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Archive for January, 2012
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January 31, 2012

Running Like A Hare

The tape that is – at least for the past few weeks. Gaps at the open galore followed by systematic squeezes to the down or upside – it’s a pretty nasty January we’ve had ourselves here. Which is kind of strange as on a daily basis things are looking a lot more tranquil. Once you zoom out a bit you get an idea what I’m talking about:

It’s been a nice 120 degrees hill climb since mid December. When I see intra-day noise coupled with long term tranquility I usually take notice. But what really puzzled me as of late was the small signal range on the hourly Zero and the Zero Lite. Which is reflected on the TOS version of my hourly Zero [...]

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January 31, 2012

Clues – I Got Clues

Interesting thing happened today… we tried to go down, and reversed painting a hammer candle, which as we all know is bullish.

Now we are at major trendline resistance, the move is long in the tooth, and to my eye it looks like a simple short squeeze without attracting fresh buyers. That is the big question… did the short squeeze from the breakout of the triangle pattern bring in enough fresh longs to achieve escape velocity?

Everything changes from here if we go up and stay up. Its long all the way if we go a little higher.

Given that the high is unretested, and the hammer candle which by definition represents a failed attempt by the bears, [...]

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January 30, 2012

Nice Little Bear Squeeze

Well, that was a nice little bear squeeze we got ourselves today – almost textbook I may add, featuring the early morning wipeout followed by a systematic run higher. If you paid attention to the charts I posted last week then this morning’s support zone should have come to no surprise to you:

Those two Net-Line Sell Levels (NLSLs) at the psychologically important 1300 mark proved too much to overcome, which frankly was not a big surprise to me. There is simply no confidence in the tape – one way or the other! For the entire month of January I have maybe seen one or two quick spikes beyond the Zero’s +/- 1.0 signal range. A twenty handle drop at [...]

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January 29, 2012

Mole’s Weekend Musings

After seeing two excellent posts from both Fearless and Scott (thank you very much) I really do not have too much of value to add this weekend. The medium and long term perspectives on equities, gold, silver, the Dollar, etc. as reported earlier in the week stand and I’m not going to┬áregurgitate┬áthe same material just so produce a post. Instead we’re going to do something a bit different today. Volar responded to Fearless’ post with some very good material on volatility and fat/thin tail distribution. Reading it confirmed some of my own theories related to the cyclical nature of the tape which you may find valuable. So what I’m going to do is to quote [...]

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