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ZeroFX Signal Update
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ZeroFX Signal Update

by The MoleDecember 8, 2011

Earlier today I sent out an email to all Zero subs after seeing signs of selling exhaustion on the AUD/JPY:

This is the screen grab I attached to the email. Not only was this a possible selling exhaustion setup, we also had a very conveniently placed NLSL nearby which allowed us to place a stop only a few pips below our entry – offering minimum risk. Now let’s see what happened to that setup:

Well, I can firmly assign this to the kick ass trade category. Not only took the AUD/JPY a b-line upward – it also bestowed us with an inverse buying exhaustion signal indicating that it was time to exit and grab a few pips to the downside.

Please show me any other indicator that gives you signals like this. And we haven’t even covered signal divergences yet.

The future is now – so don’t bring a knife to a raygun fight. If you are interested in becoming a Zero subscriber then don’t waste time and sign up here. A Zero subscription comes with full access to all Gold posts, so you actually get double the bang for your buck.

Cheers,


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at various social media waterholes below.
  • Anonymous

    brilliant!

  • Anonymous

    Mole, have you tweaked those signals since the beta? The bottom half does not look as sensitive as it was in the beta days.

  • Anonymous

    Great signal tonight! Giving valuable credit to ZL today as well to help with carry trades:)

  • Anonymous

    AUD/JPY – Next stop 78 level.

  • Fibz

    EUR/JPY faring better than AUD/JPY. EUR/AUD also seems quite (inversely) correlated to ES.

  • Anonymous

    How is that?

  • Anonymous

    How is that?

  • Anonymous

    /DX failed breakout & /HG support held

  • Fibz

    EUR/JPY hasn’t broken today’s previous low.

  • Anonymous

    We should see some action when the FX markets open in Europe. About 2 am EST.
    http://www.2011.worldmarkethours.com/Stock/index1024.htm

  • Anonymous

    We also received the exact same exhaustion spike from EUR/USD & AUD/JPY on the hourly:)

  • Anonymous

    bounced on all NLSLs

  • Anonymous

    This might be both watching tonight! Fat Finger Event!

  • Anonymous

    Just controlled market pressure on politicians if you ask me. Wary of a sticksave.

  • Anonymous

    audjpy is a 60 min retest variation buy on break of the hourly high. Also this is at daily ema confluence support (all ema’s from 20 -50 are crossing at this exact point)

    Good risk reward trade

  • Anonymous

    awesome chart mole – you strike again!   wish I traded forex –

  • Anonymous

    awesome chart mole – you’ve struck again …

    (wish i traded forex)

  • Anonymous

    trade never triggered

  • Anonymous

    clearing eur/jpy. 

  • Anonymous

    Europe is saved ! (again?)

  • spicestory

    thanks for that, but it’s triggered after 5 bars anyway?

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    I really thought I missed the kiss-of-death plunge opportunity at close yesterday.
    the bullish percent increase, several hours after close, gave me a glimmer of upside wonder.
    and here it is. up another notch (ring).

    http://i39.tinypic.com/ncdohx.png

  • Anonymous

    succubus.

  • Anonymous

    huh?

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    evil demon female form.
    he must have a bad trade on.

  • Anonymous

    Let’s see what the dollar bulls have to say about this malarkey:)

  • Anonymous

    Flirt and trading don’t mix well. 

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    yeah, you have to watch those Feelings
    😉

    http://i44.tinypic.com/jl5qhs.png

  • Anonymous

    LOL. I remember that chart. It still hurts when I sit.
    😉

  • Anonymous

    no no remember 1160. Instead of nightie night I called that a succubus. Night terror.

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    can you have Mole create a cheat sheet for you?
    I can barely keep up with the Southern Hillbilly speak.
    LoL.

  • Anonymous

    by the look of things, we may start close to where we left yesterday.

  • Anonymous

    haha very funny…

  • Anonymous

    why the /es collapse pre-market?

  • Anonymous

    Talk about deflation, GEEEZ!

  • Anonymous

    Dollar strenght my friend:)

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    50% retrace up.
    resumption of the down trend?

  • Anonymous

    More than a possibility or probability, could be a certainty? :-)
    Skynard points out $ strength indeed

    But what about Euro saved!

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    I give up.
    the Market is in a fit of death.time to put it down.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=e9t5ikxjAQ4#t=111s

  • Anonymous

    knocking half my usd/zar off. still a losing position went short at 8.10.

  • Anonymous

    http://content.screencast.com/users/AMCabrera/folders/Jing/media/aea8fa92-587f-4873-a666-d14fe45d48a3/2011-12-09_0952.png
    I think the Jehovah witnesses and the place of ill repute should do a co op together.

  • Anonymous

    weak 5 min zl and idiots hour = fade

  • Fearless

    Haven’t I told you all on November 30 that it’s not worth it to play this market until after December opex? Theta burn plus vega burn – I love it as an options seller.

