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A Terrible Thing To Waste
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A Terrible Thing To Waste

by The MoleJanuary 16, 2009

UPDATE 10:12am EST: I was just catching up with the latest thread of comments and one in particular by standard_and_poor stood out:

After reading today’s posts it seems many of us are trying to toy and fine tune an already perfect scenerio. We’ve been waiting for an impulse wave for many frustrating weeks, let’s not let our reptilian brain screw this up. Wait for the 2nd fib retracement or even 3rd if we get there to add to shorts. Most of us should be somewhat hedged anyway. Don’t get scared out of your shorts by not having your exit and re-entry strategies prepared before market open; otherwise you’re trading on emotion and adrenalin (seeking pleasure, avoiding pain at all costs even if at the core we are aware of our errors). Odds are favorable that we’re amidst [intermediate] wave 5 eventually awaiting at least 739 spx. I know it’s a tough call for us but look at the bank stocks (new lows seem imminent), $cpc, etc., etc. I’ll be lightly nibbling around pivot zones at most. Sure the brain is terrilbe thing to waste but so is an impulse wave!

I have to say, I couldn’t agree more with his sentiment – not sure if we’re in (5) or still in (4) but I frankly don’t care because I’m just sitting and watching at this point. Now, I’m not saying I’m not doing anything or plan to head for the beach (nice warm weather over here in L.A.) – I’m browsing through tons of charts to pick victims for the invariable trip to the downside. But that may be a week or more away, so let’s be patient folks – in trading timing is everything.

Besides, today is expiration Friday – my least favorite trading day of the month. I completely despise this day as market makers are out in force with high voltage cattle prods inflicting maximum pain on hapless rats hoping to make an easy buck. Trust me – those guys will have your breakfast – spit you out – and then roast you on stick for the main course. Just stay away.

Zero was triggering a long ETA but that disappeared quickly – I have put my criteria on the chart and unless all three are fulfilled I’ll stay out of taking trades in that account as well. No sense to blow profits on slippage and whipsaw tape.

UPDATE 10:30am EST: We’re slowly drifting downward – take a look at this:

Nice channel we got ourselves here – we basically keep bouncing against a dropping VWAP. Keep an eye on that channel – perfect for day/swing traders I might add.

UPDATE 10:36am EST: GREAT – I post the damn chart and we break through the channel – LOL. Let’s see if it holds – retest coming.

UPDATE 11:11am EST: Somewhere deep in the murky depths of currency markets something strange is happening today:

Yen is pushing to the upside right now, which is bearish for equities. But see how ES futures were previously dropping along with the Yen – that’s a bit irregular IMHO. If you’re getting all excited here whilst loading up on puts be very very careful – this smells like a major bear trap to me. I also see 4 indecision candles on the Zero, also indicating that the current drop has no underlying momentum. Watch your six – expiration Friday can be treacherous.

Okay, I’ll grab breakfast – will be back in about 30 minutes.

UPDATE 12:18pm EST: Wonderful, I step away for some morning nourishment and come back to see an ETA and a VTA. Was only 8 minutes late on the VTA, so I grabbed it. Judging by the comments you guys are aware that WFC and other banks just fell off the plate. RKH has some nice candles on it. Yup, reality finally catching up with those boys…

UPDATE 19:26pm EST: I have to be honest – I did NOT expect such a large move today. This actually strengthens the case for intermediate (5). As a matter of fact, the force of the past 10 days has contributed to that scenario becoming more plausible every day. But for now it doesn’t matter as no critical points have been breached. I’m watching that channel I posted earlier this morning:


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at the usual social media waterholes.
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