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Caveat Ursi 2.0
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Caveat Ursi 2.0

by The MoleJuly 12, 2009

Since it’s summer and most of you rats fortunately have better things to do than to read boring trading blogs on your Sunday off I’ll be extremely brief today:

Bottom line: The trend is down – but most likely not before a scary head fake to sweep some bears.

Exhibit A: This is what everyone is talking about right now – if you are a trader that is. I’ve heard so much about the developing head and shoulders formation on the SPX that CNBC is starting to sound like a shampoo commercial. If it tingles – it means it’s working!!! 🙂

For you noobs or TA impaired – this is how these things usually play out on various time intervals (days, weeks, months):

  • Left shoulder develops on expanding volume.
  • Center head develops on either sustained or slightly diminishing volume.
  • Right shoulder develops on diminishing volume.
  • Drop through the neckline.
  • Often followed by a bounce and head fake (where we are now)
  • Followed by the final drop – usually the target is the inverse distance measured from the neckline to to the top  of the center head.

For a much more detailed resource on the head & shoulder tops pattern (and many others) point your browser here. This is a great site to learn basic and advanced charting and candle patterns – you even get historic performance statistics and some of them might surprise you. Suffice to say however that an H&S top is considered one of the more reliable technical patterns but with so many things in life, the devil lies in the details.

So, you probably have guessed where I’m going with this by now. And the best example for what I think might happen next week is actually right on the H&S top example used on thepatternsite.com:

Seems that a neckline breach followed by a head fake is not all that uncommon, is it now? 😉

But the plot thickens: Fujisan posted a really nice screen grab of the SPY option chain – if you missed her post, go back and read it top to bottom – it’s a really good one.

As you can see, the 88P and 90P have the most o.i. at this point – and 5 days before option expiration we should take note of that.

Flamboyant market soothsayer Joe Granville was famous for saying:

“If it’s obvious, it’s obviously wrong!”

In other words, by the time the average person recognizes something, it’s too late to benefit by the knowledge. There’s another expression which pretty much points in the same direction:

“What everyone knows, is not worth knowing”.

So, please excuse my overuse of colorful aphorisms – but, as a bona fide pain in the ass, certified megalomaniac, and genetically enhanced contrarian I can’t help but suspect that the big drop will only happen once a large portion of the hobby bears have been shaken out:

So, it’s fair to say that I am was wearing my orange colored glasses when painting this chart. Yes, green is not impossible and I’d actually give it 35%, but my expectation is that we’ll probalby see 8300 before we see 7,700 on the Dow.

Adding a bit more fuel to my argument is that we now finished a fourth week to the downside on the Dow and that is the maximum since the start of Primary wave c. So, chances are we are going to finish higher next week. If we don’t then it might give credence to the notion that we are in Primary wave {3} – but it’s a bit early to even think of that. And right now it doesn’t really matter – we are early in this down trend and even if it turns out to be the beginning of the next Primary wave we’ll get another opportunity to load up.

I’m not going to cover my usual momentum/trend indicators but didn’t want you to miss this money shot of the NYSE New Highs New Lows Index. Quite frankly, this thing is starting to look spooky – I have never ever seen anything like it. We are completely flat and converged on three different moving averages – the zero mark seems to be the roof and we are not dropping below it. Frankly, I have no idea how to interpret this – there are obviously two perspectives on this as we could paint higher or lower readings, depending on what’ll happen next. But right now we are in some strange limbo equilibrium zone – and to us traders it sure has felt that way in the past few weeks.

My expectation of the Dollar’s short term direction would play into the Orange scenario in equities. Again, it’s not impossible that this triangle breaks to the upside but the wave form at this stage would be ‘cleaner’ if we completed a 5th wave to the downside. Triangles very rarely form as 1st waves and thus probabilities are that we see 76 before we see 82 or higher.

We are again heading into OPX week and if you think last week was bad then you better suit up in your bulletproof Kevlar vest, at least during trading hours. The gyrations we had to endure last week are a clear sign that institutional traders suffer from advanced rabies infected brain damage and thus will be at their worst behavior.

