.

Here is the change in that index- which helps to time intermediate waves:

So like all the rest of the signals… hard to get in the mood to plunge short.

Now real fast…SP double bollinger

Now do any of these charts UNBIASEDLY say PLUNGE SHORT HERE??? I would say “no.” Yet, I may trade short in dips and dabs as we form the bottoming process, but I am not plunging short here. From surveys to put volume to seasonality, I cant objectively say this is NOT the time to plunge short. Jesse Livermore said, ‘cover short on panic days’ – I agree. Moreover, tops take time; consequently, I will wait for a setup that favors my odds of plunging this market. Also I will add that if I get the signal, I will go very long- not because I think the price is worth what it is worth, but because my data says too… Always follow your system- NEVER emotion or news.

Here a few of my daily plunge rules.
– Never ague with the tape or ask for reasons or explanations.
– Do not insist that the tape agree with you; the market is always bigger than your ego
– No news, ego, bias, or emotion
– 40% is beating the market’s psychology and 60% your own.

 

No bias or emotion, just coin.

Cheers,

Volar

PS .. No pride here-I love critique as it helps reduce my bias

 


About The Author
Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at various social media waterholes below.
  • I_got_Prechterized

    great stuff Volar.

  • Hungry_Joe

    Yes, good stuff there Volar. Will re-read it again. Keep it coming.

    And to quote a market wizard: “Pride is a banana peel, as are hope, fear and greed”

  • volar

    forgot to add TRIN

    but whatever, u get my point

    http://content.screencast.com/

  • Joe_Jones

    Thanks for keeping it in perspective.

  • nyse

    This is TERRIBLY helpful. Thank you.
    ps. where do you get all these data?

  • Joe_Jones

    highest TICK of the day: 984

  • Joe_Jones

    SPX Hourly resistance trendline did it again.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Same way as me – the hard way. Needs to be collected and then imported into Excel. Pain in the ass but very much worth it.

  • Joe_Jones

    I see some TICK divergence

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Guys – look at $UVOL in TOS (NYSE Advancing Volume). I think we are going to see a push higher here momentarily.

  • volar

    By hand.

    honestly if you read the title of each chart and google it- you will find 75% of that data.

    BUT good luck figuring my math on much of it- that is practice and likely not leaving my flash drive :-)

    The sentiment index is comprised of 4 surveys- and a bunch of math similar to bull-bear spread

    THE OCC put call stuff i did by hand since 06- so that u can do- but takes some time.

    All that being said, sentiment trader (29 US$) will give u the basic stuff and more than u will need.

    sadly, I download the TRIN data from sentiment trader to do that calc- and i got the normalized idea from MOLE- terrible sell signal tho

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Bearish?

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    What is your source?

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Please stop posting TICK data here until I verify your source. Thanks.

  • volar

    I have divergence on TICK- at 1000 on my IB and stockcharts.com and quote.com

    ****BUT only 800 on my tradestation

    TRIN strait down to 0.65 and VWAP not breached (YET)

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Highest TICK for today was 869 at 2:55pm EDT.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Have you ever done any work on TICK range assessments? I have some pertinent theories…

  • Joe_Jones

    Stockcharts

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Please do not post them here. The data is not reliable enough for scalp or swing trades.

  • volar

    Not really.. tis the poor reason i use Tradestation. Simply bc it has good data.. but i am very interested.

    It apears all the cheap stuff had the same $TICK tho… lol

    anywaysMOLE we need to build the ISEE intraday 20 over 20 calc on to ur website

    http://content.screencast.com/

    it is great intraday indicator

  • Joe_Jones

    OK. Keep them for myself.

  • raised_by_wolves

    We may see a move down now because /TF to /ES and /NQ to /ES were diverging from /ES on the up move.

  • volar

    what broker do u use? dont have to say if u prefer

    but hell my IB looks just like stockcharts…. but my tradestation data is very similar to moles it appears- he uses DTN i think

    BUT anybody know how TOS TICK IS???

