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Almost There

by MoleJune 9, 2011

As you know rats I have been saying wait for it, wait for it, wait for it…

Last night I said, “SINCE 1950 IN THE MONTH OF JUNE THE MAX CONSECUTIVE DOWN DAYS IS 8 (1 TIME 1996), OTHERWISE THE NUMBER 6 HAS HAPPENED 11 TIMES… SO LIKE 91% CHANCE WE CLOSE HIGHER TOM.”

Now does that mean we have a bottom? No. It just means high odds of a higher close.

Now on to charts galore and few words.

Have we had capitulation? Maybe… but unlikely IMO.

OCC all equities put volume.

I would like to see some more puts. Also I would like to see a higher VIX, but one may not get that.

Here is the momo for CBOE:
[amprotect=nonmember]More of Volar’s charts and commentary below for anyone donning a secret decoder ring. If you are interested in becoming a Gold member then don’t waste time and sign up here. And if you are a Zero subscriber it includes access to all Gold posts, so you actually get double the bang for your buck.
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Almost there…

Almost there…but keep in mind that the ISEE is not that extreme yet.

But the OCC is close…

And seasonal momo is close to a very low number.

But we could go lower…

Also AAII is the lowest ever for this time of year. 1993 AAII is identical. Started out very strong and then fell very hard into the summer before a 6% rally into August.

And of course the CBOE chart… very close to that level for the JULY- AUG rally.

Clearly we should have a bounce if one believes we are still tracking bull market analog years.

And one more seasonality chart, Provability of a VIX buy signal.

Now this also means that we have a high probability of what next week? A spike in the VIX obviously, and a buy signal for equities of course 😉

Here is another interesting chart relating to momo and breadth.

Could go a bit lower on both ratios.

And on to my sentiment index.

And my sentiment 3 sigma tipple bollinger band.

And the rate of change:

Now that says we could rally into August 😉

Bottom line. We are *nearing * a swing low, and I will likely swing long into August sometime in the next week or two. IF and only IF there is PANIC. I recommend using some candlestick charts, like an inside day/hammer, to time the entry.

Keep your head, zero emotion, and trade the probabilities.

Good luck trading,

-Volar
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About The Author
Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at various social media waterholes below.

  • bisq

    Outstanding work.  Jives with my feeling of a run-up back to the years highs if we can get a flush first. Otherwise we may just grind back and put in a lower high. Those sentiment readings will be historically bullish if that happens by mid Fall !

  • Anonymous

    We should start calling you “VOLE”.  Obviously, a lot of time, effort and thought went into this.  Good stuff, keep it up, always appreciated.  Where else can you get this stuff?  Thanks!

  • http://thefxspeculator.blogspot.com Onorio

    Glad i went long AUD on that 4H pin bar, i`ve achived my R1 and im now moving the stop to B/E….im realy enjoying this setup, plain and simple.

  • volar

    I write this stuff out, and print it before every swing trade. Not hard for me to paste it onto a website 😉

    Aka it sure looks like I took much time for this, but I was doing this anyways….

  • Anonymous

    Thanks for the Charts Volar.

    BTW, has anybody noticed that on the way to today’s Rally that AAPL, GOOG and NFLX are Down.

    And that previous Wall Street’s Brand New Baby LNKD, is down another $3.56 to $72.35.   

    Just sayin.    🙂

  • Kudos

    Sina completely outside bolingers for second day. The complete float has been traded twice over the last 6 days, today we may see 50% of the float trade. Seems as though it will be hard to keep up this downward momentum unless tomorrow 75% of the float is traded and we see a 4 std deviation move. Selling puts paying very nicely outa the money, very high risk/high reward and not for everyone

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    My car got hit in an overnight hit & run and I have to deal with a big furball this morning. Will chime in as soon as I catch a breath.

  • http://thefxspeculator.blogspot.com Onorio

    Drunk bastards!

  • nyse

    That sucks. Fukin cowards.

  • Anonymous

    Nicely done 🙂

  • Anonymous

    condolances. i can feel your pain – literally, since someone crashed into me this morning as well. 🙁

  • Anonymous

    Sorry to hear that!

  • http://thefxspeculator.blogspot.com Onorio

    I`m really enjoying price action, it`s just simple and clear 🙂

    I`m focus on pin bars now, after i manage that i will try other patterns. Must reserch some more on the inside bars and the retest variation.

    Was masterkillers.com yours scott?

  • http://chartsandthat.blogspot.com/ ultra

    Soooo… 1300?

