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Back On Track
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Back On Track

by The MoleOctober 3, 2018

I mentioned in the comment section yesterday that 2018 will most likely end up as one of my top three most exhausting trading years. 2008 was rough for pretty much anyone, 2010 was difficult but we made it through just fine and in the green. 2018 on the other hand, at least up to date, has been just outright annoying. And the main culprit squarely points at realized volatility in both the short term and medium term.

Fortunately I grabbed a pretty early entry on the E-Mini yesterday which allowed my ISL to remain a good distance away from yesterday’s second spike low. Price has now advanced to 1R MFE which allows me to raise my stop to break/even. We are back on track!

Talking about annoying – why in the world am I trading bonds in the first place? I should seek help.

Crude on the other hand is making us proud. Did any of you subs grab that entry right after the roll over? I really hope so as it’s been nothing but manna from heaven since. I’m up to 4R and my trail now sits at 3.7R.

Our Dollar campaign also continues to plug along and in the right direction! I actually think this one has more meat in it, let’s give it time.Β Trail here goes to 2R now and our MFE was almost at 3R.

My general sentiment regarding my stop out on the USD/JPY can’t be repeated here as this is a family friendly trading lair. Well, at least it was at 1.5R, so we’re out in the green. But I have an inkling what comes next will greatly thwart the current advance, and thus I’m rather miffed about this overnight stop run. On the other hand given most the above I should truly count my blessings.

Shameless Plug

By the way, if you missed these or other recent entries or perhaps even found yourself on the losing end, then head over to the sign up page to once and for all remedy this unfortunate situation. Evil Speculator Gold goes for less than the cost of a single E-Mini handle and if you enjoy trading it you may as well sign up for the Zero which includes Gold plus a continuous feed of our mostpopular market participation oscillator.

Now I completely disagree with this advance in the gold futures based on what I’m seeing over in the Yen (which continues to drop). Which is why I’m grabbing a short position here with a stop> 1216.

Alright, more goodies below the fold for my intrepid subs:

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About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at the usual social media waterholes.
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  • HD

    HD Mod β€’ 19 hours ago
    SPX stuck at 2929. Globex gap to the rescue?

    They can’t do it in the cash session, that’s for sure….

  • HD
  • http://www.captainboom.com/ captainboom

    Good stuff. Just you and me today? Kind of quiet.

  • Yoda

    Just sold a long UNG trade that I had for a while and in anticipation of the rug being pulled under longs tomorrow.

  • Yoda
  • ridingwaves

    could go either way, banking some cash last week in BOIL….good reminder, I think I’ll take half off, but I would say the trend is now bullish…..with sudden bear raids

  • ridingwaves

    the only issue is the previous 2 didn’t have trillions in hot money sloshing around….

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    ya miss me.
    *admit it*.
    πŸ˜‰

  • Yoda
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    I don’t trust nutty.
    Period.

  • ridingwaves

    makes sense to put a hurt on new bulls….closed the gap also..
    but they have been hammering bulls for so long on gap downs, it might play out differently..who knows with that stuff…

  • http://www.captainboom.com/ captainboom

    Gerb who?

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • ridingwaves

    building head and shoulder and that gap down at 85 looks juicy with touch of lower bb at same time…

  • Yoda
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • http://www.captainboom.com/ captainboom

    Yes it is. I use them often in indoor shows. Looks like a silver or gold fountain in most cases.

  • BKXtoZERO

    Plying my craft today, L TVIX from 25.20

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    and people thought I was a rodent all this time.
    Muwahaha.

  • BKXtoZERO

    Short term ES chart looks like HDs longer term running on empty chart below: https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/e5102861148620adbd03faa2bdc44ae2b1579460980f9ba27bf588c04c733e6d.jpg

  • BKXtoZERO

    You don’t need luck when you have skill AND good looks….

  • BKXtoZERO

    Thanks HD!

