Discretionary Trading
Now Reading
Coffee Is For Closers!
246

Coffee Is For Closers!

by The MoleOctober 10, 2011

Mole: Let me have your attention for a moment! So you’re talking about what? You’re talking about…(puts out his joint)…bitching about that stop that got hit, some son-of-a-bitch broker that doesn’t let you borrow any Apple shares, that call spread that didn’t get filled, some broad you’re trying to screw and so forth. Let’s talk about something important! Are they all here?
Volar: All but one.
Mole: Well, I’m going anyway. Let’s talk about something important! (to Teddy) Put that coffee down!! Coffee’s for closers only. (Teddy scoffs) Do you think I’m fucking with you? I am not fucking with you. I’m here from downtown. I’m here from Goldman. And I’m here on a mission of mercy. Your name’s Teddy?
Teddy: Yeah.
Mole: You call yourself a bear, you son of a bitch?

You may forgive me for slightly recasting one of the best dialogs ever caught on film but I’ve got a pretty important point to make tonight, so consider this my special way of setting the mood. And now that I caught your attention let me direct you to my first exhibit – which is one of Volar’s chart I am taking the liberty warming up again:

Yes, we are back in the green zone, baby! October can be a very bad month, but often it is actually squarely in the plus. Remember the difference between average and median – on average October is a bloody tosser – on the mean it’s a good month. If you don’t know the difference between average and median then type those two words in the search box on your right and read my pertinent post from way back – which goes into exhaustive detail on the subject matter.

So that’s where we are right now – week 40 out of 52. Twelve more to go – solidly bullish I may add by historical measures – and tomorrow is the start of week 41 which looks like a pretty happy one. The only remaining down swing potential appears to be week 43, starting on October 24 – which may work out well on the timing side as this week brings us the next new moon on October 26th. I don’t want to say any more about that as I don’t like to step on the toes of fellow bloggers. If you are curious about the moon cycle and how it has affected the tape in recent times then look no further than Chris Carolan’s blog – he’s the go to guy in all things cyclical and in that department he’s the one and only person I take seriously.

The point of this post however, my dear stainless steel rats, is that of failure. And like Blake in Glengarry Glen Ross the market does not reward failure – instead there is usually a steep price to be paid. And no, there are no fucking steak knifes for second place either – sorry.

Mole: (to Teddy) The good news is — you’re fired. The bad news is you’ve got, all you got, just three week to regain your jobs, starting tomorrow. Starting with tomorrow’s session. Oh, have I got your attention now? Good!

Alright, now that I have set the table, let’s dig into the good stuff 😉
[amprotect=nonmember]
Charts and commentary below for anyone donning a secret decoder ring. If you are interested in becoming a Gold member then don’t waste time and sign up here. And if you are a Zero or Geronimo subscriber it includes access to all Gold posts, so you actually get double the bang for your buck.
[/amprotect]
[amprotect=1,13,9,12,5]

Let’s start with my trusted P&F charts. The SPX painted a low pole reversal warning, which if you have paid attention is rather bullish. Now that is still a warning only and that’s why you still see the bearish price objective of 1010. Week 43 beckons and I consider that the very last opportunity for the bears in 2011.

Silver is painting a double top break out with a bullish price objective of 41 – that’s sweet but I’d be out at 39.

Of course it’s all about ye ole’ Dollar – and than one is painting a high pole reversal warning. A breach below 77.4 would be painful for the Dollar bulls (too man of them anyway right now).

Hell, I’m just getting warmed up. Here’s my NYA50:NYA200 ratio chart, which is painting new highs! And yes, excessive highs are usually good for a correction (again, week 43 beckons). But that might not resolve until sometime next January.

Junk vs. quality as expressed by FAGIX and VUSTX (look it up – I have shown this chart quite a bit). And what I see is a dismal failure by the equity bears to take advantage of a flight to safety. I have rarely seen such distance between the SPX and this ratio.

Continuing the theme – a quick peek at treasuries – I got myself a nice ratio between the 2-year and 30-year. That new spike up means that there’s a bit more delta on the yield side. This may also tie into the NLSL alert that the ZB futures painted last Friday – this could be very favorable for a continuation lower.

My copper chart paints a similar picture – look how far it dropped after the support line gave way. And then compare that with lackluster equities, which continue to ‘pretend to fall’ – in terms of price however we have not even taken out the long term support stemming back to summer 2010. Miserable failure.

My CPCE Deluxe chart is coming to a point – we have two opposing trends converging. Gee, I can’t wait to see how this one resolves – I’m all giddy 😉

My NYMO:BPNYA – medium term trend vs. long term trend. Completely differently measured however: The McClellan Oscillator is a breadth indicator derived from Net Advances, the number of advancing issues less the number of declining issues. Subtracting the 39-day exponential moving average of Net Advances from the 19-day exponential moving average of Net Advances forms the oscillator. That wasn’t so hard, was it? We are talking breadth here – how many NYSE symbols are pushing higher in relation to the ones that are dropping lower. Now hold that thought.

