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And The Winner Is…
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And The Winner Is…

by The MoleJuly 30, 2009

And the winner is… [drums rolling] …. Goldman & Cronies for best actor in the portrayal of a sickly market ready to breach to the downside! [applause & standing ovations]

Seriously, today’s tape had fishy written all over it. Those gyrations might have fooled some of the hobby bears but I was not impressed. Yes, playing the swings might have been fun – if that’s your cup of tea – but towards the close I mused right on my Zero chart that the bulltarts would have to get a move on to make it to their EOD spike to the upside. Of course the usual suspects didn’t disappoint and we have already gained five handles after hours.

This is how I see it – we most likely see new highs tomorrow or Friday at the latest. If you have a chance to buy the dip tomorrow, take advantage of it. If we gap higher – well, see you at 990 – and I’d be very surprised if the bulltarts wouldn’t try to make a run for the coveted four digit mark.

Cheers

Mole


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at the usual social media waterholes.
Enjoyed this post? Consider a small donation to keep those evil deeds coming!

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  • http://www.facebook.com/screasy v8muscle

    Today's EOD action I think was the last of the shorts trying to cover at a better price.

    Definitely going to be buying this dip though, there might be one more shot at lower prices overnight if the Euro prints new lows, which is very well might. I think the MM's will drive this lower one more time to blow long stops out under 1.400, so my target is around 1.3980-1.3960.

    Euro Chart: http://screencast.com/t/9EsNqosy7

  • karupted

    I think your red line projection is the best probability. I can easily see 1007.5 to 1008.9 if the trend continues. Absent an external earth-shattering event, this print may be reached as early as Thursday or Friday next week.

  • ropey

    When this market does eventually turn, don't forget some of the gorgeous gaps made on the way up, likely most of them will get filled, especially that sucker at 900-905 – if in doubt about holding when a downtrend is established, that's a good point of focus ( for me personally anyway )..

  • Lonewolf2007

    This is an excellent read.

    http://tinyurl.com/nn5dps

  • ropey

    $NDX – on prophet, i see 3 things which may stall techs – the 50% fib at 1619, a trendline down from the highs which conveniently intersects with this level and the resistance of some major down moves again right around the 1620-1630 – i don't see it going much higher here before juicy pullback, using the fibs from the rally made on July 8th to the highs of 1620-1630 (speculation) – so when it runs out, i'm looking for a run back to 1560 (23.6) , 1536-1540 (38.2) or indeed the 50% at 1509 before taking the on the next leg..
    jmo..

    Looking for catalysts, CSCO is one and reports on 5th Aug..

  • http://www.actionpointsta.com StonerRock68

    If anyone has a copy of the Paul Tudor Jones video, I'd sincerely like to have a link or copy. I'm not smart enough to figure out the Torrent nonsense.

    Thanks!

  • Me_XMan

    I see SPX 1050 coming very soon.

  • rhae

    I wanted to respond to some coments from last page on ERY… was afraid it would get lost.
    I have a strong daily resistance line on ERY at 20.99 which could cause a little stall? However, today was a high volume alert day (on ERY) so it remains to be seen if it has enough juice to glide thru? I think the Gap near 25 will get filled, sometime. This sure is fun but charts seem to have that crack the whip look and a snap and yipes feel…… http://screencast.com/t/JXRhl9fH4

  • fa_q

    There's some excellent analysis. You should start a blog

  • rhae

    almost forgot about CSCO reports late and now a member of the DOW…Chambers runs a tight ship, so won't rule it out…

  • PRSGuitars

    Download Vuze. Download the torrent from the zerohedge link. Open the torrent file (double-click on it, most likely). When the file moves from is done downloading, go to your Vuze Downloads folder and find the file.

    Just make sure to close Vuze when you're done. Keeping it open will send the file to other people (called 'seeding' a full copy – thus, the illegal part).

