Bitcoin Back From The Dead
Bitcoin just touched the $30k mark, proving once again that bull markets seem have a tendency to sneak up on you. I know that may sound a bit hare brained, but please raise your hand if you managed to catch merely half of BTC’s 95% monster ramp off the Nov 22nd lows.
Maybe one third?
Just ten percent?
Yup that’s what I thought…
Now as much as I enjoy breaking your balls about missed opportunities I have to admit that buying BTC anywhere below $20k required brass cohones and an Elon Musk approved puff of hopium.
Especially after a 1 year plus bear market that managed to wipe out well over 60% of the assets of most HODLERs.
So yes, you are forgiven, but ONLY if you weren’t a Gravitas subscriber.
What’s a Gravitas you wonder?
I’m glad you asked. It’s a signal service I developed back in late 2021 after the painful realization that Glassnode’s on-chain NUPL signal had been arbitraged into oblivion.
Which was sort of a problem as we were using it as an off/on switch for Cryptonaissance – our crypto trend trading system that prior to that had produced over 1000% in profits in one single year.
“Someth’n you may wanna take care of, son”
“Yes, indeed good sir!”
So I dug around in the murky depths of my brain, and out popped an old theory I had been dabbling with after having forced myself through Michel van Biezen’s Youtube series on the Kalman Filter (nerd link here) a few years earlier.
Because, you know, that’s what I do for fun on weekends….
Okay now what the heck is a Kalman Filter and why would I care?
Nerd alert!!! Okay, so the Kalman Filter is a powerful algorithm used to predict the future state of a system.
It uses an iterative series of equations to calculate the estimated future state of a system, taking into account noise and uncertainty associated with your observations.
Sounds exotic but the Kalman is actually used in a vast range of applications such as navigation, robotics, motion control, artificial intelligence, GPS systems, etc..
Although it’s a pretty simple algorithm it allows you to greatly and quickly arrive at an accurate prediction.
Just what the doctor ordered I thought, and after watching 55 long videos and having to bulk up on matrix equations I walked away armed with knowledge and the determination to once and for all solve a huge issue I had been battling with for many years.
No, not my bad sense of humor – that’s unfortunately incurable. Rather I had long been looking for a trend trading signal that satisfied two main criteria:
1) It kept me in the overall trend
2) It didn’t get shaken out during volatile periods
Sounds easy enough, right? Well – think again, because many people much smarter than me have tried and failed in the past to come up with a LT trend signal worth the bloody code it’s written in.
(Paging Ken Long, will Ken Long please report to the insanity ward…)
Until now that is. Bold claims – I know – but let me prove it to you.
That right here is a PnL of BTC vs. Gravitas over the past 8 years.
We’ll get to more juicy stats in a minute but you’d agree that no matter what – in comparison with BTC the returns look smooth as silk and are consistent over time.
It trades long as well as short, and it’s always in the market. No stops – no glory.
Now at this point you probably wonder why you never before heard about Gravitas. I mean, thanks for telling me about all this AFTER the fact, Mike!
You are welcome. But let me assure you that there was method to my madness.
Back in June of 2022 I actually was ready to release Gravitas to the public but – truth to be told – everyone hated crypto at this point.
And at that time the last thing I had in mind was offering a new crypto signal service that wasn’t fully tested and risk being tarred, feathered, and being carried out of town on a rail.
So instead I did the right thing and offered it for free to all of my Cryptonaissance subscribers. Who at first sort of ignored it – I mean who could really blame them.
But then came this:
And then this:
And most recently this:
What you are looking at are some of the LIVE signals that were sent to my Cryptonaissance subs over in my RPQ trading floor.
Meaning this thing has been ticking away quietly for nearly a year now and it clearly seems to be doing what it was designed to do.
Pick the big swings in BTC and ETH like a runny nose.
Which it does with gusto. I wrote a script that parsed the actual data feed I provide to my subs and draws lines at the entries and exits.
Quick correction: I actually changed the settings slightly most recently (Loom on that here) and the most recent long entry actually happened in early January:
We exited that trade a month later for 28% in profits or $4738 per BTC purchased at $17k.
That’s nice but is Gravitas just a one-trick pony?
Judging by the last eight years of printing coin (literally) I can declaratively say no – it’s bloody consistent with an annual CAGR of 59%.
To give you an idea – a normal CAGR in stocks is about 15% – a good CAGR is 25% – anything above that is considered brilliant.
But enough with all the teasing. How can you get Gravitas and how does it work?
Let’s start with the ‘how does it work’ part first.
Basically Gravitas runs on both ETH and BTC. The alerts I posted are sent out once per day in order to keep you in the loop.
In RPQ trading forum you receive push alerts via my gravitas_btc and gravitas_eth forum channels.
This way you get to see all the signals over time and there’s no monkey business. If you don’t want to receive push alerts on your mobile you can just set the channel to mute, that simple.
In terms of how to sign up: I haven’t set that up YET but with BTC back at the $30k mark I think it’s coming soon.
The price will be more than reasonable, chump change really in comparison with how much money all of you have lost HODLing crypto over the past year or two.
So why would you WANT to trade along Gravitas?
So you don’t have to ever worry about missing out on big moves in both BTC and ETH.
So you don’t have to waste time following around all those ‘crypto gurus’ who keep getting it wrong almost every single time.
So you can safely ignore all the noise on social media hyping or demonizing crypto – depending on the flavor du jour.
So you don’t have to check your effing account every three hours worrying about a trade.
So you can maintain your sanity (no guarantees though – it’s 2023).
And YES, it even works if you HATE crypto and think it’s a scam.
Money is money – it doesn’t care how you earn it.
And finally it’s VERY low maintenance – which you can tell from the signal. We take a trade every few weeks at most, sometimes we hold a position for months, especially when crypto is trending.
And that’s what you want from a trend trading signal.
Anyway, if you’re interested in joining up simply send me a message here and I get you set up as soon as we’re ready to open Gravitas up to the public.
See you on the other side.