Anyone Feeling Bearish?
I’m about to turn into an evil Halloween pumpkin but wanted to throw out a few charts before I hit the hay. After all, these are exciting times for the bears and I owe it to you guys to keep you in the loop. Plus, I enjoy scaring the heck out of you with the occasional bullish scenario 😉 Well, you’re in luck tonight – the bulls would have to run like hell tomorrow to avert impending doom & gloom. Maybe they’ll pull it off – it’s OPX Friday after all – but I can’t trade fear and hypothesis – which is why I stick with my charts:
Updated wave count and a few kick ass charts below for anyone donning a secret decoder ring. The rest of you guys will have to wait until tomorrow – sorry. If you are interested in becoming a Gold member then don’t waste time and sign up here. And if you are a Zero subscriber it includes access to all Gold posts, so you actually get double the bang for your buck.
We continue to follow copper futures as a supporting gauge of what may be next for equities. Well, copper continues to push down indicating a slow down in production – not that I could give a rat’s rectum about fundamentals. But this chart continues to be proven right, so I’ll keep pimping it to you guys. If it ain’t broken – don’t fix it.
EUR/JPY – my new best buddy – and it’s already raiding my mini-fridge and stealing my tools. Damn thing decided to swing up over night – actually, not too surprising as it’s gotten the heck kicked out of it lately. On the 5 min chart it’s ready to roll over just about now (i.e. 1:30am EDT) but on the 30 min chart we could easily push towards 116 or even 118. Word on the street is Japan was buying currency and the Swiss got involved about an hour ago.
However, the ES futures thus far have not been able to mimic the intensity of this retrace. Not to fall prey to recency bias but it seems to me index futures continue to lag behind and I’ll give it only maybe 40-50% that it’ll pop above this afternoon’s close by the morning.
I know you want it – the updated wave count. Not too much has changed, beside the fact that I faded out Soylent Green to statistically low levels. We have some work to do before we hit my target zone. First is to take out th May 6th low in the cash index (no, futures do not count in my book). Then we need to take out the February lows – not too far away, but another hurdle. A breach of that one should accelerate things nicely as hedge fund managers will be running around screaming with their hair on fire. Somewhere in between there is also the 200-day SMA – not that I care about that fucking thing but everyone else seems to.
Some of you know that don’t I like gold very much – despite its ability to attract hot babes over here in L.A. (I’m all about the bling) trading the futures is a royal pain in the ass. I heavily traded the COMEX contract back in the days until blatant manipulations simply got out of hand a few years ago. Anyway, just look at these gaps in the past few days. I said it last week and I say again today: Don’t be long gold when it goes exponential – actually looking at this chart it didn’t just go exponential – it went parabolic.
I was lucky calling the top, yeah – and I’ll bathe in my glory as long as it takes to shut up the cretins who gave me a hard time over at the Slope last week (last laugh is echoing in the evil lair, pal – you know who you are). Anyway, I promise I’ll be nice – after all it’s Evil Speculator 2.0 and we’re all about banking coin.
Alright, let’s be serious here for a minute – I enjoy shooting the proverbial shit as much as the next megalomaniac. But this needs to be said: It’s not going to be easy, folks. Expect to wake up one day and see a lot of your profits of the prior day or even week wiped away. Maybe it will be news driven – maybe it will just happen, which is what I go by. But you need to have a plan NOW – TODAY. What are you going to do if the market ramps 100 handles against you (on the SPX, not the DOW)? Jumping in/out will just get you killed and chasing the tape after a bad exit. This is a long term game – if you can’t accept that you might as well step away.
I can draw all the squiggles I want on my charts – in the end every single one of us will be surprised by how the market will unfold eventually. It’ll be scary – either way – down or up. Be ready mentally – or you will get thrown out of the saddle.
Alright, now that I have spoken my peace I’m going to catch some zeeezzz 😉
Stay frosty, my beloved stainless steel rats!