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Coiled Up Ready To Strike
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Coiled Up Ready To Strike

by The MoleApril 10, 2018

Despite being a discretionary trader I am not much of a gambler. As a matter of fact I hate gambling with the same passion I devote to trading. Which may sound strange to some as game theory inherently adopts many of the disciplines and statistical approaches employed in trading the financial markets.

Thus I recognize that the line between gambling and trading is blurry at best. Which however makes it even more crucial to constantly monitor one’s action and to err on the conservative side when taking a trade is even remotely close to constituting a gamble.

Although I do grant myself the occasional ‘lottery ticket’ it is always backed up by technical analysis giving it a better than 30% chance for a high payoff. What I do not ever do, no matter how convincing the technical evidence, is to bet the bank on a directional move.

In the end of course all of this is highly debatable and it seems that everyone needs to draw that fine line on their account. Which sort of reminds me of the difficulties in defining pornography.

In 1964, Justice Potter Stewart tried to explain “hard-core” pornography, or what is obscene, by saying, “I shall not today attempt further to define the kinds of material I understand to be embraced… [b]ut I know it when I see it …”

My modus operandi is to use the same approach when it comes to the difference between trading and gambling πŸ˜‰

So why the long intro? Well, because quite frankly the current formation developing all across equity indices constitutes one of the nastiest churn zone of the past few years. It’s got all the right ingredients to make life hell for anyone but the most stone cold hard nosed swing traders:

  • Explosive changes in both directions.
  • Long wicks on the hourly panel marking turns on a dime.
  • Confusing price action in general due to intra-day volatility.
  • Overlapping candles taking turns on the daily.
  • Event risk looming ahead (see below).

Unfortunately it’s that time of the month again for everyone – tomorrow we are graced with this month’s FOMC minutes followed by the ECB accounts the morning after.

Which means that resolution of the current churn zone will most likely happen somewhere between those two events and most likely explosively.

And that in turn means getting sucked into a directional trade anywhere near the center of the current churn zone is tantamount to gambling. And you now know my perspective on that.

Crude is making a run for it, which is the type of move I was hoping of catching. However once again we are looking at a market that turns on a dime and doesn’t give you much time once it explosively takes off.

A retest lower would constitute a high probably entry opportunity in my book but the odds for that are low. Traditionally crude keeps running once it switches into short squeeze mode.

We may however get a nice entry opportunity in the bond futures after Wednesday afternoon. Before that I wouldn’t want to test my luck inside the current rising channel on the daily.

As the pickings are slim right now I’m keeping my two favorite charts of the day for my intrepid subs:

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About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at the usual social media waterholes.
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  • Mark Shinnick

    Yeah…gambling scares the hell out of me. Occasional lotto tickets also seem like good business.

  • Dyellowflash

    I do gamble on soccer a few times a year when I get good odds on Liverpool. Bet 1R on Liverpool to win Man City at home for UCL last week Half Time and Full Time and won 4.9R lol my 1R = about 8k usd …. Poor bookie lol πŸ˜‰

  • StockTalker

    -2 /YM avg 24338

  • HD

    Another chance to scale into 2650

  • Dyellowflash

    i am short term short. very short term.

  • Dyellowflash

    probably from 945 to 1002 US time

  • HD
  • StockTalker

    Market wants to intimidate you.

  • Brishort

    I guess it’s working!

  • StockTalker

    Lol

  • Brishort

    What seems clear is that we had a sort of valid retest of the FEB lows and we are above. The suspicion at this point is that the previous low will hold and the market is indeed trying to paint a floor. But short term signals are extremely difficult since all positioning is still in a “trading range” as Scott would say, even if extremely large. Mole guidance above is clear as to where the landmines are. We must all trade more carefully than usual. For me it meant recently going to much much shorter intervals and try to be super disciplined reading the chart signals.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Volatility,,, still looking like Chicken Little’s boogieman.

