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December 7, 2015

Short Term Entry Opportunity

I hope you guys are rested and ready to rock & roll as we’ve got an unfolding and time critical entry opportunity on the E-Mini. I’m going in with a very small position size as whipsaw risk is real and we’re not benefitting from a lot of context right now:

The range here is pretty narrow and I’m grabbing a handful of longs with a stop below 2078. Note that we’ve got overhead resistance developing again on the daily panel. So there is a good chance we’re going to screw around here for a while longer and shake out premature Santa Rally participants. I give long resolution a 40% probability here at best this week after all that [...]

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December 4, 2015

There Is No Room At The Bottom

In 1959 at Caltech, Dr. Richard Feynman presented the American Physical Society with his classic lecture titled ‘There’s Plenty of Room at the Bottom‘, outlining his vision of the future and the possibility of engineering microscopic technology down to the molecular scale. Feynman’s presentation has continued to inspire several generations of biologists, physicists, and chemists to this very day. Only in the recent past however, more than half a century later, are we beginning to harvest the fruits of his vision, as our scientific knowledge and technological capabilities are slowly encroaching into the microscopic world.

Unfortunately however it seems [...]

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December 2, 2015

The Slow Churn Continues

We continue in upside churn mode – meaning we climb one step up and then fall back three quarters of that – then climb again and fall back again a little. It is starting to look like a sideways correction here as the opening for the bears to drive prices down a little ahead of a Santa rally is diminishing rapidly with every session now. The medium term resistance zone near 2010 is proving difficult to overcome and I guess the strategy seems to be death by a million paper cuts.

As you can see there isn’t much activity beyond ES 2005 on the volume profile. The ambiguous remarks by Yellen earlier this morning seem to be interpreted as ‘no news is [...]

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October 26, 2015

Setting Back The Clock In Europe

Europe appears to have set back the clocks in more than one way over the weekend. In Portugal the leftist anti-austerity party won the election by a landslide but has effectively been banned from taking power by the incumbent Prime Minister Pedro Passos Coelho, stating that he couldn’t yield power to parties which oppose Portugal’s membership of the shared euro currency. He then invited the right coalition to form a government. So much for democracy in Europe – it appears we are back to good ole’ fascism. Given the ongoing economic situation in combination with the unfolding ‘migration crisis’ I may be sitting on a veritable powder keg over here in [...]

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Cognitive Bias Carousel
  • Sunk Cost EffectSunk Cost Effect
    The tendency to treat money that has already been committed or spent as more valuable than money that may be spent or acquired. Also known … more
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