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Chartomania!
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Chartomania!

by The MoleMarch 8, 2011

I have been quiet for a few days – for one I was pretty busy and secondly there was simply too much noise coupled with little directional movement. When I find myself in a situation where I sense that the tape is gearing up to fake out both sides I prefer to take a step back, relax, and do nothing. It’s a good way to avoid getting too attached to your own perspective. Just shut your brain off – trust me – thinking about something without having access to sufficient information, or worse – being exposed to conflicting information, just leads to trading disasters. Of course our dark ego begs to differ and prefers to throw you into a mental feedback loop that keeps you guessing (and in most cases losing coin).

If you want to see the forest then take a step back so those damn trees don’t keep blocking the view.

Anyway when I started to poke around I started to pile up quite a collection. So, you better prepare your feeble attention deficit impaired minds – for it is Chartomania time!
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Charts and commentary below for anyone donning a secret decoder ring. If you are interested in becoming a Gold member then don’t waste time and sign up here. And if you are a Zero subscriber it includes access to all Gold posts, so you actually get double the bang for your buck.
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Let’s dive right in – here’s the NYSE A/D-D/A chart I have put up on occasion. No GTC fractal right now but that’s not all we use it for. I also look for prior precedence when it comes to assessing how sentiment swings may fit into the larger picture. What I’m seeing here is that the bears have made quite a bit of noise but have not been able to affect the tape much. Plus they are running out of juice.

The daily Zero seems to agree. If we are about to fall into a third wave to the downside then should we not be seeing a divergent signal? All I see is a sideways retracement.

Ole’ bucky snapped back a little – have the Dollar bears been psyched or is this a last kiss goodbye?

Even more long term this support line really must hold or it’s Weimar Republic time. But no matter which way it’ll go I’m sure this will get teased out a bit more. Nevertheless – this is a good spot for taking positions. The prior lows may get stopped out which is why I would put a stop below 76.

This chart is simply mind boggling – I have looked back 20 years and we are at historic lows in the gold:silver ratio. The black line is gold, which in comparison with silver has been unimpressive.

Here is silver on its own – this chart is very deceptive in that the current move thwarts the vehemence of prior short squeezes. I have previously stated that silver loves to squeeze the shorts and even I was not prepared to see it push to 36. However, what comes next is surely not a matter of if but when.

But the when is of course where the rubber hits the road. When I looked at silver against the gold:silver ratio that sudden drop looked very suspicious to me. So at a hunch I marked the re-emergence of Fed sponsored POMO auctions and it suddenly all made sense. Coincidence? I think not! It’s quite simple – and it’s of course what we have suspected all along. Systematic Dollar destruction by the Fed results in market dislocations – meaning equities and commodities are ramping higher. Gasoline in Los Angeles is now officially over $4/gallon – will it go to $5 or even higher? If that support line on the DXY is being taken out – you betcha!

More evidence of just the same. The inverted UUP (i.e. Dollar bulls) is leading equities – and thus far it’s not looking bearish. We usually see a divergence here first, so although I know that the boat is loaded with Dollar bears right now I have my doubts as to whether we see ole’ bucky snap back immediately. Maybe I should sell my car and get myself a Ducati.

I posted this CPCE chart last week – and it’s still clinging to that bounce line. Not looking very bearish to me. After having bubbled up for months, why are we not at 0.5 or lower?

The 20-day SMA version is in a similar spot – and again bodes the question as to why we have been pushing up (and not down) in the past few months. Could we be in side a big retracement that is simply not showing up due to Banana Ben’s printing machines? I just can’t see a monster drop when we are approaching medium term moderate levels.

My NYMO:BPNYA chart (medium term vs. long term momentum, albeit calculated differently) is similarly unimpressed. That buy line has been steadily climbing up and although we do have a little room to drop support should kick in fairly quickly should we actually fall from here.

The 10-day average of all SPX stocks above their 50-day SMA however seems to be falling slightly. Long term this may cause a bit of trouble – but let me show you something…

The percentage of stocks above their 200-day SMA has reached over 90%. And if you consider going short here then bear in mind how long it has taken in the past for a reasonable divergence to unfold before finally triggering a sell off.

So, has this been a narrow push higher led by a few symbols? Not really – the percentage of symbols above their 200-day SMA has been rather supportive. The circles indicate prior readings at identical prices.

Here’s the raw SPXA50 again but with a MACD slapped on it. Again, we are much closer to a bounce line than to a reversal line. Not that it has mattered that much in the past eight months. It’s all about the greenback in the end and as a results retracement are simply a lot more shallow, just like L.A. valley skanks. Bling bling!

Crude also has benefited from the Fed’s systematic Dollar destruction and if this channel line gives for good all hell will break loose in the commodities market. However, if it snaps back it won’t be pretty for anyone long commodities.

More short term here are the net-line buy/sell levels á la Chris Carolan. As you can see the tape has been careful about remaining within its indecision zone, with a slight up trending bias. I will continue to take contrarian trades with a stop triggering an inverse trade at the respective buy/sell zones.

Cheers,

Mole

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About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at the usual social media waterholes.
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  • OldChicago

    Hi there! What a day!