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    and don’t forget scoring four touchdowns in a single game while playing for the city championship game.
    πŸ˜‰

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    SPX I am short against Monday’s high …. Stop removed still short. As William O Neil states “Stalling”
    JULIE

  • BKXtoZERO

    Ya! That was FOUR in ONE GAME, not in a year

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    No way is Julie going to be run off.Just like last January
    JULIE

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    RW I like MNKD with a bullish close above 1.82
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    I detect a hint of stubbornness?
    if you have a plan, then no problemo.

    it looked iffy yesterday, but today?
    don’t fight the trend

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p20902153827

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG Quite often you must give a short time to work. Not being stubborn. I nailed last January and was slightly underwater before the Dumpus. You must hang in there GG when overbought monthly — weekly — daily with negative divergences and recent distribution. Banking Index showing weakness along with small caps.etc ….
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Guys $NYMOT is below 0 —- $NYSI is below it’s 10 sma Market breath is very weak. I repeat do not run scared if short. The recent topping tails point to distribution. Also reference HD’s chart below pointing out 52 week highs with less than 50% of stocks above their 200 sma. I am not even down 1% in short.No way am I going to be run off ! Patience !
    JULIE

  • Mark Shinnick

    This snapback would sure be a nice setup for more downside. Long small tna, but stop and reverse very close at hand.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    speaking of…how’s RUT doing?

    not bad, not bad. full daily retrace. vacuous SOB. πŸ˜‰
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24RUT&p=D&yr=2&mn=6&dy=0&id=p27394395520

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Guys is USO setting up to short or What. RSI at 70 ; top of Raff regression and MACD https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/bfdd92032ef8aeb14206dd0ad0f115b5c4b18fee5ead2f01dbf076823191ba03.png at a level where previous pullbacks have occurred JULIE

  • Mark Shinnick

    Vacuous environment, to be sure.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    RUT below a declining 55 ema with MACD in negative territory Dead Cat bounce
    JULIE

  • Edgy

    ES, looking for retest of all-time-high from two Friday’s ago. Then I’d like to think about sell/short. Hoping there’s not too much more chop before then.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    SPY volume today not confirming today’s move “Hedgies” GVIP below a declining Ichi Cloud conversion line (8) Julie is loving it !
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    The word for the Day and Week “PATIENCE”
    JULIE

  • bankwalker

    For some odd reason, the current stock market reminds me of this song:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SmPMMitJDYg

  • ridingwaves

    watch out for the banks now….they like the rates up here, lets see if seasonality correlation plays out

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ErvgV4P6Fzc

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    RW September is the biggest month of the year for trucking and maritime. (Christmas) I checked with ILWU Local 8 (Portland) Longshoreman. Longshore hours worked for September were average in Portland and West Coast Ports
    JULIE

  • Mark Shinnick

    Corollary; constant vigilance and willingness to fight back.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Well said Mark
    JULIE

  • bankwalker

    Indecision is the key to flexibility …

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    BW Always remember …. If a girl likes a boy and the boy has not asked her out yet ……She has patience ! The trap is being set ! LOL!
    JULIE

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho
  • ridingwaves

    concentrate on XLF for now, banks may take market lead, helps all indexes..

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    SLV Yes ! Played it almost perfectly. Now the pullback to reload
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    I am watching the Banks too as everyone knows I trade the Big Dog BAC which perfectly mirrors the Banking Index. BAC very strong resistance 30.27
    JULIE

  • ridingwaves
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG INTC As discussed yesterday Possible bullish close above resistance and it’s 89 ema per previous chart. A resistance matching the 50% retracement approx 51. The close will be very important today Nice trade GG JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/e0892da94b2bdd4e1e7d2c7fd8f9c383d7f649c67a2df1cdbf4128b9f62f7530.png

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Thanks RW
    JULIE

  • ridingwaves

    the best weekend to come to San Francisco
    free music on multiple stages in GG park….perfect..
    http://www.hardlystrictlybluegrass.com/2018/

    Fleet week at same time, the blue angels even scorch over the park for shits and giggles….keep those high bluegrass fans happy…
    https://fleetweeksf.org/

    so if your wife, loved one, mistress, husband etc. wants to visit, time it around this. She can shop and you can do lots of other stuff…..you might not need any pot, use the wind(feel the force) for best second hand high

  • Mark Shinnick

    Volume picking up drv, and RE staples like Simon on the defensive.