  • HD

    well said. The landmines are news driven. Over 100 handles of gaps on that 12 day chart alone. Last week on the exhaustion gap 4/4 I was thinking the market got very dangerous and noted I would be trading 1/2 size. Now we have another exhaustion gap it seems.

  • StockTalker

    Both bulls and bears trapped right now.

  • StockTalker

    -3 /YM

  • Brishort

    No clear signal as to what comes up in next few hours. Zero needs a few more bars to clear up its message.

    5 things of note. thinking out loud for trading clues monitoring plan:

    i) market about 1.5% higher than yesterday, VIX is about the same value as yesterday’s close. Currently interpreted as no conviction either side. Hence even MM seem just as confused as to right positioning.
    ii) very close to cloud resistance on all charts up to 10 minutes, hence no signals here, could play eitherside. Currently could be a “retest”, so should become clearer in a few bars for the rest of the day direction.
    iii) about 50% retracement of overnight move achieved on NDX, hence may have touched a floor extremely short term. But on the theory of “if expected does not pan out, opposite move is that much stronger” also at play.
    iv) NYUPV volume very strong and NYDNV very weak. Which would mean that bull positioning has the be favored and short positions are less likely to succeed, again, extremely short term.
    v) systematic trading system on 1 min intervals currently on sell, but about to turn to buy. This system has been extremely good recently at catching movements, simple MA cross 14-61-72 Currently de-activated short positions entries until market message clears. Only longs are accepted.

    Hopefully the confusing message above helps!

  • BobbyLow

    IMO, both trading and gambling involve risk and probabilities. I believe the lines are blurred between these two things. How many times have we heard of a trader who held onto a losing position for so long that it killed his or her account? How does this compare to the gambler in Vegas who goes on a losing streak yet continues to roll the dice until there’s no money left to gamble with?

    As Mole said, we are in a nasty churn zone right now. I think that most of us here do a decent job of dealing with risk by using technical analysis and trading discipline as opposed to those trying to read cards at a black jack table or playing pure luck at roulette or dice. But there is always a certain degree of Risk with us no matter what.

    On a personal front, hedging my crude position over the weekend worked. I was able to jettison the short side yesterday morning at a small cost. And as of this moment, it’s like the Friday Dump never happened with Humpty Dumpty back together again better than he was before his fall. πŸ™‚

  • Mark Shinnick

    Yes. I’d argue that overhead resistance is trapped more psychologically from a volatility delusion, Plenty of testing of the lows has produced no headway but instead persistent fear producing the tradable edge.

  • Brishort

    NDX 30 min chart since April 5th: lines in the sand for market resolution.

    Above: favor long positions only
    Below: favor short positions only. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/be4fdb45585fe5d34a5f506171241f49c5c33ee8d24614e94a858c78aa482669.png

  • Mark Shinnick

    Yeah….and the bears have had around 3 months now to show their stuff.

  • Mark Shinnick

    We are again at a precipice of volatility crush.

  • HD

    On the same page, via SPX

  • ridingwaves

    Couple days old but still applies, the dark spinning top candle or whatever it is, needs to be broken by bulls, SPX, COMP and XLF have same candle, INDU is above it I believe…. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/016cd8e7426adf24dcbf20dbc6ba338e26fcf5020678c97d3343bae56930db0e.png

  • ridingwaves

    just do it MM’s, BIO via IBB-XBI seasonality is here….come on big boys, run it up….I have a couple bio picks I want to run with…

  • Brishort

    Every significant move probably postponed to 14h. Fake-out initial move to be expected. But indeed something is coming….

  • Trouzzer_Snake

    What was that? A little dip to scare some weak hands?

