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Archive for April, 2012
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April 30, 2012

The Evil Has Landed

It is done – the evil has landed in Madrid. As Spain is a rather catholic country I am sure my descend has the local church on high alert. Little do they know that I have established my new lair right under their very noses!

I’m not even kidding – this old church is actually my view right out of window of the piso I rented. Amazing location and right inside a busy pedestrian zone – giving me the luxury of spitting on innocent by-passers for the sheer fun of it. The only thing that’s driving me crazy is that little street concerto which seems to only have Vivaldi’s Four Seasons in their repertoire. It was fun the first three hours but [...]

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April 27, 2012

Smile Modeling; What Is SKEW?

I am sending this out, but will not be able to respond to questions till Monday as I am on an annual “family” business trip this weekend.

This post will be a bit dry, but hopefully interesting to those who trade options.  This may sound educational, but hopefully it encourages some deep thought. To be blunt- all of this- is so I can say I have a vega of 3 today and a vega of 4.5 in two weeks. 99% of traders cannot do that (or they think they can but their math is wrong). Yet the guy on the other end of the trade (market maker) clearly knows about smiles, convexity, or stochastic volatility. This is why call rape (patent pending), skew rape (patent pending), and [...]

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April 26, 2012

Painting The Picture

I have movers all over the house as we speak and they are about to carry out the desk I’m working on right now. So forgive me if I’m not as elaborate as usual. I was about to simply run you guys through a few juicy commodity setups, all of which by the way seem to have come into sync, thus greatly improving our odds. But there is one chart I ran into this morning which paints a unique picture of what has been going on in the past few months. As I won’t be able to post this weekend I decided to be a kind Mole for a change and just throw it to the leeches:

I think some of you may remember this one – it’s a ratio of all NYSE stocks trading [...]

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April 25, 2012

Inside Pay Day 3.0

Inside days are always fun and are slowly starting to become a favorite tradition here at Evil Speculator. Last night’s resolution in silver and the spoos put a rather smug and derisive smile on my face. And that’s how we roll here at the evil lair – please leave the punditry and opinions to the schmucks on the other side of our trades. We prefer to stick with wherever the tape takes us.

If you are a leech you got this one for free – please spend your ill-gotten gains with a skinhead of your choice. BTW, whoever gets this reference will instantly be promoted to über-stainless-steel-rat.

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Cognitive Bias Carousel
  • Herding BiasHerding Bias
    Something very interesting happened during our trip back to Valencia last Sunday. After checking our luggage and passing through the airport’s security procedures we had a … more
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