If you have the that ratio dropping and the SPX is pushing higher then you know something’s fishy is going on. Let me give you an example of just such an event:

Well, we all know what happened next – oooops! 😉

See – once you start thinking this stuff through it actually is becoming useful. The tools are all out there but the problem is that a majority of retail traders are usually to lazy to dig deeper in order to gain a more thorough understanding of how things work. Knowledge is power, my intrepid rats – and profits over the long term.

Now back to my NYMO:BPNYA ratio chart – the latter component, the BPNYA or NYSE Bullish Percent Index, also measures the breadth of the New York Stock Exchange. But it does it based on the number of stocks on Point & Figure buy signals within the NYSE. Fortunately you now are a bit more familiar with P&F charts and thus you understand that the time dimension does not matter when it comes to crossing and circling those magic boxes. It’s all about price – and thus it’s all about the long term trend. Important support and resistance levels become more clear as all the noise in between does not matter and never gets plotted in the first place.

So, why would I put two completely different breadth indicators into a ratio? Well, because I can! And it consistently seems to produce patterns that I am able to leverage. That’s another difference between us human beings and computers – we do have intuitions. Sometimes some crazy concoction just works and as long as we bank coin – why worry about it? 😉

Bottom Line: The bears had every opportunity in the book to walk through that wide open door, but it never happened. There is one final chance for mix things up in week 43 but after that I am getting dressed up for the 2011 fall/winter rally.

I’ll chime in on the short term front tomorrow – until then keep it clean and frosty.

[/amprotect]

Cheers,


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at the usual social media waterholes.
Enjoyed this post? Consider a small donation to keep those evil deeds coming!

BTC: 1MwMJifeBU3YziDoLLu8S54Vg4cbnJxvpL
BCH: qqxflhnr0jcfj4nejw75klmpcsfsp68exukcr0a29e
ETH: 0x9D0824b9553346df7EFB6B76DBAd1E2763bE6Ef1
LTC: LUuoD6sDWgbqSgnpo5hceYPnTD9MAvxi6c

  • Anonymous

    Mole,  you posted two P&F charts of Bucky – I believe you wanted to post one of them as silver since you were talking of silver having a high pole reversal warning.  

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Unforgivable – let me repent.

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Fixed – damn, I really screwed that one up – LOL

  • Anonymous

    Ah you’re forgiven, but only cuz you turned me onto Andy Hunter, thanks!  BTW, you’re right that would’ve been quite the coincidence with the dollar and silver.

  • Anonymous

    Peculiarly, spx futures seem to be moving, even though its a holiday in the USofA

  • Anonymous

    Nice post Morning Pals. I woke up late today..So how is the crew doing today? UH UH!

  • Anonymous
  • Anonymous

    hello! anyone there.

  • Anonymous

    HELLO……Hello…….hello…….eiio….

  • Anonymous

     http://thisbrownngirl.files.wordpress.com/2011/04/rollingtumbleweed.gif

  • Anonymous

    Surprising, even with the markets closed, the cash spx is up 20 points
     

  • Anonymous

    NYSE isnt closed today.

  • Anonymous

    Wow! Blew right by 1170! Next target 1195-1200 SPX, Huh?

  • Anonymous

    Mole, the normal definition of average is exactly the arithmetic mean (unless you’re talking about average annual compounded return, in which case you need to use the geometric mean). If you are defining “average” to be something different, then it would be more helpful (and accurate) to say what you’re really talking about, like the geometric mean, harmonic mean, median, mode, quadratic mean, etc.

    (I did the search you suggested and came up with dozens of posts, none of whose titles seemed to mention these terms, unless I missed something.)

  • volar

    mole did you mean (no pun intended)

    median vs average

    or mean vs. average?

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    “Kindly note that the U.S. bond market and the Federal Reserve Bank
    of New York will be closed on the Columbus Day
    holiday”

    expect shenanigans. I hear the bond market was closed on the ripping reversal (Oct 04th)

  • Anonymous

    Bonds are closed; stocks are open.

  • Anonymous

    yea the two other markets that really matter. currency and bond. Stock market is childs play.

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    It’s T time, what did you expect?
    😉

  • Ted Gresch

    The limit?

  • Anonymous
  • volar

    i think he meant median.

    or the 3 outliers of 87,08 etc skew the data- to make OCT look like it is a bad month

  • Anonymous

    I’m watching the ZLs go down, while the SPX/ES go up.

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    are you serious!?  what time frame.

  • Anonymous

    5min and 1 hr

  • Anonymous

    rsi showing a short term negative divergence here as well (15 min bars).  Haven’t pulled any triggers today though.

  • Anonymous
  • Anonymous

    Only the BIG GUNs like myself are authorised to trade bonds and currency 🙂

  • Anonymous

    given light volume today due to holiday, I would think that a lot of short term indicators are going to be giving anomalous signals as they will be comparing to higher participation data from Friday and a lot of the big boys are not at their screens today.

  • Anonymous

    Zero doesnt seem to be buying this to me…is that how you guys read it?

  • Anonymous

    Limit-up rule invoked?

  • Anonymous

    Looking like this might be a trend day.

