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May 23, 2016

Wedged In

Equities have managed to run circles around even the most sagacious traders over the past few months. We’ve been able to grab a few favorable entries, but constant whipsaw fueled by contradictory musings from central banks on both sides of the Atlantic has effectively turned directional trading on its head whilst offering ever more fertile conditions for swing traders and nimble scalping aficionados.

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May 16, 2016

Productive Tape

Equities are actually looking productive for a change, as we have major indices in sync retesting medium and long term support. That’s a respectable long opportunity although I am already inversely exposed and must let that one resolve first before embarking on any new campaigns. Which is an iron rule I very rarely violate and only if I see very compelling reasons to do so. When in doubt stick with the script, especially in whipsaw tape. Not because you will always bank more coin but you will lose a lot less by not getting lured into abrasive campaigns which push your buttons and further lead to excuses to re-establish bad trading habits. System purity almost always trumps [...]

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November 30, 2015

Welcome Back!

I hope you enjoyed a few days off – I certainly did and although I would love to boast that I spent my time productively I mostly wound up catching up with a few shows and training with my guys. Even Mole the machine needs to recharge his batteries every once in a while. However there’s only so much idle time I can tolerate and I intend to hit the ground running here as we are now heading into one of the most exciting periods of the year. So snap out of your tryptophan induced slumbers and let’s get to work!

On the equities side we are holding strong and you should move your stop below the 25-day SMA around 2077. We are now facing medium term overhead [...]

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November 25, 2015

Happy Thanksgiving

Apparently the Thanksgiving correction I anticipated quickly devolved into an obligatory shake out followed by a bounce. Obviously you won’t hear me complain as I’m still holding my long positions since ES 2013.75. Given that participation is bound to dry up quickly after lunch today I suggest you limit your exposure and instead attend to planning your respective holiday weekends.

After seven consecutive years of meager holiday dinners for the few surviving bears I wonder how long the current stew of QE madness is going to keep us treading in place. Most likely we will finish this year near where we started it. Last December we closed the yearly candle at [...]

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Cognitive Bias Carousel
  • Sunk Cost EffectSunk Cost Effect
    The tendency to treat money that has already been committed or spent as more valuable than money that may be spent or acquired. Also known … more
Key Concepts In Risk Management
A Sucker Born Every Minute
Game Changer
State Of Volatility
Statistics Galore
Fooled By Randomness