Now Reading
2018 First Impressions
146

2018 First Impressions

by The MoleJanuary 2, 2018

Welcome back! I hope some of you enjoyed a quiet and relaxing time away from charts and the never ending drama of our financial markets. I wish I was that lucky but as almost every year I somehow find myself stuck catching up on a myriad of chores, reading assignments, and various project related tasks. That’s right, the action (and the screaming) never stops down here at the evil lair. Now I was actually planning on ripping the lid off a major new initiative I have planned for you guys but I’m running a bit behind so let’s just take a gander at some of our key markets.

Which actually can be summed up by this chart – the U.S. Dollar (shown here are the futures), and it’s heading for a world of hurt. That formation on the monthly panel is looking extremely troubling and unless we are seeing buying interest here and that soon we will most likely see a drop to the 90 mark. Should that psychologically important support zone fail then it’ll launch a sell off of biblical proportion.

In some ways this is already happening actually, and the ongoing goldrush into crypto currencies is just one symptom of the overall disease (i.e. a systematic destruction of the greenback largely fueled by a decade of quantitative easing). Without doubt 2017 will be remembered as the year in which crypto currencies transitioned from the early adopter phase to early mainstream. And I have little doubt thatΒ 2018 is going to be the year in which consolidation in the number of markets, standardization on the exchange and trading front, and yes regulations by governments and international bodies will establish crypto as a force to be reckoned with. Currency markets will never be the same and despite all the growing pains it will most definitely for the better. More on that in the near future.

Over in the dinosaur forex pit the EUR/USD is looking bullish as heck right now and if I had any common sense I would double my subscription fees post haste. It’s in a clear break out pattern right now and a target of 1.26 by Eastern is in the cards.

One more freebie but there’s quite a bit more looming below the fold (so sign up now). The USD/JPY is still hemming and hawing, but a if it can hold its 25-day SMA I think we’re off to the races here. I would love to get a more thorough retest as to justify a long term long for a ride into 118.

evil_separator

It's not too late - learn how to consistently bank coin without news, drama, and all the misinformation. If you are interested in becoming a subscriber then don't waste time and sign up here. The Zero indicator service also offers access to all Gold posts, so you actually get double the bang for your buck.

Please login or subscribe here to see the remainder of this post.


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at the usual social media waterholes.
Enjoyed this post? Consider a small donation to keep those evil deeds coming!

BTC: 1MwMJifeBU3YziDoLLu8S54Vg4cbnJxvpL
BCH: qqxflhnr0jcfj4nejw75klmpcsfsp68exukcr0a29e
ETH: 0x9D0824b9553346df7EFB6B76DBAd1E2763bE6Ef1
LTC: LUuoD6sDWgbqSgnpo5hceYPnTD9MAvxi6c

  • StockTalker

    Seeing some weakness, shorted /NQ 6472.25

  • HD

    First look at the $SPX. round number set up. The hits have been consistent. 2700, already 20 handle last week. Deeper below 2675 pivot. if when.

  • ridingwaves

    where?

  • BobbyLow

    Good mornin on this cold 18 Degree first trading day of 2018. It should get up to the low 30’s tthis afternoon – “Dilly, Dilly” πŸ™‚

    Had a “coulda woulda shoulda” moment after closing my long gold at the end of last week. But I did the right thing by my rules so it is what it is. FWIW, I got back in long Gold this AM. I also held my nose and went long Oil this AM. I have relatively tight stops on both

  • StockTalker

    Mainly in the Dow right now, best to be short ATM. /CL very soon, weekly sell signal

  • ridingwaves

    next 2 weeks should be large draw down on NG storage….I’m buying any weakness in the widow maker…

  • ridingwaves

    kinda of tough to short this market on first week of new year…why not find some runners?

  • StockTalker

    /NG is in a W4, difficult to trade.

  • StockTalker

    I did, 25k in pot stocks, retail is looking for places to put their cash. You think BTC was a money maker?

  • HD

    2682-2692 range. 10 HanDles. Looks like the same BOTs for 2018 so far. Still looking to fade.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    If the dollar is going to drop, then the gold/dollar ratio will be favorable.