  • fa_q

    Almost 5 months of frying the shorts and the bulls are acting like 5 year olds with a year's supply of Pixie Sticks. Sugar highs don't last very long. It's late, I'm tired but this wave of bullishness has made me sick to my stomach just as the bearishness made me puke in March. We're going to hell….oh wait….we're going to the moon!!! Probably somewhere in the middle. The lack or perspective is absolutely mind blowing

    I said I thought the market would trade 965 today, missed it by 3.65 points. So close.

    Here's my favorite – oh, the market shrugged off bad news today it must be bullish. As if the market traded off news. If it tanks/rises it is because of the news. If it doesn't, it's because it shrugged off the news. Convenient. And my fortune teller says…

    Still looking for 990ish and will get short again. Will be a half lot and will save the other lot for 1010 as I have counts that put us at those two spots. If I get both filled, they won't be 10 point rides.

  • de3600

    rofl

  • http://zstock7.com/ zstock
  • de3600

    Hey Z I have been watching some of your calls they have been real good.You nailed msft and a bunch last week

  • http://www.actionpointsta.com StonerRock68

    PRS,

    I got it. I appreciate it.

  • onorio

    You crack my head Fa_q! 😀

  • onorio

    Carefull V8, we`ve completed a possible ABC at 1.4006, and we`re pop at the top channel line…We could rally to new highs from here.

  • C's & 3's

    Rather than trade myself out of my calls, I am going to hedge them once it looks like small W5 of 1 is in. I don't want to be cute and miss the monster 3 of C that should really have us rocking.

  • http://zstock7.com/ zstock

    I'm behind on who's reporting, so I haven't been able to do anymore-
    TM, reports aug 4 , 2am–#1 outcome, nose dive. #2 outcome, hold your nose.
    Short CAT–I think it topped out yesterday

  • http://www.facebook.com/screasy v8muscle

    agreed, and I think we should rally to new highs. But MM's need to blow out the stops under 1.4000

  • PRSGuitars

    Awesome! It's a great vid. Sorry to be curt with you before — just thought I'd keep it brief. Didnt mean disrespect.

    PTJ is wildly smart but equally wild. We can all learn from his intensity (and that WACKY 300+ yr old tree @ his house…wow…)

  • http://www.pacfreehotwater.com steveo77

    Fujisan, i lost your last comment, but yes in the USD/CAD long, was stopped out, went back in at lower price….not that happy with the entry based on hourly Person Pivot, but this is a intermediate term trade, so we will see.

    Chart of the near term trade
    http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/2009/07/stopped

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    or could be dollar has found bottom ….has struggled down for a while now…..while everybody getting more bearish on dollar…

  • Twin

    Soundtrack for the ascent

    SpaceX Falcon 1 (Flight 4 – Crystal Method: High Roller)

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eWtfE1GHNjg

  • PRSGuitars

    lol — awesome man! I'd love to know what people listen to while trading.

    Somehow I do well with U2 or Bear McCreary's compositions for the Battlestar Galactica soundtrack (seriously) as well as Paul Oakenfold's Tranceport.

    I'm also a huge fan of Roll It Up — what an amazing intro (the choppy synth minus drums at first).

  • Twin

    love it!

  • PRSGuitars

    Dork central alert —

    I actually synched a highlights reel of me playing Halo 2 to Roll It Up and Galaxy Bounce by Chem. Bros… talk about pump up music.

    You know you're a loser when you catch yourself discussing trance and big beat as background music for your xbox game video montage at 6 AM after scalping EUR/USD for 1.5%.

    Youtube — “Mischa Barton's Halo 2 Montage”. Yawn… where'd my dignity go?

  • Twin

    laughs

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601101

    temporary dollar bottom..??? Or fake out?

  • Me_XMan

    Futures are rocking this morning. What's going on?

  • http://www.srsfinance.com SRSFinance

    UUP has had a lot of volume, the majority of it on up days, while trading in the range of $23.50-$24.10ish.

    The past two days it broke up off its lows on particularly heavy trading volume. It needs to overcome its 20-day average to prove itself here, but its refusal to break lower after breaking $23.90 support is rather telling.

    Meanwhile, FXE busted below its 20- and 30-day averages on volume.