  • convictscott

    Hes back! Mole *nobody* does analysis like you 🙂 Take a bow

  • elliott_surfs

    dan aykroyd is the man.

  • volar

    Great Post.

    Lots of great charts that seem to say

    not much downside room, maybe forming a topping pattern…

    I like your style.

    LA valley skanks… sheesh

  • Joe_Jones

    This post by itself is worth the monthly sub fee. Thanks Mole.

  • volar

    * this is so spot on*
    From Breadth to sentiment to momentum… all the same.

    It is about what HAS NOT HAPPENED . WE HAD the set up for a huge 10% dip and did not get it!

    That in itself should make all of us question the downside limit here…

  • convictscott

    Id love to know how Prechter explains today… anyone still subscribe to stu?

  • ronebadger

    I don't read the articles, I just look at the pictures…

  • BobbyLow

    Excellent Charts Mole.

    $4.00 Gasoline in LA – soon to be in the rest of the country if this shit keeps up. We were at $3.50 in NC yesterday but I haven't checked today.

    We have a Dichotomy between a Bullish Stock Market and the Misery Index for Most of America.

    Where do we go from here? I don't have a clue and am powerless over what the market does. But if it's not to much to ask could we have the market either blow out to new highs or have a serious correction so I can make some fucking money?

    This is the way I'm set up and these little swings to either side just keep me neutral and in no man's land. But in the end, I think your implication is that this market is set to fuck both sides because that's what it does and I agree. Only this time around, I plan on being on the right side of the trade and not on a journey to Palookaville. 🙂

  • volar

    I dont need to read it bc i know what his answer will be bc he is biased

    he will say 2/22-2/24 was a motive wave 1 down of P3 and we have been doing an corrective 2 since. So there pay me.. so something like this

    http://content.screencast.com/

  • ds2

    Clear as mud

  • convictscott

    Bobby I'm suspecting you are exactly right, that both sides get fucked. To me the highest probability is what Volar and Moles charts suggest, just enough downside to suck in the shorts before burning them and sending this bitch into orbit.

    I'm not ruling out meaningful downside from here, but it has to get on with it and fast. We have burned off all the oversold momo in this sideways move and the bulls will be regrouping as we speak.

  • Clint

    Definitely. When you have multiple days in 2 weeks down triple digits(intra-day or close), and you can't even get one close below 1300…that in itself says there is a very powerful machine/guardian angel working for this market. Not good…but interesting.

  • convictscott

    My conservative trade plan for today. If we break above the es daily high 1326 get long with a stop @ 1305.75. Watch the market internals on open, if it looks like a bull trap (gap up on bad internals) exit longs immediately and take small sized position short.

    If we break the daily es low of 1306 go short, with a stop 1326.25. If we break the lows and go down, but do so in an unconvincing fashion (anything but a massive move) exit on close.

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    fast indeedy.
    the longer price futzes around, then it's just building a base, for launch.

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    he's banned in 49 states, and this forum.
    🙂

  • convictscott

    Its still a *much* nicer long if we get some downside first. But you trades the tape you get given, not the one you want – Volar

  • http://chartsandthat.blogspot.com/ ultra

    Talking of things that haven't happened, VIX is interesting I think.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui

    What happened to the buy signal? And then another thing that hasn't happened since then is that the bears have been playing it like the bulls have since March 2009 – see how the BB is widening without being breached…?

  • http://chartsandthat.blogspot.com/ ultra

    But OTOH, is that a triple bottom in $PLAT:$GOLD I see before me…

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui

  • convictscott

    Ultra! Long time no chat. I was just looking at that thinking that the door is still open, just a crack, for the bearish case. The market behaves a bit differently with vix @ 20 than it does @15

  • http://chartsandthat.blogspot.com/ ultra

    Hey, Scott. Yeah, been a bit out of it/away of late. One scenario to bear (ha) in mind is the B wave – we have been a bit triangular since 2/24, no?

    But forgetting all the EWT MM bias, the best bit of advice I read recently: “Anticipate not!”

  • volar

    Ultra- nice 2 c u back

    I will say however- how many 3x tops or bottoms exist in anything.. aka why i bot crude recently…

    I know of very very few and a quad bottom (base) is actually more likely- just food for thought

  • http://chartsandthat.blogspot.com/ ultra

    Hey – thx. Well, the obvious two are daily SPX last August and November for bottoms – can't think of any tops off the top of my head tho no..

  • volar

    gotcha- i was thinking daily. I have just found every time i bet on a triple (daily) i am wrong BIG.

    All that being said… a ratio is not exactly the same as price- so you may well be correct

    LOVE ur VIX Chart tho…

  • volar

    TOTALLY! the best part about waves is “anticipate not”

    however i use EW trends and charts for COUNTS only- aka he counts well… thats about it.

    http://elliottwavetrendsandcha

  • amokta

    Nice vix chart

    BY the way, what does plat:gold offer that gold or plat chart alone dont?

  • amokta

    ignore that – i was looking at spx chart!

  • convictscott

    Anticipate not! I love it. Agree, could easily be a B, as much as I hate that useless shit 😉

  • BobbyLow

    Scott, I'm still looking at the Retest Variation on SPX Weekly that you posted with the 2/27 Weekly High of 1332.28. We break that to the upside and maybe I adjust a little more Bullish. If not I'll play the hand I've got for now.

