Channels 4.0

UPDATE 10:48am EST: That’s right – it’s evil Mole and his channels again:

So, here we are firing on all cylinders and yet again we bounce off that channel boundary. Nice try bulls – but you really have to do better than this. As I’ve stated before – we won’t see Minor 4 untill we breach this channel with confidence – obviously.

UPDATE 12:22pm EST: Boy, it is quiet in here today. I personally don’t have too much to say until we see a change of trend. This channel is going to direct our actions until we get a change in weather – i.e. a sustained break out. After one month of channel surfing nobody buys those rallies anymore – on the contrary – it seems the bears are just using them to load up on more short positions. Just ask Eric 😉

Tape is feeling a bit erratic today. Almost like the bulls are all waiting for each other to make a move and most of the bears are so fat and happy after a month of sheer bliss they don’t care either way. I’d feel more comfortable if we could just touch 650 and get this wave over with. I don’t like the risk/reward ratio down here – channel or not. As I said – when we get that pop, it’ll be fast and brutal.

Gold continued its path to the downside – as hoped/expected. I’m actually a bit miffed as I forgot to grab those GLD puts on Friday and now we already dropped so much in early trading. Not sure I want to buy them here. On the upside – my SLV puts are doing well.

As a sidenote: I really didn’t sleep that well – this damn time change completely messed up my circadian rhythm. Not feeling 100% today.

UPDATE 2:00pm EST: Okay, the silence here today is deafening. Did everyone just fall out of bed or what is going on? I have to admit though: Equities = boring today. But you guys might know what they say about shorting a boring market 😉

Okay, let’s move on to something else:

Yen seems to be bottoming – there have been several attempts to rally but it keeps getting swatted down. This puppy is extremely oversold at this point and I’m thinking of dipping into FXY options – shitty bid/ask spreads or not. I don’t feel comfortable playing the futures (yet) as I don’t know them well. Any pertinent trade ideas welcome. Also, if you FX traders could chime in here that would be nice.