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Circle Of Confusion
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Circle Of Confusion

by The MoleDecember 14, 2018

My lottery long position got stopped out this morning and before deciding my next course of action, or perhaps lack thereof, I thought it best to consult my momo charts, in an attempt to gain a clearer perspective devoid of the daily noise. Unfortunately however this effectively has accomplished the exact opposite as I walked away even more conflicted than before.

Now, let’s remember that increasing noise, confusion, and conflicting technical evidence often serve as the harbinger of large outlier moves. Which at the stage we are, is rather worrisome. Let’s review:

First of all, according to our original plan, the VIX continued to drop yesterday after triggering a bonafide VIX Buy Signal. So far so good and the current drop could easily be interpreted as….

This never gets old. Anyway, and then there’s this:

Behold my new IVTS chart which focuses primarily on medium term BTFD opportunities. The odds seem to be on the side of the bulls if 1) the IVTS has pushed > 0.9 and 2) the upper Bollinger is breached from above and continues to drop for a session or two. So far so good and Admiral Ackbar may be right. However…

Here’s the SKEW:VIX ratio which quite frankly still looks bearish as heck. But it could be worse, and it did…

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About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at the usual social media waterholes.
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  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Good Morning.

    The Number of the Day
    πŸ˜‰

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yoBf-hL3bmU

  • TimeToPanic

    Can’t post a chart, but keeping it simple, looking at NQ daily, it’s a series of lower highs and lows since early October, with a good channel, and good cycles too.

    I therefore favour a new low for NQ, estimating around 6300, unable to draw channel lines on my phone. Cycle low due today, maybe in to Monday.

  • Sp00nman

    Thanks Sir Mole, really appreciate your balanced market analysis everyday! It helps to stay level headed and never get too bearish or bullish.

  • Sp00nman

    O/N session went down to ~20 which is kind of the bullish line in the sand IMO. We break that and high odds we retest the lows at the least.

    To continue the talk yesterday about sentiment, while it’s bearish it could certainly get more bearish. Put/call ratio hasn’t eclipsed the Oct 22nd high, as well as a few more sentiment indexes could certainly get more bearish.

  • Jason13

    Yes agree…while its certainly interesting in a FYI kind of way, its certainly not an immediate call for contrarian trade just for the simple notion of being contrarian.

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    CNBC are still looking to BUY – they have been a good contra-indicator for the last 4 weeks ! Almost as good as Gartman

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    thank you Sharon, at least *someone* appreciates my wry humor.
    πŸ˜‰

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    shills, the lot of them.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    BPSPX,
    35 could be the magic number.
    sentiment is in the gutter. Muwahahaha.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/a49e7d0ccb6104c3ebad0f5a3563fecb5625819a5a3e1e89d32d416ea9e1cc64.png

  • http://www.linkedin.com/in/sharondsessions/ Sharon

    love your wry humor it keeps me chuckling all day long

  • BKXtoZERO

    Short Crude, DWT 12.2

  • maxcherry

    they really should change the name, $bpspx is not sentiment, it’s based on point and figure charts

    “Bullish Percent Indexes indicate the percentage of stocks in an Index or
    Sector ETF that have a Point & Figure Buy Signal Each chart below
    is shown with the corresponding Index or ETF”

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    ok Max, calm down, calm down.

    here: breathe into this bag.

  • disqus_NqlIYE0tBJ

    bank stocks are rallying

  • BKXtoZERO

    Long TVIX at 52.0

  • Mark Shinnick

    Did my bargain buying this morning so far…see if this holds together…
    If this works out would involve some good volatility crush.

  • BKXtoZERO

    Out flat

  • BKXtoZERO

    actually, my order did not go through, which is good….

