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Cautiously Optimistic
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Cautiously Optimistic

by The MoleMarch 5, 2018

Not a bad start of the week as the E-Mini long campaign I took out last Friday, courtesy of our trusted Zero indicator, appears to have survived the weekend. Of course equity bulls are far from being out of the woods yet as it’s not the dead cat bounce that matters but the ensuing follow up. So color me cautiously optimistic for now. However once the opening bell tolls it’s time for more aggressive bidding to arrive lest things may take another (rapid) turn southward.

Here’s my entry by the way as I took it last Friday, again courtesy of the Zero which showed us a supportive signal in combination with a clean retest of VWAP. Now it wasn’t a super convincing signal either, just for the record. No strong bullish signal divergence and had it not been for that spike to the 1.0 mark I would probably have given it a miss.

So far so good however and with a bit of luck and duct tape we may be able to pull off this little scalp. In retrospect I should have dropped my stop a bit lower actually, preferably below the spike low near 2647. Let’s see if I get away with it, but it’s not a good idea to keep stops so tight in such a volatile market.

You may have already forgotten about our Bitcoin entry but it is still alive and well. Stop now advances to < 11090. Curiously BTC seems to be the most bullish of the major crypto pairs…

…Β with the exception of Moreno perhaps. Nice floor pattern and I was actually tempted to go long near 301 but then somehow missed the boat. If there’s a retest of the 100-day I’ll definitely be game.

Natgas is also still in the running – it’s taking its merry time however. Nothing to do here but wait.

Since the Mole loves you here’s a nice gold entry that may come into focus today: Long IF (and only if) gold manages to drop to 1322.50 and then paint a spike low. Stop would be < 1310.

More entries below the fold – please meet me in the lair:

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About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at the usual social media waterholes.
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  • CandleStickEmUpper

    Thanks Mole. Looks like it was a stop sweet overnight on the futures. Came right back up, which to me is short term bullish. Lets see what the morning session does.

  • Edgy

    Will be looking for new long entries in ES, I’m also cautiously optimistic.
    That title pic, however, does not say “cautious”.
    More like, “Somebody stop me!”

  • HD
  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Yeahhh…. been there before… a lot of people pull out those types of formations and try to match them to previous resolutions. But statistically speaking these formations can go many ways. Now I’m not saying you’re wrong, the current formation still looks bearish as fuck. What I’m saying is that history does not repeat itself – at best it rhymes.

  • HD

    to me it just seems like SPX sellers are in control. Maybe that ryhmes better w BTC than the charts. Either way we have VIX >20 so 4 singles are just as good as 1 home run. GL at the open.

  • Dyellowflash

    Shorted a little bit of Dow. Nothing really bearish on the price side, but i am looking to short for today, so 2 green 5m candles with nothing on the 5m zero warrants a bit of shorting.

  • Mark Shinnick

    We remain in a gradual volatility deterioration and its crushing could well happen too. That is the typical probability…just saying.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    High Yield,
    no edge. it’s just one of those things (for me).

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/1ae58007fd5cda049b10d4ba6a73264e831dfa458a7c8f8d412f190c49ef5fd4.png
    (I don’t like or do well in pennant, crowded ranges)
    -GG

  • Tomcat

    That is Batshit crazy!!!

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    I was referring to myself, not the pattern, but hey +1 to you for participation.
    πŸ˜‰

  • Mark Shinnick

    That’s fair enough. To my model the whole % is hate based – the origin of all practical machination insanity, or in other words, “run”, or in other words “ain’t goin to end well”. We are on-notice with that one…and we know it.

  • Dyellowflash

    mkt maybe moves faster than i can type, a good place to short is Dow 24460s.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    24,200

    EDIT: note the large weekly November candle move.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24INDU&p=W&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p91494220185

  • BobbyLow

    Batshit Crazy? Not that there’s anything wrong with that. πŸ™‚

  • Dyellowflash

    u have a pair of sharp eyes. Whats a good target for short in ur opinion? I am looking at about 1k dow points from here. if it goes down.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Dare say not…we are extremely fortunate…and relatively few persons have any handle on what trading is all about…must seem like alien stuff to some.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    I would tell you, but as like Mole, I have to be very wary.
    everybody has their own tolerances. Also, some like to get in early, some get in late, some like to add & accumulate.