    Bully!
    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GLD%3AUUP&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p13974176978

  • StockTalker

    Bots are a little tipsy:)

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    ps. The gold heist may be coming to an end. RSI is hot for a daily chart.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/4fc25d56b40a57714837519d3700fa04ae3d901532fb4eb6d6c0d5bfa6597b14.png

    -JokerGerb

  • ridingwaves

    NFP on Friday….beware…

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Natural Family Planning?

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • ridingwaves
  • StockTalker

    Hehe, ppl don’t drive in this shit either. Good to be short crude oil.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Update on the weekly dollar from two months ago.
    https://disqus.com/home/discussion/evilspeculator/interesting_times/#comment-3616317082

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/4b309f64aadc26365baf4a62d98fab1869fcba17951952f6cea09ebcbd58560f.png

    RSI sub 50, bearish. Price is definitely stuck in a downward range band.
    Looks like Moles fees are going up?

  • BobbyLow

    Supposed to be locked in until Sunday. I hate fucking cold. There’s nothing good about it.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    I’ve got some 120 degrees wrapped up in canning jars from last Summer.
    You want to buy some? quite the bargain.
    πŸ˜‰

  • BobbyLow

    LOL

    Yes I would love some. In the summer we can get up to around a 100 degrees for a few days in a row where I am and I’ll take that over cold any day. Fortunately our winters are relatively short and this too shall pass.

  • Julie

    F 12.63 stop on a closing basis. BAC stop 29.76 on a closing basis, GE a nice pop
    JULIE

  • RomPetr Oll

    Wouldnt a weak dollar be supportive of stocks ?

  • RomPetr Oll

    Would a weak dollar be supportive of stocks ?

  • StockTalker

    Not necessarily, market drops when it runs out of buyers. /DXY 92 is solid support, watch out gold bugs.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Supportive of everything – that was the point of the post. Guess I should have made that more clear but I was a bit in a rush.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    That poor woman…

  • Julie

    Retaining very small short probes F and BAC
    JULIE

  • Julie

    Friday’s thread stated a possible one more minor upleg BAC which looks like is occurring
    JULIE

  • Julie

    A Previous thread I stated to watch XHB at 44.17 for a possible short. 30 min chart a bearish 30 min candle closing below 44.17. Today’s bounce exactly 44.17 Too Much !
    JULIE

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    It happens and I can assure you that it’s complete coincidence. Unless you can do it again tomorrow and the day after πŸ˜‰

  • Julie

    Hi Chief Previous thread I posted charts TTPH and ACOR for RW. Now 6.26 was an important support and today’s bounce 6.27. Very important resistance 6.61 and it’s 233 ema is 6.58. Stated a breakout above the 233 ema with a SCTR at 30 would be a long
    JULIE

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I guess I just hand over the entire operation to you then… :-/

  • Julie

    No Way Chief I have been perfecting skills on determining resistance and support levels. What is very important are fib exp moving averages i.e. 8 – 13 – 21 – 34 – 55 – 89 – 144 – 233 – 377. You will always be our “Chief”
    JULIE

  • Julie

    F strong support 12.61 and 12.58 Tomorrow a break below with a bearish candle on the 30 min chart closing below 12.58 I will add to short probe
    JULIE

  • Julie

    Forgot 5
    JULIE

  • Julie

    For the non believers of fib exp moving averages. 89 is a fib number. A picture is worth a 1,000 words JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/c463d66c5d1d1139be6aed526679f4d99ee38aa3d3598e2741dd7c87455b61b1.png

  • Julie

    ZAGG If the attempted bounce approx. 55 ema fails to close above the 5 ema (approx. 19.24) and https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/129f71975314d0c6a4e872b0ba079a9381700b32f245eeb202b0cfe3ce5ffdfd.png strong resistance 19.40. Then look for the bounce 17.72 and or approx. 17.28 (89 ema) JULIE

  • http://www.captainboom.com/ captainboom

    Au contraire! I love the cold. Skiing has been great!