    I'm still looking at the VIX to adjust as well but that thing has been like herding cats over the last 10 trading days or so.

    Got to see how this plays out. We never broke the 2/27 Weekly Low of 1302.58 either so it still looks like “No Man's Land”.

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Thanks – I kind of squeezed one month's worth into one – LOL 🙂

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    LOL 🙂

  • amokta

    Good advice at 3:13 🙂
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v

  • OldChicago

    Here is my conspiracy theory. I think the market wants to go down. It was in plain sight. But, someone(s) want it to go up. The reversal come with a burst of volume all of a sudden, causing short squeeze everywhere. It almost feel like it permits selling, but not falling. How many reversal you see in the last few weeks happen a couple hours, or 30 min before closing? This action reminds me of early 2009. Remember PPT?. We are screwed by fat fingers, not the market. Take a look at the daily chart – Big red candle, then meltup. The pattern back in 2003-2006 was big green candle and small corrections. That why Elliot Wave isn't as easy to apply in this markit. We will be forever P2. IMO.

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    “It almost feel like it permits selling, but not falling.”

    Awesome statement – that is exactly the essence of what I tried to convey in my monster post.

  • skynard

    Check out copper, it is not buying into this rally. On the daily with a neckline @ 4.24 we have a nice H&S pattern developed (complex if another right shoulder develops). IMO, watch if copper falls off the plate market shall follow.

  • Joe_Jones

    Scott,
    Do inside day patterns work as well on VIX?

  • ds2

    COMP has a H&S too.
    Not my chart but it's a good one
    https://lh6.googleusercontent….

  • convictscott

    Joe, many people use regular TA on the VIX, and that includes people I respect and admire. However myself, I cant see any logical basis for it, and though I'm certain vix patterns exist, I see no logical reason why they should be identical to patterns on regular charts.

    Think about what an inside day is. The bears were unable to push it to new lows, the bulls unable to push it to new highs. Its a trench war of attrition, a stalemate. At some point all the bearish or bullish ammo will be exhausted and if there are only bulls left it *must* go up, and vice versa. Very similar to the rationale in triangle patterns.

    I'm not at all convinced how this logic applies, if at all, to vix

  • OldChicago

    And, /dx has a nice round bottom to it. Now it just needs to move above the waist line 🙂

  • Joe_Jones

    Thanks for clarifying. Yes, VIX is a strange beast indeed.

  • volar

    Potentially a big deal. I have been watching that as well.

    http://content.screencast.com/

    The only issue thus far is the Hammer today on channel. So maybe retest of high and then done? So prob ur complex scenario lol

  • volar

    Also some potential LT tops to consider on former leaders

    Brazil
    http://content.screencast.com/

    IWM

    http://content.screencast.com/

  • convictscott

    Scoring points off Prechter…. picking the low hanging fruit 😉

  • Hungry_Joe

    I have been trying some of the Brooks' stuff. From the little experience that I have, I think it is almost at the opposite extreme of a mechanical strategy.

    Going by what I see here, in the absence of market internals, it looks almost impossible to conclude if A TREND is on. To me that is now the question to answer. Almost the only question. I hope there is an answer.

  • convictscott

    Hungry, the Brooks stuff is total art and voodoo white man magic 😉 I like it, there is a lot of wisdom in what he preaches. Particularly the simplicity of his method. He looks at one chart, 5 min with one moving average and no volume. Keeps it simple and follows his setups. If he wasnt such a bad author it would actually be quite plain.

    The essence of it is hes trying to define whether its a range, a bull market, or a bear market, on the 5 min timeframe, so the question is *right now* is it trending?

    If its trending he is trying to buy 2-legged pullbacks in a trending market, particularly ones that pull back to a moving average.

    If its a range market hes looking to scalp 4 ticks from the top of the range to the bottom.

    He incorporates the same concepts I do, retests, etc to look for advance signs of trend changes.

    Its cool stuff, I really learned a lot from him

  • Hungry_Joe

    Yes, agreed, a hell lot to learn there. I am trying to give it a good shot.

    The problem for me lies in identification of Trend/Range/Bull/Bear etc SUFFICIENTLY EARLY enough without relying on market internals.

  • convictscott

    I feel exactly the same way. Having $tick particularly is an unfair advantage IMO

  • Hungry_Joe

    And he does fine even without that advantage.

  • convictscott

    A guy called bill luby has an excellent blog called vix and more. Its got good stuff

  • convictscott

    He is a very good trader, consistently profitable for 20 years

  • convictscott

    Bobby, the way I see it we there is a high probability of breaking out of the trading range today. Then we see if that break has the force that it *should* after such a period of consolidation.

    What I mean is that an upside break here *should* be bullish as fuck, and if it is anything but a type III trend day, it probably strengthens the bearish case. Ditto for a downside break.

