Shakeout Friday

I’m still getting used to posting in the mornings again – quite frankly my afternoon/evening routine in Spain suits me a bit better. Which is another reason why I was pleasantly surprised to see Volar’s post this morning. As per his soybean musings I would have the following to add:

As you know I love to keep it simple/stupid – we’ve got a 100-day SMA touch right now and it’s either a last kiss goodbye or an attempt at a breach (according to Volar it may be the latter). Fortunately we have an additional prop for this setup – which is the 100-hour SMA. That one just so happens to line up with the 100-day right now and thus it’s going to be our fine adjustment tool when it comes to catching the bus on soybeans.

Otherwise we’re pretty much in shake out mode today and I don’t have too much to offer. Here’s the 30-year bond contract which dropped through both SMAs and effectively got us short. If you missed it – don’t feel too bad as support is lurking below. However, after a bounce we may just continue lower, I’ll take a more in-depth look at that as we approach 146.

Coffee reaching the end of the line. We have a 100-day SMA touch and are near the 100-hour BB. Which means dual support and it better hold up or we’ll drop much lower. You know what to do.

Copper – near its NLSL which is about to make acquaintance with the 25-day SMA. I’m sure they’ll have a ton of stories to share and if we are lucky price will pay attention. Again, a great spot to be long until of course we drop below – after that it’s a prime short setup with double resistance above (except that the 25-day will rise a bit longer, so keep that in mind).

Gold is starting to look like it may be ready for a shake out. The lower 100-hour Bollinger is as low as I would like to see it flow – below that and we are getting a more meaningful correction.

Crude – please make up your mind, will ya? We’re trying to get positioned! Seriously though – yesterday’s ramp may have been a shake out before a more extended sell off (a.k.a. the bus moves fastest when it’s empty) but we can’t know for sure. So, I would leave it up to the SMA – yes, I know it sucks and you may have to swap positions a few times. Who ever said this was easy? If it’s any consolation it can be pretty profitable if you pay attention and don’t get emotional 😉

Cheers,