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The End Of The Line

The End Of The Line

The End Of The Line

by MoleOctober 15, 2012

It’s been a very busy and exhausting two weeks for me. Fortunately I survived my martial arts seminar with only a few bruises and a sprained toe – some of my fellow participants weren’t so lucky. Even without getting bounced across the matt for four days, physically speaking this trip is starting to take its toll. As much as I enjoyed visiting my old stomping grounds here in California, I’m very much looking forward to my own house in Valencia now – and as you may imagine my own cozy bed. Of course before any of that happens I will have to spend another 14 grueling hours being tormented by Iberia. Can’t say I’m looking forward to that – in particular as we have accumulated a lot of luggage along the way.

This is going to be a short post as it’s getting late over here and I’m about to drop off. As on every Sunday we are taking a look at some of our more salient long term charts. The spoos have reached what I would consider the end of the line. On Thursday night I suggested the possibility of a bear trap but if we fall below ES 1415 then that scenario will be falling by the wayside. The dotted yellow line was our old support line – that one is pretty much shot to hell at this point. The blue on is our volume hole, which is getting pretty narrow at this point. A jump to the other side would not take much momentum and then easily trigger a cascade.

The SPX point and figure chart continues to point down – our current bearish price objective is 1385. There is not much else to show or to say here. I have checked the daily, weekly, and monthly panels and there is no support beyond the volume hole. So once we drop below 1415 things could get pick up steam. So keep watching the futures overnight and early in the morning.

Gold is looking a bit like the daily spoos chart in that we are at theoretical support in the form of the lower 25-day Bollinger band. However I think gold has better odds at clinging to it then equities IMNSHO.

Main reason is our P&F which still has us in the neutral zone. The bullish PO has been met and we are awaiting instructions. Obviously a drop below 1740 would trigger a bearish price objective, so let’s keep an eye on that price level.
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Copper has been observing weekly and monthly resistance. It’s looking bearish but it’s been in the same trading range for almost a year now.

The bearish PO of 3.55 on the P&F would be inside both monthly BBs, so this may be a good spot to be short.

Crude – I’m showing you the P&F first which is still showing a bearish PO of 77.

The daily however has found some support at the 100-day SMA. I think the bulls are okay as long as they manage to hold that one – below 90 crude may take a diver lower.

EUR/USD – not able to breach those daily Net-Lines – at least thus far.

Similar to gold the P&F is still in the neutral zone. A drop through 127.5 is needed to take this one lower but thus far it’s correcting sideways.

The long term panel has us below monthly resistance – quite a bit of it I may add. Two entangled SMAs and a NLBL that’s been acting like a wall. Maybe my EUR/USD exchange rate has a glimmer of hope after all? 😉

To round things out here’s a LT view of ole’ bucky. In essence it’s not getting out of the gate. After bouncing off both weekly and monthly support we are back below the 100-month SMA. So, I’m a bit ambivalent here right now – as both the EUR and the Dollar are looking iffy.

That’s all I can muster up tonight – see you guys tomorrow bright eyed and bushy tailed – and hopefully a bit more rested 😉



About The Author
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at various social media waterholes below.