  • BKXtoZERO

    Long at 51.5, in this time

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    I hear JCPenney is on sale.
    πŸ˜‰

  • BKXtoZERO

    Done for the day… out tvix with 0.50 loss on small position. My crude play was the one… got wigged out, exceeded my target for a stop then quickly reversed. It is my off Friday so heading out with my daughter later

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    (GG waves)

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    SPX Retained 1/2 short position … moving stop down to 2639. 2620 was a level I posted yesterday.2627 and 2616 were other levels that I posted Todays low so far and a minor bounce 2621 2639 and 2609 are other levels
    JULIE

  • ridingwaves
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    BAC It’s daily 5 ema 24.87 High today exactly 24.87 The daily 5 ema on stocks is very important. BAC must have a bullish close above 24.87
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    My bad 2619 low of day so far
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Guys Financials and semis must coincide i.e. go up or down together. Otherwise a bifurcated day. Today going up together today
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    When I start taking advice from a (vaping) blue collar truck driver?…..shoot me

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WbuclA1ehFA

  • Mark Shinnick

    …its like an animal always licking a wound that just doesn’t heal.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Mark A wound from a swiping bear claw
    JULIE

  • Mark Shinnick
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    SPX Here we go guys today a 3rd test of 2620 as I type 2620 is very important to hold Too much ! Love it ! Again below 2620 is 2616 level then 2609
    JULIE

  • Jason13

    It’s like watching a video of crash test dummies

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    You meaning investing?

    https://i.imgflip.com/14sok0.jpg

  • Sp00nman
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    If the Bulls were bowling it would be a gutter ball ! Love it !
    JULIE

  • Sp00nman

    I gotta run out later so not planning on trading much today. What’s interesting is Trump just had another tweet about a possible trade deal soon and the market seems to just be ignoring it now.. At first we’d get a little pop on his tweets but he’s like the boy that cried wolf 10x now.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    ..think we’ll get a proper purging today? I mean, 6 trading days and *no-wheres-ville*.

    https://media.giphy.com/media/af5VOeHNeye9G/giphy.gif

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Theory of diminishing tweets, you may be onto something.

    and/or

    In a bear market – bad news is bad….AND good news is ALSO bad.
    News don’t matter!

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    that upper boundary envelope stinks, but +1 for the RSI highlight.

    How was dinner?
    ;-D

  • BKXtoZERO

    Aaaaaaarg… the pain!. both my trades were correct but I kept my stops super tight and exited both. aaarg.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    pour on the coal!

    How about 2510? too radical?

    The bulls ate too much candy all year, time to puke it up proper.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/ea193727ddd0fce01a05dc488b8dd32e2556b0ee4b5499114a4d3971f22927c3.png

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG Mexican food I had the Chile relleno and chile verde beef with Spanish rice .. It was good. Then some ice cream ! Yes Ice cream Have not had ice cream in about a year !
    JULIE

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    and he used the wrong “their”, so had to re-tweet his tweet. People are now used to his lack of detail and general vagueness when talking about “potential deals2 –

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    you know the saying? over the lips and onto the hips.

    Welcome 35 – 25 – 37
    πŸ˜‰

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG entirely possible I have a level at 2506
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    LOL!
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    BK IMO use the 60 or 30 min 8 ema’s .. Can’t go wrong with a confirmed close above or below Filters out the noise
    JULIE

  • Brishort

    NQ at overnight trading low.
    ES already below.

    Unsure about this down move. The zero points to caution.
    Here is what it looks from a P&F point of view. NDX on support

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/4a2abca8a382c39b620fd8bbd7bf166b74dbc4ca05f1f43eacc636f22edde749.png

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • BKXtoZERO

    just poke my eyes out with a stick….

  • Brishort

    Out of clarity, the next P&F blok is 50 points wide.
    It triggers at 5999

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    tight stops means you have low confidence.

    find trades where confidence is higher.

  • BKXtoZERO

    ya… dead on, it was a low conviction day in my mind

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG Second helping Please ! Thank You !
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    it’s cool. it’s Friday. Have fun with your daughter.
    Mine is growing up oh so fast. Right Julie?

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    it’s a carb craving. try to eat more good fats in your diet. like meat & bacon & avocados.
    πŸ˜‰

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    BK I give a trade time to work out esp. a short .. I do not run scared.if trade planned out
    JULIE

  • BKXtoZERO

    too much dead space on ES to go anywhere upward, but CL was my higher conviction trade, larger position size,

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    I got tired of the break even, negative when you count the Vig.

