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Close But No Cigar
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Close But No Cigar

by The MoleFebruary 15, 2019

This has been a pretty rough week for my teeth plus the vanity laser treatment I received yesterday now makes my face look like as if I went three rounds with Conor McGregor. On the upside nobody in their right mind is going to mess with me now as I look even scarier than usual. Alright Monday is a trading holiday and most of you guys are probably on the way out. Let’s see where we are this morning:

I almost got stopped out at break/even yesterday afternoon and then once again overnight. Close but no cigar and my long campaign is currently scraping ~0.5R.

What worries me a bit is a potential failure of the daily NLBL at ES 2736.5, which we would have on the books if the S&P gets dropped lower in light trading today. The possible consequence of that is a revisit of the 2700 mark.

And to be honest, given the current formation on the daily/weekly, this scenario would make the most sense to me. But alas I’m long here with a stop at b/e – and to quote ole’ Julius: alea iacta est.

My gold campaign has made a surprising recovery and although I’m not yet ready to advance my stop to break/even I have an inkling we may be looking at a break-out formation here.

Not surprisingly my USD/JPY campaign has not fared so well. Which is fine as I never expected to run both concurrently without losing in one of them.

It has happened before and this may be yet another time I get to have my cake and eat it too. Anyway I’m out at 1R as it hit my stop almost by the tick. Wouldn’t be surprised if it would reverse here and not look back.

Hey, you guys didn’t really this trading racket would be easy? Ha!!

I’m extremely ticked off about missing a great entry on the ZB futures. Had been pining for that one for over a week now and kept pimping it to my intrepid subs.

And then completely missed out on a picture perfect entry whilst sitting at the dentist to get a temporary crown – for the third time in a row I may add.

Cunning Plan Thwarted By Sadistic Spanish Dentist. — How’s that for a headline?

I really hope some of you subs grabbed this one because if it manages to breach 147 then it’s off to the races here.

Alright, I’m off to the gym as I’ve only been there once this week. See you guys on next Tuesday 😉


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at the usual social media waterholes.
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  • Jason13

    Some of us did manage to snag ZB so thanks..

  • Jason13

    Something ain’t right there this morning

  • Ted

    Can you expand on that?

  • Jason13

    Pretty sizeable drop there..headlines and tweets are driving the equities/bonds dynamic now. Economic numbers continue to disappoint. Usually bigger smart money quietly goes into bonds and leaves retail to the equities so it surprised me a bit. But then this year and this era…no rules now.

  • zzezzezz

    picking up some lottery SPY puts for today’s expiration…

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Jason13

    Agreed. Now maybe people can STOP predicting doomsdays. I read the click bait too but come on people, these are forces beyond your control. Go to other markets! It’s tricky to even go long here.

  • maxcherry

    3rd year of a presidential term has been the best of the four, this year so far is on track

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/646eb463f4a9bbcbc047ad09539a75281f43c410efd07e5f8fbdfc39c2d04939.png

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Sp00nman

    Wow, crazy spike higher today on internals at the open. FOMO money and bears capitulating? Quite the reversal in after hours as well.

  • ridingwaves

    economic numbers continue to disappoint? Is this not the new norm….
    there is no better place in the world to put your money to work than America right now….its plain to see in the bond market..plus the PTB are going to do everything they can to push people into high priced housing assets as they unload, inventory up, sales down….

  • nirav777

    Option has OI pinned IMO to 2769/// the Bid EXp there and so seem we stay lifted… Current Zero..

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/3bdfd6087ae19ba23a52733f1d2e6dd9b12dee4f3df01c967760f896d0893641.png

  • zzezzezz

    max pain for today SPY @ 271.50

  • BobbyLow

    As far as the markets go I had my ass handed to me back in 2009 and 2010 being a perma bear and listening to the predictions of further collapse following the Banking Crisis.

    I finally got it through my thick scull that I don’t have to catch the first move and there will be time to join in if any move has legs.

  • https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLEx52bnnbLmh2dnV_Vyq1ErXT79LSU6pT xenoson

    All puts burned.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Yeah, that was an excellent setup for those frontrunning bears.

  • BobbyLow

    Yep. We’re still the best bet.

    BTW, did it stop raining where you are yet?

