As you know rats I have been saying wait for it, wait for it, wait for it…
Last night I said, “SINCE 1950 IN THE MONTH OF JUNE THE MAX CONSECUTIVE DOWN DAYS IS 8 (1 TIME 1996), OTHERWISE THE NUMBER 6 HAS HAPPENED 11 TIMES… SO LIKE 91% CHANCE WE CLOSE HIGHER TOM.”
Now does that mean we have a bottom? No. It just means high odds of a higher close.
Now on to charts galore and few words.
Have we had capitulation? Maybe… but unlikely IMO.
OCC all equities put volume.
I would like to see some more puts. Also I would like to see a higher VIX, but one may not get that.
Here is the momo for CBOE:
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Almost there…but keep in mind that the ISEE is not that extreme yet.
But the OCC is close…
And seasonal momo is close to a very low number.
But we could go lower…
Also AAII is the lowest ever for this time of year. 1993 AAII is identical. Started out very strong and then fell very hard into the summer before a 6% rally into August.
And of course the CBOE chart… very close to that level for the JULY- AUG rally.
Clearly we should have a bounce if one believes we are still tracking bull market analog years.
And one more seasonality chart, Provability of a VIX buy signal.
Now this also means that we have a high probability of what next week? A spike in the VIX obviously, and a buy signal for equities of course 😉
Here is another interesting chart relating to momo and breadth.
Could go a bit lower on both ratios.
And on to my sentiment index.
And my sentiment 3 sigma tipple bollinger band.
And the rate of change:
Now that says we could rally into August 😉
Bottom line. We are *nearing * a swing low, and I will likely swing long into August sometime in the next week or two. IF and only IF there is PANIC. I recommend using some candlestick charts, like an inside day/hammer, to time the entry.
Keep your head, zero emotion, and trade the probabilities.
Good luck trading,