  • Anonymous

    fading is so hard to do now. I think of fading as in art. Nice shades of black to grey to light grey. Not this market Black White Black White.

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    I thought you were talking to the subs!
    😉

    (GG piles on a whole load of respect to the Fearless scales of authority)

  • Anonymous

    my stop is dropped all the way down to 8.15 I could care less if it gets triggered I want out.

  • Anonymous

    Short SPY puts, 5min div:) Damn! a tad early.

  • Anonymous

    That sounded a tad biased AMC.

  • Anonymous

    Was about to follow the long side against severe misgivings.  I like to let the first half hour expire before deciding due to idiot hour.  After checking IWM, QQQ and DIA relative to SPY, I pulled back.  QQQ and IWM should be out front of a move if it has legs in my book – they are showing weakness relative to SPY and that has me smelling a rat.  I would not be surprised to see this market tread water right about here with sucker moves up and down to churn the tape and take people’s money.  Too many contradictory signals out there to have confidence for more than ten minutes!

  • Anonymous

    Let us see what happens after we touch the hourly 20 sma
    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=60&yr=0&mn=0&dy=10&id=p75829460639

  • Anonymous

    mother f**ker. If only I waited one more day to short usd/zar. whatever at least now Im almost in black. Well now in black.

  • Anonymous

    REpost from 22 hours ago

    Markets look like they are setting up a BIG move  sharp up and down
    moves shaking the tree to rid the machine of weak hands and multiple
    opps for strong hands to get on board.  I expect a solid rally back
    before the weekend then Lunar Eclipse/Full Moon on Saturday could signal
    time to make the move.  Down is my expectation but Stops are always
    called for . . .

  • Anonymous

    Not at all. Just this market is so hard to fade. I find it better to wait for full blown panic or irrational exuberance to place orders.

  • Anonymous

    Are you a zero sub?

  • Fearless

    Even if you were a Zero sub, inherent bias will still bite you in the royal behind. You chose to ignore the positive divergence on the hourly Zero on November 25. You only look for negative divergences.

  • Anonymous

    Did I ask your opinion, Mr. SPX 1500?

  • Anonymous

    Just realised daily zero chart is a separate to live panel!
    So how can zero 5min help me today (looking, but am seeing?)

  • Anonymous

    http://content.screencast.com/users/AMCabrera/folders/Jing/media/646176b1-2733-4b13-a8d7-78417dc9c61b/2011-12-09_1032.png
    Alright a nice bounce. But nothing to say OH WOW rally time. Just more fee making for brokers.

  • Anonymous

    crazy action..stick save city…1m blocks of spy being bought to hold it up against euro drop..

  • Fearless

    Just want to point a few things out to you.

    In my experience, criticisms actually made me better. I hope it’s the same for you. I wanted to point out that you don’t always just look for short trades. There is a good amount of money to be made on the long side, too. Generally speaking, long trades last longer and short trades shorter (albeit faster profit). In the case of positive divergence, as soon as they start to appear, you should be ready to book your profit. I always allow longer time for the negative divergences to form (I explained this in the dynamics of buying/selling).

    My bullish outlook doesn’t stop me from taking short trades, but it doesn’t influence me to chase rising tapes, either. I said very clearly in my post on November 30 (“Big Nasty Short Squeeze”) that I saw no edge in playing the tape either way after the DEC opex gain reversion already occurred so early. The only edge that I had was that I hold some stocks and I started to write covered calls above 1260. The tape this week, and possibly next week also, is for sheeps who likes to gamble on options. In my experience, this is the time to profit from theta and vega burns as an options seller.

    Don’t take it too hard, JJ. Criticisms sometimes do make us better.

  • Anonymous

    Playing the 1230 gap fill. Can not see the market higher without it:)

  • Anonymous

    aud finished IHS in overnight session and ZB hit right shoulder of HS,ES also made a overnight low around 1328 Dec,seems to me the correction is over and we will move higher

  • tradem4alpha

    IWM is clearly outperforming SPY (especially in the last 30 minutes). But it was also an underperformer yesterday, so it could only be mean-reversion in this pair. Currently in cash, no edge for a swing trade now.

  • Anonymous

    Did you see the email alert this morning?

  • Anonymous

    Run it up, Stop give bears a chance to load up.  Run it up again, Sideways action . . . Give bears chance to load up,  Spike into the Close hitting bears stops . . . Sell off on Monday . . . before the open

    Just a possible scenario that I’ve seen before

  • Anonymous

    Oh boy, another one of these moon shots.

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    SPX 350 day sma.
    gotta LOVE it. (and RESPECT it)

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p32138022127

  • Anonymous

    Dear resident astrologer, and will i meet a pretty french maid tonite :-)

    agree with you, ive closed out UK position just now before weekend, set tight stop on us mkt UPRO at 59.50 (entry at 58.53)

    Not entirely sure how to harness the beastly power of zero yet though

  • Anonymous

    Houston, the /ES has landed!