  • Joe_Jones

    Big boys want to keep some fun for tomorrow

  • raised_by_wolves

    Thank you, Volar. You have not only shared valuable information that I won't have otherwise, but you have also written an inspirational (for lack of a better word) piece that both shares similar motifs with Mole's and Scott's and compliments theirs.

  • Wave_Surfer

    Great visual clues to what the market wants to do Volar.
    Thanks for sharing your work.

  • raised_by_wolves

    Fuck what I said!

  • amokta

    I have to report some poor trading over last few days. I thought i would ride out any 'minor' correction in silver/spx, so held longs longer than i should have (having convinced myself that the only way was was up!). Not a total disaster, but profits built up previously eroded into.
    -so where did i go wrong?

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    You mean 'complements' – when you resort to ass kissing, can you please get it right at least?

  • BobbyLow

    LOL, I thought we might stall after the 3 PM $UVOL had 2 Dojis follow on the 5 Minute. I was going to say something about that it might fail but you had already done so. So I guess better you than me. :)

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    TOS tick is not reliable either. Been there done that.

  • raised_by_wolves

    Yes, thank you for pointing out my error.

    By the way, Molecool is a person that completes and brings us to perfection; Raised By Wolves is a person that praises and admires Molecool. :-)

  • BobbyLow

    Volar thanks for putting together all the data for this post. I appreciate your effort.

    I had to laugh when you mentioned Taleb though. He is one smart dude but the one book that I read by him was about as terse as it gets. I was more into the “Touchy Feely” Classes in college and struggled with the technical stuff. :)

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    I was kidding of course. Wasn't sure if you caught that (he's a bit slow).

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Quite a sentiment swing. Hey, how do we get 20 minute data as a stream? Do they sell that?

    Maybe we should try to somehow recreate it. I wish I could get a reasonable a data source from ISE.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Please report to the Evil Speculator dungeon for a flogging.

  • BobbyLow

    Speaking of -$DVOL+$UPVOL, Today's reading from TOS is a Positive 6,450,130 and yesterday's reading was a Negative 12,038,030.

    Does this mean that today was just a DCB or a harbinger of things to come? Tune in tomorrow for the next clue.

  • DarthTrader

    TOS

    Hi Tick is 1052

    Lo Tick is -1068

  • volar

    way to simple for that mate.. i use a macro in excel to grap the screen and run the 20 min put call

    very very simple- but prob prob hard to embed.. have been tracking this for 5 months and it works decent

    i like to sell the 500+ and buy the <70ish

  • volar

    thx mate.. what did u meant by

    “valuable information that i won't have otherwise”

    do u mean would have not shared or would have not seen?

  • volar

    u read dynamic hedging tho?

    that book is all math and crap- but interesting

    BUT read the piece about news from DarthTrader or the piece in the black swan

    or curtis fait mentions it in wayoftheturtle as welll

  • nyse

    Thats great man. Learning a lot. Thanks again.

  • raised_by_wolves

    All I know is that risk assets such as RUT have been underperforming safety assets such as SPX almost the entire day. I don't know what that means if anything.

    It's a situation that I don't really know how to trade when the risk assets are underperforming but positive. I know what to do when risk are outperforming and positive or underperforming and negative.

    http://content.screencast.com/

    It was mean reversion in a controlled manner, a long-grade downtrend for risk assets relative to safety assets without a hint of panic.

  • raised_by_wolves

    More stubborn than slow.

  • ReflationaryRoad
  • Joe_Jones

    Silver is a bitch when it corrects. My advice: stay out until correction in SPX is over. Watch for strength in price movement in miners like HL before jumping in back again.

  • amokta

    :-) Its unfortunate, as i had been doing well (trading trend days, not placing trades over more than one day, slow & steady, but then i started turning into The High Roller, holding onto losing positions!)