Never leave home without it – hehe 🙂

Cheers,

Mole


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at the usual social media waterholes.
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  • molecool

    ¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨
    ¨°º¤ø„¸ S T L ¸¸„„ø¤º°¨
    ¸„ø¤ P L E A S E º¤ø„¸
    ¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°º¤ø„¸

  • KidDisco

    I love 'Caveat Ursi' messages.

    I remember the last time Mole posted one, I said to myself 'self, don't listen to Mole. He's a fucking idiot.'

    Over the next week or so, I found myself getting brutally sodomized by bulls. It felt good at first, but then I started getting sore. And then I didn't like it anymore.

    I've since learned to not get married to an investment thesis.

    Seller beware.

  • KidDisco

    full disclosure:

    I'm heavily long the market at these levels.

  • onorio

    What a great “brief” post mole!

    Thanks for your time, again. I`m glad to be one of those who have no better things to do than to read boring trading blogs 🙂

    A head fake till arround 902, match with my target of 1.4100 in EUR/USD in the next days. Lets wait to see.

    Thanks one more time.

  • ropey

    Now the only counter argument i have is that several blogs are now posting a similar thesis 😉 lol

    Anyway i agree, i think this plays out with a mini-bull phase, i suspect the banks will be the catalyst to shake it up 10-20 s&p points then we start to crumble again – however i'm not going into mega-bear territory – something that spooked the hell out of me, pull up the 20 yr SPX and draw a supporting trendline, oh look where we bounced off in march, uncanny, on top of this 'minor' correction i suspect the next stop is >1000 before the real dump occurs….but will see how it plays out..

  • charles_smith

    Mole, your megalomania is well-earned–you put it all out for us rats day after day and that takes guts and confidence. My sincere kudos to you. As per your thesis, I keep thinking about the players who've sold tens of thousands of puts–the ratios are 10-to-1 in many ETFs. Did these folks sell puts in order to lose all that money? I think not.
    Then put yourself in the shoes of a player who just sold massive quantities of puts in various ETFs. (Yes, this could be hedging, but players seeking hedges usually pick up OOTM options). Every bull and bear is staring at the same support/resistance levels, and if you can push the market above these and make it stick, the short rally will be considerable, as this is most loathed, distrusted. hated rally in human history.

    I think the market will bust through 905 SPX like a hot knife through butter and then take out 931 SPX just because the panic that will cause will be immensely profitable.

  • http://www.pacfreehotwater.com steveo77

    I do glance through the newspaper and even occasionally some TV just to keep my finger on the pulse of the “real world” even though price and volume data occupy most of my research time.

    However, this real estate “article” is a study in Socio-Economics, and it shows why the bubble has not yet burst, please read and comment. This by itself does not “prove” that there is much more room for human error due to greed, and that a significant top is near (or just passed in June), but it galvanizes my position — short.

    http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/2009/07/i-do-gl

  • http://www.finz.tv/posse bhbgrouptrader

    Mole…thank u as usual for the great work you do. I am thinking the most damage would be for lower prices from here with no 902 bounce since everyone i talk thinks they will have time to enter the market short after this bounce. Also if we look at a weekly chart of the ES you can see that we made a lower low last week and closed for the second time since March below the previous week's level. The springs that we saw last week failed to produce any kind of rally and to me that means we are seeing serious lack of demand for stocks. The only way to probe for demand is to go lower to find it. I am staying bearish with my puts in hand and will see the quality of the rally if we do get one before I cut them loose.

  • http://www.pacfreehotwater.com steveo77

    Mole, also thanks for the great and original work you do. It will help us bank coin.

    Anyone night trading the ES?

    http://screencast.com/t/ytRbmPhB0c0

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    Thanks for the update Mole. Yes its a Sunday night in summer and I can be out doing many things but Im reading your site.