    The markets look like they are ready to make a bullish move higher as Mole suggests, but I'm taking a wait-and-see approach before trying anything on either the long or short side due to the behavior of these two currencies.

  • annamall

    Morning all, Mole you have to make sure that Oscar is made of high fine quality Chinese plastic for the GS boyz! LOL
    I said yesterday the same exact thing, I added longs all day on the SPY Sept 100's and even took a nap not worrying that the GS Boyz would do they're stick.

    I say 1000 (I mentioned this yesterday) by today or tomorrow, and the only retracement I feel we will get is back to that 970 area (which the bulls defended with their horns all week) then back off to possibly 1150.

    good luck today everyone! :))

  • annamall

    The Bulls had their Wheaties! 🙂

  • ausdude

    Also, you can contact Springheel_Jack. He has a private link that he is willing to share with fellow posters.

  • annamall

    Wow I am short USD/CAD and up 67 pips this morning, nice! I think v8 steered me to that one! thank you.

    I am also going short USD/JPY as I see the USD has only has a bounce that will not last. I love FX!

  • Bankrupt

    ok but good luck for me is bad luck for you ;P

  • ckeltner

    Thank you

  • annamall

    Then I take it back! LOL 🙂

  • http://www.facebook.com/screasy v8muscle

    for some reason, I dont think so. I think today will be a mirror image of yesterday. My new downside target on Euro is 1.3890

    Took this cap last night to show to my trading partner, but not much has changed. Price action has continued to consolidate under the pivot. http://screencast.com/t/6l9ZpZONU

  • annamall

    I assume you mean the fx EUR/USD right? and not the equity market? you may be right are you still short USD/CAD?

    I am still learning so any help is appreciated!

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    Get ready for this market to breakout this morning.Don't short it….

  • http://www.facebook.com/screasy v8muscle

    yeah eur usd is what I'm talking about. And I didnt end up taking the USD/CAD Trade but it looks like a good one considering I think USD will strengthen today at least.

  • Douala

    CTA trader’s conference call notes:

    Rule number 1 for traders-don’t lose money.

    However trite that statement may seem, it is the most important rule for all of us to follow. Traders who have found a niche, a statistically valid and repeatable edge, will be successful as long as they have the discipline to cut losses short. Although a simple concept, once ego and self esteem get factored into the equation, most of us can easily rationalize staying in a losing position, allowing a small loss to mushroom into a potentially devastating financial calamity.

    While in these pages we have steadfastly expected a decline in the equities, prices have refused to buckle, with early morning weakness enticing buyers to place bids supporting the market. Markets that open weak and finish higher are technically strong markets, demanding respect, regardless of our own opinions.

    This underlying strength doesn’t necessarily mean throwing caution to the wind; it simply means respect the trend. Trying to initiate counter trend trades usually is a fruitless endeavor, no matter how intellectually stimulating or emotionally satisfying. Until multiple signs of exhaustion occur, as multitudes of stocks churn and descend from the Distribution Zone into Sell Alerts, the path of least resistance is higher.

    We believe this uptrend will eventually give way to a substantial decline, one that will be aided by a bevy of Black Swans, ultimately unnerving even the most ardent of Bulls. But that moment has not yet arrived, and until then, all we can do is try to pick up a bit of performance here and there, keeping our risk to a minimum.

    We are not so arrogant to tell you we have all the answers; all we try to do is give our readers our take on the markets, identifying some low-risk high-reward trades given current market conditions. If we sense the markets are acting irrationally, CTA increases the cash position for clients, preferring to wait for more favorable opportunities down the road. It may seem timid or boring to some, but having our own money on the line daily for the better part of three decades has taught us to only take on trades that we feel have an edge. No such confidence; no trade.

    Until the S&P reaches our next target of S&P 1000 to 1013 (which a week ago we saw as a possibility but a remote one), or decisively breaks support (loosely defined as 940, the prior swing highs of the January and May advances), aggressively selling short in this market is out of the question. If equity prices continue to mark time waffling back and forth, consolidating recent gains, it is conceivable we could even move to the long side as over-bought conditions are relieved by time rather than a correction.

