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January 8, 2016

E-Mini Entry Opportunity

Conceding we have very little technical context right now I however do love the short term panel on the E-Mini right now. Without further ado – here’s our evil scheme for the day: Grab a small short position here until about 1960 (we’ll have to watch the Zero after the open). If 1960 gives then I’m long with a stop below the current spike low near 1940.

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December 4, 2015

There Is No Room At The Bottom

In 1959 at Caltech, Dr. Richard Feynman presented the American Physical Society with his classic lecture titled ‘There’s Plenty of Room at the Bottom‘, outlining his vision of the future and the possibility of engineering microscopic technology down to the molecular scale. Feynman’s presentation has continued to inspire several generations of biologists, physicists, and chemists to this very day. Only in the recent past however, more than half a century later, are we beginning to harvest the fruits of his vision, as our scientific knowledge and technological capabilities are slowly encroaching into the microscopic world.

Unfortunately however it seems [...]

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December 2, 2015

The Slow Churn Continues

We continue in upside churn mode – meaning we climb one step up and then fall back three quarters of that – then climb again and fall back again a little. It is starting to look like a sideways correction here as the opening for the bears to drive prices down a little ahead of a Santa rally is diminishing rapidly with every session now. The medium term resistance zone near 2010 is proving difficult to overcome and I guess the strategy seems to be death by a million paper cuts.

As you can see there isn’t much activity beyond ES 2005 on the volume profile. The ambiguous remarks by Yellen earlier this morning seem to be interpreted as ‘no news is [...]

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December 1, 2015

Recency Bias

Over the past two months we have been navigating some pretty volatile tape which in the process offered us several swing trading opportunities. As a result I have been pretty pleased with myself after serving up consecutive profitable entries near medium term inflection points. However upon a bit of meditation earlier today I realized that my own ego may be getting the better of me. For one it is very tempting to engage in calling turning points after successfully having done so in the recent past. That little psychological trap probably lies somewhere in the realms of illusion of control bias which is to believe that one can foresee or even influence future outcomes that one has no [...]

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Cognitive Bias Carousel
  • Herding BiasHerding Bias
    Something very interesting happened during our trip back to Valencia last Sunday. After checking our luggage and passing through the airport’s security procedures we had a … more
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