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Back To School Sale

by The MoleSeptember 5, 2019

Over the past month not a single day has passed without me receiving an email from a reader who missed out on snatching up one of my masterclasses this summer and insisting on being grandfathered in. In case you wonder: Yes alright, I did relent a few times, in particular if it was a long term sub who just had returned from vacation.

Obviously it did occur to me that scheduling a big promotion during the vacation season may not have been the most opportune of times. What can I say, a marketing genius I am obviously not. Anyway, as I am getting tired of dealing with you stragglers I decided to open up the original promotion one more time until Friday night.

Which means for the next two days you’ll be able to buy one of my exquisite masterclasses here at Evil Speculator – and for a huge discount!

  • My Price Action Masterclass– a comprehensive tutorial on reading and understanding price action without the use of superfluous indicators and having to throw darts at your charts.
    Free introduction class here.
    $97 instead of the regular RPQ price of $297.
  • My System Building Masterclass– a massive tutorial on building non-fragile trading systems from the bottom up that not only stand the test of time but are designed to satisfy your particular needs and requirements.
    Free introduction class here.
    $147 instead of the regular RPQ price of $497.

Do the math! You are getting both classes for less than 1/3rd of the official price!

Look, I consider these classes the pinnacle of my work and if you like my posts on the blog you will love the depth of knowledge and first hand experience either course has to offer. Just the tip of the iceberg of what you will learn:

  • How to fix your failed entries on microgaps in minutes.
  • How to spot exit opportunities like a Navy Seal sniper ready to fire at the EXACT right time.
  • Quickly fix your counter trend exits and know how to spot traps in thin markets.
  • How to never have any doubt whether or not you are in a trend.
  • Simple steps you can implement to quickly spot bull tops.
  • Knowing when to GTFO of a profitable trade.
  • And much more….

So don’t waste any time and buy either series right now while they are available at a highly discounted price. Because this offer ends this Friday, after which it will not be available again here on Evil Speculator.


After this there WILL BE NO EXCEPTIONS. If you email me on Saturday and ask me to sneak you in… no dice. I don’t care if you’re the pope or the Dalai Lama – buy your course(s) now or do it later at RPQ for triple the price.


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at the usual social media waterholes.
Enjoyed this post? Consider a small donation to keep those evil deeds coming!

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  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    okay, the baby has escaped the pen.
    something I was known for as a child.
    😉
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/8dd963785cec7f894849f32c91343b634f775080fcd7b1b99ba3ef710f92b577.png

  • http://www.quemango.com Herb InCebu

    SAGE ss working well.

  • BobbyLow

    Just picked up another 19 Points on the long side this morning because of more “Irrational Exuberence” based on China talks scheduled a month from now? I’m taking the rest of the day off. LOL

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    “Take what you can….GIVE NOTHING BACK.”

    https://media1.popsugar-assets.com/files/thumbor/Q7-VNqAO9Qrh6ZqSdlCdvLKPT1o/fit-in/2048xorig/filters:format_auto-!!-:strip_icc-!!-/2018/08/21/607/n/24155406/tmp_DCkc8f_7b150b25a047925f_MCDPIOF_EC028.jpg

  • BobbyLow

    Amen Brotha G. 🙂

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    SPX,
    rats have ran to the other side of the ship, IMHO.
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/c14461ebd3e2db0a61d56ad3c5b110729fc1776961b76d80a8a344caa2832d64.png

    but, never say never, if we get above VWAP, muwahahaha.

  • http://www.quemango.com Herb InCebu

    Employment numbers better be good tomorrow. And Powell is speaking too?

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    good luck. Does the Market preposition? or post-position?.. talking heads.
    ;-D

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • BobbyLow

    Just a quick observation about VWAP. When I first began trading futures, I put waaaay too much emphasis on VWAP. After awhile, I realized that because VWAP is a Volume Weighted Average, it moves slower than intra day regular simple moving averages and VWAP moves much slower than exponential moving averages. Also for Volume worshipers on most non-investment trades, price doesn’t give a shit whether it’s going up or down on low volume or high volume. I use simple moving averages myself and have VWAP on my chart. However, I use VWAP more as a tie breaker than anything else. For tiebreakers I’ll usually ask myself questions like is price over or under VWAP and is VWAP trending higher or lower. JMHO

  • http://www.quemango.com Herb InCebu

    This entire move has been talk driven. China on / China off.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Hey guys – how’s everyone?