  • http://www.captainboom.com/ captainboom

    @ridingwaves:disqus Here’s a story you may enjoy πŸ™‚
    http://www.mlive.com/news/index.ssf/2017/12/michigans_surfer_dan_loves_his.html
    Crazy bastard…

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Hey guys – I don’t have much to add to yesterday’s analysis and also don’t see anything appetizing on the setup front. Have some other tasks to attend to in preparation to the new initiative I am planning to introduce here shortly.

  • Mary

    GE gapped up …

  • BobbyLow

    LOL so does my daughter.

    I moved to the South from the Northeast to get away from it but it still finds me every once in awhile. πŸ™‚

  • ridingwaves

    crazy bastard to the 10th level……that is dedication right there….nuts, I wouldn’t paddle out for those waves….thanks….

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III
  • ridingwaves

    just bought some cheap insurance…

  • Mary

    FOMC minutes released in 4 hours.

  • BobbyLow

    Don’t know how far they’ll run but for now, I remain long Gold and long Oil.

  • HD

    Nice!

  • StockTalker

    FOMC today, Stopped out yesterday. Stops just run @ 61.31. Short

  • HD

    @Mark S had a 27xx target a few months ago. Finding some symmetry at 2727 from the EW perspective. Clearly impulsive, TL defines. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/9bcf6c94f77912a5c4eaddf38a5c8209a913c2109fea146d67241a68c4a9c7e8.png

  • HD

    $SPX 2697.80-2707.80, 10 handle bots all year please.

  • BobbyLow

    Thanks HD

  • BobbyLow

    It’s been kind of strange run on oil and a stealth run on Gold. I don’t think the FOMC has had much of an affect on Oil in recent months. It can have a big effect on Gold though. Today is only the FOMC Minutes which might not move anything. However, the FOMC’s next rate announcement is on Jan 31st and that’s a different story.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • ridingwaves

    their was a brutal shake out move earlier today on NUGT….interesting to say the least

  • StockTalker

    I will try to post a chart but it is my belief that this move up was a 4 and at some point when this market is ready to correct crude should make a new low. FOMC could start it off, shall see.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • BobbyLow

    Could happen ST. I’m trading 30 Minute Charts now so it wouldn’t take me too long to jump on the downside when happens. I don’t do anything fancy and just try to follow price. πŸ™‚

  • ridingwaves

    the problem is your seeing a 4 and the bankers are seeing the ability to ramp inflation on the backs of commodities…..The Potus asked for it last week, the fed has been trying to get it for 8 years…the people have been feeling it for a couple years in the things they need, now they want it in everything to keep this Bernanke put rolling….

  • StockTalker

    Price is above resistance, I could care less about politics and drama. These take a very long time to play out but every stop has been triggered above resistance now. Perfect time to drop the bitch. Ganstas make coin either way:)

  • ridingwaves

    yet, you care about a debunked wave theory…..too funny….like shorting NQ yesterday the waves are only made to surf, not invest….

  • StockTalker

    Yep, 5 waves down from here:) Will take a picture of it when complete.

  • StockTalker

    I am not an investor, only a trader!!

  • StockTalker

    Piled back on to /NG here, price is supportive now.

  • Julie

    Taking profits GE long. F and BAC short probes still maintain
    JULIE

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Hey guys – how’s my crew?

  • Julie

    Great Chief Did not expect the pop today F i.e. bounce off it’s 5 ema .F a possible double top just a small short probe GE long worked and took profits this a.m. BAC patience on a short probe down approx.20 cents
    JULIE

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Well, if you look below at the Zero snapshot – it looked like a bot driven squeeze day right from the get-go. They basically bought everything and drove the tape up.

  • Julie

    Chief possible targets 2705 (now exceeded) 2711 and 2734 are what I have. As I type a possible reversal at 2712. Watching closely. Thanks Mole !
    JULIE

  • ridingwaves

    good and yourself? finally banking coin on long awaited sector rotation

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I’ve got my hands full with preparing my new initiative, which has me pretty excited to be honest.