    But I would like to throw in another chart to enforce the 24,200 line.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24INDU&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p49237658681

  • Dyellowflash

    Not to worry, the zero will earn its fees. So far, the short side is also not supported, i will see if it will try for the opening gap before sellers come in before i add to positions.

  • BobbyLow

    That’s for sure Mark. Every once in awhile someone will ask me how I do what I do. If I try to answer, I’ll usually get that “glassed over I don’t have any idea what your talking about look within the first 30 seconds. So now I just answer by smiling as I change the subject.

  • Mark Shinnick
  • BobbyLow

    It’s taken longer than it should have but I’m finally adjusting my reaction to 200 + point daily swings in the DOW. After the unprecidented almost 9 year run of a nice, neat and steady bull market, I think we might have reached a new sense of a “normal” market. Back when the DOW was at 10 – 12 thousand, 100 point swings were not uncommon at all. But with the DOW at 24,000, 200 + daily swings are the same in a percentage basis as 100 point swings were back in the day.

    So perhaps this is “the new normal” with just bigger numbers. Or perhaps I’ve just become “Batshit Crazy”. πŸ™‚

    So far so good on my Long Crude from Friday. But we’ll see how it goes as the day moves along. . .

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    You should remember, that 200 points isn’t what it was, like back in 2010.
    πŸ˜‰

  • BobbyLow

    Thanks for asking. I still need to use a cane to walk when I first get out of bed in the morning and I’m not too hopeful about the morning pain ever going away because I think it’s coming mostly from arthritis on my hip. I’ve been doing physical therapy for my disc at home as well as with a therapist twice a week. PT seems to have helped to where I can ditch the cane for the rest of the day after walking with the morning pain subsides.

  • HD

    $SPX (55) point rally off Friday’s low 2703. See if the sellers show up

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    You may want to try magnotherapy – yeah, I know it’s supposedly quackery but the woman who treats us routinely finds things that I knew I had trouble with and didn’t tell her.

  • BobbyLow

    Now long XLE via ERX.

  • BobbyLow

    Thanks Mole. I’ll probably try a lot of different things if and when conventional treatments fail to work. I can feel some progress at this point so I’ll keep my fingers crossed . . .:)

  • HD

    Nice trade Mole!

  • HD

    HWB last weeks hit 2718

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    ..double blind study. somewhat effective.

    http://online.liebertpub.com/doi/pdf/10.1089/acm.2005.11.681

    “Conclusions: Despite the small number of participants, the level of significance reached in the reduction of pain merits reporting. This is a pilot study to a much larger study of the same device as an analgesic in women with primary dysmenorrhea.”

  • HD

    VIX got hit 7%. Nice call Mark. That probably was the best trade of the day. I’m spinning my wheels looking for a ES short.

  • http://www.linkedin.com/in/sharondsessions/ Sharon

    When I try to explain debits and credits to non accountants, I also get that glassed over look. It has become my signal to change the subject as well. Sigh. To each their own thinking patterns.

  • Mark Shinnick

    What’s the plan for stenosis?

  • BobbyLow

    At this point it’s Physical Therapy to strengthen the muscles in the vicinity of the hips, lower back and abs.

  • Mary

    yoga

  • Mark Shinnick

    That’s a problem with “conventional treatments” …addressing effects, not often cause.

  • ridingwaves

    as we shrivel and get old, yoga is the key I believe….

  • http://www.linkedin.com/in/sharondsessions/ Sharon
  • http://www.linkedin.com/in/sharondsessions/ Sharon

    Buffett does not like some new accounting rules. A case in point.

  • BobbyLow

    LOL. I was an accounting major in college and a graduate teaching assistant in accounting on my way to getting my “Might Be Anything” (MBA) degree. I had fun tutoring Accounting 1 and 2 but not so much fun issuing partial credits on 50 or 60 ten page accounting exams. My accounting experience was only academic but I loved it.

  • BobbyLow

    Yes. I believe that Yoga can help this problem. Some of my PT involves a lot of stretching out repetitions which I believe to be a form of Yoga.

  • Mary

    look up a book called 3 minutes to a pain-free life, written by a PT.

    Read the reviews. I’m working and don’t have time to get into it. Just do it.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • BobbyLow

    I’ll take a look. Thanks.

  • BobbyLow

    I just ordered the book from Amazon. It was under $10.00 and worth a shot. Tks.