  • Mark Shinnick

    Looks like headwind toward 85.8

  • zzezzezz

    yup… bought some lottery SPY puts though… 😉

  • BobbyLow

    In the spirit of “Primum non nocere”, I just took 1/2 of my long oil position (UCO) off the table. This way I was able to book some profit while removing 1/2 of the holding risk of a 3 Day Weekend. If the current upward move looks like it still has legs on Tuesday, I’ll add it back

  • ridingwaves

    it better, rivers are cresting, dykes are busting (no pun, but funny considering where I live) now snow down to 1800 ft this weekend….
    Eureka had snow on the beach a week ago….pretty rare….

    truffles are going nuts here, shroom hunting nirvana….next week I start my bee keeping classes….

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/80400fe8a0578d29766aec18e06264c981965e5be5f86b851a8722c268c2cdce.jpg

  • Ted

    I can’t watch this crap anymore today, it’s torture. I keep trying to convince myself that it’s better to be wishing you were in a trade than out of one but it’s not working out so well. Going to do something else in an attempt to get my mind off of it.

  • BobbyLow

    Good luck. I hope it stops soon.

  • zzezzezz

    I hear ya. Very painful right now…

  • BobbyLow

    I know the feeling so sometimes I just have to be satisfied that I’m not on the wrong side of a move and that cash is a position too.

  • mSquare

    Shhh. Someone may think of declaring a national emergency to ban science !

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    I have a database to recover, busy busy Friday.
    smoke’m if ya got them. L8ter.
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/c7f5878072819514d250f66ad9657f5bed58cf151fa40c22e7bfbecf560777ca.png
    DOW weekly, 47 weekly averages.
    -GG

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    ..wouldn’t surprise me at this point!!
    😉

    https://images.abccolumbia.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/women.jpg

  • ridingwaves

    someone’s pain is another’s gain….

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Guys I am sure you can understand the reasoning why I employ a very small probe.
    JULIE

  • Jason13

    Full position in Platinum now (from dip last night). Moved stop up.

  • Jason13

    Full position in ZB now too. Fingers crossed. Pall stopped me out. That beeatch is on a super bull run, which is weird since car sales are way down in Europe and they’re phasing out diesels.

  • Ted

    The point is we have missed an incredible rally. These opportunities don’t come along often. Price has called into question your tape reading skills. I told you what happens when the daily price gets in between the two bands, Bollinger and Keltner. I’m beyond pissed off for doubting myself. The market is not rational.

  • zzezzezz

    I have been in your position MANY times. But what is worse than doubting yourself and missing a chance is being on the wrong side of the trade. I’ll easily take ZERO dollars than NEGATIVE dollars.

  • zzezzezz

    Full moon on the NEXT trading day… Tuesday Feb 19th

  • Jason13

    Apparently in a conference call Trump is trying to pump markets to new highs. That’s his gauge of success. They’re saying he’s trading during “executive time”. Have no idea that’s true but it’s hilarious.

  • BKXtoZERO

    Long TVIX 33.71 for the day

  • Sp00nman

    Ya he definitely seems obsessed with the stock market as if it’s a gauge on his performance.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Yes…I see your point. It looks like it went a bit extreme with maybe a bit more to go.

  • BKXtoZERO

    I try fairly often as you see… a bit scattershot but when you get one it is pretty sweet. Holding small from yesterday and down on that.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Ted I understand your frustration . Yes I have missed most of the rally too. I am not letting emotions govern my trades.Opportunities will come up. I am on the sidelines with oil (USO) waiting for an entry On the sidelines with other stocks I am watching waiting for an entry
    JULIE

  • ridingwaves

    this is true, but it wasn’t a hard setup with stops…the bearishness of the blog was a great sign of continued push north

  • Mark Shinnick

    Roger that, its pretty challenging to hold much global perspective when dealing with that thing.

  • https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLEx52bnnbLmh2dnV_Vyq1ErXT79LSU6pT xenoson

    I realized open positions, no matter their size, make me biased into their direction.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    This market presently since end of September you can easily miss a move esp with the volatility.A very small probe keeps me focused not biased
    JULIE

  • BKXtoZERO
  • Jason13

    Do not mean to be political here but it absolutely explains the micro of the macro,
    From GMM,
    “Just run the presses — print money,” Trump said, according to Woodward, during a discussion on the national debt with Gary Cohn, former director of the White House National Economic Council.

    “You don’t get to do it that way,” Cohn said, according to Woodward. “We have huge deficits and they matter. The government doesn’t keep a balance sheet like that.”

