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Belated Thursday Update
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Belated Thursday Update

by The MoleAugust 16, 2012

I just came home from the hospital – sorry for the delayed post. Thanks for all the well wishes but no worries – I’m okay. I somehow acquired a nasty bursitis on my left elbow and needed urgent treatment. Thing is that almost all doctors (and most Spaniards in general) take much of August off and it’s almost impossible to find a specialist until September.

I was in the middle of writing my post earlier this evening when I caught a break and got a call back. Which however required me to drop everything to get the last available appointment before the weekend. The good news is that I’m all taken care off and in much better spirits than earlier today. Since it’s pretty late over here (past 10:00pm) please forgive me if I rattle through today’s charts rather quickly. There’s actually more going on than I would have expected, so let’s get started.

As you all know I have been sitting out the current short squeeze intentionally. Meaning – I saw it coming [1] [2] but decided that the risk far outweighed the potential benefit. Adding additional fuel to my lack of comfort in participating in this push higher is my VIX:VXO ratio chart. Apparently market makers are starting to price in some downside risk – which leads me to my next two charts:

Targets right – I did post about that before and little has changed. There’s that rising diagonal on the spoos and that shows us resistance between 1425 and 1430 – depending when we get there. In terms of volume there’s very little but that apparently has not meant much today.

Then there’s my double Bollinger chart – that one shows some resistance near 1422. Whether or not we turn there is another question but I think it should be good for a red candle or two.

The Nursery

We’re catching up with crude – we did get several entries near the 100-day SMA and it seems we are off to the races. So far so good.

10-year treasuries. I suggested a long trade at the Maginot Line two days ago. When I went back today I realized that I did NOT point out that a breach would put us into short positions – I usually do but for the record I have to concede that I forgot this time around. But I hope you subs will back me up when I humbly point out that this goes without saying for any stainless steel rat – we have been trading 100-day SMA breaches for ages here. In any case, if you flipped this trade then I suggest you hold short.

Soybeans – holding the NLBL – so far so good. Caveat – NLBL is expiring tomorrow, so we I would use yesterday’s lows as my stop.

CAD/JPY – great entry we got there and it’s proceeding upward just as hoped.

Setups

Copper is testing its NLBL – the same it has been failing for the past few weeks. I would be short here but definitely flip into a long if we see a close above that NLBL.

EUR/AUD – also testing its NLBL. Only problem is that it expired today. Officially a breach here would have reduced odds tomorrow but I think it’s permissible if other currency pairs are following suit. For example….

EUR/JPY – already punched through its NLBL and if you’re long here expect a retest as pretty much everything has been testing our patience lately. But yes – officially we are long here and your stop is below that Net-Line.

Cable – what a sweet setup! And I can’t believe I’m giving it away for free – must be a side effect of that cortison they injected into my left arm this evening. Great short as every Maginot Line test has failed recently. And of course we would be long on a breach. Watch this one closely – if it takes off to the long side I expect it to gain traction.

Okay guys – this should keep you busy tomorrow morning. I’m going to turn in and catch some zeezz.

Cheers,

P.S.: Believe it or not my laptop just died while finishing this post – NOT my lucky day today! 😉


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at the usual social media waterholes.
Enjoyed this post? Consider a small donation to keep those evil deeds coming!

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  • Darth_Gerb

    First! (crickets)

  • AMCabrera

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_KSyWS8UgA4
    http://content.screencast.com/users/AMCabrera/folders/Jing/media/ef316da7-47fe-4fdc-ac21-de7f56905bdb/2012-08-16_1730.png
    http://content.screencast.com/users/AMCabrera/folders/Jing/media/895a55ab-88d0-42cb-9e85-9f5b6103f362/2012-08-16_1726.png
    Man oh man Im glad you are ok. I thought I would have to call a cousin up and re animate you in Spain.
    I decided to change my mind with the GBP/USD, Ill give it one more go. I saw the same and went short at around 3:00. However, you will see the blue squares those are buy orders. All of them small orders (quarters lots). The larger orders are a short in usd/nok full lot and eur/usd half lot now. Thank you very much Mole! Love ya man. (no homo)

  • Darth_Gerb

    I found it!
    https://evilspeculator.com/?p=30136#comment-609234502
    now we are 24 handles higher on the SPX.

  • mothwhoflysbackwards

    Bursitis? That’s no type of malady for Evil. Getting your nose broke by a karate instructor is much cooler. Next time you go to the hospital and freak us all out at least try to have a bad ass reason — befitting your evilness.

    I thought it was the viagra. Three hours and 59 minutes and 59 seconds call the Guinness book of world records. Four Hours and one second call the Doctor. Then Mole told the Doctor he needs a nurse not a Doctor, and the Doctor said he will get a nurse right on it. One of those Benny Hill style Nurses would be best.