  • Brishort

    Current Zero.
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/186f615393e81366791d82699f19380efc3dd389f8b0d5a59e65042d7f08863f.png Clearly not registering the downmove as trustable from a Zero perspective.

  • BKXtoZERO

    I get scared and call my mommy!

  • Darkthirty

    I got 2515-2525 3 weeks ago, need to tighten that up. Prophet charts suck long term, though. That was if this move is A=C from the top, currently in c of C.

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    Next week I think will be the wash out –
    then we may get a tradeable low..

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho
  • Brishort

    For today, very short term, the line in the sand on my screen is NQ holding its overnight low around 6650.

    If it doesn’t, it may have real legs down.

  • BKXtoZERO

    Calling RW… TSLA alert:3rd stab at 380$ on declining RSI

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Yes GG Sons and daughters grow up fast. Time with them is precious. Saturday’s my husband spent time with our son .. sports .. fishing etc. Sunday with our daughter whatever she wanted to do
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    and Monday another review of Warren Buffets brilliance.
    turn that thing off, rots your brain.
    πŸ˜‰

  • Sp00nman

    Anyone remember or have archived snapshots of the zero on days like 10/10 or 10/29? It’d be interesting to look back..

    It doesn’t look like we have very strong selling, but on the other hand that could just mean an absence of buyers and any conviction for the bulls…?

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    He and myself never missed anything with both
    JULIE

  • Mark Shinnick

    Water is so amazing..

  • Brishort

    like skating?

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    there use to be a guy. hard core dedicated to snapshotting.
    forgot about him.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    what’s water?
    πŸ˜‰

  • Brishort

    Not showing anywhere else on my indicators, but Zero 1 min and 5 min just got neutral.

    If this is to have any significance, this means we could bounce.
    In ABC parlance, this would be a B low.

    All “if” though. more price action needed to assess if intel is tradable.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Brishort 2609 level VERY Important .. A major level 1 Also looks like an impulse down from 2685 so IMO a bounce should be corrective
    JULIE

  • Brishort

    Agreed.

    From a trading perspective, it’s the reminder that bear rallies can be brutal and that his market needs and deserves a lot of agility to be survived.I

  • Sp00nman

    Yep, ES back to O/N low, important battle line.. Will it breach the line or hold? http://www.quickmeme.com/img/eb/ebe30aa90ee7fe261333e407d720eb3bfc9eef8972cf56e42a4fd40b1ef80c51.jpg

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    I know!! But it is funny πŸ˜‰
    changed to “Pointless”
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b00rhg2r

  • Mark Shinnick

    with a little bit of oil slick…they find out πŸ™‚

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    A review of 2007.
    unlikely it will happen again. but you have to have a plan.
    deer in headlights is not an option.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/bfa66a62f59a668f2ef80f876ca886fe1cbdd67b1a592252192fd6e7cd920e87.png

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Taking another 1/4 off short … Now just a 1/4 position moving stop down on remainder to 2625 Been a nice ride down from 2685
    JULIE

  • TimeToPanic

    It’s coming GG, but not on this leg. I am hoping a washout hits today and doesn’t vanish before I can cash in Monday.

    Next cycle high I think is 24th December.

  • Brishort

    From a Zero perspective, 2625 is VWAP, likelihood of being touched is high.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    “consider the fate of your women”

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1NV9DSykTbo

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Brishort approx 2625 is the 30 min 8 ema too
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    As stated below 2609 is a major Level 1
    JULIE

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    How’s everyone?

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Doing Great Chief .. One leg at a time !
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    90 comments, slow day.

  • Brishort

    Finding this market extremely dangerous to trade. Due to frequent ES 25 points swings, regardless of the trend, it is difficult to have any stops in place.