    Whichever way we break (and I'm not predicting, I call the odds roughly equal) I'm going to be very suspicious indeed if its choppy and hard fought

  • tradem4alpha

    Think about how the VIX is calculated. It uses the prices of options of the nearest month (only when there are just 2 weeks before expiration, the calculation is switched to the second nearest month) and combines them using complicated mathematical formulas (including calculus) to obtain a number. So, VIX is a derivative of a derivative. So, the expression “VIX bulls and bears” is not quite correct, because you can't quantify them exactly (as in stocks: you know the short interest, or futures: open interest etc). So, TA in VIX is almost useless (I said almost). With the VIX, long term support and resistance are VERY IMPORTANT. But using different rules to predict day to day movements in the VIX is useless.

  • Joe_Jones

    Very good stuff. Thanks. “derivative of a derivative” now I understand better why it moves so fast and especially when a trend changes.

  • 5LeggedInsect

    It's the only TA book I ever read that was worth reading.

    Brooks has rewritten his original book in a 3 volume set, properly edited and more clearly written. It's finished but Wiley is not releasing it until October unfortunately. They have a release schedule queue and vol 1 has October 2011, with the other 2 volumes following a month apart each.

    For his original book, if you aren't doing so already, the only way to really read it IMO is paragraph by paragraph, and then summarize each paragraph in your own words in your notes. Then memorize your notes. Also you'll need to read it multiple times because he uses his own names for concepts that he doesn't explain until later in the book so the first read is very confusing.

  • Joe_Jones

    Just discovering it. Good stuff indeed.

  • Hungry_Joe

    Oh, I thought it was coming out in April. I am onto my Nth read now and having gone back and forth, at least understand the jargon for his concepts. Still, too tough, but worth trying. But I think I will be getting a good hang out of it at the end of it.
    Still, the key thing still unanswered for me is the EARLY IDENTIFICATION of Trend/Range etc purely based on price action. Maybe I assign too much to it, maybe not.

  • volar

    FYI sentiment on bucky this am – 31.% bulls.

    http://content.screencast.com/

    Jives wiwith cot

  • amokta

    If the $$dollar$$ strengthens, then conventional wisdom has it hat stocks will fall
    -but could stocks still resume their bull run, despite dollar strengthening somewhat

  • volar

    I love correlations, but honestly, i feel that this will hurt commodities, which as of late have been tick for tick – aka oil up has been bearish equities.

    Correlations are what they are, but honestly, i feel this one could be a shocker… or the $ is no longer risk off here- it is risk off Commodities, which is now risk on stocks.

    OIL is a game changer when Gas is >300

    Now maybe that just squeezes equites one LAST move and we top, but i think a bottom in the US$ may be bullish very short-term given OIL's bullshit move

  • volar

    BEARS… sorry more data to beware off..

    TRIN (terrible sell signal/ decent buy signal) is screaming careful. This is a normalized trin /inverted

    http://content.screencast.com/

    OK and this jive with mole's momentum. Still no divergence on my “other” TRIN aka newhigh/upvol / newlow/downvol

    http://content.screencast.com/

  • ds2

    I think Ben can prop this up till Fri. No POMO on Thurs. so no new $ coming in Fri. New schedule comes out Thurs too. Is there any available data on how and when the $ comes into the market once the auction is over?

  • raised_by_wolves

    Precious metals to equities gapped up and started moving down. This could be a gap fill or worse. I've hedged.

    http://content.screencast.com/

  • jigdaddy

    RBW, does this mean gap fill to highs or yesterday lows? thnx

  • Joe_Jones

    We probably touch the bottom of the wedge again today. If and when that happen let's see how high and fast we bounce up.

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    todays daily so far, is an inside candle to yesterday, which is inside to day before.
    freaky.
    sit back relax, enjoy the ride. (do nothing)

  • Wave_Surfer

    Have we already hit the low for the day and now heading towards 1330?

  • amokta

    In my opinion, indecision favours the Bulls (remember bullishness is the rule)

  • volar

    send me a link to this dude's book please

  • amokta

    anyone got a zero opinion?

  • raised_by_wolves

    So far, my ratio is holding above the MA(20) on the 5 minute chart. I was speculating that this gap between yesterday's close and today's open would get filled by my ratio. Maybe, maybe not.

    http://content.screencast.com/

  • jigdaddy

    gotchya thanks for the chart and explanation

  • http://pulse.yahoo.com/_QQ6RJGFA7GJWZEW77TXBZASOHQ Ashish

    Tag 1328.5 and then retrace a bit into close.. for gap over 1334.50 tomorrow.

    OR even more evil is to close near HOD at 1325.5 and gap over 1334.5 –> this will fuck ALL the shorts… Then we can go down on Friday

  • ronebadger

    right this second, you can draw a downtrend line from 9 yesterday. Mole, please draw you line in there as you see fit.

  • BobbyLow

    FWIW, even though ES crossed above VWAP for awhile and is now flirting with and crossing back below, Internals have been weak as Decliners have been leading Advancers and Down Volume has been Leading Up Volume All Morning.

    But of course it's early yet.

  • Hungry_Joe
  • amokta

    Im staying long, even if i go broke – whats important to me is to be right, not the making money 🙂

  • volar

    thx mate

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    or go down NOW…screw the bears and the bulls..

  • OldChicago

    spoke too soon? This is more thrilling than SIX FLAGS.

  • raised_by_wolves

    What the fuck!?!