    All kidding aside glad to hear you are o.k.

  • StrikeFirst

    I know, I know, but I really like this chart for some reason:

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=W&b=6&g=0&id=p06975260027&a=271493468

  • Joe_Jones

    RIP lappy

  • Schwerepunkt

    I like it too . . . wish it were that easy.

  • http://twitter.com/law6 law

    Dear Mole

    Glad to hear they had something to help you out…what was the ‘cure’?And what is causing it?A Concerned Trader who loves your charts and humour!

  • MonkeyBusiness

    Mole, Glad to hear you are all fixed up.

  • AmazingLarry

    A mega blast of some curcumin and Zyflamend will fix that elbow right up, el Captain. 

  • Joe_Jones

    Turmeric has some amazing properties indeed

  • AMCabrera

    ohh im awake muahhaha

  • gsavli

    FB volume yesterday smelled of capitulation. Double bottom held.

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Lasted four and a half years – a very productive 2008 MacBook Pro. The video card blew up on me and this gives me a good excuse to migrate to a new Retina version. What can I say – I’m cheap – LOL – I usually use equipment until it dies.

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Bursitis caused by me practicing martial arts. I train on the floor a lot and that elbow got hit at some point. They sucked out the fluid with a syringe and then gave me a bit of cortisone. I am usually not a fan of cortisone but it’s the second time they have to take the liquid out and it’s not getting better. Have a martial arts seminar come up in October, so it’s time to get this elbow back in shape. Anyway, thanks for caring 🙂

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Sorry to disappoint – will try to sever a limb next time.

  • AMCabrera

    @mole what it really nasty for example shining or just soggy, puffy. I saw a guy once have it and my lord it was the most wicked thing I’ve seen. It look like it was shined it was so swollen and red.

  • AMCabrera

    http://content.screencast.com/users/AMCabrera/folders/Jing/media/375cf9a3-58f0-41d4-9ecf-6316d7b5442a/2012-08-17_0402.png
    Guys! I have not paid much attention to this pair lately but good grief look at this! AUD/USD it is surround by sell orders.

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    could be time to look at gold silver and copper..

  • AMCabrera

    long hair dont care I have to try some aud/usd longs. tight ReaLLy tight stop 20 pips.

  • AMCabrera

    So far GBP/USD is going by the script that I had for it yesterday. 

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    yes was thinking same looks like it is taking abreather before next move up…has also been a big outperformer, am long EURAUD from yday TP 1.1920

  • gsavli

    So far still nothing significantly wrong with being short (DAX) here. This spike was predictable, DAX has today bumped twice against 7030, second time it was promptly denied and is now slowly drifting lower.

    I remember these games from the last OPEX day, everything was exactly the same – “they” managed to keep DAX high and VIX very low right until 13:00 CET, when ODAX options expire and then the correction begun. Promptly, almost at 13:01 CET. These games are only possible when volume and participation are extremely low, just like these days.

    EDIT: Maybe it is a bit later during the day, when options expire, but nevertheless, I rememebr decline started immediately after.

  • AMCabrera

    popped at b/e for the GBP/USD waiting at 1.5660 and 1.5730

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    Have to disagree, nothing to say the trend (UP) has changed and every dip has been bought.. especially as we were rangebound between 6880 and 7000 for more than a week..I would say that we have more chances of going higher than down..still long DAX, stop (profit taking close by) BUT on any significant fall would look to enter LONG again… Key level to rethink for me would be 6870, and on upside looking for at minimum test of 7100 to 7200

  • AMCabrera

    Ok lets get prepared this will probably be fast.

  • AMCabrera

    changed dropping gbp/usd back to 1.5700.

  • AMCabrera

    http://content.screencast.com/users/AMCabrera/folders/Jing/media/b24095f3-b963-4468-b891-145838c1ad6a/2012-08-17_0716.png
    mainly why i dropped it. I dont always use 15 minute chart but when I do I like to be precise and out fast.

  • gsavli

     Yes, trend is still up, but the environment is becoming progressively
    rancid (extremely low VIX, low HG, AUD/JPY and AUD/USD falling).
    And,every trend comes to an end, plus – the 1st day of trend change is
    always extremely violent. We’ve had 8 or so more or less range days so
    far. Participation is so low, that the slightest breeze could send this
    5% either way. DAX has been so far bumping against 7030, USD is on the
    rise. And before such a strong trend changes it always has to look as if
    this thing will go indefinitely on (this feeling is now here).
    On the other hand, the trend is still up.

  • AMCabrera

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3po17QbHLRQ&feature=related
    come on boys! My favorite movie when I was in elementary school.

  • gsavli

     One more thought – I am aware of the fact that probably most of traders disagree with me due to the strong looks of this trend (but – again – on what volume and in what kind of environment) and this actually comforts me in a way. 😉

    And, my SL was triggered, but I entered again just below today’s top. SL set just above this top (DAX fut 7035).