  • Anonymous

    Right about that GG!

  • Anonymous

    I doubt it

  • Anonymous

    wow, this market is getting sicker and sicker every day. The moves are just so violent and wacko, that i am begining to ask myself if human traders are totally extinct here or what. I’ve never seen these kind of moves before this last year or so.

  • Anonymous

    I hope you are right.  

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    that’s why you need a rat pack.
    intelligent strength in numbers.
    welcome to ES.

  • Anonymous

    Let it be so:)

  • Anonymous

    We have negative divergences everywhere. The ramp has overstayed its welcome IMO.

  • Anonymous

    bah, markets are just preparing to go up another 3% any time now. it would not surprise me. or maybe it still would, i dunno…

    btw, i see that NQ 5 min RSI(9) reached 98% or so. wow.

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    update on my blog.

    (imitation is a form of flattery)

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    DOW 266.
    off to serve The Man.

    Ciao.

  • Anonymous

    Being a tad sarcastic Gsavli?

    😉

  • Anonymous
  • Anonymous

    i intended to be, but honestly – i’m not so sure anymore. 🙂

  • Anonymous

    Well, I am adding some more shorts. Looks well done for now.

  • http://pulse.yahoo.com/_H5BURHOFJI6RQA43MXYDTJLTKA J

    do u think TVIX will trade in the range 68-80?

  • TwinTurboRX7

    But it stays positives on both hourly and 5mins.
    The only divergences is AUDJPY on both hourly and 5mins on zerofx.
    However it has been doing that since last night without producing any negatives or downturn.

  • Anonymous

    Yes I agree…just wondering how people read it as this is only my 5th day w/ zero

  • Anonymous

    it looks like, yes. but this decline is still very slow in comparison to the first hour rally. i will be watching behaviour around EMA20 5 min (and if it falls through, at 1h) closely.

  • Anonymous

    RSI has been diverging since the gap up on 10/5.

  • Anonymous

    short term scalp on the downside seems highly probable – upside momentum has worn out; downside has yet to start seriously though.  I think spx 1080 or so as a retracement target seems to be likely at some point today.  However, it sure seems hesitant to go down so far.  

  • Anonymous

    1080? 

  • Anonymous

    Gerb – you have to give me a link somewhere to decipher those T’s.  I have never heard of them before and can’t make much of your charts without some background to what they are and how they are drawn?

  • Anonymous

    Looks like a perfect 5 waves rally from the low of 1074. We are also building the right shoulder of an Inv. H&S.

  • Anonymous

    Uh-Oh…you said “waves”

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Yes, I did – sorry guys it was VERY late when I wrote this.

  • Anonymous

    OOPS – meant 1180.  What’s a hundred points?

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Median – yes yes – sorry, it was late. You can correct it if you like. Just fell out of bed.

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Exactly.

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Anonymous

    absolutely no sellers here. feels like continuation of this rally.

  • Anonymous

    Remember, T is for closers too 🙂

  • Anonymous

    According to my friend Jessie James, no stock is too high to buy 🙂

  • Anonymous

    Still room for higher prices! Waiting for 30 min & hourly!

  • Anonymous

    i’m watching for a test of VWAP.  Then, yes, lots of room for higher prices, just wondering how much room there is TODAY for much higher prices before some kind of a retracement.  

  • Anonymous

    Watching resistence @ 1195-1205

  • Anonymous
  • nyse

    Guys, worth taking a look at this: http://www.scribd.com/doc/68217554
    He has been pretty much spot on for the last year I have been reading him. Page 5 and 28 will be of particular interest. Enjoy.

  • Anonymous

    Really good analysis. Thanks

  • volar

    death cross? do not make me go there.. imagination land

    http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/08/worry-about-important-things-not-the-death-cross/

    i have about 8 more articles, but just trust the data guy: death cross= MMM= waste of time

  • volar

    i think jason at Sentiment trader has over 50 or so entire articles showing that the death cross is 50 50 on a good day with nice massive drawdowns 

  • nyse

    I know, I know… Overall he’s been pretty good though. He’s no Volar, but he’s preeeeetty good 😉

  • Anonymous

    NFLX up 10% taday and has now sold off!

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    My bull friend is sobbing.
    he wanted to short the gap close.
    didn’t pull the trigger.
    “coulda woulda shoulda”.

  • Anonymous

    Could play out for a good long right now!

  • Anonymous

    wow. looks stupid.

  • Anonymous

    apparently, NFLX was. 🙂

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    i’d rather long the Q’s.
    look at it!
    ramp and camp!
    just waiting to assault 57.
    😉

    but wait! Volar said don’t chase gap opens.
    it’s a Holiday. shenaigans.

  • Anonymous

    That looks nasty for nflx!

  • Kudos

    What pitiful volume. Guess its easy to push the market up when the bond market is closed an no one is around. Yes, only price matters at the end of the day, but at the end of today I will be increasing my hedge to get closer to delta neutral

  • Kudos

    As did I. Shoulda, woulda couda but didn’t

  • Anonymous

    Darn it!  I want volitality back! 