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    nice charting. Not doing any night trading but I like where the ES is headed

  • http://www.pacfreehotwater.com steveo77

    Yeehaw !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! I caught that one.

    http://screencast.com/t/6nILuNrZfrv

  • PRSGuitars

    I was just gonna say — Wedge spilloff, commence. +1 for catching it early!

  • Coldwarvet

    Thanks much for that analysis. The AMD chart speaks volumes – “Breach, bear trap, stop sweep, and final drop.” Sounds like it is very likely to happen here.

  • http://www.pacfreehotwater.com steveo77

    http://screencast.com/t/moS3CZBv

    Waterfalls, often work

  • Keirsten

    ROFL Mole! Bio weapon of mass destruction? Youch! I have to hand it to you tonight- you never post krap, even when the audience is on the thin side. I've been charting all day because it's so blasted hot and humid outside.

    Here's a classic H&S chart on TNH:

    http://tinyurl.com/nuyh37

  • http://www.pacfreehotwater.com steveo77

    Fujisan, any FX plays on your radar screen for Sunday?

    Thanks for the great post.

  • Jigsaw

    This may be a sweet set up in BIDU. Anyone have any thoughts on a position before earnings?
    BIDU – http://screencast.com/t/hQU8tF5XsL

  • Osso

    Interesting gap above on SPX…..91 up to….92.00 approx….zone.

  • nummy

    http://www.screencast.com/t/Tz1PLf2h
    anyone remember the June 1 rally when the Coppock signal started sloping positive and everyone was orgasming all over themselves thinking we were in a new bull market? has been pretty much downhill from there. will be interesting to see how reliable this signal is later this year if confirmed.

  • Keirsten

    Nice setup Jig- I'm swearing off any and all earnings plays this round as I nearly got my face ripped off with RIMM last time. It used to be my hard and fast rule not to trade specific earnings trades 3- or 3+ around it, and I'm returning to the fold.

  • Skates

    Thank you mole!

  • http://www.pacfreehotwater.com steveo77

    Thanks dude, and the account balance thanks me too. Its at 870.75 and i have bought back half my short futures, ES moves in 9's and so I dont expect much below 869. Going to pocket some change and go have a red wine in the sun. ES is a cruel mistress…take the money and run.

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT
  • http://www.ambgtrading.com/ amgrant

    BIG move coming tomorrow. Action plan: pounce in the direction of strength – up or down, doesn't matter.

    http://www.ambgtrading.com/2009/07/emulation-is

  • Fujisan

    Is this brief??

    By all means, great posting, Mole. It's going to be a fun week!

  • TonyMontana

    +1 for your Avatar! 😉

    I love the Blackhawks and I think that next season may be their year, if not, they are very close to finally winning Lord Stanley…..which would then make the Maple Leafs the team with the longest losing streak without a Cup win 🙂

  • TonyMontana

    I would love to see that gap filled this week! 🙂

  • Fujisan

    I missed a good entry on Friday – I am trying to go long USD/JPY. I don't know if this will happen tonight but I'm watching it closely.

    http://content.screencast.com/users/Fuji-san/fo

  • Keirsten

    Oh goody, because I love to hear your voice. It's just beyond goooooood! 😉 You could say their was an incoming rocket about to hit my house and I'd be mesmerized.

  • http://www.ambgtrading.com/ amgrant

    You might be right. I hardly ever take overnight ES trades but tonight I really don't like the ES action. I'm short from 873.

  • http://www.ambgtrading.com/ amgrant

    Yikes, you caught that before I did. Out of that short trade mentioned above in your other post…THANKS!!

  • faafa

    As always, thanks for another great post, Mole! And the links and explanations for the noobs are much appreciated too.

  • http://www.pacfreehotwater.com steveo77

    Boatload O' Tickers – All with interesting patterns.