  • DarthTrader

    Also the / ES has been in an ABC up to 1415.50 as I’ve been posting about for the last few weeks.  That was completed yesterday so the market could certainly pull back right here especially considering today is Op Exp and the market has been up 10 of the last 12 trading days so the Max Pain is clearly to the downside.

    The Bond market is threatening the 200 day ma  While the Fed Wants equities to rise and produce a wealth affect  They NEED Bonds to stay high and keep the cost of all their debt at manageable levels.  A sell off in Equities will lift bonds immediately

    OTOH A final Blowoff Top could rage up for a few more days or simply break above the April 2 high at 1419.75

  • Skynard

    LOL, way to many bulls for my taste:)

  • AMCabrera

    Very dangerous mistake. I would not correlate AUD/pairs falling meaning equities will fall. 

  • AmazingLarry

    Yes, I’m a fan of a broad spectrum of natural COX2 inhibitors like turmeric standardized to 95% curcurminoids as well as ginger, boswellia, rosemary, etc and then top it off with the proteolytic enzymes. It’s not naproxen sodium (Aleve) but it also won’t trash your gut, either. 

  • AmazingLarry

    Totes magotes, DT. Seems “they” won’t have it any other way. 

  • AMCabrera

    http://content.screencast.com/users/AMCabrera/folders/Jing/media/dfd542f4-bd87-4442-b6da-f2d410c88e68/2012-08-17_0744.png
    men concentrate god damnit! More charts with setups! Im fucking sick of hearing of them, they, and theories. Bank coin and contribute.

  • gsavli

    it’s quite correlated. however, it can precede fall of equities by a month or so. and it is not the sole reason I think this market rise looks awfully suspicious.

  • gsavli

     exactly. “wow, this thing will just go up and up”. 🙂

  • MrMargin

    This.

  • Skynard

    The biggest problem equities has is that the dollar is incresing and commodities have not followed.

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    Not sure that there are that many “BULLS ” around..retail have been pulling money out of equities and sticking it in “safe assets” for the last 5-6 months…the dollar index looks like it is topping, commodities look like bottoming..of course every time we have a correction the bears jump in and proclaim Armageddon…I wish !! i prefer bear markets cos things go down quicker than they go up!!  Sure the nimble can play the short side scalps.. depends on your style..me prefer longer term stuff…

    I want to see the public jump back in with both feet and then it will be time for the BIG short trade..
    And they will..but they will want to see the markets “break out”..
    Am guessing that may be towards the end of the Autumn (earliest) or beginning of next year… 
    pure guess!
    Anyway good luck to all! There is room for all kinds of traders (scalpers, swing, long term , mixture of all and more!)

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    PS
    Copper on the move..

  • AMCabrera

    eur/usd hovering around 1.2330.

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Definitely flip that for a long.

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    yep…

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Subs – please check your email.

  • Skynard

    Took the short instead:)

  • badflightrisk

    I don’t think your going to see the public jumping back in any time soon.  Demographics have the baby boomers retiring at 10000 a day and their looking for saftey which todays markets doesn’t represent. Perhaps a wall street mass lynching might restore confidence but higher prices on their own isn’t going to do it.
    Many of the big names that mutual funds own all peaked in 2011.  F, GM, BAC, C, MS, GS, GE plus countless more have not participated.  The index’s really don’t represent reality.

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    “Perhaps a wall street mass lynching”

    At least one of my rats has higher aspirations… LOL

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Second that!!!

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Quote of the day:
    More charts with setups! Im fucking sick of hearing of them, they, and theories.
    Bank coin and contribute.
    –AMCabrera

  • AMCabrera

    oh boy 1.2330 needs to to re taken or my b/e stop is looking very tasty . 

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    yes maybe but with low rates everywhere retirees also need to find return and many are taking what used to be unacceptably high risks to find return… as you said everything has changed…

    many older friends have seen thir incomes drop dramatically in the last 10 years…

  • Darth_Gerb
  • AMCabrera

    mmm gonna try it putting other half in at 2330. nope not working. popped across board. aud/usd gone.

  • DarthTrader

    Only 30 minutes of distribution?

  • ridingwaves

    ANX is alive this morning..42 million in cash, no debt….shorts are trapped..cheap gamble with tight stop..

  • Skynard

    Good volume behind the /DX

  • BobbyLow

    Mornin Folks,

    I haven’t been following any news but wonder if it’s time for more action in the Middle East?  Ever notice how the big stuff usually happens over a weekend?  Must be coincidental.  🙂  
    Still long oil.

    http://screencast.com/t/nbAIR9API6 

       

  • badflightrisk

    SPY vs EUR/USD

  • newbfxtrader

    Next month sky wait for next month for /dx rally to 88-90! Should be fun. Ur too early. Let it go to 80 first before you back up the truck.