    But from a risk management perspective, it makes for wide channels, so not always comfortable. and reversion between the channels are super frequent, hence difficult to trade manually.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Okay, a few guys here seem to be looking up but I’m not seeing anything bullish at the moment:

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/e16470b482f34e1d8dbae7bec1559372dbdceb802a98cee1062f1b1a1aa2f661.png

    YES, there is a small divergence along with the recent spike low. But I would not dare go long unless VWAP can be cleared and the Zero remains above the mark.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Told you guys, bear markets are tough to trade.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    45 by Julie – LOL :0)

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I’m adding half a pound just looking at that.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I kept telling the HODLers that this was coming – of course they didn’t listen.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    It’s actually really sad as I heard of people mortgaging their house to buy bitcoin. At 7000 or 5000.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    They never do.

  • https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLEx52bnnbLmh2dnV_Vyq1ErXT79LSU6pT xenoson

    Question is if tech is really leading to the upside here, like it seemed the last couple of days. ndx is down more than spx since the highs. And the rest of the market, including mid and small caps, seem to be on the way for very bearish weekly closes. Russell nearing the -20% mark.

  • Sp00nman

    Do the spikes at the open carry less weight when there are gaps? Internals are always thrown off by gaps, which looks like the zero factors in.

  • Darkthirty

    VWAP is 2623.75 The pumps are on but not keeping up…..yet!

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Excellent remarks.

    If YOda was here, he’d ask for that volume hole uncharted territory thing.

  • BKXtoZERO

    Positive week again, today I just kept things a little too tight or today would have been another +. playing crude, had about 4-5 nice hits in the last week or two. TVIX a few small hits. Just keeping things positive, tight, managing risk… perfect or out.

  • Sp00nman

    Ya, they are very hard to trade, and I think the best thing you can do is get out of the way. If you can make a few bucks on the way down great. That’s largely my gameplan at least.

  • BKXtoZERO

    I prefer this tape… small daily movements are only good for trend followers, and also futures traders who can stop out. Retail is harder. Unless you want to hold, you need a lot of intraday movement. 10 years of small green candles every day wore me out.

  • Jason13
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Hey! at least we have JNJ a nice defensive DOW stock, right!?!?
    πŸ˜‰
    talk about a shot across the bow.

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=JNJ&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p9032837685c

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Covering remaining 1/4 short .. Getting ready to go long
    JULIE

  • Brishort

    Same here

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • strider

    2 guys I work with borrowed from their 401K for bitcoin.

  • ridingwaves

    I was telling a friend to get out with all the gains, he rode it down to 5K……reminds me of a bunch of biotech stocks…long empty candles where all the big boys got out…..

  • Darkthirty

    2 minute pump cycle. They’ll pour the coal to it yet!

  • ridingwaves

    I hate to say it but this seems all about getting the fed to call uncle on last rate bump……
    china data last night and PMI data today give them room to do it…

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Right on Brishort … Nailing these legs Bro !

  • Brishort

    You better than me. I am committing a few mistakes.

  • Brishort

    Positions actually just flipped short again.

  • ridingwaves

    getting ready for first re-buy of BOIL, $NG is a long for me between 3.60 and 3.82, prefer 3.74 area for entry…

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Brishort 60 min bullish candle closing above 2620 is signal to go long then watching 2625
    JULIE

  • Brishort

    Just flattened out the short term system manually.
    The indecision is palpable at this level.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • ridingwaves

    this was sad, just the amount of new BTC issues at beginning of last year should have been a clue…..would you like tulips in red, blue, green, purple etc…..

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • BKXtoZERO

    RW, You think TSLA is a short here at 380 area again on weaker RSI ?

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG I am really into curves ! LOL!
    JULIE

  • ridingwaves

    looks like a good setup, you could put the stop at 383, the candle high from 8/8, the caveat is it could break out anywhere above that level….
    subsidies and tax credits are ending but caution needed on that stock as it has a lot of believers…..