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Moving on – let’s not waste our time even discussing it… sheeesh…

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Regarding the ‘death cross’ or ‘dark cross’:

    Of course there yet again is method to seeing that on the financial news as well as finding it in retail trader frequented trading publications. And I will boil this down to one simple paragraph for you guys à la David Mamet:

    The myth of an edge is worse than not having any edge at all. Chasing an imaginary edge is the gateway through which retail traders advance from trading purgatory into eternal hell.

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    it Columbus Day, go mow the grass.
    😉

  • Anonymous
  • Anonymous

    Mole – Hourly Zero, is it affected by the low vol or is that signal credible?

  • Kudos

    Signal is always credible! 0.5 to -0.5 doesnt quite mean anything though

  • Anonymous

    has there been a Hindenberg omen recently?  Usually see a cluster of articles and “end of days” commentaries whenever it shows up.  Given that it “predicts” a pull back within 6 months and the pull back can be relatively shallow to qualify as a “win”, my sense was that it was always right and always useless last time I looked at it.  

  • Ted Gresch
  • Anonymous

    Interesting fact, market rallied 11% on no volume on columbus day 2008 and then fell 40%
    over next few months. 

  • Anonymous

    No, no mention of it recently, but there was last year, as you say ‘end of days’ nonsense talk then!

  • nyse

    Here is the short version of what I posted earlier: http://www.scribd.com/doc/68221812

    BTW, no “death cross” nonsense mentioned here…

  • Ted Gresch

    Not a trend day but shaping up nicely as a “reversal” day.

  • Anonymous

    That is an interesting fact;)

  • Anonymous

    Thx. Where did you get it from?

  • Anonymous

    Does anyone who knows about ZL divergences have a comment on the Fri(am)-Mon(mid-day) Peaks on the hourly vs /ES?

  • nyse

    I just signed up for his “free trial”, but that was like 9 months ago. Perhaps Im still on the list or something bc I get all the reports right away. He sends out 3 per month. Google: Gordon T Long for his website. I think he does a nice job marrying macro analysis with technical analysis.

  • Anonymous

    Lower high maybe? Needs to stay above 107.31. Double bottom right now, tagged it exactly! Long with a tight stop

  • Anonymous

    end of day ramp to top it off?

  • Anonymous

    what a great day!!!! Lets see more rampage tomorrow!!!

  • Anonymous

    Even nflx managed end-of-day rally, lol!

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Q’s 55.94 – 

    !@#$$

  • Anonymous
  • Anonymous

    I gotta say this is the best site I have been on…..the zero is a Godsend and the advice is priceless…thank you Mole, Volar and Fearless as well as everyone else

  • Anonymous

    When you feel like this time to book your profits!

  • Anonymous

    Are you short or long Aussie? Better to build up short positions on rallies like today. Talking long term weekly trades.

  • Anonymous

    I’m long. Sorry let me clarify, red is up for and blue is down for me.

  • Anonymous

    still long but we r getting close to a pb imo

  • Anonymous

    Nice work! I got out of Aussie short when dollar index reached 80. Now I will start adding aud/usd shorts. Long way down.

  • volar
  • Tronacate
  • Anonymous

    Zero is a very nice insurance policy to be sure.  Most of the afternoon, you could see pretty clearly that the upside momentum had petered out and it was only a matter of time before a little retracement took place.  There were a couple of false alarms, but none of them would have been fatal had you followed them and waited.  When the retracement began (right on cue at 3pm!),  I banked a few shekels on the way down and zero very neatly said when it was time to say “thank you” and cash out before 3:30.  Were I greedy, I might have ridden those last 20 mins in the opposite direction, but this is all about managing risk and making good money not great money in my book.  All’s well that ends well.  Great resource.  Also pays to remember that you’re not here for a long time – just a good time.  No harm in staying out till all the pieces look to be in place.

  • Anonymous

    While it does look familiar, it also suggest that you can wear rally caps for a couple of months at least.  Have I read it wrong?

  • Tronacate
  • Anonymous

    have any charts? i want to see a different point if you dont mind.

  • Anonymous

    At last, new folks saying something sensible round here 🙂

  • Tronacate

    maybe…….there is some compression timewise……..just pointing out resemblances……not suggesting we are headed one way or another

  • Anonymous

    Oooh death cross.. must short euro…. Well sometimes it does work out look at the chart for the previous time. Similar to saying head and shoulders. Sometimes it works out. Sometimes not. What ever. I will be shorting the euro soon and if it goes to 1.5 I will short it some more. This time we are headed for parity! After the bounce fixes your sentiment numbers Volar of course.

  • Anonymous

    I’m thinking of signing up for Zero.  Is there a specific system requirement?  I trade through IB.

    Thanks

  • Anonymous

    I’m thinking of signing up for Zero.  Is there a specific system requirement?  I trade through IB.