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Well done!!!

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    trying to rally the troops. Nada.

  • BobbyLow

    This is what the market does Herb. We’ve gone through this kind of stuff many times over the years when there is indecision about major global events. Basically the markets are full of shit at all times. All we can do is react to price trends as they happen. I’ve also learned the hard way not to marry any opinion and to just go with the flow.

  • BobbyLow

    Thanks Mole. 🙂

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Still summer. They’ll come around.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    So what’s everyone’s take on taking a non-directional approach to trading via various option strategies?

    Point is this: institutional traders don’t really care that much about predicting direction, it’s all about expected move and how to get in front of volatility and to manage gamma and vega. Drawing lines on a chart can work but the odds of success are much much lower than perhaps leveraging time decay or to use strategies that benefit within a particular range.

    We are NOT talking about buying naked puts or calls here, which I suspect many of you guys probably have done in the past and probably lost your asses with.

    There are many topics I would like to cover but want to gauge the interest first. It would be hard work to put them together and unless I see that people are interested and willing to put in the time it would not be worth the effort.

    Please respond in the comment section with your thoughts.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Agreed.
    Labor Day is nice, but Summer isn’t over till

    Equinox 2019 will be at 12:50 AM on
    Monday, September 23

    for me.

  • BobbyLow

    Doing good Boss. I’m just waiting on the weather now. Hoping we escape relatively unscathed from this Hurricane. People on the coast of NC are going to get whacked. I’m further inland and concerned with possible rain more than anything else especially if the Eye heads more to the east and or decides to come and stay for awhile.

  • BKXtoZERO

    I like your lotto longs every time the MKT is at deaths door strategy

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Best of luck. I don’t have to tell you to stock up on food and water (and perhaps bullets), just in case.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I am seriously considering taking a few months off next summer. Concern of course is that I’d lose a ton of subs, but it may be worth the hassle.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Did you catch Tony’s post regarding VWAP? it is followed by most fund managers and many institutional traders. So it all depends on how you leverage it. Even on the Zero it has been proven to be very complementary.

  • BKXtoZERO

    L TVIX 15,7 day position, down on holdings now from 16.5-19.3, DRV as expected, no harm done

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Well, those actually can be played via options spreads as well. Assuming there will be a big move in either direction we can deploy strategies that perform well on outliers.

    I have a ton of stuff I could share here but I would need to bring everyone up to speed first.

  • BobbyLow

    Thanks. We’re pretty well prepared and have our generator all ready to go. One of the bad things about living in such a rural area is the amount of trees that knock down powerlines. I will be very surprised if we don’t lose power. We lost power and cable for over a week on both Matthew in 2016 and Florence last year. So we’ll see what happens.

    BTW, because I’m such a lousy shot, I own a 12 Guage Shotgun so I can hit whatever I aim at and I have plenty ammo for it. 🙂

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I should add one more thing though. Retail traders in general are chronically focused on getting in front of big outlier moves. They happen a lot more these days but there is still the issue with direction.

    The reason why I started to re-immerse myself into options is that I saw every single directional trading system fail over the past five years or so. Plus if you ask any quant he will tell you that volatility is a lot easier to predict than direction.

    Another aspect of this is that it is impossible to create high probability trades with regular directional strategies, e.g. in stocks, forex, or futures. I have never seen a trading system that has a 80%+ probability of profitability, i.e. you may risk 4 to make 1 but you win most of the time.

    Risking 4 or more to make 1 may sound scary until you get into proper campaign management which increases your odds to 90% or higher. Not something you can really do with regular systems, especially if they employ hard stops.

    Anyway, this is a HUGE topic and understanding the basic concepts would really benefit everyone here, no matter if they end up trading options or not.

  • BobbyLow

    Yes. And as a complement it is very valuable. I actually used it as a tiebreaker this morning.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    12 gauge is perfect within 20 feet or so. Make sure you have a few 1000 grain slugs handy.

    Generator: good choice and I agree that it’s a basic necessity if you live out in the boonies.

  • BKXtoZERO
  • BKXtoZERO

    smart.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    the only threat to generator in my experience is
    1)water in the gas
    2)clogged filter
    3)gummed up carb (jet)

    Give it a whirl. Don’t wait to find out!