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    well, that’s a relief. no one wants to drive a Porsche in a straight line.
    https://i.pinimg.com/originals/9f/d5/1d/9fd51de5bdc6226b00152eb701a0e514.jpg

  • BKXtoZERO

    I can’t short in my account anyway…. thinking of you.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG Now you are cooking with gas !
    JULIE

  • ridingwaves

    its painting inside day today, so you could even lower stop to yesterdays candle high, the weekly chande momo is now pointing up nicely though….
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/1626d14e5d7e9cf74a5c1b8b5a64deced029b3f06ae0a4c3fedbc812765b2aa4.png

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG Probably fill the gap
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Darkthirty

    Bizarre signals again….still…..

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG Parobola’s usually go down to where they start which again looks like gap fill. That’s where we buy GG
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    quick! check Pluto or Neptune or something.
    πŸ˜‰

  • Darkthirty

    Dat bees rayciss!

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    agree. But I defer to RW.

  • Darkthirty

    Jupiter and Neptune. And of course, as usual, uranus

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    this one goes out to all my favorite bears, brown black and white.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3fdZWbIsrFk

  • Darkthirty

    BTC layover will show you how it works……..

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    EXAS I have a target @ 65 low today 66.55 … Going to play it on the daily chart Needs a bullish close above it’s 5 ema approx 69.40 JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/b16448e70cc05f5c109049441878786bee3ac4dabcf450f9dda3f10813d5c955.png

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Mercury & Sun in sagittarius, mercury & venus in scorpio, Mars in pisces.

    It’s a freaking Astrological orgy.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    you can’t delete your posts? why not?

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG Two charts are better than one ! LOL!
    JULIE

  • ridingwaves

    you need to run the weekly to get better view…. going to really have to warm up for it to push below the red support line….still too many people shorting via DGAZ….ripe to be picked apart…..
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/e6749cad10a7395f3752d6d7a3f2162ec71be23c4d4907a9d402f65e23b54477.png

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    looking left? smart man.
    yes, it won’t be a quickie, line will be support/tested.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG Saturn has a ring…. Is there ring around Uranus? LOL!
    JULIE

  • ridingwaves

    its not overbought anymore….winter seems like its just kicking in….I have one more spike coming….

  • Brishort

    Aiming for VWAP again?
    Zero would be supportive of scenario

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Brishort I am not long yet 2609 super important to hold. Will go long as stated below needs a bullish 60 min candle closing above 2620 Brishort Have A Merry Christmas
    JULIE

  • Brishort

    Have a Merry Christmas too Julie!

  • mSquare

    Why 2609?

    Isn’t 2603 the prior lows is THE level for a lower-low the super important one?

  • Brishort

    Very bad behavior for the close. The downtrend channel on the 5 min is still respected. There are not many reasons left to hold anything over the week-end….

  • maxcherry
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    SPX If 2609 does not hold I have another level at 2560 which will intersect the lower channel trend line JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/04b8a304a5f874f6caab075f1e66f7fd0927149013a8c6e408b6041da96513b1.png

  • Ted

    I think the only bullish case for Monday is if they leave the market for dead today. William’s % R likely will get pinned creating a possible snap back rally which may last only a singe day.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    2603 is important yes … BUT 2609 is an algorithm I have posted the various algos which have been within 2 – 4 pts of the turns I can drill down even further to a level 3 but level 2 close enough for daily swings Below 2609 are level 2’s @ 2597 – 2590 – 2579 – 2560. The low 2583 was within 4 pts of the 2579 level 2 I have not computed level 3 below 2609 Level 3 I can compute within 1 pt
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Also the 2685 swing I posted 2687 level 2 within 2 pts
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Max Merry Christmas
    JULIE

  • HD

    nobody did the work, crunched the numbers, on vix buy signals in 2018.

    Not so good RR if you ask me.

  • maxcherry

    thank you, you too

  • Ted

    Two recent pop and drops.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    I’d Google that, but not at work I won’t.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    BEERS for everybody and everyone!!!

  • HD

    this one netted 10 point if you were perfect before rolling over 80 points. The one that stands out for me is March. 80 point draw down immediately. Some are more statistically motivated than I am. I have seen it work but not that often.