    I think i need to re-read CS's posts again

  • amokta

    Good advice, thanks (i had opps to get out at good prices, as it bounced up twice, but then you think to stay long)

    p.s i hope you get your tick problem sorted out :-)

  • BobbyLow

    I don't know but it looks like you picked a direction and stuck with it too long.

    I'm sticking with my positions but I'm hedged. I think a lot of traders might think I'm too conservative but when I look back, (and you have to look back in order to learn from mistakes) I wouldn't have come anywhere close to the losses that I had in 2010 if I had put together trades the way I'm doing them now. I actually would have made money.

    The one thing that I rarely get now is instant gratification. But I have confidence and patience in what I'm doing and believe will eventually pay.

    Now back to you. About the only people I know of that can trade Silver and be consistently profitable is RBW and CS. For me that stuff trades even more insanely than the regular market. So if I traded Silver and had profits, I would probably take them very early before they took them away from me.

  • Joe_Jones

    Collar works miracle: I stopped scratching.

  • mothwhoflysbackwards

    gratuitous? dress in leather and you can charge 200 an hour! whatever happened to the entrepreneurial spirit in this country?

  • amokta

    Thanks BobbyLow.
    I think when you have a run of successful trades (whether by good trading or just luck), i think you get a false sense of invincibility – I think thats why CS sticks to a mechanical (ish) trading system (of course there a bit more finess that he applies too)

  • amokta

    :-)

  • raised_by_wolves

    Mole opened my eyes to momo indicators; Scott opened my eyes to price action rules; you are opening my eyes to this sentiment and seasonality shit (shit in a good way).

    I'm not going to attempt to copy what you're doing (right now anyway) because I'm kind of in the middle of working on some stuff of my own.

    I meant that I would not have seen this information because I don't have sentiment trader and am too lazy, er I mean busy to google your chart titles these days.

  • volar

    well i appreciate the compliment…keep up the 1.5mm ratios and counting..

    silver is a good one for seasonality i believe.. maybe seasonality of SPX/Silver..

    not hard to make :-)

  • convictscott

    Volar your work constantly amazes me :-)

  • volar

    tuche

  • raised_by_wolves

    My number one tool is this:

    http://content.screencast.com/

    Guess how I use it.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Good thinking – I will add it as a separate subscription.

  • amokta

    Not sure! But it has all the key indices/vix all in one panel

  • ronebadger

    IF, we HAD to report bum trading on this site, I'd be posting twice a day!

  • raised_by_wolves

    Yes, what else do you notice?

  • rg64

    hry

  • convictscott

    “Having convinced yourself that the only way is up” – *Anything* can happen in the market, staying alive to every single possibility at all times is the trick.

    Recently I had a big open profit wiped out, and it started off a subtle thing where I have been trading badly by my standards ever since.

    I urge you to not repeat my mistake. Once one bad trade happens, there is a tidal pull to try and “fix it”

    From a technical perspective the pullback is only to the 20 EMA, nothing at all to indicate change o trend. Its holding up much better than equities, yes?

  • convictscott

    Silver trades really well on the daily patterns, intraday its tied to gold and to “risk assets” so it get whipped around and I find it untradeable. RBW is a wizard with that shit on 5 min charts, I have no idea how he does it.

    I take long trades in Silver, short trades in Gold, and stand aside when the evidence is mixed. The same patterns I use in everything

    Works really well, and I made some improvements on my ideas recently based on what another trader observed about it being a manipulated market, where the big boys allow corrections a little further than normal, suck in the shorts, and then overwhelm them.

    Silver is a tiny market, a fraction the size of gold, which is also a tiny market (the goldbugs are wrong about gold being used for currency, there just isnt enough of it unless its valued about 100 times what it is now) Big boys wash ita

  • convictscott

    For all my finessing exits, actually my most profitable trading has been following pure mechanically

  • rg64

    btw nice post volar

  • convictscott

    There is an inside day on $spx. Pay attention to a break of the high, with the increase in puts over the last few days a retail trader slaughter looks possible

  • volar

    thx mate

    seems to jive with how u think- just less subjective.