  • BobbyLow

    Absolutely helps alot using a generator.

    My 12 gauge has a short 18 inch Barrel so it’s not too cumbersome to use inside my house if I absolutely had to use it because someone got in that was a threat. I could get an attachment for it to make it a pistol grip like a Mossberg but I like it enough without it.

  • BobbyLow

    Yep to all of the above. Ran it yesterday and run it once per month. I also use High Test 93 Octane Fuel in it. Regular gas has more ethanol in it that really messes with small engines.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    If you buy a diesel setup, I promise you, *promise* no more hurricanes for 10 years. LOL.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    no. no pistol grip. atrocious. Hollywood cool factor ONLY.

    I’d post Youtube videos, but this is not the place.

  • BobbyLow

    Agreed. Besides just the clack, clack of putting one in the chamber can be enough to ward off an unwanted intruder.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Cost analysis.
    just because you can put on a spread, etc, doesn’t mean you should.

    sure a butterfly, collar, whatever may be ‘safe’. But safe usually rewards zilch thru
    various options (pun intended) of theta burn, vega crush etc.

  • Darkthirty

    Minimum wage?

  • pepe

    Very interesting.

  • Darkthirty

    Loss of polarity… gotta tickle the fields with a car battery, better read up on it if you aren’t aware.

  • Darkthirty

    gut shots are good!

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    BAL and Cotton nickle and dimeing it’s way north
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Keep dream’in
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=BAL&p=D&yr=1&mn=4&dy=0&id=p19251958438

    under the envelope, and sinking like a lead weight in a cold creek.
    😉

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III
  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I’m sorry mate but I don’t think you know what you are talking about. A spread has a higher probability to make money than you buying some ETF.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Actually the statistics argue otherwise.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Best thing about using a shotgun in your house is that the risk of passing through walls and hitting your kid are almost null – assuming you have more than 1/4” plaster.

  • Darkthirty

    786…….

  • Sp00nman

    Best of luck BL, stay safe. You proly know this already but I run ethanol free gas in all my small engine equipment. Check out https://www.pure-gas.org/ to find the closest place that sells it. That way I don’t have to use fuel stabilizer or worry about gas messing up carbs/etc.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Sadly mistaken GG A nice base and COT Commercials large net long position.same as Natty Gas (What occurred with Natty Gas) Better get on board
    JULIE

  • BobbyLow

    Thanks Spoonman.

  • Sp00nman

    I would certainly be interested. I spent some time reading about different options strategies but things have been hectic lately and I didn’t have the time to really delve into things. It gets complicated quickly (compared to directional plays) because you have to factor in all the greeks to narrow down where the risk is hiding.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Sept 23, $33.33

    white candles on a raft, headed downstream without a paddle.
    =P

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/afbe7b5555e8935687239a01f08748009f9c5349f76d36334104bd7901e6c8d9.png

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    One of the largest tourist attractions GG at the Smithsonian is Eli’s Cotton Gin.The “South” and “Cotton” Shall Rise Again” Better get on board GG
    JULIE

  • Cyd

    Hilarious Julie LOL! See ya in a half for lunch
    Cyd

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Arizona has 5 C’s.
    Cotton, Copper, Cattle, Citrus, Climate.
    tell me all about it.
    =P

  • ridingwaves

    My ex sheriff cousin swears owning a hand gun for home defense is equivalent to opening the door for the perp and inviting him in. Most older folks never practice and have shaky hands to begin with…..

    Browning over and under is more sporty for me but a pump is all you need to scare 90% of criminals…

  • ridingwaves

    should have kept reading..

  • Cyd

    Phoenix is the fastest growing city in U.S.Better buy light colored COTTON shirts for the summer heat LOL
    Cyd

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    I’ll have the Philly, with Provolone

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    are you kidding me? next week we break into the overnight upper 70’s.
    I’m breaking out the warm drinks and Marsh-mellows!!
    Put my sandals in deep storage, wash the quilt.

  • BKXtoZERO

    NUGT getting killed. Anyone putting their face in front of that one?

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • ridingwaves

    just a hit job by the cartel….looks great if you played it from 20 and 25….
    hit the 50sma and bounced already….still the best ETF performer of the year..