  • http://chartsandthat.blogspot.com/ ultra

    BTW, has everyone rolled over to the next contract today already? Looks like Mole has from the Zero…

  • http://chartsandthat.blogspot.com/ ultra

    Sorry to hear that bro. I hope it’s not too beat up.

  • Anonymous

    Mole, your “peachy” trendline has got a little bit of a divergence there, doesn’t it?  I’m still learning, though…

  • Anonymous

    Could very well be.  The  Internals are not spectacular by any means but they’ve been moving at a slow steady grind upward.  $VOL is at the HOD right now.    Things could change in a heart beat.  However, at this moment it doesn’t look like that’s going to happen.  

  • Anonymous

    Friends in High Places: Bilderberg
    2011 Kicks Off…Secret
    Agenda Leaked by Mole…

    How’d you find out Mole?

  • http://chartsandthat.blogspot.com/ ultra
  • http://thefxspeculator.blogspot.com Onorio

    Speculating about a possible EW count we might be heading to 1305/1312 on a abc correction, IMO 1305 (a) 1295 (b) and 1312 (c)

    This abc should be a (ii) of 3 as 1370-1310 as 1, 1310-1350 as 2 and we`re now on 3 with (i) of 3 1350-1278…this (ii) 1325 or the bear case is doomed and this is just a major ABC.

    If im correct the hell will break loose somewhere arround early to mid next week…place your bets!

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Nope – don’t over think it.  We are going straight up today. Unless we see a clear breach of that trend line we should see a strong close.

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    If I can give you a tip: It’s much easier for people to see this on a chart. If you spell it out like that 90% of readers are going to ignore it as it’s a pain to map it on one’s own chart. 

    jingproject.com is your friend 😉

  • http://thefxspeculator.blogspot.com Onorio

    I know, but im lazy sometimes 🙂

  • http://chartsandthat.blogspot.com/ ultra

    Stopped out for 2R. This is a fakeout buy here on 30/15 min. Will they go for an after-hours ramp?

    //not entered!

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    I could tell you but then I would have to kill you 😉

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    I think so, the ZL signal is touching that support line right now – plus we are at VWAP.

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    I’d think that it takes a lot more time to spell it out. Anyway, whatever you want to do, just trying to help.

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    BTW, the count is wrong – iv cannot push above the lows of i. Sorry mate.

  • http://thefxspeculator.blogspot.com Onorio

    I know what you think about it mole, but in that count wave 1 is a LD :/

  • Anonymous

    /es dropped to support @ 1280 AR. Unexpected, short covering before the close pushing it higher but not likely to breach 1285. My guess close @ 1283.5.

  • http://thefxspeculator.blogspot.com Onorio

    I know what you think about it, but in the count that is a LD :/

  • Anonymous

    Well that was that.  

    I don’t know if today was an indication of more to come, a DCB or just a plain ole Bull Trap.  

    I was taking a little beating earlier today while using my “Rope a Dope” strategy.   I brought out some Jesse Livermore  Quotes.  I think this one is appropriate for me today.

    “It never was my thinking that made the big money for me. It always was my sitting.”

  • Anonymous

    What setups you trading onorio?

  • Anonymous

    For Elliot count , yes
    but for DeMark count , who studied what Elliot gave, then expounded based on his observations, 
    it is ok for iv to overlap i 
    fwiw

  • http://thefxspeculator.blogspot.com Onorio

    Right now, mostly 4H pin bars…sometimes inside bars, but i`ve to do some more research about that.

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Hey Mole,
    the last many days have been wild.
    Did Spiral Calendar work out in any way?
    if not, have you dumped it?
    -just curious.

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    early to mid next week.
    Hellllo!?
    That would be OpX Week.
    Is the sky blue when the sun is shining?
    (smirk)

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    ¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨ 
    ¨°º¤ø„¸  N E W  „ø¤º°¨ 
    ¸„ø¤º°¨ P O S T “°º¤ø„¸
    ¨°º¤  B I T C H E S  ¤º°¨ 
    ¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°º¤ø„¸

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    I don’t know how you could have gotten this one wrong. I said yesterday to take profits and that the tape would turn. Volar provided some statistics to back it up. We opened near yesterday’s close and ran straight up. Seriously mate – how much easier can we make it?

  • Anonymous

    Yes today was pretty predictable. Open up, dumb money in, take it down, scare dumb money out; take it up for the expected bounce and trended up into a chop-fest the rest of the day on extremely low volume which made a close sell-off that more likely.