    But i do know where u come from by looking at headlines- I do the same every day.

  • volar

    Yes i noticed that.. not that i predict.. but i think big bounce…. then dome retest… then some big sellloff

    then bottom

    we started a bear monster with news and it wont die in one day.. they will at least try to sell one more rally?

    So buy retest, sell retest, buy retest in my perfect world 😉

  • raised_by_wolves

    “The crap is about to hit the fan [. . .]”

    Volar's work indicates the crap hitting the fan probably won't affect U.S. equities immediately. Essentially, his thesis is that too many people are panicking right now, and he gives seasonality and sentiment evidence that says this probably isn't bearish.

    My own perspective is that a flash crash can happen anytime because the market structure was broken and superglued back together and therefore remains fragile. However, when everyone is expecting a flash crash, how likely is it that we'll get one?

  • aussiebinlaughin

    To keep up with the relative daily rate of change between gld/slv vs spx?

  • volar

    exactly.

    besides. News does not matter.

    when sentiment cannot get more bullish.. and put volume disappears (more than seasonal)

    and price cannot make a higher high

    then we have issues- regardless of actual fundamental data- the news will only report what is bearish anyways when the market turns :-)

  • BobbyLow

    I traded SLV a couple of times and won on it both times for a buck or two. But that thing is all over the place and you're right it get's whipped around and is something that I choose to stay away from.

    But RBW with his Ratio Charts seems to have a handle on it and more power to him.

    Glad to see you back BTW. I took a couple of days off after not following my own plan and screwed myself out of some serious gains.

    I'm hedged but remain slightly Skewed to the Bearish Side. Again this is on a Swing Basis and all I want is for a direction to stay in place for awhile. I still currently rate SPX, NDX, and INDU all Bearish. I don't have a clue what will happen tomorrow but I'll continue to reevaluate my positions each day.

    I was beginning to really hit a sweet spot until today's retracement. But it was really no surprise. In the mean time, I'll remain patient.

  • amokta

    Thanks CS, yes there a tendency to go back in rapidly try to reclaim lost ground. Maybe better to make camp and regroup first

    All things said, silver was holding up, but as we know, it could fall further (i think someone said wait until spx correction over before trying long silver again).

    Im just going to trend trade intraday basis (for spx, maybe silver too) for now

  • amokta

    Im at a loss (pun intended!)

  • raised_by_wolves

    Yes, you have the general idea. I'm going to see if Amokta can flesh out the specifics now that you've supplied the general idea.

  • raised_by_wolves

    Read Aussie's reply, forget all the other symbols, look at this . . .

    http://content.screencast.com/

    . . . start using your imagination, and pretend this is the beginning of the trading day.

    Even in its static state the screen shot is extremely informative. What is it telling you as it is? What could it be telling you if the % change moves up or down and the order of the symbols change?

  • amokta

    risk on/risk off status?
    copper leads others follow?
    pms weakee than spx, which are weaker than copper

  • OldChicago

    What is DCB?

  • BobbyLow

    Dead Cat Bounce

    An old market saying about a Bounce after a Large Sell Off that has no follow through.

  • OldChicago

    Like stubborn me thinking that XLE will actually come down from the moon. I am on the wrong side of this fence, know it, but just can't pull the trigger!

    I went long on Q's yesterday near bottom, another drop stopped my out. I was right, but early. That made it wrong :( Guess the key is disciplines.

  • Joe_Jones

    radioactive plume to hit Southern California late Friday

    http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    uh, I think I wandered into the subscription area..
    whom do I write the check to?

    (good job)

  • volar

    so I write a whole piece on WHY news is irrelevant- especially when everyone is bearish..

    and u go to the NY Times on me?