  • bankwalker

    Your patience looks genius … at least for right now …

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    RW Did You Say SHOP ? Well Yeah !
    JULIE

  • Mark Shinnick

    SH…great heads-up, thanks.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Back from lunch!
    two days without sun over, I’d never make it in Seattle.
    πŸ˜‰

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    did he say GG?
    πŸ˜‰

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    all bets are OFF.
    technically yeah, I made my plan.

    later did I find out Kramer OPENED HIS MOUTH and said ‘buy’.
    dam you Schrodinger.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Sell into it GG ? ?
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    not in the options world sweetie.

    I must confess, I confuse the two!

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Strange, I thought of it more like..
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mrJ93WJRiaA

  • Darkthirty

    TURN THOSE MACHINES BACK ON !!!!

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    BW Today a close below it’s open with a topping tail very possible. That would not be bullish esp with a gap up being sold into which has been common recently Not bullish at all BW
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Love your High Yield Charts GG
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Getting ready to short oil
    JULIE

  • Darkthirty

    SF fleet enema week? just for shits and giggles? Puns intended, I assume……………….

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    All the ladies luv my high yield.

  • Wave_surfer

    35 years of falling interest rates and it looks like that trend may be over.
    If we have 10 or 20 years of rising interest rates, that might lead to some ‘effects’
    Since it is such a long trend, it has been inside the thick purple crayon for a few years, If you know what I mean.

  • ridingwaves

    darkthirty, no mai tai’s until 4PM….come on….don’t be debbie darkthirty downer….

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36
  • Mark Shinnick

    We are in for some real trouble not experienced for generations and about which most have zero experience base to begin to comprehend.

  • ridingwaves

    wait until the Chinese market margin calls work in combination of your note above, then you get to see some Japanese like RE sales happening…

  • bankwalker

    now that’s funny right there … I don’t care WHO ya are …

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    why did the Blonde get hit crossing the street?…..

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Darkthirty

    It’d take a lot of mai tais to mistake me for Debbie darkthirty………….

  • ridingwaves

    that big gap at 19.5 will fill…

  • ridingwaves

    at this mai tai bar not so, just a couple, they pour one of the best….
    https://www.royalkona.com/dining.aspx

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    no problemo with $15 min wage.

    F’u Bezo’s. (Monopolist scum)

  • bankwalker

    not in SF

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • ridingwaves

    spoken like a true tourist…

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Julie, I’m just teasing with ya.

    you’ll catch it either way, I’m sure of it.
    [USO] Daily envelope
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=USO&p=D&yr=1&mn=1&dy=0&id=p32623082103

  • Darkthirty

    Never had one……….If ya gotta mix it with sugar, don’t drink it

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    RW USO must get above very strong resistance at 16 . 16 is also Raff Regression and top of a uptrend line on weekly A very tall order. If a reversal candle appears at present level Julie gonna short JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/1efefa6e11a1f715dc633300525eb47b260b8e42bb828411bd972b191a325eb0.png

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG I know …. I think people tune in to watch our back and forth barbs. GG Would not want to have it any other way ! Love it GG !
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    crap, I never thought of that.

    how can we monetize this?
    he he

  • ridingwaves

    pineapple juice and rum….thank you for saving me some…

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG I am still laughing over the Cougar Guide Book ! Husband too ! Hilarious GG !
    JULIE

  • Mark Shinnick

    Returned to shorting and tvix.