    Cohn was “astounded at Trump’s lack of basic understanding,” Woodward writes. – CNBC

  • BobbyLow

    I’ve been readng a few discrepancies between fundamental trading and technical trading.

    The worst lesson for me was the last housing boom. I was living in Florida at the time and witnessed the miraculous development and continuous flipping of $300,000 to $500,000 Mc-Mansions each with their very own palm tree and manicured 5,000 Square Foot Lot. This was also happening in different parts of the country and the publically traded builders, banks, and commercial real estate stocks along with reits were booming and screaming upward. Banks also had “No Doc” loans and anyone could buy a home even if they didn’t have a job.

    Now what did these fundamentals look like back then? I honestly believe that anyone with an IQ above 80 knew that this could not end well. So being a “smart person” I began shorting the housing market about a year early in 2007. Eventually more and more pundits were coming out from under their rocks saying that housing was going to blow up. But for about a year amazingly the housing stocks would show signs of weakness and then come roaring back taking most bears out along the way. It wasn’t until late 2008 that the actual failure and massive downturn in housing took place taking the rest of the economy along with it.

    This was an excellent example of how macro fundamentals, “common sense, and logic” can lag behind price action of the market. Now hindisght is always 100% and if I had been trading technicals in 2007, I probably would have been long for most of the year with a few shorts inbetween.

    But that was then and this is now so for me if I hear something about fundamentals that is not aligned with my technical perspective, technicals are boss. This is because even though technicals can also lag, they are more reliable for a short term swing trader. JMNSHO 🙂

  • Jason13

    Great movie, The Big Short.

  • ridingwaves

    Crappy National Bullshit Company quotes are not good for your portfolio….zeroedge with more adjectives and pretty girls…

    this will help you much more..

    https://www.yardeni.com/pub/mktbriefsppesecind.pdf

  • Ted

    I took a water pill earlier as the irish part of my blood pressure was screaming. Look at IWM on a daily chart. I told you it would go to the 200 day sma. Did I play it – Nooooooo. Perhaps once it gets there this foolishness will end, but who knows. I’m going to post a chart later today that gives me great hope that something will happen. I’m not going to do it now because freestockcharts freezes up on me when I save a file. It has to do with fib time. It’s remarkable how it fits perfectly. Will it happen again, time will tell. Typing this has allowed me to calm down some. Emotions are very bad for trading but it’s difficult to change who you are. Heck I got chocked up watching Lindsay Vahn race her final downhill this past weekend. Always get chocked up watching the final hole of the Masters which would be my ultimate crowning achievement. Since it’s not going to happen for me I have to live it through someone else.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Yep….gotta stick with price…directly from which technicals derive.

  • ridingwaves

    I remember you called it, trying to figure out why you just didn’t do it and run a tight stop behind it……but alas I have been there too…..We are in that place that Bobby Low states above, 2006 warnings signs were coming with Bear Stearns share price moving down-down-down, finally went out in april 2007 and the market kept going up until late fall…..that was the collapse of a 100 year old trading company and the market kept going….

    We have nothing like that happening today but I would say we are in a 06-07 time frame, the only issue is cyclical bull markets can keep going past 2020…..everready bunny on fed juiced up batteries

  • Ted

    I find this rather remarkable how this lines up. Will it mean anything, I don’t know only time will tell. It seems as though the other indices are waiting on IWM to reach the 200 day sma. It also looks like it will correspond to time line #3. SPX does not match up as perfectly. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/a6980bb2546cdf1f914f3b704ed1ca2c3530a4d97030f820bcbbc488077b58fa.png

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Ted I also fave a fib time SPX. I have seen Lindsey Vonn ski at Bridger Bowl and Big Sky. Remember Picabo Street. I have seen her ski MT as well. Butte has a high altitude Olympic training facility where ice skaters and hockey train. Biathlon trains at Lone Mt Ranch very close to where we live. Cross County trains at a facility near Bozeman. Very interesting to watch
    JULIE

  • Ted

    Yes I remember her. If memory serves me right she had numerous injuries. Downhill and extreme skiing require a lot of guts that i don’t have. LOL

  • zzezzezz

    What’s the date for line #3?

  • http://www.captainboom.com/ captainboom

    Yep, was just going to recommend that.

  • Ted

    I can only make a move at the end of the day. So I can’t place a stop. Other than that I’m an idiot.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Ted IWM These are also legitimate trend lines. This a.m. they gaped it above a horizontal resistance an an upper trend line JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/90df8505b5e7dd533aa65d3522ef33c17ea98c2507bd375b46180e8bfa0f1cac.png

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Hey guys – anyone still here?