    Sooner or later the time for establishing shorts will arrive.

  • J-So

    Mole you made a post over a week ago in regards to a drop in the money supply next week. Is that still a go for next week or has that schedule changed? Thanks.

  • annamall

    yea, I closed that out. So how far do you think the USD has to go? I also closed out the CAD for a healthy one, but came out neutral due to the EUR long. ah well, that's what learning is all about.
    Who do you use V8 for a trading platform?

  • Twin

    limit short@987 xpct a 1/2 gap fill to 981

  • http://www.facebook.com/screasy v8muscle

    To me, the price action from yesterday eod until now looks like a huge bear flag. I think we will at least break 1.4000, and because this bear flag is so huge we might break 1.3900 to everyones surprise. Then it will be off to the races and the dollar will tank and stocks can go to 1050

  • thelefteyeguy

    how true…

    bad news for US markets this past week but not one bit of any noticeable selloff.

    to the moon!

  • shortcover

    GDP tomorrow morning… Market may gap up at the open…but be prepared for frustrating grind again…

  • annamall

    thank you muscle man! 🙂

  • disrespekt

    jfc they are ramming this shit up in the pm

  • annamall

    More shorts to cover again, the jobs number was better than expected, so as I mentioned we may see 1000 on SPX today or tomorrow.

  • C.C. Rider

    Which one is it? Oh, it's the internet!

    Anna says this morning….

    I added longs all day on the SPY Sept 100's and even took a nap not worrying that the GS Boyz would do they're stick.

    Anna said, one hour b4 close….

    I am basically neutral and mostly cash now. I am not going to try and gamble this move anymore. I hope everyone does well! 🙂

  • amokta

    this is a joke – all this talk of a bear market/dip, when ftse/dow break higher everyday!

  • annamall

    I have 20 spy 100 calls and hedged with some bear spreads, I said yesterday afternoon at 4pm I loaded up on spy calls. so you aren't listening!

  • C.C. Rider

    If that's your story, you better stick to it. All I see so far is you talking out both sides of your mouth. GL in your trade.

  • thelefteyeguy

    when you hear cramer even talk about a retracement…then you know something is wrong.

  • thelefteyeguy

    well lets see where this W5 takes us…

  • Bankrupt

    then this has to be most pathetic w4 in the history

  • http://blackchartz.blogspot.com/ kchu

    990 today, 1000 tomorrow

  • thelefteyeguy

    as Mortie pointed out the last 3 days completed what it looks to be an ABC…

  • Smeagol

    I see the initial claims was 584K, while the consensus was 575K … so the number is worse than expected. OR maybe you're not talking about the initial claims?

  • annamall

    Just repeating what they said on CNBC aka Kevin Ferry (to me that's a ton of jobless claims)

  • K.I.M.

    yeah, me to some micro amount at 988

  • lester

    good morning all. I have been away for two days so that is why the comment count was low.

  • fuw

    I'm not trusting this to run up, but naturally I may be wrong. EVERYBODY is now expecting 1000.

    The 7y auction at 1pm will be interesting.

  • Iguanadon

    C'mon folks, this is all GOOD news on CNBC.com headlines. Copied and pasted as they are.

    Exxon Profit Down 66% as Oil Price Drop Leaves Mark
    Motorola Sales Tumble, but Cash on Hand Rises
    Travelers Profit Drops, Falls Shy of Estimates
    Weak Treasury Auctions Raise Worries About US Debt
    PennyMac, Run by Ex-Countrywide Execs, Prices IPO
    Curbing Speculation Won't Cut Oil Prices Long-Term
    CIT Seals $3 Billion Credit Deal with Barclays
    AstraZeneca Raises Outlook as Generics Held at Bay
    Shell Profit Falls 70% but Beats Forecasts
    Sony Posts Quarterly Loss on Firmer Yen, Weak TVs
    Airlines Carry Less Cargo, People in June: IATA

  • thelefteyeguy

    doesn't matter bad news can be spun positive…sure the numbers are worse but the trend for the past months looks positive

    Now CNBC can use that headline to explain the 150 point rally on the dow…

  • thelefteyeguy

    …we've had 2 days of terrible auctions…there's a lot of houses that need to distributed shares to the general public

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    2000 next week lol

  • Niktus

    I think they are spinning the continously jobless claims which was better than expected. As opposed to initail jobless claims which was worse than expected(584k).