  • Darkthirty

    Beam, out of the freezer, neat

  • bankwalker
  • Mark Shinnick
  • bankwalker

    never a tourist … but lived in Santa Cruz for a while and visited frequently …

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG …LOL !
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    I’ll probably get lose my job for this..

    http://zeelifestylecebu.com/the-modern-girls-guide-to-cats/

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    BW A great show. She said that Jackie Gleason was great as a man and human being.Gleason never forgot where he came from and he and Paul Newman were two of the greatest Hollywood philanthropists to live
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    time check.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    LOL! Hilarious GG Great sense of humor. My husband too ! He is always leaving me hilarious notes and stories.Your wife and family are fortunate as I am
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    I want to be a philanthropist…

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    all the ladies LUV philanthropy.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    yeah about that….

    I’m unemployed and I live with my parents
    πŸ˜‰

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG And a sense of humor. You are just like my husband.i give it right back to him. He teases me and I tease him back. Sometimes it’s all evening. Love it GG 1
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Hmmm ! Going to add a little to SPX short (SH)
    JULIE

  • Mark Shinnick

    What if this suddenly becomes a 5th?

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    XLE, shoulda coulda.
    shaken out a few days ago. next thousand trades
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/22da689a4bb5fc8c45c341044be3ef48d715b12f0d52fbc2c8f906f0466d46bc.png

  • ridingwaves

    small window of hope with tomorrows longer term auctions, after that the 5th will be hanging out for sure…

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Mark IMO It is a 5th. 5 of 5 of 5
    JULIE

  • BKXtoZERO

    5th what? (he he he)

  • BKXtoZERO

    then turd of a turd of a turd? he he he he

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Back to work Lots of fun today ! Everyone Have A Great Rest Of Day !
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG Just checked the close INTC Could be a short tomorrow. The advance from mid September is a corrective three waves
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    INTC A shooting star at resistance and 89 ema. Also INTC has retraced the minimum required 38.2% Tomorrow could be juicy JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/2936c624e40213aba38ead6df63daa351089a2743676e2567d8f9870d5512acc.png

  • Yoda
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • BKXtoZERO

    My favorite part of Moles post: ” 2018 on the other hand, at least up to date, has been just outright annoying. And the main culprit squarely points at realized volatility in both the short term and medium term.” he he he

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Hi BK Watching SLV very carefully. Like you I have reservations. ACCUM / DIST OBV and CMF are not corroborating the recent move. The indicators are more favorable for GLD JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/ccf6984df35e222ac99ae1771ebd03f3bb3db122b1c6eeb4d17b5cc0cf92bd0d.png

  • BKXtoZERO

    In the past, the FED would jawbone and metals would catch a cold…. now they are actually raising rates so I am just not fighting that as a concept. In my mind assets need to drop first. Some air needs to come out of housing and stocks, and THEN…. in my mind they pull out the stops again and metals would rip but maybe from 900-1000$ gold etc. That has just been my plan (view) whatever to stick with.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    watching too.
    no worries.

    hitting the ceiling currently.
    three months down, imagine three months UP.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/ae19fa7da75ecef62b3d97f012306927c5d701a47e7ac0c921671a08f51bad84.png

  • Mark Shinnick

    How ’bout that high yield?

  • Yoda
  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Not a good start!

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Hey guys – I’m finishing a project today which I’m about to complete. So I’ll be around in the afternoon but just didn’t have time for a post today. I trust everyone is doing well?

  • HD

    2906 and -17 on deck

  • ridingwaves

    window open….

  • ridingwaves

    big auction drain today….

  • Mark Shinnick

    Yoda…your post disappeared! It was interesting because I got a SH buy today and real estate remains on defensive and HY too.

  • HD

    record bear ridiculing past 5 weeks. Not just here, twitter too. I even saw a trader take delivery on a Performante “on the backs of bears” 2906 still flexing.