    C'mon Joe- you are now trading on good unbiasedness- and you are trading for a living-

    dont go to news on me here… just stick to your plan- of rules

    Either the IB's selling those calls make money or you get your piece. GET your piece JOE. When ur rules say sell- sell, when they say buy, buy.

    But watch for the potential for trap here….

    believe it or not the most bearish news is at the bottom- most bullish at the top.

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    how many days were we inside the Mar 1 candle, forever.

    tomorrow is OpX Fridaaaaay.
    muwaahahahaha.

  • volar

    thx mate

  • volar

    YEN TANKING

    168 pips.. no 250 AH PIPS !!!!

    FLASH UP???

    DOLLAR NOW MOVING WITH ES??

    62 pip AUD AH move +

    WOW AUDJPY UP HUGE!!!!!

  • volar

    make thaat 300!! YEN SOUTH PIPS

  • Joe_Jones

    Thanks. I posted the link not for a trading purpose but just for general knowledge. Don't worry I got the message about the news don't matter. If I were in SoCal I would pack my shit and go trade way way farther away.

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Mole's in LA.
    or maybe the Mohave!
    Frankly, 'miniscule' isn't very data related. less than an dental x-ray?
    dam, I hate being part of the flock.
    bhaaaaaaa.

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Did someone say 300?
    http://www.gerardbutler.net/30

  • Joe_Jones

    BOOOO YAHHH!

  • OldChicago

    I noticed something different today – Indices and ETF sentiment # is higher than individual stocks. It used to be the other way around. OPEX effect?

  • volar

    LOL epic .. epic moves in YEN

    once a decade

  • OldChicago

    That is really DIRTY. The after-market has just closed. No place to run for Dollar shorts ….:(

  • OldChicago

    By the way, Volar. That is some awesome report.

  • volar

    what do u mean buy the DX futures!

  • volar

    thx man appreciate it

  • volar

    nuttier than squirrel poo

  • skynard

    Just caught /6S for a dive. Wow! Nice candle!

  • OldChicago

    ES is rallying with /DX. How is that?

  • Joe_Jones

    -<:-p

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Interesting candles in the EUR/USD, AUD/USD, etc.

  • volar

    AUD JPY my friend! and OIL GETTING KILLED!

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Nice moves – just as Scott suggested.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Or was it you? Or me? Someone suggested that currencies were over done yesterday night.

  • OldChicago

    ah… thx.

  • raised_by_wolves

    You hit the main bullet point when you said, “pms weakee than spx, which are weaker than copper.”

    Now, imagine yourself formulating a plan based on this information. What would your plan be? What do you think my plan would be?

  • volar

    CS i think..

    but i did say the DX would not move with ES

  • http://twitter.com/RoastBeeph RoastBeeph

    Nice, I am glad I moved my stops in my short Euro trade. I hope I can ride the euro short for at least a hundred pips or so. Looking good so far.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    I accept cash and all credit cards. Also, send me your first born – I am running low in slave labor.

  • convictscott

    Guys currency moves right now smell like BOJ intervention. Thats not natural

  • Joe_Jones

    I don't think we have to take any direction for granted until the US market opens on Friday

  • lululopez

    In the last hour: The G7 statement adds: “In response to recent movements in the exchange rate of the yen associated with the tragic events in Japan, and at the request of the Japanese authorities, the authorities of the United States, the United Kingdom, Canada, and the European Central Bank will join with Japan, on 18 March 2011, in concerted intervention in exchange markets. As we have long stated, excess volatility and disorderly movements in exchange rates have adverse implications for economic and financial stability. We will monitor exchange markets closely and will cooperate as appropriate”.

  • volar

    but we did a 4 sigma on teh 40ema daily bollinger

    what is normal?

    http://content.screencast.com/

    this si a futures pair not cash- straped 4 time

  • Joe_Jones

    Now the EUR is being bid

  • http://twitter.com/RoastBeeph RoastBeeph

    Scientist who has a 75% success rate at prediction major earthquakes is now predicting a major seismic event to occur in California sometime between the dates of the 19th and 26th of this month.

    http://politicsandfinance.blog

    Ouch if true.

