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Archive for February, 2012
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February 29, 2012

I sense a disturbance in the force

I’ve been absent, with nothing to say. The slow motion melt-up of the last few weeks has reminded me of times a few years ago when I succumbed to stupid trader bias and held short.

Therefore I hate this type of price action, and recognizing the desire of the unconscious to “fix” old trading wounds by overtrading, I generally stand aside from markets when they exhibit my least favorite, but easiest to trade type of price action.

Note how each move was kicked off with a FTD. On of my market heroes, Mark Minervini (read his blog its the cat’s ass) has done statistical analysis on major moves on the SPX. In the long term (over 30 years of [...]

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February 29, 2012

Told Ya So!

Here’s your Evil Speculator prime directive when it comes to picking targets for your discretionary trades – do not overstay your welcome! You put on a hot trade – it’s pushing in your direction and eventually touches your target. And that means you are out – the only exception being a few lottery tickets if you can plausible justify a second target area.

Case in point: Silver – just yesterday I told all of your short term traders to be out of silver post haste. Today’s candle may have been a rude awakening to anyone not heeding that call yesterday. The story is a bit different for medium to long term trend traders of course [...]

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February 28, 2012

Time To Cash Out

I don’t really have much to say today on the equities front. The tape is flailing around just as expected and there’s nothing for us to do unless we paint a meaningful correction or progress upward toward 1390. We do have however two new profit targets in the Evil Speculator commodity pit – and for us stainless steel rats that’s always a happy occasion:

Silver has pushed outside both 2.0 BB bands (i.e. 25 and 100 days) which means you thank the dark Lord by sacrificing a chicken (devouring a chicken salad from Whole Foods is acceptable) and immediately proceed to taking profits.

The weekly chart also suggest some impending [...]

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February 27, 2012

All Well On The QE Front

For over a year now I have been telling my stainless steel rats that the real deal is happening over on the FX side. The ones amongst you who have heeded my suggestions have been banking coin and most everyone else is probably long gone licking their wounds or is secretly¬†reading this blog in a cramped cubicle at some day job. Boss alert!!! Yes, the market is a cruel mistress but she happens to be extremely loyal to the forces of reality. As a trader you have a choice to make – every single day – you either trade the tape you are given or the tape you want to have. Hey, I don’t make the tape – I just report it – so please don’t shoot the messenger [...]

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    I had to think¬†long and hard about what exactly to post today without insulting at least half of my readership. As you know I have … more
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