    ST, could not quantify the low. That served well. SPX showing flat into 2903. Below and we have a larger correction. Still 4th as we continue to wrap up the bull market.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/4c309e832df1ed19adfb498b12b2676d680f2fa3e62bcc07482798df5324d829.png

  • Yoda

    better stay away from falling daggers. Hope BKXtoZERO caught some TVIX whilst they were cheap.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    can’t complain. just waiting for the tide to come in.

    http://engineeringrevision.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/07/iStock_000009031182XSmall.jpg
    Vanity, vanity!

  • Yoda

    ‘Tis the season for crashes…before the end of year rally

  • ridingwaves

    record bear ridiculing? do you have some stats on old record % HD…..
    if they can’t handle the heat get out of the market….
    more ridiculing coming too….

  • Mark Shinnick

    Damm interesting with a bunch of mathematical thresholds we collectively, but individually come up with corolating.

  • Yoda
  • HD

    ha, I prefer the heat. Much better to have some emotions showing.

    16 days now, every single rally has been sold. Just my POV

    sentiment stats are proprietary. πŸ™‚

  • Ronebadger

    JSTFR … whenever that comes…

  • Yoda

    Nuttygas bulls got whacked today

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    told ya.
    never. trust.

    everrrrrr.

  • Yoda
  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho
  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    HAHa..even a broken (analogue) clock is right twice a day

  • Yoda

    Saw some comments yesterday on the blogosphere saying that nuttygas bears were dead… LOL

  • Yoda

    Under present market conditions, I’d definitively agree.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Bullish Percent Composite,

    just look at that Carne’ Asada

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24BPCOMPQ&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p06613670327

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    +1 for “Rainbow Chart of the Year”

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • bankwalker

    Julie must be a happy camper today.

  • Yoda
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    where’s my gold breakout, old man!?
    πŸ˜‰

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Yoda

    The day is not over yet. Patience you must have my furry Padawan.

  • Darkthirty

    it’s all dark…………..

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Yew BW So far. GVIP “Hedgies” are a must to know what they are doing Over 10,000 hedge funds
    JULIE

  • HD

    nice call Julie!

  • bankwalker

    and how exactly do you know that?

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    BW I read that in the WSJ. Also GG’s chart on High Yield. Later today I will post another important leading indicator
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    The Smartest Blonde in Montana.

    has a ring to it, don’t’ya think?

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • BKXtoZERO

    Godot is HERE!!! I had faith….. Not like Linus in the Pumpkin patch…. much better. TVIX rocking!
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/29c164887e75b2f520eaf8aefba4eb16d9aa6d5ce61a12f0e88e78190ce1586f.jpg

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    trade your plan, and remember.
    your Wins have to make up for all of your future losses.
    πŸ˜‰

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG I always listen to everybody on this blog some great traders here GG. I learn every day
    JULIE

  • bankwalker

    long AAPL 229.85

  • Darkthirty

    Textbook flat at this point

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG INTC possible short per post and chart 19 hrs. ago
    JULIE

  • bankwalker

    that was quick

  • BKXtoZERO

    scalped out of half at 27.63, see if we bounce at 2904 ES

  • Darkthirty

    That’s what she said……….and it wasn’t a compliment

  • HD

    agree

  • Mark Shinnick

    Still, he’s certainly no dummy.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Yoda BK and Everyone SLV could be consolidating for another move higher. A bearish close below the 5 ema will be key IMO If so going to watch target 13.60 the 21 ema and 13.50 approx lower uptrend https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/4df0f5bae60154eba856b0afacd378108b5dff210d733f876920fadb88bc6d63.png line. Now a bullish close above resistance and 55 ema and re enter long That is my plan or plans JULIE

  • BKXtoZERO

    sold the rest 27.9, now we better bounce. RSI looks to be diverging on ES

  • HD

    The EW, has been a good year buyers and sellers following the waves. Clear trends since April low. 3 primary, 2 corrective (5 waves) Alternation showing now. Easy part of wave is done. They won’t make it easy going forward. Time spent in correction interesting IMO.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/0654202da9bd195d197a74da71362a387e3d291dbb6fe4ba74b181d32dc67982.png

  • bankwalker

    She’ll get over it …

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    #$%@#%

  • Darkthirty

    Should be used to it

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    HD Great chart yesterday on 52 week highs and stocks less than 50% below 200 sma
    JULIE

  • Darkthirty

    Got an EDT there?