  • HD

    I think looking left is worthwhile. 2632 was our Nov pivot. 2683 2018 open. Those worked well this week.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    chart man, you’ve been slacking on your charts.

  • HD

    in bull markets the Friday before opex can be a low. This aint a bull market though.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Spot on HD !
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    that’s between him and his Sikh father on the wall behind him.

  • HD
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    HD 2627 was a level 2 that I posted I have not computed level 3 below 2687 But a level 3 would probably be within 1 pt of 2632
    JULIE

  • HD

    only got 31 votes on the poll. 2800’s got the most votes for EOY price……

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    SPX Levels below 2609 are posted below in a reply to mSquare
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    The low as I type right now 2597 which is posted below
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Ted

    I like them in combination with a blasted NYMO and Williams % R. We may get the latter today but the NYMO is higher than I would like. Playing the upside here takes balls and may be a really dumb move.

  • HD

    there’s always a rally but sellers have been hitting them hard.

  • BKXtoZERO

    My trading log entry today about how I feel after stopping out of TVIX and DWT:
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/c22577f794fc636c997fb02eb5ca18619a6b1df361156936af0b5428e343ba0f.png

  • BKXtoZERO

    I was thinking it would fail… mkt has changed, kind of like VIX sells in a bull market

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Guys Positive divergences MACD 5,34,5 HISTOGRAM on 10 and 30 min charts
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    ~1 Hour to go.

  • ridingwaves

    tricky aholes on XLF, .01 from closing gap……..01…..unreal….

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Wave_surfer

    It seems like either it S&P is still channel bound and it wants to bounce off of the support in the 2580-2620 range, or October was a move down, November was a correction up and December will be another move down (2500 or lower?)
    We will see how Monday goes. I have noticed recently that it seems like if a Friday has been a strong trend day that the next week tends to trend in the opposite direction.
    I am as undecided as the market is. Will it make a decision on Monday or find a way to dance around for longer?

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    it’s a signal, not sure what.

    I’ve told Julie that under a nickel?, honeybadger don’t care.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    One hour left … May go long with final bullish 60 min candle closing above 2616 level and 2615 60 min 8 ema If so a very small position (probe) held over weekend The 2597 level (actual 2796) may possible be the low with the positive Histo divergences mentioned in post below
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    What is really unreal RW is on earnings a multi billion dollar company beats by one penny and the stock goes moon shot. One fuckin penny RW Pardon my language
    JULIE

  • ridingwaves

    this is all about the fed meeting…..
    I mentioned this gap months ago as sore point for bulls…..
    this leg down is all about the fed decision next week……if they punt, a vicious rally will occur……there are plenty of bears to be splayed….

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    I agree.
    also, option expiry week.

    Bear Market’s have the most vicious rallies.

    edit: no doubt, today’s SPY PUTs may be worth less next week.

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPX&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p18039270204

  • maxcherry

    spx still looks like a wedge , bottom dec 21st, like 2000? (full moon 22nd)

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/abe176dda205b77991e16ea74c4fd3d17d5da774731b302e9eb6e0d4ea064a9e.png

  • HD

    good eyes max. Lines up well with the 2478 I have on the chart.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    HD 2482 is a level that I have
    JULIE

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Wave counting is like a bad rash you can’t get rid of.

  • HD

    is that a count?

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Funny thing is that IF I was still wave wanking traffic on this blog would be 10x what it is. Having integrity and telling the truth in finance/trading is a losing proposition and I can’t recommend it.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Borderline count πŸ˜‰

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Alright guys – I’m going to watch a movie with the Mrs. Everyone have a great weekend!

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    HD It’s a chart pattern i.e. falling wedge .. Simple TA
    JULIE

  • BKXtoZERO

    Thanks for the blog and all your posts and help. Enjoy the weekend Sir.