  • Twin

    the mkt wants confirmation from the open, it could go higher straight on, europe looks like it will go higher

  • annamall

    Isn't that the truth lefteye! 🙂 I posted link below about the report.

  • thelefteyeguy

    there's more but CNBC can fit it all at once…

  • The Unknown Trader

    Actually, I think the initial claims were several thousand less than the analysts expected.

  • shortcover

    the train left the station in early March…looks like there's no more track out there at the 1000 mile mark…look out below

  • fuw

    I'm not so sure that the rally will be stopped by news, but more of investor re-evaluation/reality check.

  • springheel_jack

    Not sure this train needs track.

    It just needs everyone to clap their hands and believe in fairies.

  • springheel_jack

    Is that a passport photo?

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    anyone loading up longs on this gap down?

  • springheel_jack

    No kidding.

  • lester

    what gap down?

  • gusrock1414

    Already found a story of the day for our entertainment on Bloomberg.

    Story of the Day: Tracy Hickman’s taco supreme dinner for three at Taco Bell cost $11.99. She ended up paying $300 for overdraft charges triggered by the meal and other debit purchases. “I stopped using credit cards to keep me out of trouble and then got hit with overdraft fees,” Hickman said. “It’s not fair.”

    I hope they were tasty.

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    ES futs right at the open

  • http://stainlesssteelchicken.blogspot.com/ StainlessSteelChicken
  • gusrock1414

    Nice avatar. I met them last weekend.

  • annamall

    ROTFLMAO!!! funny

  • GDII

    good morning / evening, my fellow rats. greeting from shanghai. i have sleep disorder, plus get drunk everyday, plus girls, plus … in short, i don't know what i am talking about 😀
    the chinese tree got slow down a little bit recently. now the chinese believe if they snz, the entire world will get cold. i am thus expect a pullback of the equity market of entire world.
    also my small secret system shows a negative sign for today.

  • Smeagol

    Sure! It's a beautiful picture, that fits quite well near annamall's one 😉

  • thelefteyeguy

    if this is A…there will be a C sometime in late Aug or Sept…look out

  • springheel_jack

    They do contrast well.

    There's a disney movie in there somewhere.

  • http://stainlesssteelchicken.blogspot.com/ StainlessSteelChicken

    Round Number, Round Number, Round Number!

  • springheel_jack

    LOL

  • annamall

    Yo Kero Taco Bell!!! hahaha I miss the little chiquaqua!!

  • annamall

    Hey C, i actually closed most spy calls and will re=enter on any dip. 🙂

  • annamall

    hehehehe! 🙂

  • GDII

    dx up, round to 80. qm down, round to 60.
    /es, what is /es doing here? lol

  • thelefteyeguy

    couldnt have said it better 😉

  • annamall

    thanks yes. unknown 🙂

  • rhae

    SPY gapped from oversold to overbought on it's daily pivot points… So, unless a trend day it should not hold… So will the pop drop? To soon to say…

  • thelefteyeguy

    yeah RIP…

  • annamall

    hahahah LOL touch'e Smeagol..

  • thelefteyeguy

    i'd like to be bitchslapped with a 999 …but it won't happen today

  • annamall

    Loved that little fellow, I even have a toy one that when you press him tummy says “Yo Kero Taco Bell” my Pomeranians (long haired chiquaqua's) carry it around pressing the tummy. LOL

  • bist

    Oil selling off right from the open

  • fuw

    Cannot be seen outside of the US. What is it?

  • thelefteyeguy

    too bad alpha's not here…i wonder if im seeing 4 small waves completed on this W5 of A…could be 1 more wave up to complete this W5 this afternoon…hmmm

  • Macrawn

    That was a disappointing opening. I was hoping for a little more decision either fill the gap or take off.

