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Archive for December, 2010
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December 30, 2010

Happy New Year!

Okay, as we’re getting close to kissing 2010 a last goodbye it’s time for ole’ Mole to start switching back into productivity mode. The only new year resolution on my mind is for us stainless steel rats to continue banking coin and to avoid the plethora of traps that are being thrown at us on a daily basis. The past two years have forced me to up my game quite a bit and as such I actually in some ways consider the nastiness we had to endure a positive experience. Of course the biggest change for me was the realization that the long term window is way to elusive to be factored into a reliable trading approach these days – thus I have narrowed my trading window [...]

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December 23, 2010

Merry Christmas!

That’s right – I revel in being politically incorrect. It’s almost Christmas on my calendar and I enjoy responding to ‘Happy Holidays’ wishes with a Clint Eastwood sneer and a stubborn ‘Merry Christmas to you too!’. Anyway, after being pounded by a six day series of rainstorms the heavens suddenly opened up yesterday afternoon to bestow Los Angeles with a beautiful Christmas present:

Contrast that gorgeous view with the nasty weather Europe is having to put up with right now and you understand why I moved my Teutonic butt to California almost two decades ago. As much as I cherish the Christmas season – I can assure you [...]

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December 21, 2010

Santa Off The Launch Pad

This season Santa got a little help from an intrepid gang of gnomes over at 33 Liberty. No big surprises here for any of us naughty rats – after all the writing has been on the wall for weeks now.

Up, up, and awaaaay!! Oh wait – that’s Superman – never mind.

The VIX buy signals have been spot on as of late – it’s like taking candy from a baby. I for sure am on the extra naughty list this year. Ooops…

See, the bulls are doing this the right way. Whereas VIX painted a panic move to the upside in late November, thus pushing outside the 2.0 BB (and producing a buy signal) the bears are slowly riding this cart [...]

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December 17, 2010

Easy Now!

Let me begin this post by ripping your bear suit off after which I’ll hose you down with ice cold water and chase your naked ass around the block a little. There – feeling better now? Yes, I know equities feel like they’re about to tilt over and die. But we have been fooled in the past plenty of times with extreme measures abound. So let me be the broken record that keeps rubbing your dirty nose into this nasty chart:

Yes, there was a tiny drop off in the 20-day rolling total of floating POMO cash, but we remain firmly in record territory. Boy that’s a lot of outstanding cash. And even a fat drop would really matter anyway – as long as we [...]

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Cognitive Bias Carousel
  • Cognitive DissonanceCognitive Dissonance
    I had to think┬álong and hard about what exactly to post today without insulting at least half of my readership. As you know I have … more
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