  • Darkthirty

    Yoga will in crease your libido, depending on the ladies in the session. Dehydration causes most of my pain currently. https://www.watercures.org/. got into this about 7 years ago and put on 15lbs of water in 2 days. BP/PR dropped, joints quit hurting, felt 10 years younger……..

  • Mark Shinnick

    Yeah, just reversed to short equities….very touchy stuff.

  • BobbyLow

    Sounds interesting. My wife drinks a lot of water without the salt though.

  • Ronebadger
  • http://www.linkedin.com/in/sharondsessions/ Sharon

    My Bachelor’s was actually in Math and Physics and then a short 5 year career in computer programming before I retired to be a Mom for 15 years. I ended up in accounting jobs because computing had gone from DOS to Windows during that time and no one would hire me in IT and I had run my husband’s custom building business as the accountant and tax person during the 15 years of child raising. Trading is a whole lot more fun than being an accountant. But, accounting knowledge is good during tax season.

  • Darkthirty

    We used saline for acute hypovolemia when I was a medic. I still fight to keep salt in my system. Nerves run on electricity, water conducts electricity. Blood gets thick and your heart is pumping mud, thus high BP/PR to keeps the system perfused. Synovial fluid is redirected to the blood to rescue the critical core system……pure logics

  • BobbyLow

    Math and Physics are an excellent background for management accounting and trading. And you’re right, “trading is a lot more fun” πŸ™‚

  • Darkthirty

    15 minute pump cycle

  • Julie

    Looking to re short USO at 61.8% retracement. SPX up into target approx. 2718 and lower cloud boundary per previous thread
    JULIE

  • ridingwaves

    PayPal Holdings Inc. shares are up 0.5% in midday trading Monday after it was revealed that the company recently filed for a patent related to bitcoin. The company’s patent filing was for an “expedited virtual currency transaction system” and was flagged by Bitcoin.com. Such a system could potentially speed up bitcoin transactions and be anonymous

  • Julie

    SPY volume today not justifying move Just saying
    JULIE

  • BKXtoZERO

    My sister is older and believes in this particular for of exercises. She sent me the DVD and at first I thought it was too geriatric for me but I followed along and it actually made sense and made me feel better. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zCvLPr-LmSc

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • CandleStickEmUpper

    Zero is starting to look bearish also. I can draw a line down the bottom right’s indicator

  • BKXtoZERO

    I just sent this to RW, check it out Bobby. Classical stretch, balance/posture etc, My sister is a big follower. I thought it was too geriatric for me but I did it and I felt better: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zCvLPr-LmSc

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Julie

    IMO just a dead cat bounce retracing 50% so far
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    50% is hardly *small*.

    “Wall Street term for a small, brief recovery in the price of a declining stock.”

  • Julie

    Hi GG SPX right up into target zone and pulling back. Let’s see further action and the close JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/c1993bd15cf42e4e62395e40ddf6af599aa9b3e77b46d01fe68132858ffdeeaf.png

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    median of the range {shudder}

  • Darkthirty

    Ralph says……………

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Darkthirty

    Ralph Nelson——-…………

  • Julie
  • Julie

    Great show GG The Honeymooners with Jackie Gleason and Audrey Meadows. One of the best comedies ever
    JULIE

  • Darkthirty

    a one anna two

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    a little before my time.

    You’re the Greatest Julie.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ho26bcKhU6M

  • ridingwaves

    so what is your number on spx for resistance? if it moves higher than your number do you believe it can go to 2900?

  • HD

    I like the chart. I’m just not sure what I’m looking at. What are the lines and candles created from?

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    It’s a new type of German Beer.
    πŸ˜‰
    https://www.investopedia.com/articles/technical/04/092204.asp

  • HD

    I’m a west coast hops beer guy. And the lines on the chart?

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    ema daily averages based on the 20. +/-

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    who are you talking to?

    based on a 2013 high, it *possible*. but Wow.
    I don’t think even captain boom has seen a skyrocket like that.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPX&p=W&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p78062666318

    if so the price would be a new high, with the RSI likely lacking.
    a divergence of dramatic signaling.

    the dollar would have to drop to fresh lows. IMHO.
    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24USD&p=W&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p30310839249

  • HD

    I’d like to see the EOD hare krsna candle.

