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And So It Begins

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December 11, 2020

And So It Begins

Don’t you hate it when someone you know is proven to be right about something and then keeps on rubbing it in by saying ‘I told ya so’? Well, I hate to be that guy today (actually I don’t) but heck… I TOLD YA SO! What am I droning on about again? Implied volatility of course – what did you think?

506
 

Scary Setups

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January 15, 2020

Scary Setups

If I could have a penny for every setup I felt enthusiastic about and that invariably blew up in my face I would be… well, a lot richer than I am. To be honest when it comes to picking juicy entries off a chart I rank about average. What may set me apart from the rest, and what has helped me survive in a wide range of market conditions over the years was learning to overcome my instincts and engage in setups that scared the heck out of me.

568
 

Drop To The IV Baseline

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December 18, 2019

Drop To The IV Baseline

It’s EOY rally season and apparently everyone has been at their best behavior this year as Santa already has delivered in spades. At this point however what I care more about is what lies ahead for us, and given a technical vacuum at all time highs it may be worthwhile to take a look at implied volatility for clues.

7695
 

VIX Buy Signal Triggered

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December 6, 2019

VIX Buy Signal Triggered

I have been posting here on Evil Speculator for over 11 years now but this is the first time I recall a VIX Buy Signal following a Sell Signal in such short succession. Can it be trusted? Did I miss the pre-Santa-Rally dip? Is it too late to load up on long positions? So many nagging questions but as usual the Market Mole’s got you covered:

5882
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Cognitive Bias Carousel
  • Recency BiasRecency Bias
    Over the past two months we have been navigating some pretty volatile tape which in the process offered us several swing trading opportunities. As a result I have been …
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