  • Anonymous

    You learn to ride the zero like so much else in this world . . . hours at the wheel.   How do pilots get qualified with hours on the Flight simulator then hours of coached flying time then Solo Hours. 

    Just work, wait, be confident it will come

  • Anonymous

    Don’t trust this move. Every move such as this was sold. Could be different:)

  • Anonymous

    Thanks!

    ‘Vorsprung durch Zero’ :-)

  • Anonymous

    It was a nightie night a classic one, almost a succubus.

  • Anonymous

    Added up here. Holy mama:)

  • Anonymous

    based on the zero action just now, would it be correct to say that one could have taken some actions
    (just click like if true, dont want to risk wrath of Mole, by discussing detailed  info, even thought i am now a sub!)

  • Anonymous

    took a short on the CAD, /6C  at .9806
    based on some several triggers on the short term (Volars’ 4 minute) chart
    a countertrend trade for the day

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Amokta is a sub now?? Wow, that’s like Christmas and a birthday in one!

  • Anonymous

    Looking at the USD/JPY  I cant help but think that the amount of energy it takes to move that thing up must be a juggernaut of trades. I think that the move up in it yesterday or really any large move up in that pair this past month has caused other negative correlate trades to be soggy.

  • Anonymous

    screw you yesterday, screw me today :(  VIX gave back all the gains in last 3 days. Complacency?

  • rhae

    SPY 1000 tick chart. Best to call this an inverse lightning strike for now. I have no idea when it might run out of energy…
    http://screencast.com/t/M8sSqYovQ

  • Anonymous

    yea he said he was a while ago. I remember when he signed up. JEez it no wonder you guys are confused about my nicknames for moves.. 😉

  • Anonymous

    Is yellow line your support?

  • TwinTurboRX7

    Which zero action are u refering to?

  • rhae

    no, just a marker top for the first move. I wanted to see what type of push it might get if busted… Red and Green for closest R/S

  • Anonymous

    At the recent /es high, the zero did not follow suit, suggesting caution perhaps (i.e. tighten stops perhaps)

    Of course, even in a trend day, pullback are expected

  • Anonymous
  • Anonymous

    DAX is acting like a lemur on steroids and amphetamines combined lately.

  • Anonymous

    I know this could get me banned with no symbols allowed..but DMND could be a great scalp or mid term buy….ton of trapped shorts, volume and news…

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Who made that rule? No symbols allowed? Didn’t get that memo…

  • Anonymous

    Thought I saw comment on it…thanks..
    inside bar on silver today also..

  • Anonymous

    German rules, and everyone is begging, except for the Brits.

  • Anonymous

    Beggars can’t be choosers. Brits can print. 

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    go NILE!
    40+

  • Anonymous

    short sellers right now…

    mommy…

  • Anonymous

    Lowering the stop in the damn whiffle bat swing and miss trade in the usd/zar. I will not add any other shorts to this positions till the half I took off gets neutralized by this half im keeping makes up the difference.

  • Anonymous

    I really hope someone can answer this for me, I really do not want to search around to look for it. Maybe one of you guys have it on hand already. But when do most of the current Greek bonds mature? Do a bulk of it roll off 2013 or mid 2012?

  • Anonymous

    http://content.screencast.com/users/AMCabrera/folders/Jing/media/84bfc1bf-2fb5-4a8d-a723-126e62d4fab4/2011-12-09_1410.png
    http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2011/05/09/563286/the-guilty-greek-maturities/
    never mind found it. Did we all forget about Greece already? Makes sense to push this thing out towards 2012 for the GRAND PLAN where a good portion could be restructured.

  • Anonymous

    where is everyone?

  • Anonymous

    Ok, why the late-day uptick in /es, spx

  • Anonymous

    What can you say, defineately F the bears day!

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    ¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨ 
    ¨°º¤ø„¸  N E W  „ø¤º°¨ 
    ¸„ø¤º°¨ P O S T “°º¤ø„¸
    ¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°º¤ø„¸

  • TwinTurboRX7

    I dont know… zero is climbing now too. Earlier I thought we have slight negative div on zero.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Was working on a post.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Didn’t you read the cheat sheet? On trend days we take divergences on the ZL with a grain of salt – especially tiny ones like that.

  • TwinTurboRX7

    Yes I got the moderate trend day alert too in the morning. However has since close my long and initiated short…i need to learn to let the long run further…

  • Anonymous

    Me too, but as Mole (and CS) say, on trend days, its a case of buying pullbacks. Of course, trends eventually end, so no harm in closing out longs, maybe trailing stops, or stop at previous spike low of hourly?? (i cant do trailing stops)

  • TwinTurboRX7

    I can set trailing stops, but the hard part is figuring out how much. With this much swings in the past few days, it is tough to set.
    Yea got at least 1R on my long, but now my tiny short is almost negative $100.