  • BKXtoZERO

    back in half 28.1 with tight stop

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    USO Yeah the possible pullback per charts (weekly and daily) posted previously Guys 15.75 is a support Gonna short oil too
    JULIE

  • HD

    Could be. I have 1 more rally yet but think it’s best to go support resist levels now.

  • BKXtoZERO

    Out at 28,48. This is fun when things are moving…..

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Guys The Raff Regression is awesome. GG and my husband taught me that chart. USO RSI at 70 and MACD was at a location where previous pullbacks have occurred 16 weekly chart was a very important resistance matching the Raff Regression https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/e1b4785d2357844c19d70a772dbefcf49e97ea893ab005de17604155ea5855cb.png JULIE

  • HD

    2919-2902 2908-2891 17/17 (34)

  • BKXtoZERO

    gimme a HWB!!! (on rye)

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    LOL – just by looking at the comment count I knew that the E-Mini was breaking down…

    https://i.ytimg.com/vi/GQFJw0Dtaew/hqdefault.jpg

  • HD

    Sweet 10 HanDle Bounce!
    Nice trades BK! A little volatiltity always helps our systems.
    Walking away. GL

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    NYSE TICK closed 98.33% below its zero mark. HIGH probability of a Down Trend Day!
    Sample size: 2694 1-Tick bars.

  • Darkthirty

    top of the channel ………..

  • HD
  • Darkthirty

    Retrace from 2914 to 2924 was a 50%

  • HD

    good eyes!

  • Darkthirty

    If a 4th, 382 target is 2886.75

  • ridingwaves

    it will be cheaper to buy soon…
    this move was so easy to see coming a caveman like me could see it a mile away…..

  • HD

    excellent! Those were our targets last week, before that curve ball they threw, I am flat and happy. VIX 15.

  • ridingwaves

    its national taco day….what would you expect….

  • Mark Shinnick

    Well, as yet no real bounce at various support levels here….just hanging, often suggestive of continuation.

  • BKXtoZERO

    They only come when you leaaast expect it. Spanish Inq

  • Mark Shinnick

    Yeah…”they” are keenly attuned to their victim’s vulnerability.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Guys This pullback could be deeper than most expect. There were a lot of red flags and the canaries in the coal mine were chirping louder every day. I would not rush to go long you might get badly scorched
    JULIE

  • Mark Shinnick

    Is your sh a position type trade?

  • Yoda

    yeah stay away from any risk on trades

  • Yoda

    We haven’t seen a big phat sell-off like this one in a while….

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Hi Mark Yes

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    You got it Yoda !
    JULIE

  • Darkthirty

    file:///C:/Users/Front%2002/Pictures/pickin%20up%20pennies.jpg You know how us scalpers play…

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    boo-yah.
    too bad I’m hiding in the bathroom.
    πŸ˜‰

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPX&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p27072146630

  • Mark Shinnick

    Yeah, she said she’s assumed the position.

  • Darkthirty

    Gonna be a hell of a ramp when PPT kicks it

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    SPX possible bounce at 55 ema matching an important support level and lower Keltner channel. Now a bounce there would IMO be to a lower high. Looking for SPX to test the lower channel trend line matching an important support level and the 144 ema (shown 2nd chart) Now SPX could go down to it’s 89 ema then bounce to a lower high Showing 2 charts https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/6d7001be33a18c2f49a755b6c3d99b0f0793fed0b997a28936de9f92e519dbda.png https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/ccb1145376682051f6938474a42ee9e2c05ac240dfe5dcaa0e8f609ccd04d3d8.png JULIE

  • bankwalker

    Wow! What a day you’re having Julie.

