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March 19, 2018

The Land Of Smiles

The land of smiles has become the land of sweaty balls… so I’m clicking my heels together three times and escaping back to Australia for some peace and quiet.┬áThat being said, I feel a disturbance in the crypto force. Remember last week I said that bitcoin should be going down hard but I don’t trust it? It felt “engineered” which I hardly ever say out loud.

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March 15, 2018


It is axiomatic that surprise actions cause the biggest moves.

So it’s no surprise at all that when everybody expects support to hold, and it doesn’t… hilarity ensues.

That really looks like a completed retest of the lows that should kick off at least a test of the old highs.

Aww sheet… that’s gonna leave a mark

So now we really are retesting the lows. Except THIS time, notice the volume is rising to the downside. Odds now favour breaking support again.

But that’s not the whole story, BTC is a heavily manipulated market, and a concerted effort by the Tether/Whales crew could jump in and [...]

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March 12, 2018

How I learned to stop hating and love the Crypto

Ask… and ye shall receive.

Let’s talk about Cryptos. I know for a fact most of you hate these bastard offspring. And I used to as well… until I learned to stop hating and love crypto.

I was biased against them because I was sick of hearing about idiots making millions who don’t actually know how to trade.

But I’m sure you couldn’t possibly understand ­čśë

Systems for crypto’s have some unique challenges.

In no particular order

The exchanges all have different data There isn’t enough data for a statistically significant backtest Some of the exchanges are crooked as a 3 dollar bill The [...]
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March 7, 2018

No Respect

Scott Phillips here, taking over from Mole so he can pretend to step away from his computer for a few days (he won’t but it’s a nice thought)

Today I’d like to introduce you to the Rodney Dangerfield of market types.

Let’s look at the Sideways High Volatility Market and explore why it’s a FANTASTIC choice for building high expectancy trading systems. This market type gets no love, but I find building systems to outperform in sideways high volatility very easy.

Why? Because of recency bias. We are always viewing everything in context with what came before. Market is in uptrend and changes… we just naturally assume that a [...]

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Cognitive Bias Carousel
  • Herding BiasHerding Bias
    Something very interesting happened during our trip back to Valencia last Sunday. After checking our luggage and passing through the airport’s security┬áprocedures we had a … more
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Fooled By Randomness
Ten Protocols For Surviving Extreme Volatility
Quantutorial – Standard Deviation
Quantutorial – Garbage In Garbage Out