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March 1, 2018

The Bear Beckons

The market speaks to us in many ways and one of the most effective means of direct communication is how it measures up against our open campaigns. Now having been at this game for more time I care to admit I have developed a discipline of observing the probabilities of outcome at every stage. Which is in part why I keep posting on this blog, beyond an additional (small) source of income it forces me to express my views and trading activities as succinctly and clearly as possible.

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February 26, 2018

The Squeeze Is On

Happy Monday everyone! I am happy to report that several of the entry opportunities I posted last Friday are faring well with hopefully more ill-gotten gains beyond the horizon. On the equities side the E-Mini is getting ready to put the squeeze on whoever remains short at this point. And let me tell you right now – if you are a bear, or are still holding short, you are probably not going enjoy this post.

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February 9, 2018

The End Of The Beginning

This may sound a bit strange coming from a born German (and now proud U.S. citizen) but I’m actually quite a fan of Sir Winston Churchill as I was always fascinated by his irreverent personality. He had a very interesting upbringing as a child due to a rather complicated relationship with his then renowned father. What’s most compelling however, and what stands in stark contrast to the so called political leaders of today, is how he actively sought out seemingly unsurmountable challenges and then faced them head-on and without compromise throughout his entire life. He is remembered by many timeless quotes but here is one of my favorites:

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February 6, 2018

The Day The IV Short Trade Died

Effectively yesterday’s wipe out in equities will be remembered as the day the IV short trade died. As you all recall I have been rather prolific on the subject of implied volatility over the years and I’m not averse to admitting that it has become a bit of a professional obsession of mine. Thus it was just natural that I would be raising red flags when seeing (repeated) signs of a possible market dislocation on the horizon. Which I then did right here, cautiously and as productively as possible, given the fact that many a bears species have come extinct over the course of the past decade.

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Cognitive Bias Carousel
  • Cognitive DissonanceCognitive Dissonance
    I had to think┬álong and hard about what exactly to post today without insulting at least half of my readership. As you know I have … more
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