    Shorts and Longs
    TOS Easy to borrow list, volume, P/E, and Earning dates
    It looks like a leech festival to me

    http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/2009/07/boatloa

  • lilme

    Please excuse me, here in the Bay Area, the day was sunny, warm and totally delicious – we went out to play for hours, got tanned and ate some good food and slept long naps. More delicious. Thanks for all, Fuji-san and Mole, great write-ups.

    The results of my homework:

    Gold: NEM and AUY had double bottoms on the daily charts.
    Energy is the most oversold sector this week, and coal looks good.
    On emerging markets, India IFN had double bottom on daily.
    Education stocks look oversold with lovely large ATR: see STRA

    Of course, as my mother would say, consider the source (very newish trader)

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    yeah yeah yeah
    make fun of an old man 🙂
    Funnily enough people cannot understand what I say in Russian as well…my French was better thou …when I was 35 years younger

  • molecool

    Not sure about the fun part but it for sure is going to be educational.

  • http://www.ambgtrading.com/ amgrant

    I don't believe in crash calling but I'll keep repeating it until August, if there ever was a time for a 1-day event it's going to be in August. I've got this itch about this market…like it's starting to really speed up to the downside and sooner than most think.

  • Keirsten

    I wasn't making fun of you, silly! I never toss out random compliments unless they're due. 😉

  • Keirsten

    Let's hope we're all on the right side of the lesson plan.

  • Fujisan

    Hey, remember, I'm an option seller, who makes the most money on OPX.

  • http://www.pacfreehotwater.com steveo77

    ES could be a long trade here, i am in

    http://screencast.com/t/Jr82fUzgO

  • rhae

    I always have thoughts, right or wrong… It looks like it tracks with the markets in general. If it is going to start an earning run, usually 10 days to 2 weeks before earning July 22. Now should be the time. First call consenus 1.43 which is not to shabby. It has been consolidating near it's top zone for about a month… With markets poised for a move up it should/could be ok.
    If it does get a strong run, doubt if I would hold thru earning.
    note: Just a light look and no deep dd

  • http://www.pacfreehotwater.com steveo77

    Full moon in August after the Eclipse of the century?

  • http://www.pacfreehotwater.com steveo77

    It is worthwhile to look at more than just a ticker and a chart when you are dealing with indices and ETF's. You might be surprised at how they are calculated.

    For instance, I was stoked about shorting RTH, until I found out it was hugely Wal-Mart which would probably fare pretty well in tougher times.

    Check out ETF Connect, it is a good information source. One stop shopping for all your ETF questions. Sorry you have to copy and paste

    http://www.etfconnect.com/select/fundpages/etf_

    The USD index is also an oddball, please post on my BLOG, but basically it is only 6 currency basket and mostly Anglo based plus Japan.

    http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/2009/07/suspici

  • http://www.ambgtrading.com/ amgrant

    All I know is I feel something HUGE is brewing and will leave even the most bearish of bears in the dust. I think you have to be comfortable shorting weakness to some extent.

  • Keirsten

    Good call- I always check the top ten holdings too Steveo. You can find them really quick on Yahoo Finance pages as well.

  • dollar

    Thanks for the post Mole: very informative.

  • lester

    I believe RTH contains AMZN also, which burned me once trying to short RTH when AMZN was going up

  • Fujisan

    Wow, Lester is showing up on a weekend…

  • fademe

    Nice “brief” post 🙂 Not a word wasted and interesting/informative.

  • http://www.pacfreehotwater.com steveo77

    Fujisan,

    Charts and Coffee did a lengthy post on currencies…hey, even the Sensei (that be you) can learn from others. You may wish to check it out.

    http://chartsandcoffee.blogspot.com/2009/07/sun

  • http://www.pacfreehotwater.com steveo77

    I am long now, but volume is drying up (like watching paint dry) and the action is skethcy.

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    What I see in store for tomorrow: new July lows on ES
    Why? –> Posted Sunday morning: http://www.mylifemytrade.com/2009/07/plan-trade

  • molecool

    Wow, those futures are getting hammered tonight – maybe my suspicions were all crap and we'll get a good ole' sell off – this is starting to look pretty nasty: ES at 867 right now.