  • skynard

    2 yr aniversary of Bull market, Hummmm? Let's go close some gaps!

  • OldChicago

    If you are CEO of the trading firms, what do you think of the wild swing? This feels like high-stake betting, of the Roman Coliseum style.

    Oil is at $105. It was never any peak oil brought it to $120 back in 2008. It is all hypes. If equity is near 2007, oil has a way to go just yet. You think the Arabs can get their act together and influence the price? What happened back in 2008 when oil is rallying? Do they do anything construction for the good of the world? Arab's sovereignty are being challenged, peacefully for now.

  • Wave_Surfer

    hehe… That's right!

    LOSING!!
    I am a rock star from pluto!
    LOSING!
    I have the blood of an insect flowing through me!
    LOSING!
    They picked the right person to pick a fight with. I can't win! I'm not a Warlock!
    LOSING!

    Special Thanks to Mr. Sheen

  • Wave_Surfer

    This is my very first day as a paying customer. I am trying to make sense of it, but my thoughts get whip-sawed just like the price.

  • amygdala7

    POMO fired up?

  • BobbyLow

    LOL, That comment probably woke Scott up from a deep sleep. 🙂

  • BobbyLow

    There are some definite parallels with 2008 including Speculation up the Wahzoo. Except without room for the Fed to Lower Interest Rates further.

    Ah but I digress. . . . 🙂

  • OldChicago

    Q's touched the support at ~56.70 three times on the intra-day chart. The fourth time may just punch through. Naz has been weaker than other index. It's either turn or other indexes follow suit. This is a murky water we're swimming. Good Luck all.

  • amokta

    Just frustrated with the tape!

    -anyway, from 18th feb, we seem to be at the pointy-end of a triangle on Spx – is there any evidence to favour a break one way or another

  • ds2

    At this moment I see a lower high in price w/ a higher high on zero lite. That would = divergence to the downside. BUT the signal is weak overall.

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    Silver cracking? 8 ht chart

    http://www.screencast.com/t/yE

  • Joe_Jones

    Let see how far down we go now

  • raised_by_wolves

    I'm out of my short short silver (effectively long). I don't know if silver has topped or not, but it looks like there's a potential retest variation sell setting up on the daily.

    My precious metals to equities ratios is looking ugly on the 5 minute chart.

    http://content.screencast.com/

    And silver to gold has multiple tops and retests that fail to move to higher highs on the five minute chart.

    http://content.screencast.com/

    So, I'm out.

  • raised_by_wolves

    I would have liked amokta's comment if he had a wink face. That'd be good parody. If he's serious, he will regret it.

  • fisheggs

    Copper is sick as fuck.

  • raised_by_wolves

    Possibly.

  • volar

    copper.

  • skynard

    not sure about how everyone else feels, this action is very indicitive of a top IMO.

  • Joe_Jones

    just reached today's top TICK

  • raised_by_wolves

    Mole and Volar have evidence that there may be a break up or at least not a break down for equities, right? Why not wait for a buy signal though?

  • raised_by_wolves

    Copper on the other hand looks and feels like it is going to hell.

  • raised_by_wolves

    If your frustration with the tape is causing you to make emotional mistakes, why don't you stop trading?

  • Joe_Jones

    Parabolic move in the last 15 min SPX candles + TICK divergence: looks like an exhaustion move. Well, I don't buy it.

  • Joe_Jones

    We touched the top of the wedge. If bulls can't brake it now watch out below.

  • Rightside_ot_trade

    yeah the volatility seems to come with tops
    also seems that if the bulls spent all that ammo and can't breach yesterday's high
    then further down has higher odds

    we could also paint a second inside day coming off last Friday's high

  • volar

    http://content.screencast.com/

    I hate to say it, but it is acting as it should.

    MY EW says 1360

  • raised_by_wolves

    I didn't even know who Charlie Sheen was until five minutes ago when I finally decided to Google him. Now, I recognize him from Platoon and Wall Street.

    This past week, I kept seeing his name over and over again in comments here and on Zero Hedge. Why is there a smear campaign against him? Is he another scapegoat or a distraction from what's really going on out there like Tiger Woods was? I mean, when a story that only deserves five minutes of air time gets a month's worth, I assume that it's a diversionary tactic.

  • Joe_Jones

    We got shooting star on the 15 min SPX, bullish hammer on 15 min VIX, ZL back to zero. What else do we need? Oh yeah, we still need RG64 calling the market to go to new highs.

  • BobbyLow

    You could be right. But on days like today, I'm happy to be maintaining what's left of my sanity while watching the Pendulum Swinging with no harm, no foul within my account. I was up a little while the Market was down and am up a little currently while the market is trying to get back up.

    Now, if it could only decide which direction it wants to go in for more than a few hours. A strong move in either direction will work for me. But of course the Bear in me would rather see some reality come into play within this Federally Pomo'd Market. But I think that might be too much to ask.

  • Wave_Surfer

    It was so wrong that practically every letter of that post was the opposite of good.
    It is for that reason and because it was Amokta that posted it, I feel confident it was just a hilarious parody.

    I don't think he could have written anything that could have been more wrong, which is why I thought the only competition for greater insanity could have possibly come from a parody of Sheen.