  • Ted

    But yours is the only one I even look at because of your demonstrated integrity.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    You have a great weekend too Chief
    JULIE

  • HD

    agree, I feed on the negative energy so it’s fine… plus EW keeps running circles on the quant stuff. all year

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Thanks Captain.
    remember – sometimes the riches are right under our very noses.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    You should try it. Like one of those flashback events.
    (but just for a week)

  • Wave_surfer

    Same here Ted

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Darkthirty

    Gonna load up a Monday exp lotto ticket strangle. hard telling what the response to this will be

  • Ted

    Looking to go long my entire 401k in small caps at the EOD. It may be for only one day.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    I am flat (GG No lewd comment LOL!) Took profits covered remaining 1/4 short approx 2609. Left some on the table below 2609 Not greedy The approx 2597 level posted may possibly be the low then a bonce. As stated positive HISTO divergences on 10 and 30 min charts and oversold 60 min chart Have A Great Weekend Everyone
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    I can’t talk you into waiting another day?

    It’s going to be interesting.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/6687b908f1a0268eeb65503b79a0b83ed2af0cec738b436f9e9ab6c2649a023a.png

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    it’s our little secret {giggle}

  • ridingwaves

    praise the gap gods, they finally closed that bastard…..it was like the bots were perfectly executed….

  • https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLEx52bnnbLmh2dnV_Vyq1ErXT79LSU6pT xenoson

    why?

  • Darkthirty

    That’s a scary move. There may be a rescue OR capitulation.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Darkthirty

    Working weekly options, fast and furious.

  • Ted

    Bring up a weekly chart on any indice with William’s % R. When it gets this low their is always a snap back rally.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Ted

    I’m happy that you are all out. I went full retard long. Perhaps for just a day. Don’t want to bet against you!

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    One more week.

    “Friday, December 21” – Winter Solstice. Praise the Pagan Gods.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Have a great weekend Ted and Merry Christmas .. A full position Yipes ! A small probe .. Yes
    JULIE

  • Darkthirty

    When the bear is growling, the big selloffs occur when everything is oversold………..

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    The SPX top tick was the day before FALL EQUINOX
    “Saturday, September 22”.

    I’m sure it’s just a Billionaire coincidence. Muwahahaha.
    screw the Moon cycles.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Yup ! Oversold can become more oversold. One little trick is RSI(4) no movement or advance then really be careful
    JULIE

  • https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLEx52bnnbLmh2dnV_Vyq1ErXT79LSU6pT xenoson

    Wow, that’s a call on the worst weekly close for 1 1/2 years. Good luck!

  • Ted

    Thanks Julie, have a great weekend and Merry Christmas as well. R y putting on the skies this weekend? It seems to always just rain here in Atlanta especially on the weekends. It’s been almost two years since my visit to Copper Mountain.

  • Ted

    I will post a chart this weekend once I get my account straightened out in freestockcharts.

  • Ted

    That’s exactly why I pulled the trigger. If wrong I won’t be wrong long i promise you that.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Perhaps Bridger Bowl tomorrow Ted . We have some things to do around the house. If we finish early then Yup
    JULIE

  • Ted

    Enjoy

  • mSquare
  • TimeToPanic

    You might not need to be wrong for long but an opening gap down will be painful.

  • TimeToPanic

    I decided to hold all my NQ short ETFs from 6740 as UK markets closed this afternoon. Didn’t see any likelihood of a bounce, nice controlled weak finish was lovely to see, mild hint of panic.

    My cycle bottomed today so I’m ambivalent about Monday, possibly a quick plunge, then up into cycle high around 24th, assuming the cycle continues. A big gap up will be frustrating, but I’m getting used to the problem.

    Fwiw, I think we will gap down Monday, capitulation low by 2pm US time, coud be as low as 6260 on NQ, then btfd in to the afternoon.

    Enjoy your weekends.

  • TimeToPanic

    Yup, same sort of channel on NQ Julie. I think this leg down ends Monday, crashy style.

  • TimeToPanic

    Good if you’re short πŸ™‚

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    see ‘ya Panic.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Guys YES GLD What I have been waiting for and posting The corrective pullback to the daily 21 ema matching a fib confluence and a lower trend line JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/2ebf31052057d115b3af44df2eaf553513effa0e0edbf9f8cf60d802bd23ea97.png

  • Ted
  • Ted
  • Ted
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    After a nice dinner, and a margarita.
    The situation is more serious than I thought.