  • ridingwaves

    excited for you is probably more controlled than us rats, here we are
    https://media.giphy.com/media/l0MYt5jPR6QX5pnqM/giphy.gif

  • Julie

    F the December 4th high was 12.81 and very high volume. Usually high volume highs and lows are retested. Now the 3rd retest on less volume. A possible chart pattern is an ascending triangle. I have a short probe and down slightly. Was going to add this a.m on the 30 min chart with a bearish candle (30 min) closing below 12.58 but did not materialize. F bounced off it’s daily 5 ema and now retesting the 12.81 high of December 4. F VWAP is approx. 12.74. Have a plan and work your plan. A trade is never wrong if you know why you made the trade. If wrong not wrong long. My short F is a very small probe and if it was a larger amount I would have covered this a.m. off the bounce 5 ema. Patience is the rule shorting and patience is what I have with this small probe.12.81 is strong resistance and will monitor
    JULIE

  • BobbyLow

    Doing fine Boss. πŸ™‚

  • Julie

    F 12.74 — 12,78 is a resistance matching the VWAP (12.74) so watching closely i.e. a close today below 12.74 would benefit. Plan your work and work your plan
    JULIE

  • ridingwaves

    patients can also die when left unattended….

  • BobbyLow

    Stopped on Long Gold and Flipped to Short. Possible whipsaw will find out soon. Still Long Oil.

  • StockTalker

    Bottle pop top in crude just now, down we go:)

  • Julie

    Hi RW on previous thread Top and Bottom Performing Stocks I posted some charts on two stocks that you maybe interested TTPH and ACOR. The Baker Bros. NYC new positions.
    JULIE

  • BobbyLow

    We’re on opposite sides of this trade and I’m reasonably sure that we are trading different time frames. I also go for the middle part of a momentum move. So I’ll get in after a move has begun and get out after a move has ended. I suck at calling tops or bottoms. πŸ™‚

  • Julie

    BL The fattest mouse grabs the middle section of the cheese
    JULIE

  • ridingwaves

    ttph is a good symbol as they have approved FDA drug but it’s not orally administered thus slow ramp up…the 50 and 25sma below the 100sma in my lens lets shorts still attack it…once they move over the 100 it will go higher….
    ACOR in similar position…..still think the big boys are going to push around IBB to scare the children..

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • ridingwaves
  • BobbyLow

    Yep, it’s not looking good.

  • ridingwaves

    the destruction of VIX longs is amazing to watch via XIV…..
    is there anyone left on that trade, sanity included….

  • BobbyLow

    Flipped back to long Gold on anticipated whipsaw. Shit happens.

  • Mary

    Is that divergeance on the right panel?

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III
  • Ronebadger

    Snow day today on Long Island. 3″ already, 7″+ coming. Winds will be 30-40mph. 6F tonight (BELOW ZERO by weekend). As I predicted, we are now paying for the nice spring, mild summer and warm fall we have had. Good news: High 30s/Low 40s end of next week. I can do some yard work then. πŸ˜‰

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    76 and sunny in PHX today. Hell has its perks!!

  • StockTalker

    Dow 25k, get the hats out. Heady to throw down on short side.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    ive seen your kind. they dont last long. OTOH, we did have a full moon. πŸ˜‰

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Hey guys – I’m working on a major post which will take me another hour or two to complete. It’s kicking off a new initiative here at Evil Speculator and I don’t want to rush it just to make it to the bell. So please stand by and check back in an hour or two – it’ll be worth your while.

  • StockTalker

    Short triggered, happy FN New Year:), yes still short crude oil.

  • HD

    $SPX 2727 target hit. See EW count below. Looking for reaction

  • StockTalker

    Better than being a Gerbil, more like a foxhound:)

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    The gloves are off today!

  • HD

    $CL_F interesting wave, looks impulsive. More notable each rally has some symmetry $6-7, PB’s have been $3 ish. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/0dc0036a115731c64a6d564f6a091869b1a2cd0ac1383e479799d68b496a9480.png

  • ridingwaves
  • BobbyLow

    Agree and I think he’s still living in the 50’s.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    a 71 year old leading edge baby boomer? from Alabama? Nawwwwwh.
    πŸ˜‰

  • ridingwaves

    Hey Alcohol is cool though…..he must have a lot of pharma stocks….