    And yeah, EUR went straight back up. WTF?

  • Joe_Jones

    I can hear some FX trading desks blowing up right now.

    And good assets are being liquidated…

    Black Friday anyone?

  • Joe_Jones

    EDIT: being sold.

    Ah, whatever…

  • volar

    This is a white friday LOL not black :)

  • ronebadger

    Volar, nice post, interesting analysis…I wish I could understand and/or absorb it all. And yes, the news DOES MATTER. When I get the news in the morning that the overnight markets are down 20%, it will matter…

  • ronebadger

    It's just a prediction. Wait for the NEWS of it happening (it might matter)

  • convictscott

    Dont stand in front of the moving train. Either trade with the central bank intervention or wait for it to blow over.

  • convictscott

    thanks

  • convictscott

    You Sunday, me yesterday

  • volar

    lol good point

  • http://www.marketanthropology.com Market Anthropology

    “Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication.”
    Leonardo da Vinci

    why inflation expectations will tame – in under one minute.

    http://www.marketanthropology….

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    If my roof falls on my head it does matter to me, yes.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Two strikes and you are banned, my friend.

  • raised_by_wolves

    You mean twice a year, not once a decade. . . .

    http://content.screencast.com/

  • raised_by_wolves

    One of the reasons I like NFLX + BIDU + PCLN + AMZN + AAPL so well is that it produces a very clean chart with features such as 13 consecutive higher closing months. . . .

    http://content.screencast.com/

    Zoomed in, you can see that there is a significant high on the monthly chart that could develop into a retest variation sell. Essentially, that high needs to be retested. I guess that's the case for most all of the indices too, but this chart made it especially obvious because of that long candle wick.

    http://content.screencast.com/

  • http://twitter.com/RoastBeeph RoastBeeph

    Is anyone still currently short EUR/USD and if so, have any plans to get out of your position soon? Thanks.

  • nyse

    These charts of yours are really great. Very helpful ratios, and awesome colors.

  • convictscott

    Trade idea – 60 min hammer candles on everything fx.. I like audusd

  • convictscott

    Its currently an inside bar on the 60 and a potential retest variation sell. So there is both LONG AND SHORT potential on the 60 min. IMO I would not want to be long on a break of 14074 and I would hold and see what happens on a break of the hourly low.

    To me this trade is a coin flip. I hate coin flips.

  • SW6

    915 is what they are showing now at end of day for the TICK high. (Thurs. March 17 session)

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    was, got stopped out just watching…seems that Euro is benefiting from the USDJPY intervention…

  • amokta

    Struggling to see what you mean. If copper leads, then perhaps you could consider long trades on spx or PMs

  • volar

    CS,MOLE the Euro is outiside 40EMA bollinger bands.

    IF she does not embed… and she cannot make new high …and hits LT trend line

    this will be fun as crap

    so looking at 142

    also that should put bucky on that fib support u were talking about..

  • Niktus

    Excellent post! Really good stuff. Thanks.

  • skynard

    The squeeze is on, those SPY calls should start to see some activity if VIX weakens today.

  • per

    Fantastic post! :)

  • Wave_Surfer

    I guess we are waiting for more of the tape to paint in order to get more of an idea of when a short term high is in?

  • BobbyLow

    Days like today remind me of why I want to be hedged. In Pre Market, TOS shows the Account Value of my Short Stock in Real Time but of course it does not show the new value of Options until after they Open. So in Pre-Market without allowing for how my Option Values would eventually adjust, my account appeared like a giant shark had taken a massive bite out of it.

    Then shortly after the market opened, my Option Values began to adjust and about 80% the massive Shark Bite healed itself.