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    quite the disconnect from copper. (dropping since April)

  • ridingwaves

    copper is old school, no ties to precious metals at all…..boring metal, better used by Live for album cover
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xsJ4O-nSveg

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    I agree. However, old Dr. Copper is tied to economic growth, no need to mine copper/silver/gold if everything’s dead. (figuratively speaking)

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Newmont for the curious

    https://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=NEM

  • pepe

    TLT is another crowded trade. Bought Sept 20 puts strike $145, targeting first $142 then $137.50.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG Go BAL GO Love it ! We are finishing up some tuna fish sandwiches and refreshing OJ See ya on Monday.Have tomorrow off Always follow the COT’s (Commercials) trading commodities
    JULIE

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Most of the tutorials you’ll find out there are complete crap and do not teach the basics in the proper way. The greeks are actually quite simple once you understand what drives them.

  • BobbyLow

    The rain has been steady but on the light side so far. However, the wind has picked up. I just had an oak tree split at its top and a big heavy limb shaped like a dagger was hanging high over my pump house. It took some time but my neighbor and I used a rope and lassoed enough of it to rock it back and forth bringing it down without occuring any damage.

    Regarding market price action, I can’t help but wonder with the China talks weeks away (if they happen at all) whether the market continues this rally to the sky until talks stall again or does it say only foolin tomorrow or next week and reverse right away. I guess the market will let us know soon enough.

  • VXXTrader

    Mole, I am very interested in this. The hardest part of finding edge in system development is determining direction. Also, I have been trading options on VXX for a few years with only sporadic success (not the last couple weeks). It improved some when I began shorting some options in addition to being long puts on VXX (calendars). The part of this I am skeptical about is risk control. I am uncomfortable with unlimited risk trades and can’t do some in the IRA anyway.

    Tony discussed “expected move” in one of his posts and I can see how it could be worked into a decent system approach without having to figure out which way she go. On the other hand, I’m one of those learning Python/Pandas and am looking to automate as much as I can eventually. Not sure how to do that with options.

    Recently you mentioned Tom Sosnoff in one of your comments and that he does know his stuff. I discounted his organization because I could never find published stats on the success of his trades; no expectancy, no drawdown to CAG, no SQN, not even % profitable. And trade management seemed lacking (which I have to say is Evil’s strength!!). I still look at his emails but never take any trades. He will put up something like a vertical spread and say it has a 63% chance of making 50% of its max profit before expiry. I know he uses a Monte Carlo method to figure that out so its legit. It follows that there would then be a 37% chance of something else. Do you think he is suggesting to take profit at the 50% of max? If so, one could set a stop at the same 50% of max profit and end up with roughly a .25 expectancy and an SQN slightly north of 10x of that (Stdev should be slightly below 1 due to trades that don’t hit target or stop).

    Also, you owe us that Ninja ChartToCSV indicator; do not forget. (you really should add some links to resources to the System Building landing page – I expect a link to Red-Pill eventually but not holding my breath).

  • BKXtoZERO

    Out of most of my day tvix flat but building position again.

  • Sp00nman

    For sure regarding most tutorials not being very good. I’ve read some of your previous explanations on the greeks which were very good. Delta = change in price, or first derivative of price. Gamma = derivative of delta, or 2nd der of price, theta = time, Vega= volatility premium.

    Of course coming up with strategies and figuring out ideally when to enter/exit/risk management are quite important. The types of options spreads are daunting. Calendar spreads, vertical spreads, combinations of them, etc. There’s definitely a fine line between picking up nickles in front of a steam roller and limiting your risk and collecting a premium.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    !ITTMSPX,
    tweak the 10ema to 8ema, for a little risker, but ahead of the jump indicator.
    or just crank the MACD.

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%21ITTMSPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=4&dy=0&id=p75328833336

  • http://www.quemango.com Herb InCebu

    That would be great and a bit unique. I had a broker once at MFG who did some incredible spreads with options and future contacts, but when I went to learn about it I found mostly bullshit or way over the top propeller-head content.

  • http://www.linkedin.com/in/sharondsessions/ Sharon

    Hi I would be very interested in anything that you would teach. Enjoying my video’s very much. Anything math based sounds good. Sharon

  • Kishore Kumar

    Agreed! Played spreads once and was bored to tears. Buying naked options is potentially most lucrative though risky. Minimize risk by proper timing. If can’t time, no reason to be trading short-term and gamble time and money. Odds must be favorable. Moreover, need to minimize time spent to only the 1st hour and the last hour, and have a life. Spreads are good only if satisfied with small gains with less risk and don’t have the time or inclination to be jerked around!

