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March 1, 2018

The Bear Beckons

The market speaks to us in many ways and one of the most effective means of direct communication is how it measures up against our open campaigns. Now having been at this game for more time I care to admit I have developed a discipline of observing the probabilities of outcome at every stage. Which is in part why I keep posting on this blog, beyond an additional (small) source of income it forces me to express my views and trading activities as succinctly and clearly as possible.

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February 9, 2018

The End Of The Beginning

This may sound a bit strange coming from a born German (and now proud U.S. citizen) but I’m actually quite a fan of Sir Winston Churchill as I was always fascinated by his irreverent personality. He had a very interesting upbringing as a child due to a rather complicated relationship with his then renowned father. What’s most compelling however, and what stands in stark contrast to the so called political leaders of today, is how he actively sought out seemingly unsurmountable challenges and then faced them head-on and without compromise throughout his entire life. He is remembered by many timeless quotes but here is one of my favorites:

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January 26, 2018

Long Term Musings In January 2018

Everyone apparently hates the Dollar now and continues to cheer its slow but steady demise. In a little over a year we went from nearly par with the EUR/USD to an exchange rate of 1.25 and the pace appears to be increasing. I’m literally heading to the ATM every single day now stashing as much Euros as possible as they most likely will cost me a little more tomorrow. It’s almost starting to feel a bit like living in Argentina, except that nobody else seems to care. Not surprisingly almost everything else, equities and commodities in particular, have responded strongly. After equities, are we now heading for a bull market in commodities? Let’s review where we are on [...]

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December 22, 2017

No Lift No Gift!

Yesterday was my first day back at the gym and managed to snap right back into my full routine in stark contrast of me barely being able to walk upright just last Sunday. As the saying goes: No Pain – No Gain, or in Yuletide terms: No Lift No Gift! Which pretty much has been my motto for most of this year as I’ve been working my ass off 10 hours plus seven days a week on the quant system front, all of which is slowly starting to pay off now. More on that to follow over the coming weeks after alpha testing has completed.

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Cognitive Bias Carousel
  • Loss AversionLoss Aversion
    The tendency to treat money that has already been committed or spent as more valuable than money that may be spent or acquired. Imagine two … more
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