  • Ted

    February 20th. which is next Wednesday.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I have watched fundies getting killed whilst ‘being right’ for a very long time now. Why do you guys think I’m not trading any of it? 😉

    Ignore the news but watch the long term trends. Trade one day at a time.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Read the book – it’s better.

  • ridingwaves

    your not an idiot but could you have made the trade at opening the next morning? or any other time frame? I’m a surfer-cave man, if I can do it, anyone can….

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    Ted, your eye is drawn to the 40 day cycle. Doesn’t always work, but you get the jist.
    233 sma FTW

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/7c071cba82c1b3b1feefcd6995cbc15bc1d582169b5e10e96d7e4767f0df5150.png
    off to lunch!

  • BKXtoZERO

    Still here…. waiting on Godot

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Hi Chief … Bummer with the teeth. So far my new provisional crown working very well.You will be fine
    JULIE

  • Ted

    In or out on the final tick of the day. So if i were to buy the small caps now my opening price would be the last tick of the day. Always subject to overnight risk. On the plus side it offers a nice fixed rate of roughly 3%.

  • ridingwaves

    ahh, short time frame trading….I suck at that…

  • evilasevildoes

    watching oil

  • Ted

    Thanks Gerb.

  • Jason13

    Agreed but it’s nice to know how the game is played…so that if you get a jist of the rules, you’re chances of winning goes up..

  • zzezzezz

    Yes sir. Living this right now: “The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.”

  • BKXtoZERO

    Out of small TVIX hold from yesterday 34 from 35 area, looks like things holding up for likely late day push, will probably stop out of larger day position today from 33.7 unless Godot shows up.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36
  • http://www.captainboom.com/ captainboom

    Yep, watching the grass grow.

  • Jason13

    Julie, you prefer the 233 over the 200?

  • Jason13

    Yeah I see a potential double top short there….

  • mSquare

    Also from Recognia on Jan 31,2019 when their chart chaimed a move 14% possible
    Excerpt:
    Recognia has detected a “Head and Shoulders Bottom” chart pattern formed on iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM:NYSE).

    This bullish signal indicates that the stock price may rise from the close of $149.06 to the range of $168.00 – $172.00.
    The pattern formed over 42 days which is roughly the period of time in
    which the target price range may be achieved, according to standard
    principles of technical analysis.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    SPX gaps up and then goes sideways today just like 2/11 and 2/13 Not exactly gap and goes
    JULIE

  • BKXtoZERO

    evil last minute ramp jobs

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Yes I do Jason
    JULIE

  • Jason13

    Cool, I’ll try that.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    I see a V bottom Not sure where they detect a head and shoulders or an inverse head and shoulders
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb
  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    GG Weekly 10 still below weekly 50 end of week
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com Gold_Gerb

    yeah, that’s the Big One. everything else is peanuts.

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPX&p=W&st=2007-01-01&id=p0243988962c

    it’s feeling like late 2015.

  • Sp00nman

    Ya I agree, you can’t trade based on fundamentals, it just flat out doesn’t work imo. With that said, the “problem” comes from the type of styles people tend to trade. *hat tip* to Scott for some good videos I perused. For those that tend to do more mean reversion style trading, it by definition underperforms in trending markets. People are inherently wired a certain way for them to lean towards a certain style. Learning to overcome our internal biases and “trade the tape” is different for everyone.

  • mSquare
  • Mark Shinnick

    What happened to tqqq hold’em guy?

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    MSquare I see this as an inverted head and shoulder pattern not exactly what they present JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/2b7b9091f0086a37d0cb0e6b2410e5c321540dcae02590b652ccbaeba055a328.png

  • zzezzezz

    SUCH an annoying day…..

  • mSquare

    An IH&S was indeed what I understood from Recognia chart.

    I read these often for ideas and sometimes trade on the chart if I like it for non-TA reasons too. This was one I had traded on and so had saved the alert and chart from 2 weeks ago…

  • ridingwaves

    Go, Go, Go team, biotech has been bery berry good to me….

  • zzezzezz

    Taking a sizable short position now in S&P

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Everyone Happy Holiday and Weekend
    JULIE

  • BKXtoZERO

    Congrats dude….. how is you skin thing? as for MKTs… looking harder and harder to want to try short side.