    Thanks

  • Anonymous

    I trade long term. Weekly monthly setups. I dont have the time to do short term trades. Aussie is massively overvalued based on China story. China is slowing down. Cracks are appearing in the Aussie housing which is bigger than the US housing bubble. Once we see employment numbers slow down and unemployment numbers increase it will be the final straw. I would be short until 0.8 and see if that holds. Not sure if we could get down to 0.6. http://www.debtdeflation.com/blogs/2011/05/09/land-of-the-tweedles/

    http://www.scribd.com/doc/58518527/Third-Quarter-2011-GTAA-Currencies

  • Anonymous

    Its going to be the same story for copper and commodities.

  • Anonymous

    Long on one site cash on another HMMMMM?

  • Anonymous

    No, all you need is a web browser. I use my iphone a lot:)

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    ????????????????????????????????­??????????????

    D   A   I    L   Y      Z   E   R   O     H   A   S      B   E    E   N      U   P   D   A   T   E   D

    ????????????????????????????????­???????????????

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    What he said.

  • TwinTurboRX7

    GG, any updates to the T?

  • Ted Gresch

    Very good indeed. I have done some work with fib time using freestockcharts and discovered this quarter will likely result in an uptrend followed by disaster next year with the bottom likely to occur in the Sept. – Oct. timeframe. I’ll post the charts under the new thread later this evening.   

  • Anonymous

    Hmmm. Where is the liquidity going to come from to keep the markets going up that long?

  • volar

    Honey badger ringtons now available

    http://www.zedge.net/ringtone/1323102/

    😛

  • Ted Gresch

    This is a continuation of my reply to Tronacate below. Both of these charts were done in freestockcharts. Using Fib Time I placed the zero at the top of the market and spread the line one out to the first significant drop in the market. The rest of the lines were automatically set. Notice what occurred between the middle of line one and the beginning line two and of course the movement between line two and line five. Will history repeat itself? This is what one does when He is left at the station. Both are weekly charts.   

  • Ted Gresch

    See above charts. It may only last until mid December. I’m expecting a pull back any day now followed by a more gradual advance. This action would diminish the the bearish sentiment and thus set the bulls up for the ultimate slaughter. The stock market can move up as investors sell bonds and invest in stocks.   

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    the /ES version failed to reverse today.  (I’m not happy about it, but poop happens)

    don’t ask me why I haven’t been watching SPX, but there it is:
    [SPX]
    http://tinypic.com/r/70gsw4/7

     will tomorrow be another disappointment?
    if so, just BTFD and go long till TurkeyDay.

    -GG out

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    It’s just a web page on auto-reload. You can easily do it on a mobile phone or an iPad – that’s what I do when I travel.

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Thank you – took a few years to scrape together this community but we’re all having fun and are banking coin.

  • nyse

    Ooops. Missed that one. He must be an idiot. My fault for posting and wasting everyone’s time. Please disregard.

  • Anonymous

    No one thinks that’s a text book divergence? Hmmm… are the peaks too far apart?

  • Tronacate

    I seen it…….looks like a huge divergence to me…….but I’m not an experienced zero man…….but looking back at the prior div……and the resulting drop….it’s certainly something to keep in mind……

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    This kid learns fast! 🙂

    Hey get yourself an avatar so that we can recognize you in the future.

  • volar

    no not saying he is an idiot- just saying that the “death cross” should be called, “random lines on chart that somebody called bearish one day and everybody now takes seriously for no logical reason.” One comment does not make him an idiot mate. I am not like that- I am just very critical, analytical.

    Consider how many people think a “20% decline” = bear market

    historically “20%” decline= nothing more or less than a 20% decline IMO.

    20% means what? Nothing. why not 16.43327%? And what number of days does one use for a drawdown?

    so let me vent a bit:

    data on DJIA -15% (we never hit 20 yet on a close basis)

    http://content.screencast.com/users/wprosser/folders/Jing/media/45b148ef-685a-4c05-8a11-9db615fd0da0/2011-10-10_1707.png

    it has 0 indication of a bear market… BTFD has a slight positive expectancy if you buy every single close past 15%.

    http://content.screencast.com/users/wprosser/folders/Jing/media/300095d2-6e5b-4fc1-b818-04cdbcb7a640/2011-10-10_1710.png

    or if we fall 30 we are in a bear market? whoopdy doo…

  • Tronacate

    WHere’s the daily zero????

  • Tronacate

    Where does the daily ZERO reside???

  • Anonymous

    Time for bed. Im long DOW(chem), but lets see if we break the trading range !

    Remember:
    http://images.icanhascheezburger.com/completestore/2008/2/21/coffeeisfor128480832580781250.jpg

  • nyse

    (I hope you did not take my response as snarky; further, I hope you do not hate me like I now hate myself for using a word I vowed to never use, namely “snarky”. Please forgive me.)

    This actually makes a lot of sense to me. I always had such a problem with these heuristics (“rules of thumb”), such as “the death cross”, particularly those that focus on “round” numbers like that. This point in particular hit home with me:
    “20% means what? Nothing. why not 16.43327%?”

    Like, what is so statistically significant about 20%? I remember reading an article in 1999 about the Y2K scare and it made the point that 2000 was just as statistically likely to occur as any other number, so what’s the big deal with 2000 then?