  • http://www.pacfreehotwater.com steveo77

    WTF? ES

    1800 futures dumped in the middle of the night?

    http://screencast.com/t/CVtPzKyTVT

  • Keirsten

    Yeah, and check out the oil futes.

  • Offtimer

    I was going to say the spy will be close to 97 on Friday.

  • http://www.pacfreehotwater.com steveo77

    ES Channel post that I did on Saturday Night– With Warrior Trader perspectives.
    Futures are twichy.

    http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/2009/07/es-chan

  • Fujisan

    Thanks, Steve, it's always nice to check out other blogs.

  • Fujisan

    BB is a nice long set up.

  • http://www.pacfreehotwater.com steveo77

    That didnt last long, now we have some wacky bear flag, henceforward known as the hockey stick to you Canadians, formed by one minute of super selling, which looks like manipulation to me….

    Why would any smart organization sell off so much so quick? 1800 futures…that aint chicken feed, its a hockey stick to the head.

  • http://www.pacfreehotwater.com steveo77

    I see lots of double bottoms that are failing lately….

  • Fujisan

    They''ve got nothing better to do, just like us.

  • Fujisan

    Yeah, but look at USD/JPY monthly pivot set up. This pair is coming down against a monthly support, not daily or weekly. This one is a much stronger support. It also completed a=c pattern on a daily.

  • http://www.pacfreehotwater.com steveo77

    Maybe fill this ES gap and then sayonara?
    http://screencast.com/t/YDOvCxbxyF

  • fademe

    The world has gone totally mad…WFC sues itself…LOL!!

    http://www.foxbusiness.com/story/markets/al-lew

  • http://www.pacfreehotwater.com steveo77

    Uh, like the collapse of the financial, political, and social systems? Spoken as a bear's bear.

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    10 quick points for me – not complaining 🙂
    http://screencast.com/t/5wjzzecJ3

  • http://www.pacfreehotwater.com steveo77

    Some day I have to figure out that counting system you use.
    I bet you count cards at Blackjack in Vegas also?

  • http://www.pacfreehotwater.com steveo77

    http://screencast.com/t/51S4R6mrLi

    Bea flag channel–kind of funny

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    they lifted my ban from”XYZ” casino since they started to use automatic shuffle machines 🙂

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    nice long here

  • ropey

    Nice catch, not sure if that option activity last week was related to such madness, will see how they open tomorrow

  • http://www.pacfreehotwater.com steveo77

    I hate that auto-shuffle, I like 2 deck casinos. But watch…Casino's will keep among themselves again.

  • http://www.pacfreehotwater.com steveo77

    http://screencast.com/t/032m9NUlq

    Looks wavelike on the tick

  • ropey

    From the yahoo forum, take it with a pinch of salt but..

    http://online.wsj.com/article/SB12474438

    “As of April, 36.9% of Pick-A-Pay loans were at least 60 days past due, while 19% were in foreclosure”…

    “Wells Fargo holds a mountain of Pick-A-Pays, having acquired $115 billion of the loans in its purchase of teetering Wachovia Corp.”…

    This does indeed get more and more interesting….

  • http://www.pacfreehotwater.com steveo77

    The markets are so darn interesting, especially when making money.

  • http://www.pacfreehotwater.com steveo77

    Forex never sleeps.

    I went in long USD / JPY, based upon the absurdity of it all, and of course contrarian EW writings of Fujisan. Also this neat little Triangle, and the recent double bottoms, with the triangle providing another instance of lower lows.

    http://screencast.com/t/Z5QqxDsO

    I'll post on my site also, with more details in case anyone wants to review

  • Blind_Squirrel

    One of Coffee's better posts.

    Check it out everybody.

  • Count_de_Monee

    Good morning rats.

    I see what appears to be a H&S forming on the 1 hour eurusd chart.
    Unlike many of the rats here I think the euro will fall (usd will rise) in the short term. Thus, I'm short the euro as of now.

