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Archive for April, 2011
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April 29, 2011

Market Breadth

Yesterday I shared with you some thoughts on sentiment and much stuff- more today. I still have my same swing trades, but I don’t want to be a pig if you are getting my drift… or I don’t want to be left with a hot potato.

First some thoughts on commodities…. the “wall of worry.”

Exhibit A: POMO cumulative vs. CCI index


Exhibit B: POMO 20day vs. the CCI index

Cheers again.

Now some more on the S&P.

This is Cumulative Advances-Declines. The key here is how MANY stocks continue to rise.

Ok here is a shorter term view of that.

Now I ran the ADV-DEC and divided it [...]

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April 29, 2011

One For The Road

It’s Friday afternoon and I’m preparing to go massively long my obligatory pre-weekend Hefeweizen.

Yes, I know there are great American micro breweries, but what I can I say – it brings me back to my restless days when my biggest worry was which promiscuous Fräullein to chat up at the ole’ Parkcafe in Munich. If you’ve ever been there you know what I’m talking about. Those were the days…

Anyway, I thought I throw out another symbol for my stainless steel rats – it looks like a good one and there’s really no rush to get positioned: [amprotect=nonmember] Charts and commentary below for anyone donning a secret [...]

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April 28, 2011

And Now For Something Completely Different

Before I do a wrap up of where I think we are price-wise with the $spx I just took a little yen trade, and its a concept I havent shown before, so I may as well school you up.

Concept: The daily highs and lows are, as a general proposition, where a lot of stops are clustered. It stands to reason that these levels act like pivots, and are extraordinarily well-defended.

Take a look at the USDJPY today

We have both bullish and bearish potential here. Quite obviously recent momentum is DOWN, and its waaaay oversold, but the trend is showing signs of weakening. This could either be working off oversold momo, before another plunge downwards, or it could be a [...]

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April 28, 2011

Benny B and Timmy G

This is Volar with an update on sentiment. Today, you may be getting what’s on my mind. Sentiment is not extreme by any means – and likely divergent. So we could be in the process of setting up a top in the coming months. The end of this post talks about some “fundamental” data – so read it, but for Heaven’s sake don’t trade on that info!

For clarification I am still holding my swing trades on RUT and GOLD since the 17th of March. I will cover both trades when bucky gives any signal… I have sold CALLS on GOLD and I am long VIX futures (in some fashion) for RUT. Looking for an exit signal right now- do not have one yet.

On [...]

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