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At The Banks Of The Rubicon

At The Banks Of The Rubicon

by The MoleFebruary 22, 2016

We haven’t been seeing much weakness across equity futures during the Sunday night session and there’s a pretty decent chance that the bulls are preparing to attempt a crossing of the Rubicon.


Unlike Gaius Julius Cesar in 49 BC they will only have to cross the range between ES 1940 and 1960 – a mere 20 handles on the current March futures contract. However even if we see the crossing and the proverbial dice have been cast, I don’t see a lot of strength here right now and let’s not forget that any additional handle above 1960 puts the medium bearish case into question. So I would expect some resistance if we push that high.

On the other hand – it would most likely represent the single best short opportunity we’ll get this year. Of course, a final judgment should be rendered once we a) get there and b) assess that there is sufficient lack in participation to warrant a contrarian position.


Since my crystal ball is still in the shop my only recourse here is to simply take things one step at a time.  Which means currently I’m tentatively short the NQ with a long position on the ES set to trigger around 1940. If that one triggers I intend to run it into 1960 and then reassess the situation.


Bonds – I’m long here with a stop below all that short term support. The 100-hour BB is starting to compress and it’s time for this one to get out of the gate or I expect a bit more downside on a medium term basis.


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About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at the usual social media waterholes.
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