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    Another gang bang day

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    FAS flying high

  • http://stainlesssteelchicken.blogspot.com/ StainlessSteelChicken

    Sorry we cannot tell you.

  • http://stainlesssteelchicken.blogspot.com/ StainlessSteelChicken

    Just kidding it's “Move B*tch” by Ludacris

  • thelefteyeguy

    is GE included in FAS?

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    Trying to buy FAS no pull back lol

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    Were hitting 1000 spx for sure at this rate! 4 digits here we come

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    not sure

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    shorted /NQ 1626

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)
  • lester

    it appears we are on the way to mother of all short opportunities

  • annamall

    Mole and i both said today or tomorrow 1000. 🙂

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    If you love shorting near 1000 you will really like adding to your shorts at 1100 lol

  • annamall

    Careful Lester, just saying. 🙂 But better than chasing calls. Good for you!

  • shortcover

    could be already in C…the modest sideways action past few days is a weak, truncated B?

  • annamall

    We may get some retracement around 1pm when the bond auction is coming up.

  • bee01

    The mother of all shorting opportunities was last year. Most missed it and are seem to be desperately looking for a repeat performance. They'll never make it that easy.

  • rhae

    SPY Flag Target… anchors very subjective, so I will give it a zone… 99.75 — 99.50
    of course nothing amazes me anymore
    http://screencast.com/t/QfYueHjeoU

  • annamall

    LOL so true BH!! 🙂

  • lester

    SPY cannot get thru 99.5

  • annamall

    long Mr softie 25 Sept calls

  • lester

    but they won't make it easy to get thru 1000 either

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    shorted /es 992 (holding /nq short 1626)
    feeling suicidal

  • thelefteyeguy

    yah…we are up 2%, but no one can explain it 😉

  • lester

    why now, I have not gone short yet…

  • TraderJoe

    Shorted at /es 991.75 … GL

  • shortcover

    i still swear i see a 3 peak and dome on the S&P…we do 1000-1100 bang around there until late Sept??

  • annamall

    Hey David. I like a brave man! Braveheart! 🙂

  • Twin

    i had better crow while im still winning.

    winning a futures tournamant!

    http://www.strategyxchange.com/Tournaments/T1/R

  • lester

    SPY just pulled back from 99.67 to 99.5

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    whats your stop?

  • Santinii

    True, but if we get a better than expected auction, we're breaking 1000.

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    only in hindsight we'll know that today was “the day when shooting star fell from moronic better than worse sky”
    …or not…

  • springheel_jack

    Not sure we're watching the same oil. Mine gapped up & is still rising steeply.

    Which one are you looking at? LOL

  • annamall

    yes, I was saying right before, if the auction does well, maybe higher than 1000! 🙂

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    so nice of you, but…no woman likes man with no money 🙂

  • annamall

    🙂

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    since everyone expects 1000 – could be a very good moment for market to disappoint
    (MrClam stated that idea yesterday, I believe)

  • springheel_jack

    I caught that. A repeat would still be nice though.

  • gusrock1414

    Can anyone give us some general volume or participation numbers? Are people really piling in? Keirsten, Anna, anyone?

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    Aug 3rd 🙂

  • innatedc

    This here folks is one of the greatest corrupted setups in history. Many unsuspecting retail bulls will be very hurt when all is said and done. Did you all see the magazine cover TK showed? Can't imagine anyone on this board going long for more than a day or two……..

  • thelefteyeguy

    +1…

  • ropey

    I hate to throw a spanner in the works but throw up a SPY chart, there's a gap at 108 (i.e. ~ 1080 ) – i think the market goes for that once it gets over 1000…
    There's too much momo here but not fighting it, they're sucking all the retail longs in…

  • rhae

    I really like George Lindsey, but I swear I can't remember how many times I had to tear down that domed roof before it finally caved in on the big bust last year…. Your targets can certainly pan out… George was more right than wrong.