    I have more of an econ/stats background, so you work makes a lot more sense to me than standard technical analysis, which is lagging and wrought with false heuristics, IMO. I am trying to find an approach to trading that I can make my own/that make sense to me, and what I like about this gent I posted is that he kind of marries the econ/fundamentals/long-term factors with the short term technical analysis. Frankly, I dont understand/am not familiar with much of the TA he uses as support for his stance, but I have been impressed with his general calls on market direction, corrections, etc.

    I am trying to make sense of all this shit, and the criticisms I get from people that I look up to (i.e., you) is helpful in finding what is worth spending time on and what is not. Again, I am not a TA guy and am not married to any of that stuff. In short, I appreciate your reply and the support you have provided. In any case, I think his theory is inline with the direction you have indicated with your last couple of posts, which is up for now.

  • nyse

    Here I think: https://evilspeculator.com/?page_id=2472

  • Anonymous

    if you like techno you should check out http://www.liveset.org. lots of good mixes on there.

  • volar

    sorry mate- nothing personal in my comment – was a vent about CNBC today. And definitely not snarkly 😉

    And i was not trying to criticize his work- it was just more of an FYI on the deathcross. If you like his work, i think you will really like GTAA. Does much more indepth and IMO, does a nice job.

  • nyse

    All good, brov.

    This was a hilarious gem, BTW:””random lines on chart that somebody called bearish one day and everybody now takes seriously for no logical reason.”Have a good night.

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Did you look at the Zero page in the menu bar?

    https://evilspeculator.com/zero/zero_daily.png

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool
  • Tronacate

    Yes I’m a tard…..thanks

  • Anonymous

    Right, volar, median would make sense if the intent is to exclude outliers. It wasn’t clear to me WHAT the intent was.

    Other options for excluding outliers would be the truncated mean or its variations – http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Average .

  • http://pulse.yahoo.com/_N2BRXG3E35GXBXZTEBSXLUSDCM B

    Mole do you have to be a paid sub at stockcharts to make those ratio charts, like NYA50:NYA200?

  • Mitch Martin

    http://img705.imageshack.us/img705/5493/spx10102011.png

    Here is a look at my long-term $SPX chart & why I anticipated a bounce last week off $SPX 1100 + or -. Comments & constructive criticism are always welcome.

    Best,
    MM

  • nyse

    DO IT.

  • Ted Gresch
  • Anonymous
  • http://standardpoor.wordpress.com/ standard_and_poor
  • http://standardpoor.wordpress.com/ standard_and_poor

    roadmap for tues. for anyone interested.  click on my name next to avatar for the link.

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Yeah, pretty much – it’s a pain and I wish there was a cheaper competitor.

  • Daniel Kirstein

    for some reason I cannot pay through Paypal for past few days…is there another way to pay for Zero feed? credit card? thank you

  • Anonymous

    fff

  • Anonymous

    Hello Friends. I had a look at a long term SPX chart this morning and I see we are again testing the underside of the upper boundary of a channel. The lower line is from the October 2002 low, to the March 2009 low. The upper line is parallel to this one, drawn from the March 2000 high. I expect you all have this one on your charts. Today it is at about 1194. I think it is probably an important line.

  • Anonymous

    Its not that simple. Moving money from bonds to stocks makes no sense. Its a similar argument to “cash on the sidelines”. I had a similar talk with someone from here a few months ago.
    http://www.hussman.net/wmc/wmc060710.htm

  • Anonymous

    The entire thing is a huge ponzi scheme. You need fresh moneyto keep things going up. This could be QE or loans. If loans do not go up and no QE then bye bye rally. Take a look at the recent consumer credit numbers. Remember in our monetary system loans = new money printed. Yes banks “print” money when you take a loan. Yes its virtual but it counts unless you cant pay it off. Then the money goes to money heaven. i hope you understand.

  • jacksoo

    The whole god darn thing is a ponzi scheme new.  Can u imagine how mom&pop wld react if Fox News said “the reason your stocks keep bouncing around like a yo-yo is so Wall St can take your money from you on the dips and the gains – – nothing to do with markets thats just the just the fancy dress we drape around this clown to confuse you all. So keep throwing your money in the pit until they’ve extracted it all please” EDIT: now the trick for us, knowing its all BS is to snag just a tiny portion before Wall St gets its grubby hands on it.

  • Anonymous

    hello morning pals! Coffee in, work out in, breakfast in and now time to kick some ass today.

  • Anonymous

    http://content.screencast.com/users/AMCabrera/folders/Jing/media/97d95bcf-dbdc-4853-89ea-2c74bb2e7625/2011-10-11_0719.png
    http://content.screencast.com/users/AMCabrera/folders/Jing/media/664b9f28-8d26-4f5a-8955-926cb6601790/2011-10-11_0718.png
    http://content.screencast.com/users/AMCabrera/folders/Jing/media/a12de050-d23f-4291-98c7-0bba67482586/2011-10-11_0717.png
    http://content.screencast.com/users/AMCabrera/folders/Jing/media/1b1ee413-67ec-4b8f-a302-a7b55be06db5/2011-10-11_0726.png

    As noted yesterday I took a early and little profit of 20 pips from the aud/usd. I will keep a close on on the pair because in shorter term its does seem like a good buy but looking at the one day month chart you can see we are headed towards pyshco terri. I will be shorting the Usd/Zar again.  Last but not least a punt if you will the eur/gbp it is falling to close below the bb I will go long here with tight stop but letting profits run deep in which then i will switch to trailing stop.

