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Archive for May, 2011
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May 31, 2011

Fuck You Bears Monday Wrap Up

I guess we all saw this one coming – after all the script has been the very same for the past two years. First you whipsaw the crap out of everyone ahead of a holiday, then you kill the bears right at the open the day after:

Now the ZL signal was pretty flat throughout the day which means that participation here is pretty minimal. Even that last big spike up only registered at 0.6 on the ZL Richter scale which is nothing but a hiccup. Which leads me to believe that this thing can melt higher, yes – but I don’t think that we’re at the onset of a protracted short squeeze. I’m looking forward to see the spoos paint new highs because the way [...]

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May 31, 2011

Awesome setup – rats pay attention to this one

This is a little premature, its not to the end of the trading day yet. But I’m going to jump the gun and lay it out for you, this is a textbook setup.

Silver. This slut is begging to be shorted. The bounce is anemic, way less than anticipated. We have a MINISCULE range on the daily candle, which means a tiny risk. Which means you can take a MASSIVE position compared to usual.

Its a retest variation sell. Sell on break of the daily low, stop at 1 tick above the daily high.

The logic in this case is that we made a high 4 trading days ago. Since that time we have spent 3 days trying to break out to new highs, but not making it. That tells us that the [...]

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May 27, 2011

COT For The Holiday

For the noobs, COT is a report on the commitment of traders (CFTC futures reported data). I keep track of the number of speculators long – short (aka net long). If you see wording like Net Spec as a % of OI, that means the number of net speculators (long- short) relative to the total number of contracts outstanding.

All the definitions aside, here are a bunch of charts to look over.

NQ: This just shows that there is still much money “crowded” in NQ futures. Some money has come out, but we are far from levels that say the market is panicking. Some of you may wonder why I dont have the ES on here, well, the answer is simple. The ES is full of day [...]

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May 27, 2011

Holiday Snooze Wrap Up

Well, I probably should point out that the tape over on the EUR/USD was quite exciting. There was one really nice long trade setup on the ZeroFX – go check it out (it’s still free).

I see four good setups here – one (blue arrow) dropped but not far enough and probably would have gotten stopped out. The trick here is really in being patient and waiting for a long juicy spike – then you set a stop nearby and simply forget about it. Finding a target is a bit more tricky – at this point I am playing with the one standard deviation away (i.e. two lines away) from where the entry was triggered.

On to the snooze session:

I [...]

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