  • http://www.pacfreehotwater.com steveo77

    Posted a “Small Boat O' Charts”, based on previous big spreadsheet. Enjoy. Comments here appreciated.

    http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/2009/07/small-b

  • onorio

    EUR/USD seems to be in a (d) wave of a triangle, sugesting more upside to arround 1.41200, than we would have a down move IMO.

  • annamall

    Hey Steve, I like your last kiss goodbye charts 🙂 Thats what I see and most of all feel. I know there thousands of ways to analyze charts, but it all comes down in the end to what do you really feel. Gut instinct if good in trading is a pricless tool to have! 🙂

  • http://www.pacfreehotwater.com steveo77

    Glad you like it. I think when a tech analysis and a gut check say the same thing (but you didnt let your gut draw the lines), then you have a good thing going, because after all the market is just the sum total of our collective human emotions.

    Nice Avatar by way, uh, yeah.

  • annamall

    I couldn't have said it better myself! 🙂 yes that what a chart pattern human emotion and that is predictably unpredictable. LOL

    thank and full disclosure that is me! 🙂

  • http://www.pacfreehotwater.com steveo77

    That looks like partial dis-clothing, not full disclosure 🙂

    I'm out…have to sleep. I did a bunch of posts this weekend, you may want to check some out

  • lester

    good morning anna, that is full disclosure. I am still 20% short.

  • annamall

    Hi Lester, 😀 hehehe, that is just a sexy poise, you see more in a bikini!

  • annamall

    I read most of them very good. I watch you! 🙂 have a good cat nap!

  • goldpackers

    Mrs. Bear II ( M. Whitney) ( behind Slope's Mrs. Bear I ) upgraded GS this a.m. Must know something for the ST. Turn today and expect last night was the low for a rally into 7-22.

  • ckeltner

    Yeah, shorts getting smashed in GS premarket, up $5 so far

  • annamall

    That is in essence a a bearish call on market.

  • thelefteyeguy

    wow…pm are positive now…

  • dollar

    On the Financial Times web page they have a link from the story on MW's upgrade to a previous interview explaining her rationale that is well worth reading.

  • katzo7

    Just a short post on what I see relative to the SPX channels.
    http://www.bostonwealth.net/2009/07/13/spx-500-

  • katzo7

    Hey sweetie, analysts are right until they are wrong, that is how it works. No one is right all of the time. Cutie Meredith's time might have come.

  • lester

    I am taking day off for fun. Have order in to buy SPY Puts if market gets up to 920 or so

  • annamall

    She is a bit full of herself isn't she? Power mad!! heheheh 🙂 MOOOOO

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    Closed overnight long /es position – two way trip about 18 points – Geronimo!!!!
    Taking day off today, might chime in during the day.
    Most likely will be going heavily short SPX 895 area this week for longer term to SPX 780 target

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    link?

  • Bricks

    I can't believe CNBC actually let someone give an actual view of our economic reality going forward. After Whitney they'll have to have someone refute everything she says. Go Meridth!

  • http://www.ambgtrading.com/ amgrant

    HUGE reversal in oil just now…careful

  • Hao Q.

    fujisan, just wondering if you look at 4H chart too. i often find there is too much fake breakout on 1H chart, especially on volatile pairs such as gbpjpy and gbpusd, 4H seems more reliable to me.. what about you?

  • annamall

    That will put a kink in this tape! 🙂

  • http://www.ambgtrading.com/ amgrant

    Ya, I'm out of longs. Don't care if this market goes up today without me.

    I'm looking for one last ditch effort to upside followed by a huge reversal.

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    looks like wave iii of v of c, as i suggested last night: http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/

  • Douala

    There was a small change in the McClellan Oscillator Friday, this has resulted in large price moves in the past, within a few days after it occurred. So look for a big move early this week.