  • Schwerepunkt

    S-L-O-V-A-K-I-A

    W-T-F?  

    Anyone really believe the fate of mankind rests in the hands of this itsy-bitsy, teeny-weeny, yellow, polka dot bikini?  Not me, but it might be good for a few ES points either way. Personally, I hope they vote the measure down just for shits and giggles. I wonder if any of these fine parliamentarians might be positioned long or short the Euro?  

  • Anonymous

     after reading many history books wouldn’t be surprise for it to start WW 3. people are silly you know.

  • Anonymous

    http://content.screencast.com/users/AMCabrera/folders/Jing/media/716155b6-b0f8-4782-871b-e57886a2f81a/2011-10-11_0850.png
    Moment of truth for futures. I would be extra cautious with a pop higher as there are more than likely many buy orders lined up above the bb.

  • Anonymous

    http://content.screencast.com/users/AMCabrera/folders/Jing/media/10cc5221-ffe3-480c-bbff-ca412ec82fc3/2011-10-11_0856.png
    But  in short view this may be good for squeeze higher because of SD being rewound again.

  • Anonymous

    Zero is down, at least it is for me

    Back on now

  • Anonymous

    Ok here rone

  • Anonymous

    Daily Zero needs an update.

  • Anonymous

    Nevermind – cache…

  • Anonymous

    As I see it, cash SPX hovered between 1185 and 1190 for most of yesterday.  But for the gyrations of the last half hour of yesterday, it is still in precisely that zone.  Unless and until there is a breakout in either direction with some confirmation from Zero or your favorite TA signals that it can be traded, little point in breaking a sweat. 

  • Anonymous

    No sooner do I hit “send” than away she goes above the range.  Time to start studying….

  • Anonymous

    Dont worry about it mate.  The market has a habit of making monkeys of us all from time to time.

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    morning rats, 
    I do not intend to win a set of steak knives.

    SPY love
    http://i55.tinypic.com/34e2nif.png

  • nyse

    Yo! Lets get it man..

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Not down – just flat.

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Why anyone bothers to pay attention to all this nonsense is beyond me…. Read a good book instead.

  • Anonymous

    Alright, opening gap closed.

  • Anonymous

    Looking quite bullish at the moment with the exception of NFLX, it just shit itself again with a new low.

  • Anonymous

    It’s breaking out on the upside, so far zero suggests not falling in love with this move. 

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    He’s pumped! :-))

  • Anonymous

    ZL starting to show some life.

  • Anonymous

    This market is perched on the edge of reason,
    But it can remain there longer than you can remain solvent

  • Anonymous

    dropped off the bed this a.m.?

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    it’s like a rocket.
    it will go until the last bull is on.
    at that point Wil-E-coyote, not a moment sooner.
    😉

  • Anonymous

    Market is gay this morning. We may finally get that spike to short.

  • Kudos

    AUD/JPY and copper are down. Guess the market don’t care for now

  • Anonymous

    Loading tza here for a trade

  • Anonymous

    Guys forgetting the medium (or slightly longer than short) term, I cannot believe we will slice through 1,180 without some sort of retest? 

    And on Mole’s theme of this all being manipulated, wouldn’t a Slovak no vote be the perfect, after-the-fact excuse for such a retest?  I think the thing that would hurt people the most right now would be a drop of some sort, as everyone has gotten ridiculously bullish again, all based on very little that I can see.

    Going short here at 11,433 Dow with a tight stop.

    Not making any predictions about bullishness or bearishness, just that I really think we need to explore the volume air pocket that was created yesterday.

  • Anonymous
  • Anonymous

    ditto, it would be weird if we hadn’t had some sort of retest.

  • Anonymous

    Sold half of tza at 1r, put entry level stop on back half, now just enjoy the ride.
    Man that was quick

  • Anonymous

    Something of interest regarding SPX 30 min chart: The RSI (14) has remained above the value of 50 for over a week. To me this shows relative strength;)

  • Anonymous

    NDX hasn’t budged- still up about .5% and made no move to follow other indexes when they traded off a bit  in the last half hour.  TLT starting to trend back down as well.  Market seems happier going up than down here – all can change and zero is hardly giving a clinic in conviction here.

  • Anonymous

    Missed the ride in JVA
    Do i chase a rising stock – no let it go.

