Bouncalitious

Unfortunately I don’t have much time to put together a comprehensive post today. However let the record state that the Mole went out on quite a limb calling for the possibility of a bounce yesterday when Europe was already reporting impending doom and gloom and way before the spoos even opened. Which of course looked bearish as hell at first and over the course of the night slowly reversed upward. Did I have a crystal ball? Of course not – I’m as clueless a schmuck as the rest of you rats. What I do have however are my charts which suggested the possibility of a bounce here was very real.

The support cluster I proposed last week worked like a charm – we snapped back right at the 100-day SMA. Does this mean the bulls are out of the woods and we’re reversing upward? I wouldn’t be so rash as to suggest that. As usual it’s the follow up that counts and the next two days will be rather revealing.

Disappointingly the VIX today didn’t make it all the way to my upper BB. Which seems bullish but it’s actually bearish on a medium term basis as volatility did not snap higher to justify a good long opportunity lasting more than a day or two.

The weekly SPX has us back above that NLBL but since it’s only Monday the bears have four more sessions to push it back below. Actually they have several more weeks as this NLSL just got started. What’s really fascinating is that we are seeing two weekly NLSL right next to each other. So the SPX 1360 mark will be the proverbial Maginot line separating a continuation of the ongoing trend from a breach and start of new market dynamics. We shall see – as we are not in the guessing business we will simply observe and follow the tape wherever it leads us. Opinions are for losers – I prefer to be wrong but bank coin irrespectively. If that concept confuses you then you haven’t been coming around here long enough.

UPDATE: I just came across a few setups I simply could not let pass us by. Please step into my Madrid Ersatz Lair:

Natural gas futures are painting something extremely rare – a triple inside day setup. A double inside day is already something we rats have wet dreams about – but a triple? This is the trading equivalent of getting a personal invitation to the Playboy Mansion by Hugh Heffner. You are a stainless steel rat – you know what to do. if you’re a lowly noob then please consult the cheat sheet 😉

Incidentally Drew1985 (a regular and intrepid stainless steel rat) just reminded me that it’s an NR4 as well – how sweet is that?

Gold – inside day setup as well.  And if that’s not enough – we are also seeing inside days on corn, soybean, and wheat. Have at it!

Cheers,