  • Mary
  • Julie

    RIOT holding 10.15 support with a low today 10.25
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    USO,
    dam. I should just take the plunge and start riding this horse.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=USO&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p22032097523

  • HD

    SPX R I have is 2731 pivot, 2735 is 50DMA. Todays range has expanded from Fridays. Some would say trend day. I will be a seller at pivot.

  • Julie

    Hi HD 2735 is also the 61.8% retracement also
    JULIE

  • Darkthirty

    and 786 of 3

  • Julie

    USO strong resistance 12.68
    JULIE

  • Darkthirty
  • Tomcat

    I applaud the brave souls (including Mole) who went long:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kt2iXfYjXyQ

  • Julie

    Dark Thirty SPX It’s a 2 of C or a 1 -2 i – ii Not a waver but do look for impulse and 3 wave corrections
    JULIE

  • ridingwaves

    throwing it out there GG..
    its only 175 pts, just 5 days of today like gains….
    optimism…..where is it…

  • Mark Shinnick

    Well… this is not a forgone conclusion…could still easily be the correction retracement.

  • Darkthirty

    When the algo pump quits, the selling is obvious……..EWT died with the programs, it works on milk though!

  • HD

    Julie, Some things I use to help recognize impulses. FWIW always count abc down. That is a must. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/f1ab0e343ca562200c9cf7c77b53bf1c33baa33ebe46aad5c566740becf0ad2b.png

  • Tomcat

    Sure. but I am assuming “they” would lock in some profits at this point.

  • Julie

    HD Let’s see the close If SPX closes below 2718 not good for the bulls. IMO with today’s puny volume SPY looks like a lack of sellers and short covering.
    JULIE

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    How’s my crew? I was really under the gun with a ton of preparations ahead of a little trip I’ll be taking. It’s not very far away however so I don’t think it qualifies for the Mole Travel Put.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Exactly. But stop goes to break/even.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I can’t believe this just happened…

  • Tomcat

    Break/even??? It better lock in some Rrrrrs

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III
  • HD

    #yourwelcome πŸ™‚

  • Julie

    Doing great Mole. Covered shorts on Friday for some gains. Maintained RIOT long which is holding support in a post below. Waiting to re short USO.: UNP.and short SPX Hope you have a great time on the trip you are planning
    JULIE

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Honestly traveling always freaks me out. Something always blows up… I don’t have a choice unfortunately as Las Fallas here in VLC is about to kick into 3rd gear. A week from now it’s going to be soddom and gomorrha in the streets here.

  • HD

    I’m sorry for having to ask, you have a 60 handle runner on and you’re just going to go to break even? What am I missing?

  • Mark Shinnick

    Yeahhh !! Opportunity awaits πŸ™‚

  • Julie

    Just be safe Chief
    JULIE

  • ridingwaves

    ill give it a shot…

  • ridingwaves

    maybe I should rent your flat for a week while gone and participate in the festivities….

  • Julie

    Chief I certainly hope the girls behave themselves. We do certainly not want any debauchery
    JULIE

  • ridingwaves

    I guess I should have given up on that INFI trade….seeing some strong bullish action

  • Julie

    RW How about TRXC that I was watching and became distracted.? I posted many times TRXC Sheesh !
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    MuwahahahaHA.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Time. Check.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Wish I would have told you beforehand. Although I wouldn’t want you to dig through my underwear!! But if you want to come next year we have an apartment right below us you could use. It’s very nice and in the center of the center of all the action.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    You guys….

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III
  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I finished dinner not too long ago – didn’t even check – LOL

  • BobbyLow

    Thanks BKX.

  • BobbyLow

    Doin fine Boss. Just got back from PT and Crude was good to me today. πŸ™‚

  • BobbyLow

    LOL

  • BKXtoZERO

    Really…. I thought it was BS but it isn’t. Basically she has these ways to exercise all your muscles in a way that older or injured folks can handle. Her thing on balance and posture, setting your back/hips properly etc…. little leg muscle things in that stance. We don’t have to hit the gym like Mole and Scott and do excessive things, we can help ourselves in a smart way.

  • BKXtoZERO

    I just replied to Bobby too. It helped me. It is a way to exercise all of these different muscles without going overboard. The stuff on balance and correct posture right up front was helpful. we can’t all hit the gym like Scott and Mole but this is a careful/thoughtful way to exercise.

  • http://www.captainboom.com/ captainboom

    I’d be happy to join you. The noise from the mascaleta will drown out my snoring πŸ˜‰