  • Anonymous

    http://content.screencast.com/users/AMCabrera/folders/Jing/media/bda56bf3-e42e-4fdb-8386-cc2de2b02d5e/2011-10-11_1143.png
    why your grandfather is still waiting for 29 crash…mean time why not profit for the ride up. shhh quiet quiet I know as does the market the amount of debt out there. here some music to keep clam and when the moment is right we can ride this whore down. http://www.youtube.com/watch?NR=1&v=XNRttN9fYr0

  • Anonymous

    Synard I see nothing to indicate this up trend will change anytime real soon

  • Tronacate

    What’s the automatic zero page address again…..

  • nyse

    Just go to the zero link above and clik on the top picture, it will take you to a page that you can auto refresh and see the real-time zero updated

  • Anonymous

    deags, just like to see other potential elements to satisfy my confidence for positions.

  • Anonymous

    Take that same chart and change the scale to LINEAR.

    You will see a PARABOLIC RISE through to year 2000

  • Anonymous

    Yes but building a nice case for sure

  • Anonymous

    I”m a little fuzzy on getting it to autorefresh…I gotta refresh it myself

  • nyse

    I like your style, Cabrera.

  • nyse

    What browser do you use? There are add-ins available for most (not sure about IE)
    (CTRL+R works too)

  • Anonymous

    firefox 

    I usually hit refresh icon or F5

  • Anonymous

    This is not to say that one should not participate in a rising market. but high-beta stocks might be ones to buy before they go ‘parabolic’ or to buy on a pull-back.

  • nyse

    Give this a go: http://goo.gl/VZeg2

  • Anonymous

    http://content.screencast.com/users/AMCabrera/folders/Jing/media/69888c78-fcec-4f02-b52b-7908ee145b45/2011-10-11_1207.png
    http://content.screencast.com/users/AMCabrera/folders/Jing/media/55f9e462-c27a-4d86-b831-dc84175519eb/2011-10-11_1216.png

    Oh no doubt it has. No point in arguing that the market was flying right back to mid 90s levels when this Frankenstein of a market came alive in mid 90s as noted in the SDs. And I still theorize that the measures taken in 08 were not to lift markets back above mid 2000s levels rather coast it down to mid 90s levels. But mean time I will try my best to take advantage of the swings. I will feel bearish again when this market tries to claw back to 1300s.

  • Anonymous

    Thanks I try.

  • nyse

    Looks like we got a little divergence coming on the zero?

  • Anonymous

    Will it be different this time?
    Are we destined for yet another vwap-aloo-la spx 1120 retest soon?
    according to marty chenard c-rsi is going upwards (i.e. has been diverging as spx going down, suggesting possible break upwards for spx?)

  • Anonymous

    yup – not buying the upward drift in my book. 

  • Anonymous
  • Anonymous

    looks like a butterfly to me.

  • Anonymous

    Does it sting like a bee?

  • Anonymous

    SPX testing the rising wedge.

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    The leads are weak.
    this video is stuck in my HEAD!

    update on my blog [SPX]
    -GG

  • nyse

    “The leads are weak? The fukin’ leads are weak? You’re weak.”

    (later)
    “You don’t like it..leave.”

    (me too.)

  • Anonymous

    Thanks GG….if we cant break higher here then do you see 116 next spx?

  • Anonymous

    It’s funny when the market gets to extremes, the media always blames ETFs as if high volume traders are actually using them instead of futures.

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    I think that would be a safe assumption.
    there is a lot of cluster moves between 1150 & 1170.

  • Anonymous

    Thank yo!!

  • Anonymous

    i dont know from the empirical analysis i would venture to say that, i blame it on the goose…

  • Anonymous

    Nice little fakeout breaking the wedge pattern.

  • Tronacate

    FSLR took out the yearly low earlier and is just breaking out of a low adx coil after the bounce off the bottom……..

  • nyse

    Good post kid. THanks.

  • Tronacate

    SWEET CHART GG

  • Anonymous

    GG nice posts i was just reviewing them.

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    GG has a rule of no positions before FOMC.  
    (i’m just not that good…or is it stupid? hehe)

    GG will be looking for some hot mama up candle/spike outside the bollinger hints)
    they make excellent inverted T post anchors.

    cheers!

  • Schwerepunkt

    If this tree ring fails to contain price, are we talking 1250-60?  

  • Schwerepunkt

    This is just release of the minutes — not the release of a decision. A look at the bits and pieces before they were stuffed into the intestines and called “sausage.”  Not for the squeamish; better with a bottle of Beamish.

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    ¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨
    ¨°º¤ø„¸ N E W „ø¤º°¨
    ¸„ø¤º°¨ P O S T “°º¤ø„¸
    ¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°º¤ø„¸

  • https://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Wow, we almost at a Sparta here…

  • Anonymous

    I’m not good at reading between the lines mate, please spell it out for me 🙂

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    yes.
    the gobi desert.

  • Anonymous

    I wish someone would come out on Fox news and actually say it! Would be awesome.I was just trying to remind Ted that money cannot flow from bonds to stocks. Same for the money on the sidelines theory. It doesnt work that way. Markets are a ponzi scheme. Liquidity is the only thing keeping it up. Liquidity can be loans as in the housing bubble of the Fed “Easing”. Without either rallies cannot last.

  • nyse

    Think he means almost 300 comments. “THIS IS SPARTA!”