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Archive for January, 2011
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January 31, 2011

Monday Snoozfest Wrap Up

And there you have it – the type of session both Scott and I predicted over the weekend:

Pretty solid positive Zero signal all day – one dip which was as weak as American draft beer and thus did not manage to take out VWAP. The subs seemed to be happy today, so all was well in the evil lair.

Geronimo did its thing and entered at the very low of the day – that’s the way we like it. Unfortunately the first candle moved so fast that I’m sure most subs missed that 1279.25 entry. For the record – this is not the norm and in most cases there’s plenty of time to take the entry near the alert’s entry price. [...]

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January 31, 2011

Snapping Rubberbands

While Scott is all about price patterns I’m more of an indicator guy. It’s just the way my brain is wired and instead of counting candles I prefer to sit down and simply write an indicator that actually takes candle patterns into consideration and produces trading signals (and stops) automatically. Yes, I’m lazy – I rather spend a weekend coding but then crack open a cold one and get an automated alert when a pattern I am interested in pops up. The other advantage of doing this is that I can also back test and optimize various settings in NinjaTrader, which often reveals rather surprising results.

Obviously I wouldn’t be the first to try something [...]

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January 30, 2011

Price tells a fascinating story

We move to the endgame for equities. About fucking time if you ask me, over recent months I’ve abandoned my favorite market (spx and es futures) for the greener pastures of metals and currencies, and if you follow the setups I have been posting here, you have been killing it just like me ­čÖé In fact killing it, burying it in a shallow grave, digging it up, and killing it again and again.

A few weeks ago I posted what would make me get interested in this market again. “A massive drop, that made ME WISH I WAS SHORT, then a sharp retrace to retest that high”

Do you think Friday counts as a “massive drop, that made me wish I was short”? Now I [...]

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January 28, 2011

Red Friday Wrap Up

Today was a pretty rough session – if you look at the chart it looks pretty clear in hindsight but the tape is changing and thus we need to also alter our outlook on how to use the signal in our trading.

The Zero dropped like a rock right after the open and the spoos right with it. As you can see prices started to pull away from VWAP (i.e. expanding their distance) which is usually a pretty bad sign and points towards a down trending day.

Two hours into the session I pointed out a divergence on the Zero Lite – see the light green support line I drew on the chart. In the past two years a setup like this has resolved over 80% of the time but today we [...]

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Cognitive Bias Carousel
  • Cognitive DissonanceCognitive Dissonance
    I had to think┬álong and hard about what exactly to post today without insulting at least half of my readership. As you know I have … more
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