  • newbfxtrader

    Ur on fire! Are you taking the same pills Skynard is on?

  • AMCabrera

    haha! 

  • AMCabrera

    popped and Im done. 

  • newbfxtrader

    lol are you talking about FX?!

  • Skynard

    Could be, Bucky looks like it’s on a mission today though, B-line to 83. See what happens now that happy hour is over:)

  • Skynard

    LOL!

  • bdoone

    Bear Food for Thought:

  • AMCabrera

    yup just gonna watch now.

  • Schwerepunkt

    Hmmm . . . nice chart. By this, we can expect EUR to continue to rise for a bit before equities turn over.

  • Darth_Gerb

    that’s what she….oh nevermind

  • StrikeFirst

    OK, potential setups.

  • gsavli

    it might take most of the day.

  • StrikeFirst

    Sep 36 call on FL looks interesting.

  • gsavli

     not today, not anymore…

  • ridingwaves

    whohooo..this is fun…

  • MrMargin

    $FRAN probably needs to base a couple of days, too high now. I had it on my watchlist and an alert set at 32.73, but missed it…

  • AMCabrera

    LOL! wow I just now got it.

  • Darth_Gerb
  • StrikeFirst

    Look at the VIX nosediving.

    ???

  • DarthTrader

    The Moon she is New . . .

  • AMCabrera

    http://content.screencast.com/users/AMCabrera/folders/Jing/media/4fb998b5-e070-4484-9480-97a13084ce7f/2012-08-17_1156.png
    Ok sucker move continued. However, 1425 and 1433 will have to be checkpoints for my bullish in currencies.

  • newbfxtrader

    Yup yup. People trying to pick a top. When they give up I will step in. Not making same mistakes I made past couple years! Let the market come to me…

  • StrikeFirst

    Long cheap weekly calls for a quick intraday play.

    We’ll see…

  • DarthTrader

    Unlabeled Chart Coiling, Volume Dropping . . . What happens now?

    Lower Highs, Higher Lows since 2007

  • Skynard

    SPY max pain 137, not that it matters.

  • itslance

    The other interesting thing is the $vix:$vxv ratio that Mole likes using….it’s slammed into the lower BB with RSI and MACD at historic support levels. Not sure if/how that will factor into things.

  • BobbyLow

    The only Max Pain created is for the the people who make trading decisions based on it.  🙂

    Having followed the open access to Max Pain for about a year I found it to have no edge whatsoever.

  • Skynard

    NYA weekly?

  • BobbyLow

    Correctomundo!

  • DarthTrader

    Daily NYA 

    The NYA is all stocks trading on the NYSE Nice Job

  • MrMargin

    VIX at 13.42. How much higher can the SPX push before the inevitable shakeout?

  • BobbyLow

    Do my eyes deceive me or has ES been within a 4 point range all day?   Somebody needs to tell the market that this is Friday of OPEX week.   

  • Sam W.

    Vix dropping like a rock!

  • Skynard

    LOL, been wrong so many times that I started to trade against it. Don’t usually pay much attention to VIX unless we are at extremes. They usually signal turns in the market though.

  • DarthTrader

    Yes, Op EXp used to be a high volume, high volatility day.  

    In recent years quite the opposite

  • Darth_Gerb

    Max Pain 137, bwahahaha..

  • ronebadger

     VIX will be weird today because of options expirations

  • Skynard

    Yep, buying more today. Love these plays at extremes, you really think VIX is going to 0? 🙂

  • Skynard

    5 min div looks complete now:)

  • Joe_Jones

    If we get a VWAP rejection, I’ll slowly built back my short position

  • BobbyLow

    That’s a good question but here is a picture of the VIX on a monthly chart.  Look to the far lower left at 2004 through 2007.

    http://screencast.com/t/hGSwywTu64K  

  • Skynard

    Good greif, what about 1325-1340? Good show!

  • DarthTrader

    Options Expirations  = Great Fishin Day

  • Joe_Jones

    1325-1340 is still in play IMO. In cash for now. 

  • Skynard

    Tell you what, if this market does drop today that ZL signal is spot on.

  • Darth_Gerb

    (JJ is the wisest bear I know so far, he knows when to hunker down at the secret berry bush, and went to go to the stream for salmon)

  • ronebadger

     nifty 5 min triangle going on

  • AMCabrera

    mmmm for next week that aussie butt might need closer inspection. I will go long or short no matter.

  • Skynard

    No escaping the ZL, Mwahahahaha!

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    ¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨ 
    ¨°º¤ø„¸  N E W  „ø¤º°¨ 
    ¸„ø¤º°¨ P O S T “°º¤ø„¸
    ¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°º¤ø„¸

  • Skynard

    Looking like a head fake:)

  • Joe_Jones

    Well thank you very much Sir