  • ropey

    nods, gap at 108 on the SPY – waiting for that to fill before shorting at the very least lol

  • Basilfawlty

    Q & A

    If it is true that less than 10% of participants in the equity markets are consistently make money and more than 90% loss money, which camp are you in?

    If you are in the > 90%, what are you doing to join the other camp?

    P/S: The significant moves of the past 2 weeks were clearly telegraphed. Maybe Manuel does know something after all.

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT
  • lester

    I have given up on trying to figure market pychology out. The Bulls see 1000 as a target, and the bears see 1000 as a short opportunity. I think they will both be right. Maybe kiss 1000 and then drop hard.

  • ropey

    Gap on SPY at 108 – keep it on your radar, it's >only< 80 points away – probably some fighting around this 1000-1010, maybe some slight pullbacks but not going big time short here – too much momo….suspect that'll fill before we start our next move ( unless of course there's a 1-2-3 suckerpunch of bad news which sends the market reeling down to 900, which i don't see until way later into the fall )..

    Gap fill conveniently ties in with a 50% fib retrace on the PY and was created around early-mid oct 2008..

  • rhae

    Greater Fools are… at least that is the greater fool theory… you can always sell to someone else at a higher price… I have no idea….

  • bist

    UCO – my favorite oil etf to short. It gapped up and started selling off, since then it's reversed course. FULL OF HOT AIR. I'm trying to get a good entry into ERX puts

  • thelefteyeguy

    over at TK, virginia_jim posted this…all the credit goes to him…very informative chart…give credibility to why David shorted…

    http://content.screencast.com/users/Virginia_Ji

  • lester

    don't you mean an hour or two.

  • annamall

    I am seeing quite some volume on my Awesome oscillator Gus. 🙂

  • innatedc

    I hate making calls so I'll make a “wonder”…..the absolutely perfect candle set up (one with a big topping tail) for a released GDP number tomorrow morning…time will tell….good luck all, not playing today til the EOD…..

  • ablebonus

    JPM had this part right:

    Though the overall short interest base has declined, the “tactical” shorts are going to feel the squeeze over the next two days.

    Futures buying into the close yesterday on above average e-mini volume. The average trailing three month S&P 500 return during the last two trading days is +1.67%, suggesting a month-end close of 991. ETF $ value traded as a % of total $ value was 31.1% below the 31.7% 1-month avg. Look for a positive month-end mark to market. GE upgraded by a buy by a competitor this morning. CSCO is scheduled to report earnings next Weds. and has risen 16.9% in the since mid month. Channel checks suggest internal forecasts could be too low and increased chatter from market participates also noted the potential for a 1Q guidance to increase [July Fiscal]. If the S&P 500 closes above 990 Friday and you get a strong report and forward guidance from CSCO, [I don’t really care if you argue, it’s already baked into the stock], you may “out” the magic S&P 500 1000 on the board next week. After that, I see the risk reward for the next 50 points as skewed to the downside.

  • shortcover

    i'll wait until then and short w/ both fists when we start to see some decent signals…rather not go long. at this point what is the upside vs longside risk? hard to say…

  • gusrock1414

    I just want to know the general participation. This feels like the beginning of the end of the rally. Bears being bludgeoned for weeks, commentators getting ever so confident that things are turning around, and one of my coworkers just came to me and told me he was putting some cash to work in his retirement. Signals all around that we are getting closer to the end of this madness.

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    I'll be running for cover long before we touch 1000

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    Can we see new highs please lol

  • annamall

    Same here Ropey, damn glad I never got filled on that MA put spread. whew!

  • annamall

    Careful shorting even here, the oscillator is showing higher divergence as the tape goes up.

  • lester

    is this a special anna oscillator? I am guessing that you say higher we go.

  • rhae

    SPY flag target probably in 99.72 will have to poke around for something else to play with now… guts or no brains to call that now… we just have to see

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    Mole is sleeping through this run up lol

  • annamall

    you were saying Les? 🙂

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    Im seeing very high volume on the Ask on the /ES's..about 20% more than Bids, which to me is a bullish sentiment. At the moment anyway. Tables can turn anytime. I trade what I see and thats what I see right now

  • lester

    I just cannot chase things.