  • amokta

    Didnt realise difference between wink face and smile 🙂

    Anyway, i have spx longs doing ok from near low of day (actually was short but reversed for scrath short trade)
    This time i will put a stop-loss at break-even for longs, as last reversal was dangerous!

  • raised_by_wolves

    Thanks for the scenario.

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    nice chart

  • amokta

    agree copper looking bad (as in bad!)

  • http://futuresrhythms.blogspot.com/ Scrillhound

    For the 133 channel extension fans… I know I shouldn't long term chart futures, but idgaf…

    http://content.screencast.com/

  • Wave_Surfer

    Looks about right to me.
    We will see.

  • volar

    that *exact* unbiased scenario made me $$$$ in live cattle futures this am. Pennants are high prob. trades near tops IMO, bc bears always get squeezed and the bulls get excited and the pennant measures are great sell targets.

    So the pattern is both bearish and bullish 🙂

  • volar

    not my chart…I never take this guy's opinion- just follow his count

    http://elliottwavetrendsandcha

    He was the first to call Pretcher out on his biased count, however.

  • amokta

    Inside (edit – not double) period c/o tuesday – so edge if we break tuesdays high (or low)?

  • 5LeggedInsect

    What's your motivation for wanting to know early? For Brooks style scalps the opening range in the ES is big enough for scalps in both directions.

    If there was an easy way to tell we could all just enter at the market on the open and exit on the close, but if you're a good scalper you'll probably do better scalping in both directions early in the day and leaving swing portions on at breakeven, than betting on early assumptions about what the ultimate trend will be.

  • Wave_Surfer

    All of that may be true, but his own response in the public was so off the chart extreme, he has been his own SNL satire of himself already. Of course, SNL was still required to do a satire of it. It is like a hot new skit from SNL only beyond all belief it is real. A lot of people are having a lot of fun laughing at him, but that doesn't mean it is just a distraction because the people do not need a distraction. It is not the case that if Sheen was not making the news that people would be more upset by what is going on around them.

    I also think that for a large number of people, they have never seen a more extreme expression of true insanity (as opposed to acting insane) in their entire lives, so it is like a fascinating car wreck they can't look away from.

    And he is so deliciously over the top with his insanity, he keeps coming out with sound clips that go viral on their own!

    It is not every day that the highest paid actor on all of Television goes to this level of certifiable while at the same time coming up with a library of awesome sound clips.

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    there goes Mole's strippers
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/busi

  • OldChicago

    There lies P3? One think? If middle-east goes out of control… Look around the leaders in the world. Are Obama, Cameron, German, Wen a good mix for fixes?

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    cattle futures!?
    I thought you traded in hairy pigs.
    😉

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    ditto. “not guessing” is such a relief.

  • raised_by_wolves

    Do you have any scenario for silver? I may have gotten shaken out by a corrective wave. I kept seeing lower highs on silver and the ratios but there hasn't been hardly any bearish follow through (yet anyway). On the daily chart, today is an inside day so far. On the 1 hour chart, there is an inside candle. Also, the BBs have been narrowing. Sellers have been unable to push BBs down.

    http://content.screencast.com/

  • Joe_Jones

    LMAO!

  • raised_by_wolves

    Glad you were able to eat pig while trading cattle.

  • volar

    honestly I want to go short that market, but it is still in Falling Knife mode…

    But i will consider only when the obvious trend is at least broken- then on the retest i would *love* to short

    http://content.screencast.com/

  • OldChicago

    Anyone see my brain? Dropped it during this morning roller coast ride.

    Seriously, VIX is acting like a toddler or a nut. It's almost like crying in one minute and laughing next.

  • OldChicago

    Right. Got more downside to go until support.

  • volar

    LOL Honestly the only Liquid Futures in AG i dont trade is Lean Hogs.

    Trade LC, C, S, W. I generally dont trade the softs (CT,KC, SB,OJ) in NYC- just not enough time- rather trade FX in CHI. I was told when i was very young and first started trading… futures in NYC are a good way to get eaten alive- just stay with CHI.

  • raised_by_wolves

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/new

    Honestly, Charlie Sheen sounds like a bankster doing “God's work.”

  • volar

    Wild day. I dont chart the VIX- but just look at this crazyness!

    http://content.screencast.com/

  • raised_by_wolves

    The market probably will go higher next week.

  • Rightside_ot_trade

    I see that RTV sell on the Daily also
    In DeMark terms, /SI has 3 consecutive Sell Setups in the Daily (counts to 9), meaning incredible momentum; not seen very often
    http://screencast.com/t/ezoZxn

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    (GG whispers, PMS sounds appropriate)

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Watch the March 1 candle.

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    ping pong anyone?
    those gray zones are created by Quarterly Pivots.
    http://tinypic.com/view.php?pi

  • DarthTrader

    Silver still looks like it wants to make another high. In my experience Silver is a very manipulated market as such it normally ends it's runs on a spike high or spike low thus stranding late comers who have to cover and fuel the move.

    While I am long and short Silver . . . I'm currently a bit more long

    Also worth Noting March 18th has been a sell off day in 2009 & 2010

  • raised_by_wolves

    If the RTV sell fails, it may be a great long, eh? Maybe it could do 4 consecutive sell setups!?!

