Bear Vs. Bear

Something pretty important happen today  – and it may have gotten lost in all the shuffle and it’s my civic duty to bring it to your attention. I am also upgrading the wave count to two not necessarily competing scenarios. Yes, we are pitting bear against bear.

As you can tell I’m the good looking one. Unfortunately the referee had to stop the fight as T.K. broke a fingernail and had to be checked into the emergency room. He is expected to recover in a few weeks.
[amprotect=nonmember] Updated count and kick ass commentary below for anyone donning a secret decoder ring. The rest of you guys will have to wait until tomorrow – sorry. If you are interested in becoming a Gold member then don’t waste time and sign up here. And if you are a Zero subscriber it includes access to all Gold posts, so you actually get double the bang for your buck.
[/amprotect] [amprotect=1,9,5,2]

So we’re bouncing a little it seems. My targets are either 1095 or we push higher into 1120. The difference in the two counts is not just academic. Green has us retrace a bit slower and will probably push a bit higher. Orange has us retrace a bit faster as it’s a smaller degree wave. We don’t want to push beyond 1125 by much or I will get worried.

The long term picture is really where the meat is today. First up we breached the February lows today which is a first confirmation of Primary {3} being in progress. The second confirmation will be when we drop through Intermediate (X) of Primary {2} around 870. This may happen within Intermediate (1) of Primary {3}, so just you know.

I actually screwed up on the chart as Soylent Green would probably get us to similar lows, but for now it doesn’t matter. What does matter are the targets I’m suggesting for Orange, which are calculated as multiples of Minor 1 down. If you think that is profitable for your long term puts then try Intermediate (3) later this summer. But one thing at a time, patience is key, right? 😉

I do still think we are most likely in Soylent Green – mostly due to my momo indicators which are all painting divergences. The NYSE Adv/Dec Volume ratio is one of them. In case you’re new here I have pointed out prior occurrences. Again we are looking at lower prices accompanied by higher readings – check. Not sure how quickly this thing can recharge itself to enable the next wave down, but let’s give it a few days.

Quick visit on the FX side of things, which seems to be driving equities. The EUR/JPY did what I thought it would do: push through the 20% stochastic and push higher. I can’t guarantee that it’ll make it all the way up to where I pointed as it’s been weak as ass but it’s a possibility. Watch for divergences here btw – they pay handsomely.

Finally some mental masturbation on the gold:silver ratio (traditionally an inverse correlation to the health of the economy) vs. the SPX. Just read the chart and it’ll make sense to you. Would like to know if you guys are seeing the same or if I’m imagining things.

That’s all I have for tonight. Before I run here’s a little goodie from EWI:

Prechter on Yahoo! Finance: “On Schedule for a Very, Very Long Bear Market”. Hey, that’s the way we like it! For more information on Robert and EWI download a free 10-page issue of the Elliott Wave Theorist. It challenges the current (now quickly fading) recovery hype Prechter style. It’s Mole approved – so go and get it 😉

Stay frosty and keep coming back! I’ll try to keep things interesting.

Cheers,

Mole