  • Darkthirty

    5 pretty waves, dead in the middle of the channel,,,,,hmmm

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Guys SPX A 3rd chart Raff Regression lower trend https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/c1763a351d96f2a0f475d15a0af7dad792a444e030b771ef97f759f2da7acdf5.png line matches the 89 ema Charts do not lie Wall Street does ! JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    the Equal Weight, identified the cliff.
    just needed a little….{wait for it}….Patience.

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPXEW&p=D&yr=0&mn=4&dy=0&id=p56496288768

  • BKXtoZERO

    I always start off giving the bulls way too much credit being too quick to take vix off. TVIX sure rips once moving.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Guys a 4th chart corroboration. The 55 ema matches the blue dotted line and again the lower trend line matches the 89 ema. Any bounce off the 55 or 89 ema I expect it to be to a lower high. Target again the 144 ema matching the support in chart below of lower blue channel JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/4070561c22bb9d662fce8e33104ba138efcb89b9eda9321f5e0802ebe4a0b086.png

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Good chart and call GG You had it too Bro !
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    yeah.
    ZeroHedge never saw that coming.
    πŸ˜‰

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    USO remember guys USO 15.75 support Love It ! Yeah ! You can see the importance of the 55 – 89 and 144 ema’s Love it Guys ! JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/0fd3a8ce8957093fc6dd45c4fde72c5050d9775f5bf2c5c2b29eadeb67e2e449.png

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Oil and SPX Parabolic Bull Poop !
    JULIE

  • ridingwaves

    lol, you make me laugh sometimes…2850 is still in play.maybe overshoot….tvix is still in play, could see spike to 38 at bull poop exhaustion…

    ridingwaves Mark Shinnick 2 days ago
    could be a June like down move to 2850, can’t discount that….a move that would confuse dow theory bulls….
    ridingwaves 2 days ago
    looks at trusty auction calendar…..hmmmm….this would seem to be a good place for draw down Thursday…30 days to push towards mid terms…..

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    $BKX The all important Banking Index failing exactly at the 55 ema today ! Love it Guys ! JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/da2b4d01c7f9534c4dd1a9a2fdda8e5f93124ad31718d74fbe35e14f0c10e5f8.png

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    RW As you stated previously XLF and myself the Banks in general. No new highs without the Banks RW I make myself laugh too RW ! I am having fun RW Love it !
    JULIE

  • http://www.captainboom.com/ captainboom

    I heard it’s also National Vodka Day. Do I hear vodka tacos?

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    off to lunch.
    what a day. πŸ™

  • BKXtoZERO

    To ZERO.

  • HD

    will shorts cover or close on the lows? What say you?

  • bankwalker

    close on the lows …

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Sub Zero BK Bankruptcy ! LOL !
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    HD I don’t think the Bears gonna be run off this time. Too many red flags and them canaries chirping louder and louder each passing day The bearish rising wedge is playing out HD.
    JULIE

  • HD

    Did you guys see Dark thirty price? screamer

  • ridingwaves

    the banks are doing fine today…
    its many other sectors…

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    SPX The negative divergences in both PMO and MACD PMO topped end of https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/6dc63459d729113248958bff32db7144bb05ba4092ca58bf2c9f6ccc3236c690.png August and below it’s signal line. Also notice now the deceleration of the PMO . Yup Guys the Bears turn at the feeding trough Love it Guys ! JULIE

  • Darkthirty

    there they are

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    RW $BKX dead cat bounce into the 55 ema with the 5 – 21 and 55 ema’s in a bearish alignment. Not good at all RW
    JULIE

  • HD

    I’m not bitter. πŸ™‚ I got paid! but since every single person saw this sequence as “basically it can go up or down?” I hope you get it now.