  • volar

    not than any off you care, but Live Cattle are trying limmit! Squeeze.

    BANKING serious COIN TODAY

    Dont fight the tape.

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Travesty…

  • raised_by_wolves

    Options traders, how does this trade look assuming SDS can hit 17 if SPX is currently in a wave 4 and does a wave 5?

    http://content.screencast.com/

  • raised_by_wolves

    BobbyLow, what do you think of my June vertical and single combination?

    http://content.screencast.com/

  • ronebadger

    I'm a little fuzzy on the significance of an “inside day”….any help?

  • amokta

    Not all of us are farmers !

    p.s. other than futures, are there etfs (i think there are)

    the problem with agri/softs etc is that good moves pay huge, but potential equally there for bug losses – i assume you only take the occasional set-ups with high probab (and not just charts – you look at all that net hedgers/spec/comercial/retail stuff!)

  • jigdaddy

    how is one suppose to read this? im not an option trader but would like to know what this graph is saying..is it giving you an alysisis of what your option would be worth at a certain period of time if the security hits strike price?

  • volar

    Dont need to be a farmer… the tape is the tape and that pennant measured at least 1 limit up day!

    No need for bias… prob turn around and go short if she goes up 2 more LOL

  • raised_by_wolves

    Convict Scott: “Think about what an inside day is. The bears were unable to push it to new lows, the bulls unable to push it to new highs. Its a trench war of attrition, a stalemate. At some point all the bearish or bullish ammo will be exhausted and if there are only bulls left it *must* go up, and vice versa. Very similar to the rationale in triangle patterns.”

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • ds2

    Glad someone is making some $ today. Nice job.

  • raised_by_wolves

    (1) The flat part of the red line is at -775. That means the maximum risked is $775. (2) The white line crosses zero immediately if the price moves down from 21.XX toward 21 and lower. That means the options gain value on any immediate drop in the price of the underlying. However, (3) the red line crossing zero shows that the trade only breaks even by expiration if the underlying is below 18.XX. (4) The trade starts getting good below 18, and it's like drinking Charlie Sheen's tiger's blood below 17. (5) If the underlying starts moving up instead of down, the trades starts losing money gradually and bottoms out, again, at -775.

  • volar

    of all the markets… cattle…. sheesh. Looks like she will be up almost limmit after hours- in which i will prob sell.

    Funny thing is i cant wait to turn around and go short… pennants are reliable tops.

  • http://futuresrhythms.blogspot.com/ Scrillhound

    commods have been killing me. I have a small biz where I often end up paying spot for winter/ spring wheat/ coffee, and QE obv has fucked a lot of folks that didn't 'hedge'. High quality green Kenyan coffee has been going for $10/ lb at auctions before export, etc which is just insane. On the bright side, over the past few months I've embraced POMO with open arms, so trading is good.

  • raised_by_wolves

    That and the upper BB(20,1.0).

  • ronebadger

    thought so, thanks!

  • jigdaddy

    RBW, thanks so much. very easy to follow..

  • ds2

    Those trading on the Inside Day should already be short from the break of the low from last Fri. Anyone in on that trade? It has not stopped out.

  • raised_by_wolves

    One of the reasons why I think the probability favors SPX experiencing a corrective right now before a move higher soon is that while the lower BB(20,1.0) keeps getting violated, there have been no follow through to push the price action down to the lower BB(20,2.0). What does it say if bears can't even touch the lower BB(20,2.0)?

    http://content.screencast.com/

  • raised_by_wolves

    Unless there is a hell of an end of day ramp or sell off, today will probably conclude as a second consecutive inside day. Tomorrow, bulls probably only have to push the price above the MA(20) to trigger a squeeze if you ask me.

  • volar

    ISEE at 154

    154 i repeat 154

    154 does not lead to flash crashes folks- 350 does.

    I say pick ur battles wisely.

  • Rightside_ot_trade

    if it did go so long 'uncorrected'
    it may then find itself on the express elevator

  • raised_by_wolves

    I haven't touched equities in a long time so didn't take that trade. If I had, I would have moved my stop down to a prime number just above yesterday's high. If today closes as another inside day, I'd move my stop down to a prime number just above today's high. That's me. Do you remember when Scott gets out of trades if the trade doesn't start making money but doesn't get stopped out? Three or four trading days?

  • volar

    also re-posting this 16 YEAR yes 16 year chart of TRIN

    http://content.screencast.com/

    Caveat Venditor!

  • raised_by_wolves

    No problem!

  • raised_by_wolves

    You're welcome, jigdaddy. Hey, you're an avid fisher, right? Question: Calorie-wise, how practical is it to live off of fishing?

  • jigdaddy

    sorry RBW wouldnt be able to tell you…only fish every now and then, mostly when im visiting friend in the NW…so definitely not a pn expert

  • raised_by_wolves

    Given that a flash crash is unlikely, can you come up with a more attractive bullish options play than mine (vertical and single puts on leveraged short ETF shown below)?

  • Wave_Surfer

    I read this to say we are ready to have a multi-month long snap back rally any time now.
    Is that right?