  • thelefteyeguy

    i can picture him sitting in the kitchen eating breakfast and watching some anime…he's probably not even noticing what's happening cause he's be bang on about W4 moving sideways…and then knock out punch

  • bee01

    Fantastic call Mole. Agent Orange is kicking ass.

  • lester

    I asked you below about the oscillator. I'm sure you missed it with all the money you are making.

  • annamall

    The oscillator is showing higher divergence on the 15 min SPX.

  • http://dreadwinaard.livejournal.com dreadwin

    Glad I didn't get those AAPL puts I talked about yesterday. Da-amn!

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    SPX hit TL on daily

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    madness prevails when manipulation is at hand. dont try to predict the future, just roll with the punches, its the only way to survive, a.k.a bank coin.

  • fa_q

    I've got a 1/4 at 993. The rest are queued up at 998, 1005, 1010

  • finalbull

    mole is not sleeping, he is out looking to buy lots of “FIVE GALLONS VASELINE” so he can sell it to me and other bears ;0)

  • springheel_jack

    I love this short. Set it up here & forget it for a few months & you can reasonably expect to double your money.

    Oil may well already have peaked. If not i don't see it rising past $85 at the max.

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    If this breakout to another new high i'm selling my longs and taking a break ..Will wait to the afternoon to see where we are…

  • molecool

    ¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨
    ¨°º¤ø„¸ N E W „ø¤º°¨
    ¸„ø¤º°¨ P O S T “°º¤ø„¸
    ¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°º¤ø„¸

  • Twin

    it 'should' hit R3 995.5 and turn dn

  • molecool

    Actually BigHouse was right – I had another bad night and somehow slept in after popping a pill. Wasn't really surprised to wake up to that spike…

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    I'm shorting this with everything I have.
    http://www.screencast.com/users/alphahorn/folde

  • Keirsten

    Douala- note the price action on DELL today- they gapped w/the market, but not really participating with the parabolic climb. Be careful.

    Still short OIH unless it gets of R2, sitting @ 103.70. If it jumps that, I'm running for the hills. LOL

    RE: block trades- I give up. Nothing impressive to tell you the truth, but it doesn't really matter, they can push the price without it. I have 100.86 as resistance for SPY and will trade accordingly. There is little resistance until 105.53 on overhead supply from that point on fwiw.

    Back to scalping- G/L to one and all. 🙂

    Basil- good call btw. 🙂

  • ckeltner

    What is your downside target to cover your position? I believe I caught earlier you said you were going to hang onto this one for awhile.

  • Tronacate

    I shorted the TF near eod and puckered the whole time…..it worked out ok. I figured everybody was looking for the explosive up move……just like everybody thinks 1000 is just around the bend. Never know…….we could truncate any day and the bulls will be licking their…..you know what.
    Every move like this is always a “who would've thought”. With GS running the show the whole game looks to be changed…….forever.
    Small towns like mine are getting crushed with the unemployment…..and contrary to the moving average happily quoted as showing employment improving…..I see pay cuts and massive layoffs still happening. Our largest employer just laid off 200 people of which 100 or so were 100-200k jobs with excellent benefits.
    Set the bar low enough and everybody meets expectations……what happens when reality hits?

  • Tronacate

    I shorted the TF near eod and puckered the whole time…..it worked out ok. I figured everybody was looking for the explosive up move……just like everybody thinks 1000 is just around the bend. Never know…….we could truncate any day and the bulls will be licking their…..you know what.
    Every move like this is always a “who would've thought”. With GS running the show the whole game looks to be changed…….forever.
    Small towns like mine are getting crushed with the unemployment…..and contrary to the moving average happily quoted as showing employment improving…..I see pay cuts and massive layoffs still happening. Our largest employer just laid off 200 people of which 100 or so were 100-200k jobs with excellent benefits.
    Set the bar low enough and everybody meets expectations……what happens when reality hits?

    When the computers start hitting the sell button things are going to go quick…….they just want the money coming in full bore first…..then it's time to take it.( and hopefully us too 🙂