    Next sequence on deck. Back in a few days. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/a3a6ad36e3655590b8c045306a830803b13f91e8144db2fd89d774f39163ad61.png

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Also the slow Stochs not being able to go to 80 shows weakness
    JULIE

  • Darkthirty

    Missed by a point….gotta tighten that up

  • ridingwaves

    XLF is doing fine today….could go down a bit and still be bullish…
    I’m just paying attention to AMRN….its playing out beautiful..

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Guys SPY selling volume today confirming move lower
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    RW MNKD Still needs the bullish close above 1.82 before I buy PIRS is testing important support approx 4.90. Want a reversal candle at this support then I will jump in. RW Nice trade AMRN
    JULIE

  • ridingwaves

    AMRN
    PRTK
    GLMD

    could all double from here before xmas….but they could also drop….stops are cool huh?Amrn breaks out right here and 52 is pnf target…..

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    How’s everyone?

  • bankwalker

    Julie is very happy.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Hehe – apparently!

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III
  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    As you guys can tell the scalping signals get completely overwhelmed on a day like this. It’s usually best to ignore them and wait for a solid spike low. We are at VWAP now so this will be the big test going into the close.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Great Chief ! Nieman Marcus – Macy’s – Nordstrom’s – Saks Fifth Ave. Here I Come ! Love it Chief !
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Thanks RW !
    JULIE

  • BKXtoZERO

    In da Green Sir! I left a bunch on the table though….. I like your spike low idea and I was too quick to yield to my Pavlovian conditioning.
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/4b4f15e10569b825f9d279256a3e4d358beea814ec644edead22541491f1b4bc.jpg

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Guys Another chart showing Julie’s World Famous Ichi Cloud. As you can see the rising 144 closely matches the lower cloud boundary and support level The 55 ema natches closely the upper cloud and a support level. Again the target 1s the lower cloud boundary and the 144 ema. Any bounce from the 55 or 89 ema’s will be to a lower high referring to all charts posted below JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/c304995526e253943f1fbf43fc5f2e6e5b2f3221fafc68261567b7ea8527796e.png

  • Yoda

    Ha! They were probably bullish yesterday.

  • Ronebadger

    JSTFR at the close

  • Yoda

    Gold managed to do f.all today. Grr. Not good.
    Last chance for the bulls is tomorrow. If GC drops tomorrow below today’s low , I expect a world of pain for bugs.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Shorting USO PMO curling over and below 15.75 support
    JULIE

  • BKXtoZERO

    yup

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Yoda SLV Very strong support 13.64 today’s low 13.66. A bounce tomorrow from this level would be an entry Gonna watch SLV on the 60 min chart for a reversal candle at this level Possible bull flag Yoda don’t give up on the metals
    JULIE

  • ridingwaves

    it is NFP tomorrow…any weakness overnight will give fuel for the london and NY fix boys to power it down

  • Yoda

    Let’s hope you’re right ’cause it will piss me off if I get stopped out.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Yoda GLD 113.09 is the line in the sand A bearish close below 113.09 I would be out. GLD holding important 113.31 Don’t throw the towel in yet Yoda
    JULIE

  • Yoda

    yeah, they need an excuse to f. with my stop

  • BKXtoZERO

    Cool. I was driving to work and miss things.

  • bankwalker

    what is JSTFR?

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Just sell the {oh never mind}
    http://www.giyf.com/

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    ok, the bears found some food in the trash.
    (I thought I heard them rummaging yesterday when I made the nuts comment.)

    let’s watch the sleepy Friday RSI tomorrow.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/205ec114442ba1c772b16d8995c2da57026c9cb5ede05ecd0038b37ef46d1812.png

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Hi GG I believe Wells Fargo is laying off too
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Yeah, I have an extended extended family member there. (WFC)
    should probably touch base.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Is the apple pie done?

    don’t forget to tuck Grizz in.
    LOL.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    That’s exactly what happens to worker bees – they are dispensable.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Why do you care?

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    When emotions start interfering with your trading it’s advisable to take a few days off.