  • Julie 35 – 25 – 36

    Not me Want a break of the lower trend line and approx 2762 support SPX 60 min chart JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/d7b65d843109b7beaf4319949c2edb96fd879009330cf83d85bf94c8029515fb.png

  • BKXtoZERO

    closed most of TVIX day trade flat, leaving small on again but looks like Bulls are eyeing up bigger things. Glad I didn’t get entrenched anywhere along the way.

  • ridingwaves

    When price goes over yellow line, caution in shorting should be the take..I didn’t think they could get it thru that line…needs to maintain it for week..or it will be similar as last spinning top…

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/2268c00de4f22fbc3343fc5098c9e5966f945d8a9c66b5571e18a2309feb14b5.png

  • BKXtoZERO

    Freak show market for a freak show country I guess…….

  • ridingwaves

    it is what it is……get busy living or get busy dying….life is too fun right now to worry about some skin cancer…

    I have a new thesis on Alzheimers and dementia, about 100 years ago, no one lived past 60, thus the disease was not so apparent if around at all, now everyone is living to 90…wala, dementia, ALZ etc…..

  • ridingwaves

    huh? count your blessings you live here….come on negative nelly…..you have a daughter, be happy…

  • Mark Shinnick
  • Mark Shinnick

    ….Liberty…really is friggin amazing

  • BKXtoZERO

    We are still in somewhat similar boats… My health thing is no fun but forces me to enjoy the enjoyable more while I can.

  • ridingwaves

    many great men and women died defending it, RESPECT…..
    this is the America I remember and long for
    https://www.yahoo.com/gma/hundreds-attend-funeral-wwii-veteran-no-surviving-family-212509668–abc-news-topstories.html

  • BKXtoZERO

    nice

  • BobbyLow

    Yep. I had the fortunate experience of learning from Scott that it was best for me to develop a system that fit my personality and risk tolerence. He really knows his stuff especially how emotion can wreck havoc with our trading if we allow it to do so.

  • Jason13

    Looks like a mixture of ups and downs for this board going into weekend. Congrats to the ups, punch’em back in the nuts downs….next week will be better for you….I took an oil short into the weekend as an inkling and loving my platinum and bonds position which I intend to ride, ride, ride….cheerio, rats.

  • Darkthirty

    Globex hours Monday, closed 12:00 – open 17:00 CST

  • Darkthirty

    Nice call on the platinum!

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    What really is busting my balls is the rampant fucking nihilism and solipsism nowadays, especially among the youth. Never missed a bloody meal or had to face any real hardship but the snowflakes constantly complain about ‘the system’ and how life is so ‘unfair’.

    I have lived on my own since I was 15 years old, had to sleep on park benches and hide in cellars overnight in my early twenties. Tough going and nobody gave a rat’s ass about me. But did I complain or feel sorry about myself? No fucking way.

    Never got a penny from my parents/family – broke as hell and mostly self-taught. I moved to the U.S. in the early 90s with only a few hundred Dollars in my pockets. 10 years later I was a senior engineer in Silicon Valley.

    There is no other place on this planet where I could have done what I did. No other place even comes close.

    Most Americans today simply don’t know how lucky they are having been born in the best bloody country on earth.

  • BKXtoZERO

    They are chipping away at it every day though… open socialists and crazy news cycle. I ignore it as best I can and live but things are pretty crazy in terms of how divided the country is.

  • ElToroLoco

    I am looking at both NQ and ES bear case if there is any ;). If this area holds 2-3 weeks max it is a last kiss area which can down as much as Trump election area (2080 ES) in the upcoming months. if the kiss area doesn’t stop price to new multiyear highs (3060s ES). It is not predicting just curious if it will pierce up this or not and then trade according.

  • Yoda
  • Jason13

    Retail numbers and SPX, is there a correlation here? Historical numbers present. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/0d78818d7d07e1bda59c75e392e14a768d7fd90b5d7631d4fd65c35cf484528b.jpg

  • http://www.captainboom.com/ captainboom

    Very good. Thank you.

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    INsiders selling are more active than buyers at these levels..

  • Radler

    Amen

  • Mark Shinnick

    That’s all true. However, like never before the free market’s natural cycles of economic opportunity have been hijacked.

  • Yoda
  • zzezzezz

    Full moon today: Super Snow Moon @ 10:53 a.m. EST
    https://www.space.com/super-snow-moon-february-2019.html