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    fuck the Union, confederates have a RIGHT to white lightning.
    πŸ˜‰
    http://coppermoonshinestills.com/sitebuildercontent/sitebuilderpictures/DSCFreinactment1.JPG

  • ridingwaves

    what say you widow maker? who cares about a 206 drawdown RW….
    next week should be the same….

  • ridingwaves

    25% drop in alcohol sales in CO, 33% drop in opiate deaths in legal states….

    must be a population control measure….

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Big money, any way you look at it.
    Don’t confuse the powers that be with common sense statistics!!

  • BobbyLow

    Sessions is probably worried about “Reefer Madness”. πŸ™‚

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q8oEOQIh1L8

  • StockTalker

    Shorted /NDK as well

  • ridingwaves

    yet, the money it brings in via taxes for legal states makes pharma contributions look like an infant poop smear….

  • ridingwaves

    too funny but I do like the thought of a bunch of stoners hanging out in suits…

  • ridingwaves

    Still have Andrew Lahde letter bookmarked…what a way to go out….
    https://www.ft.com/content/128d399a-9c75-11dd-a42e-000077b07658

  • BobbyLow

    Another thing is that fuckers like Sessions are big into states rights unless it is something that they don’t like. Just another form of hypocrisy.

  • ridingwaves
  • BobbyLow

    Not taking any chances and just took +2R Profit on Oil. Might reenter long later today or I might go short. Price will lead the way. πŸ™‚

    Still long Gold.

  • BobbyLow

    Wow! PTB probably knew. I wonder what kind of short position there was and when it was put on?

  • ridingwaves

    congress players were probably told last month, they used the famous Paulson TARP maneuver ….

  • Mary

    Bitcoin has settled into a tightening range. It will be interesting to see which way it goes when it finally breaks out.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    (link doesn’t work)

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    You’re going to like today’s post. Too much of a hint?

    Yes, yes – I’m lagging behind. But your patience will be rewarded but until then you can unleash your anger here …

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    I got a text from a family member last night.
    Aparently a crypto called Tron has gone from 3 cents to 12 18 cents in two weeks.

    https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/tron/

    Consider it a shoeshine boy warning – rats.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    slacker!!

  • ridingwaves
  • Mary
  • StockTalker

    20yrs, hum. In dog days that’s 140:)

  • Mary

    I say up from here … stop just below 14,000 … paper only for me …

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    I say down.

    I just keep looking at the silver chart.
    https://www.kitco.com/LFgif/ag3650nyb.gif

  • StockTalker

    Way down!!

  • HD

    $SPX has rallied (55) points this year at HOD.

  • HD

    if u r trading equities, @traderstewie is a must follow. Hands down one of the best chart pattern, stock picker.
    Futes, $ES_F I recommend @verniman

  • StockTalker

    Dollar back to the neckline (support) on the move upward.

  • BobbyLow

    I’m Holding my nose again and back in long Oil

  • Julie

    F strong resistance 13.15
    JULIE

  • Julie

    Small caps and tech underperforming the blue chips. IMO defensive rotation. Red flag
    JULIE

  • Julie

    INTC I have maintained 47 was a top. 47 appears to be a double top. Previous posts stated I wanted INTC to drop to it’s 55 or 89 ema’s. YUP ! Down to it’s 89 ema and upper gap window. Now looking for the shorter high to short longer term JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/77682326ed646db05cff99021bd970a71023726281edd706bbb744c39fb26cc3.png

  • Ronebadger
  • Julie

    INTC 2nd chart. PMO has topped and below it’s signal line. A lot of volume by price matching the 50% retracement and Ichi Cloud baseline appros 45.15 Conversion line below baseline https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/9a6ab9929a0667717c5d764572b3424693e6b398f0ed827504555c49e8929fc3.png JULIE

  • Mary

    It depends on your time frame. Longer term I think it is toast, but I think the next leg is up for now.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Sorry it took so long but NEW POST!

    I hope you find it worth the long wait.