    I'm at the point now where the Pendulum has swung back and each thrust upward in the Indices become less and less painful. Actually with about another 1/2 % increase in the Indices, the Pendulum would Swing back into Profit to the Long Side.

    So here we go again with these wild swings. There was a time when close multiple Large Swings to either side were signs of an Intermediate Trend Change. But with all this government intervention, who knows?

    And as I finish writing this, the Market seems to be giving back some of its early gains and my account is getting closer to even on the day.

    So as the Carnival Barker might have said about the Markets, “Step Right Up Ladies and Gentleman, Where She Stops Nobody Knows. . .”

  • volar

    THX… seems quite relevant today.

  • raised_by_wolves

    So, one of the themes right now is that NDX is underperforming SPX. If you check the charts, you see that both triggered inside day buy signals but NDX barely did so. If you were going to short an indice today, I'd say NDX is probably the one. Since you like trading individual symbols, you would look for a weak leader in NDX. AAPL for instance.

  • volar

    http://content.screencast.com/

    VIX/VXV is turning out to be somewhat reliable?

  • raised_by_wolves

    Alternatively, if you were going to long an index today, you would long RUT based just on observing the quote box (verify with a chart).

  • ds2

    Q filled its' gap.

  • raised_by_wolves

    Forget copper for now and just compare equity indices to begin with if you are interested in practicing the relative strength from the quote box method.

    Although it is reasonable to expect some rotation of strength intraday (e.g. INDU is outperforming RUT little now), often a theme persists over the course of the entire trading session (e.g. I bet NDX will be the dog the entire day but if it makes a strong comeback that too tells you something).

  • volar

    that confuses me, but i will have to look at it

  • raised_by_wolves

    Maybe I'm just crazy. :-)

  • raised_by_wolves

    You're not out of the woods yet, buddy. Could be spike 1 of n.

  • http://thedailyeminitrader.com Keith

    YMM111 next downside target is the 11790 level….

    Keith
    thdailyeminitrader.com

  • volar

    I agree.. I actually think it is possible to test low in ES or even make a new low

    those bears who bot 14MM puts will likely not give up easy.

    I was saying it nailed the bottom- aka cover short

    My next move is short ES- likely M or T as the VIX generally gives it one more try

    so 1 of n is my view as well

  • Joe_Jones

    is that a double top on the 5 min chart?

  • http://thedailyeminitrader.com Keith

    I just saw it as the late buyers who gave up their positions…as such 11790 was just the next probable downside target where I expected buyers to be positioned at.

    Keith
    thedailyeminitrader.com

  • raised_by_wolves

    Gotcha. Yes, it was a reliable signal to cover short.

    I'm looking to potentially trade an AAPL inside bar sell setup. It's been a long time since I've traded a corporation. My relative strength rules permit it. So, I'm crouching tiger.

  • raised_by_wolves

    Went short NFLX instead!

  • volar

    OK Euro breaking 15min pennant

    i would love to short EURO after Pennant makes move- still would like to see it top at resistance of the daily however

  • volar

    NICE! grreat idea

  • raised_by_wolves
  • Joe_Jones

    Lower BB turn up on the 15 min SPX. Could signal the end of this a.m. up move.

  • Joe_Jones

    Well… I smell a dead rat

  • captainboom

    Would that be on a daily chart? There is the potential for a TD sequential buy setup to complete on Monday. Looks like an 8 count may complete today. I'm not seeing much other strength in AAPL, but I'm no expert.

  • http://channelsandpatterns.blogspot.com/ springheel_jack

    Lovely chartwork Volar.

  • raised_by_wolves

    AAPL's inside bar sell has already been triggered on the daily. It hasn't been triggered yet on the 60 minute. I don't know what Scott would think about this, but perhaps one could set the stop based on the 60 minute and a target based on the daily.

  • Joe_Jones

    Is the DX officially fucked now that 76 has been breached to the downside?