  • annamall

    I agree, one last gasp 🙂

  • Keirsten

    POT breaks that lower TL I shared on Friday. No support until 77.80

  • annamall

    God I love my SHLD put spread, glad I kept 1/2 such a crappy store. (maybe a washer or dryer, but that's it)

  • annamall

    whoo hoo thanks K!

  • dollar
  • Keirsten

    Looks like SPY bounced off the upper level of the channel that began near 6/30.

  • http://www.ambgtrading.com/ amgrant

    This is what I expect today…watch out of if you are long!

    http://www.ambgtrading.com/2009/07/zig-zag-intr

  • http://www.ambgtrading.com/ amgrant

    Ok, here comes a break to new highs and then short the crap out of it.

  • Osso

    tks for the report..!!!!!!

  • molecool

    15 point reversal overnight – WOW! 🙂

  • annamall

    Nice AG! 🙂

  • Douala

    My pleasure… I will keep sending them!

  • innatedc

    I'm with Mole I think we go higher than that to shake out some more bears…..

  • molecool

    WOW – are you guys watching the NQ? Insane! 20 point drop from 1426…

  • http://www.ambgtrading.com/ amgrant

    Yes, I think so too…my best guess is 883 or so.

  • annamall

    I am fully short SPY and of course SHLD and only K for a long hedge. (50 Sept call)

  • dollar

    q's below Fridays low

  • perspective

    sector rotation – are you watching the financials.

  • Osso

    As posted on Friday: some Indexes already made LOWER LOWS THAN FRIDAY.

  • molecool

    ¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨
    ¨°º¤ø„¸ S T L ¸¸„„ø¤º°¨
    ¸„ø¤ P L E A S E º¤ø„¸
    ¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°º¤ø„¸

  • annamall

    AAPL rolling over GS way off its high for days, looking for bearish trade there. 😉

  • innatedc

    Actually I think even higher…..900-905….

  • Osso

    other Indexes NOT doing so, may generate positive divergence…..watching…

  • Keirsten

    QQQQ .236 FIB @ 34.50, below that support @ 34.06.

  • http://www.ambgtrading.com/ amgrant

    LOL well forget about new highs, can't get em all I guess.

  • Fujisan

    ES forming a H&S on an hourly chart.

  • annamall

    OK here is a lotto ticket for GS for July I am contrary by nature so here is a cheap GS July BF that huge open interest, so easy in and out.
    July 145/140/135
    Risk. .75
    reward @ opx 4.25

  • Keirsten

    We're only about a day away from a 20 under 50 EMA crossover on SPY fwiw

  • innatedc

    Watch for the 9:15 reversal…not buying this drop just yet….

  • annamall

    Les, are you glad your'e short now? 🙂

  • pricey

    just wait a bit, still thinking bounce here

  • bevets

    Patience grasshopper….

  • Osso

    USO: 31.37…50% retracement.

  • annamall

    Not today Inna, I think the market is going to fake out the bears and won't give them much chance to load up.

  • Keirsten

    If GS doesn't really fall apart intraday I may scalp it long for a 2nd wave of short covering going into the EOD and then bail. Otherwise just sitting on hands at this point.

  • http://www.ambgtrading.com/ amgrant

    Grasshopper? Student, always. Grasshopper, maybe a few years ago.

  • http://www.ambgtrading.com/ amgrant

    Ya, long from 872.5…I want to pounce on this market so bad.

  • molecool

    ¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨
    ¨°º¤ø„¸ N E W „ø¤º°¨
    ¸„ø¤º°¨ P O S T “°º¤ø„¸
    ¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°º¤ø„¸

  • VirginiaJim

    What a great post Mole. This work is above and beyond.

    Jim

  • TWPBrandon

    Loved the article. LT trend seems down in my opinion.

  • bevets

    It went back up, though……

    Go figure. I really appreciate your input – a Real Grasshopper

    Sent from Steve's iPhone.

  • Fujisan

    I love 4H chart especially for GBP/JPY set up. Trend is very clear.

  • Fujisan

    I love 4H chart especially for GBP/JPY set up. Trend is very clear.