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Buoyancy!
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Buoyancy!

by The MoleNovember 21, 2013

As someone already pointed out in the comment section today: The market is exhibiting remarkable resiliency here and it seems that our YM short trade will find its untimely end soon. Fortunately we may not even have to wait for our stop to kick in as today’s action will give us an opportunity to lower our stop and even hitch a ride on the next bus:

So let’s take things from the top and let’s start with the YM which has been the symbol we shorted on Wednesday. Unless we close above yesterday’s highs we’ll produce an inside period again and that means we can lower our stop to today’s high. Plus it also means that we’ll be able to reverse positions there and enter a bonafide long trade. IF and only if we drop back lower again tomorrow anyone left out of the recent short will have a second chance to jump into the fray as well. But frankly speaking, as of this moment, this possibility looks questionable at best. Well, it is what it is and we never question the tape – it’s like surfing – you grab the wave the ocean throws at you and then you cross your fingers and hope the sharks don’t bite your legs off 😉

Ditto on the ES – here we weren’t short but tomorrow may bestow us with an IP-L. Technically speaking we will have an RTV-S here as well as long as we don’t push above 1799.75 – but once again allow me to be skeptical.

NQ – rinse and repeat – triggers on the chart if you prefer to play tech.

FYI – it may be worthwhile observing the UVOL activity during your session. The simple plot here strongly suggests that the bots were kicked into overdrive this morning – things are looking way too orderly here. And FWIW – I should have warned you guys about this all along as none of the last two sessions showed us a signature that pointed to the downside, quite on the contrary. Mia culpa and I apologize. But I sometimes get a bit overwhelmed running the blog, the system, respond to inquires, etc. – how’s that for a paltry excuse?

Gold – looking like an experimental long here at the lower 100-day BB. I wish I had more context and I’m not going to risk more than 1/2R on this one. Fortunately the candle is pretty small so we should get clarification here soon.

Some juicy setups below – as always the Mole delivers. FWIW – I would appreciate more feedback in the comment section. So if you’re a sub and you’re trading any of them please don’t be shy and chime in!

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About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at the usual social media waterholes.
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  • buysidetrader

    wonder why the 5 min ZL is flat linning during this latest ramp?

  • Ronebadger

    suspect move?

  • CorporalCarrot

    It’s been flat most of the day considering the ramporama. I have often noticed however that this condition doesn’t always immediately resolve itself on the day.

  • Darkthirty

    All TA seems to be diverging or flat

  • Darkthirty

    78.6 retrace FWIW gonna pick up some puts

  • buysidetrader

    well. heres our partial answer. giving back some our 1794+ push

  • CorporalCarrot

    Anyone else get the feeling MM’s desperately trying to close this over 16k?

  • Fearless

    You should have a peek at the ISEE equities only C/P ratio.

  • CorporalCarrot

    How can I find that?

  • Fearless

    Google isee equity call/put ratio, second result.

  • CorporalCarrot

    Can’t see today I’m afraid, do you need to subscribe? Could you give me the cliff notes conclusion? 🙂

  • bdoone
  • Fearless

    The ratio, should it close relatively near the current intraday numbers, opens up the Bollinger band drastically. Last time it happened in this manner was March 26 2012. The fear factor doubled over the next three months.

    But keep in mind, past record does not predict future performance.

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Heisen_Gerb

    1795/1796…I see no desperation.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p28964907271

    99.965% purity, another half hour to go.

  • bdoone

    Thanks for the heads up. Was one of those numbers that had value when it printed ‘outlier’ type numbers during high volitility times and sort of faded away. I still have it in my ‘favorites tab’ and may be time to get reacquainted. Anybody not familiar can probably type ISEE into the ES ‘search bar’ (above right) to get familiarized.
    EDIT: how do you put a BB on it?

  • CorporalCarrot

    Me neither, as I cautioned Sky earlier, market looks incredibly resilient here all things considered. Couldn’t rule out it going parabolic, and divergences are often “right before their time”.

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Heisen_Gerb

    I did see your caution. if a short covering spurt over 1800 is in store (which I have no idea).
    current upper band is at 1810.72. higher yet tomorrow.

  • DarthTrader

    This looks like one of days where /ES futures sell off overnight then rally back up for the open tomorrow

  • Sean

    Not buying it up here, just looks like a lack of selling as opposed to a strong conviction to buy, and the VIX started diverging ~2PM EST… I think today closing in the green makes for a juicier short setup tomorrow, so I am looking forward to the IP-S triggering (the filters I’m testing are currently keeping me out of new long positions).

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Heisen_Gerb

    last week I posted a chart. hell, I think I post the most.
    but someone just had to piss on my parade and down-voted it! a chart! !@#$!@#$

    well, I must apologize, I let the conviction shake me.
    Now Fearless told me once, stick with your conviction, discipline does still apply.

    so for all the unknown lurkers out there, be brave, stand firm, and speak up.
    iron sharpens iron

    http://s8.postimg.org/ajg9nlxsl/1820.png

  • BobbyLow

    It could have been a down vote by accident and besides, 1 Down Vote out of 6,468 Votes ain’t too shabby! 🙂

  • http://www.parafriv.net/ Para Friv

    Another interesting information, it should be called a good news eh okay. It’s the last time was extremely difficult for many people and myself too. Many thanks for the sharing.

  • Sean

    To borrow from an old addage: if you’re not getting down votes then you’re not doing something right… Also, anyone willing to risk being wrong publicly has infinitely more balls than all anonymous down-voters combined (provided you learn from being wrong of course).

  • newbfxtrader

    “newbfxtrader
    • a day ago
    ?

    Booking profits gbp/aud eur/aud for now. Will renter on breakout above 1.75 and 1.46 respectively.”

    Anybody take it? If so you are welcome!

  • newbfxtrader

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/D62o66S8/

    Well. Hello beautiful….

  • newbfxtrader

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/L744m0wc/

    Dont see why we cant get to 1.8.

  • CorporalCarrot

    One for the archives………………

  • Skynard

    Short /NG, stop above most recent high. Putting in lower highs. Dollar down, market next:)

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    ¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨

    ¨°º¤ S H A K E N ¤º°¨

    ¸„ø¤º° B A K E !“°º¤ø„¸

    ¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°º¤ø„¸

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Thanks corporal – I used it as the theme of my next post 🙂