    My cycle low expectation is moved from the 18th to 24th.
    I was expecting lower prices yesterday. and we got it with -50 S&P points, today.
    but HEY, no one’s listening.
    πŸ˜‰ https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/0b001fb475749021a5ba1dd531b5e086d9fd598f748157cf688063b03d13d790.png
    -HeisenGerb

  • Ted

    Is that prognostication based on your infamous T thing?

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    no, two other things.
    The T can be slightly adjusted to make it three indicators.

  • Ted

    Are you sure you’re not drunk? One margarita is an awful lot for a gerb. LOL

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III
  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III
  • TimeToPanic

    Hello GG. Can I please ask how/why your cycle date is moved?

    I’m going to an internet cafe on Sunday, will re-check the cycle I found and post the chart.
    From memory it was 12-13 days down, 12-13 days up. From memory the bottom was due 13th-14th. My memory isn’t brilliant at the moment though.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    My T hasn’t moved, it’s become wider. see diagram.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/0cee503fb018f260c9559f923c2d6982c752eafec442016d523ef71816898b36.png
    What you speak of is an equal down-up time, essentially a V-move.

    What I speak of is a time of down, and then a time of a bounce with failed up and roll-over to terminal down. A Bearish Tee.

  • Ivan Hrusovsky
  • BKXtoZERO

    Cycles can invert and go 2X

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Guys Looking for Banks to rally $BKX Weekly chart down to two Raff Regression pts ; major support ; weekly 233 ema and oversold Also RSI and STOCHS positive divergences. JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/1a39a2f6cb5c2734ee9753aa61bdf7f97d72f6dfba1d1f50e5b833af908fbf8b.png

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Guys The SPX should rally The Banks and Semis (large % of SPY sectors) should carry a rally. Also the 2593 – 2609 areas should mark an intermediate term bottom Just watch
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Guys I will leave it up to you. Be advised to draw trend lines $SOX end of October
    JULIE

  • Ted

    Music to my ears. BKX is also resting on it’s monthly 55 ema and both the weekly and monthly William’s % R exceed 99. The daily is 98.82 which is good enough.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Hi Ted … You are on to fib exp moving averages too Good man ! My husband taught me fib exp mov averages I am going to delete after you read Too many lurkers The expression you tell 6 people you have told the world Just checkout BKX below with the 233 weekly fib mov average
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Time for a rally Ted. Like I have stated going to need the participation of the Banks and Semis. The Banks and Semis must always move together. Not many people know that
    JULIE

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Guys Not sure if anyone has noticed SPX weekly chart there is a positive Bollinger Band divergence
    JULIE

  • Ronebadger

    Not sure what a BB divergence is…maybe you could post a chart and explain?

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    I’ll have the HIBACHI GRILLED SHRIMP skillet
    πŸ˜‰

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    What Ronebadger said…

    I’ve got some Bollingers, raven smart bollingers.
    pick a bollinger, any bollinger.

    I should charge $$$ for this one. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/71fafa77804ca5b822f6d54978106e1b1be6c1c1e70034588f8198afd12106b3.png
    -GG

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Try a 55 Keltner.
    There is some room to ‘scare the children’ IMHO.
    (see that vacuous Nov 2016?)
    if RSI gets under 31, well – fun happens.

    Kaw – Kaw

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/ff555a1d547b1d5e9c9fc8310aae5c03c21054614c283e90138baf219e1af040.png

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Oh this is lovely.
    Don’t they pay these guys enough? Or did they outsource yet another IT platform?

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/c7dc05addcc106eaf05e637f26be8cfd4a0ddb18e4b39cfd255d899ef816414b.png

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    RB A close outside the band. Then a lower low closing inside the band
    JULIE

  • TimeToPanic

    Closed NQ shorts this morning. Captured 120 NQ points short.

    Next, the rally, then the real fun after Christmas.

  • Ted

    Nice trade TPC