  • raised_by_wolves

    Thanks buddy. Looking at that indicator on a much shorter timeframe, there is a possibility for it to get embedded in the lower Bollinger Bands and go down to test the February spike down. Another possibility of course is a short squeeze!

    http://content.screencast.com/

  • raised_by_wolves

    ¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨¨¨°¤º¤ø„¸¸„ø¤¨
    ¨°º¤ø„¸ STOPPED „ø¤º°¨
    ¸„ø¤º°¨ O U T “°º¤ø„¸
    ¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„„¸¸¸„„ø¤º°º¤ø„¸

  • ds2

    Bull flag or slow breakdown?

  • Joe_Jones

    we have a nice set-up on 30 min SPX

  • volar

    thx- touche

  • Joe_Jones

    If we rally from here, bucky is dead, oil, p.m. and other commodities go to the moon: sheep wins.

    Would the Bernank allow such thing to happen now?

    What are the odds? My money in on “the sheep gets poled as usual”

  • OllyVaradi

    Evening chaps, it's been some time…..

    Nice to see some of the 08-09 traders still here, and indeed that this site is still here. Capital has now been replenished on account of a boss who's incompetence and lack of knowledge in employment law knows no bounds. It was a pleasure doing business with him.

    Anyway, just thought I'd drop by and let you all know that I'm expecting some downside from yesterday's close at some point today. Can't see it happening right now, but at the risk of looking like a right titfer, I'm calling it now. Was expecting between 20-40 points downside (Dow) with a green close and a total range of circa 2%. Outside chance we don't see any downside, in which case we should see the Dow's range at around 180pts all on the upside.

    Need to fly just now….back soon.

  • tradingmom

    interesting triangle on the zero

  • volar

    EURO target reached- nice 50 pip coin on the long side

    142 I am top picking on any type of retest sell signal.

    ALSO WILL UPDATE FX COT AT 2:30-3:00 EST

  • http://thefxspeculator.blogspot.com Onorio

    Im getting a lot of negative divergences in the following pairs EURCHF, GBPCHF, AUDUSD, the JPY pairs are also getting some strength so i believe the risk trade might be ending.

  • ronebadger

    yeah, keep an eye on that for us please

  • http://thefxspeculator.blogspot.com Onorio

    Call me crazy but im shorting EURJPY @ 114.70, 30m sell signal SL at 115.40 with a 114.05 target.

  • Joe_Jones

    There is definitively a resistance trendline

  • Joe_Jones

    Crazies make coin too.

  • BearStearned

    Lookin like the bucky finally caught a bid. Lets see if it can have a nice steady move up from here.

  • volar

    LOL that should be someone's avatar

    Sopping out is almost like breathing here.. i just here *bing* and i know i am out 1/2 N and i move on like nothing happened.

    trick is to never take it personaly.

  • Joe_Jones

    TICK-TOC

  • volar

    Zero Triangle very interesting

    http://content.screencast.com/

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Awesome – gave you credit (kind of – hehehe)

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    I think that is one sweet setup – will put up a post about it right now (for Zero subs only).

  • Joe_Jones

    TradingMom called it first

  • raised_by_wolves

    TradingMom actually beat Volar to the punch.

  • volar

    we owe that to trading mom.. tho i did not see trading mom's comment before posted

  • volar

    correct.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    ¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨
    ¨°º¤ø„¸ N E W „ø¤º°¨
    ¸„ø¤º°¨ P O S T “°º¤ø„¸
    ¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°º¤ø„¸

  • amokta

    ¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨¨¨°¤º¤ø„¸¸„ø¤¨
    ¨°º¤ø„¸ O O „ø¤º°¨
    ¸„ø¤º°¨ /_ “°º¤ø„¸
    ¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„„¸¸¸„„ø¤º°º¤ø„¸

  • amokta

    empathic face or art fail?

  • tradingmom

    I went to Target and missed all the fun… My family has milk though…for whatever that's worth.