  • volar

    I have to think about it- but BOBBY would know right of the top of his head.

    RBW the VIX is moving like a rabbit on some hooker's cocaine. This makes option trading tricky.

    I suggest going long ES and selling calls at your target price. Simple, but yet to the point.

  • convictscott

    retest of DX today 🙂

  • volar

    YES. i will trade accordingly tom.

    http://content.screencast.com/

  • convictscott

    In prison for a while I refused prison food (which is revolting), and ate canned tuna 6 times a day instead. I did this for 545 consecutive days.

    Honestly, I think you'll get sick of fish 😉

  • raised_by_wolves

    Thanks Calvin!

  • volar

    Not sure- not trying to predict… but that does not make be bearish…

    it is a terrible sell signal, but decent buy signal. It may be a long-term buy, but u never know.

    We are in a bull market… I refuse to fight the tape with this going on!

  • raised_by_wolves

    “like a rabbit on some hooker's cocaine” – LOL

  • ronebadger

    The day before the flashcrash (5/6/10) the Equity ISEE was 139. On 5/4 it was 187. The day of the flashcrash and the 2 days after, they were in the 130s. We have already seen 300s this past Dec/Jan. Volar, what's your point?

  • convictscott

    Softs are very good markets to me, although I get eaten alive with slippage, and have learned to use targets rather than trailing stops

  • http://futuresrhythms.blogspot.com/ Scrillhound

    fwiw I had backtested some very brainless TA systems a while back, this one being 20/50 cross on 6hr NQ bars. Long signal triggered last night at 2330 w/ long target of 2380, stop at 2280. r/r 1:1 (risk 50 to get 50) and now we're below the entry by a few pts. looking at the 6hr bars, there's some large tails there pointing to upside. fwiw I'm playing it via options since so far I tested on a fairly small sample size and plan to scale out if possible to let house money reach the target.

    http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-37h0

  • jigdaddy

    CS, are you still short ES?

  • volar

    U are correct, but the LT moving average was much much higher and the CBOE equity was in the toilet.

    What i am trying to say is that many many sentiment measures are not saying sell and we are in a bull market.

    I am never a bull or a bear- even tho i think this thing is worth 666

    I just think the downside is limmited here- see my TRIN comment/chart below

  • volar

    Here is a 15 day ISEE… it has come way way down and we will be at a buy signal on the bollinger very soon.

    http://content.screencast.com/

  • BobbyLow

    RBW, I just got done painting a ceiling at my house so I just took a look at your setup on SDS. What I couldn't see is where your BE points were and if you had BE Points on both sides. Also, you had Theta Burn at around -6.50.

    I just took a quick look and put up a Short on SDS on the TOS Analyzer and fooled around with April ATM Calls as Protection. Take a look at a Ratio of Long 3 April 22 Calls to 125 Shares Short.

    Your Profit Line just bearly scrape the 0 Line and you can make money both ways. Of course if the stock stays at 22 between now and OP EX in April you would stand to lose about $300. (But you should have made adjustments so this doesn't happen) And Theta Burn is about 1/3 Less.

    Anyhow you might want to take a look.

  • raised_by_wolves

    I'm so sick of eating store bought chicken. That's why I'm thinking of learning to fish. I wouldn't be doing it as a sport or for leisure. I'd be doing it for dinner.

  • ds2

    I don't recall.

  • ronebadger

    Watch it with that 666 talk! Scarey, in more ways that one…

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    It's rather simple badger boy – an inside candle in most cases represents a stale-mate. Two sides are struggling for dominance but neither is able to push the tape beyond respective inflection points. Thus it leaves the door open for either side to take over – which ever side manages to get the upper hand will enjoy an accelerated release of pent up momentum. I am not sure that is the best description you'll ever find but hope it at least makes sense.

  • volar

    I just dont have the time. I go insane trying to do all of that. But i find slippage in AG all the time

  • convictscott

    ¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨
    ¨°º¤ø„¸ N E W „ø¤º°¨
    ¸„ø¤º°¨ P O S T “°º¤ø„¸
    ¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°º¤ø„¸

  • amokta

    Out of DRN & UPRO – made 1.5% and 0.5% return on capital
    (another successful day at Goldman Sachs – when do i get my bonus?)

  • raised_by_wolves

    I played with your idea, and the risk management is great, but the potential reward isn't enough for me.

    My trade idea breaks even way down at 18.50-ish. It has no break even on the other side.

    I'm going to play around with Mole's sell ITM, buy ATM, buy OTM idea and some other ideas and see what I can concoct.

  • amokta

    Hope it works out, others swear by it 🙂

  • volar

    this rally has been nuts. My family is in the commodity business as well. I have never eating more margin calls heding short, and never made $$$ like this hedging long.

    NUTS

    but i spec for a living, so i guess it all averages out LOL

  • Hungry_Joe

    Maybe I really don't clearly get it, but the way I am trying to use this method is not for scalping but to just a take a couple of trades per day. So, IF identified as a Trading Range, Fading the swing highs & lows or IF identified as Trending day, taking all the swing entries for the day. I know Brooks method goes for kind of like always being in the market, but till I master everything or like you said “memorize all my notes”, I am looking for only a couple of swing trades per day.