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Volatility (Vega) = Price – it’s exactly the same. If you calculate the price of an option or a spread (debit or credit) you are immediately able to calculate its odds of earning you 1c or more.

    It’s a bit like learning calculus – the way it’s taught is extremely important. The way I learned it was from people who traded options on the trading floor before computers take over the pits. They could look at an option chain and tell you almost exactly how much an option would be worth one week or one month from now.

    Without a Black/Scholes calculator – there simply wasn’t any time. I used to fiddle around with that stuff back when and those old guys kept telling me ‘hey kid – turn off your computer and simply look at the option chain – it’s all there!!’

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    “The hardest part of finding edge in system development is determining direction.”

    At the same time it’s the first thing people attempt to do and even worse – are taught to do. Per expected move: Yes, it is extremely important especially given today’s efficiency in the markets. Since 2012 +/- which coincides with the proliferation of weekly options markets have become extremely efficient.

    I know a number of professional option traders who repeatedly pin weekly moves via butterflies and are making consistent bank. If you run the stats especially on the indices you will see that expected move is being observed nearly 80% of the time!

    Unfortunately it seems that there is very little pertinent interest here at Evil Speculator and it may be better to focus on teaching option related concepts once Tony and I launch Red Pill Quants.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    @vxxtrader:disqus Please see my commentary below.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Don’t worry about the China talks, it’s simply an excuse for repeatedly pumping volatility. The pros love to cycle IV as it created opportunities to lure retail traders into bad trades.

  • http://www.linkedin.com/in/sharondsessions/ Sharon

    I would love to learn more about option plays YES

  • pepe

    TLT inside day. Sitting tight.

  • Mark Shinnick
  • Darkthirty
  • Mark Shinnick

    “Worse than dead” Negative Rates.

  • Darkthirty

    Fed going to speak today?

  • Mark Shinnick
  • mSquare

    and a little longer, say a few more decades

  • mSquare

    GLD rolling over / made a top at least in the near term? More likely going down to test the gap at $139-$140s? Opinions?

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GLD&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p84271446175

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Consolidation phase – wait for a proper long signal on a shorter interval.

  • BobbyLow

    Came out of Hurricane Dorian relatively good with only some tree damage. No floods this time and I’m grateful for that. People on the coast got hit pretty bad and a lot of them are still without power. Lost my internet last night and didn’t get it back until late this morning so that kept me away from trading today and that’s fine. Cash is still a position.

    Will be back at em Monday. BTW, I’ve been trying something different with the Micro /MES Futures lately and that’s day trading my 15 Minute out of IB and running swings on my 3 Hour out of TOS. The other day I was long and short at the same time for awhile and that was kind of fun.

    Have a great weekend everyone. 🙂

  • Ronebadger

    We have hurricane rain bands on Long Island right now…no problem though…we can take more…almost all sand here for 100s of feet down…drains well.

  • Ronebadger
  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III
  • Darkthirty
  • Darkthirty

    confirmation If it dies in the center of the channel

  • Darkthirty

    Ghost town if “immigrants” get the boot

  • Darkthirty

    ouzo drives them batshit…

  • Mark Shinnick
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    I don’t want to be Captain Obvious,
    but FAGIX? may be the perfect hedge for TVIX.
    😉

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/52a26e9f0347bf642a399ef3041c625a5577671cb8f103faaa98d1ed6649ea6f.png
    Have a good weekend.

  • BKXtoZERO

    I guess it pays to be LGBTQ these days in every way

  • Ronebadger
  • Ivan Hrusovsky
  • BKXtoZERO

    Why didn’t you tell me that it was going here!

  • BKXtoZERO

    nice.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Ghosts and Goblins?

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG No follow thru on Friday following Thursday’s move. We have not gone long our 401K’s
    JULIE

  • BKXtoZERO

    Halloween is coming

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    totally understood.
    but you should consult your newly elected President.
    😉
    I’m just the court jester.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/a6e58c544b2210f8922e821adb119c6d4759539ddad840b05fc7351563f1a1f0.jpg
    FOMO is real, just believe

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com gold_gerb

    ps. Don’t be such a Montana Bear.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=57q6TUMTS_M
    😉