  • BKXtoZERO

    Mole, I “was” a gambler…. (there it is) and a dumb fuck too. Thank you for this current post! Thanks to you/Scott, and some time and hard work….. I consider myself a “trader”. I posted this over the weekend: ” To me a weekend entry here truly is gambling not trading or speculating”. I speak from lots of sad personal experience. I gambled with a deep seeded FOM (fear of missing out). I couldn’t put the trade on fast enough. This year I have been “trading” with my old rules set which I dusted off. This year I can’t say how often I told myself how much I love seeing my account go up in a “calculated” fashion while managing risk the whole way rather than swinging wildly at the whim of the MKT. There are so many helpful sayings that I learned here that are PURE GOLD. This year every time I heard the old voices, I reminded myself that “it is better wishing you were in a trade than wishing you were out of a trade”. I took joy that I was most often in cash and didn’t care what happened. Now I know that I am not a “great trader” but I KNOW that I am not a gambler. Every little barb in your posts over the years was not lost on me. “Things like “That is not how we roll here at Evil Speculator”….. Your “words to the wise” sections. All good stuff Mole. Thank you!

  • HD

    Here’s another example of VWAP meeting fibs. 10 handle pop. 3:4 so far on that set up. Yesterday was the miss. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/6c93cdd03b330502514ae48b4debd3ed7e15529d566c602496ac62c7874e5d93.jpg

  • kudra

    How many times have we heard of a trader who held onto a losing position for so long that it killed his or her account?

    ^^^ that’d be me.

  • Julie

    USO UGH ! I have been hammered on the gap up today It was a short probe (small position) but never the less.
    JULIE

  • Brishort

    Zero reacting at VWAP.
    Cloud below breach and SAR getting triggered on 10 min.
    Systems on 3 time increments up to 10 minutes about to turned short within 2 bars if does not bounce here.

    Will let the system take the short.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    ouch, that’s gotta sting. Comes with the territory.

    I’m happy with my XLE Long!

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=XLE&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p16062323723

  • Brishort

    I feel for you. CL has been un-tradable for me lately.
    I don’t know when it will be again, had to take it off my screen, just couldn’t get any profit in probably the last 20 trades…therefore in the penalty box of asset to be sidestepped for now.

  • Julie

    BKZtoZERO The sun sets only to rise again. I lost on USO today and will come beck. I did everything right as I knew why I made the trade etc … Can’t keep a good person down.
    JULIE’

  • Mark Shinnick

    Yes, whatver that is, it needs to express itself pretty soon.

  • Tomcat

    I was positioned short Crude (via $gaso) per my system and got stopped. But applying our systems correctly will win in the long run.

  • Mark Shinnick
  • Julie

    That is correct TC A losing trade as GG says comes with the territory and we learn from it.
    JULIE

  • Tomcat

    What I found interesting is that Oil has appeared to decouple from the indices the last couple or so trading days, not sure what to make of that yet…

  • BobbyLow

    I think that on average Oil always has a mind of it’s own. This the main reason why I like to trade it.

  • BKXtoZERO

    Me too…. you need something that is at least somewhat closer to a free market to trade. Someone else out there needs and uses oil so no matter what manipulation may exist, there is at least an actual market tugging it back and forth.

  • Julie

    TC the whims of the market . USO a double top with a lower channel trend line break on strong selling volume and strong selling momentum. I mean I did everything right. Oh well …. We just regroup losing the battle but we will win the war
    JULIE

  • BKXtoZERO

    I thought we are all expecting another high in CL ?

  • Tomcat

    I don’t believe there is such a thing as “free market”, all markets are manipulated, all the time.

  • Tomcat

    Purely based on vol, I will speculate that there is a bit of short covering going on here

  • Julie

    A new chart pattern is developing i.e. bullish ascending triangle. The previous pattern a double top with a lower channel trend line break . A failed pattern can move strongly in the other direction which USO has now done.. Now another high oil is expected as you state
    JULIE

  • Julie

    Yes TC volume is not confirming the move
    JULIE

  • BobbyLow

    Absolutely!

    Oil prices can get sucked up or down along with these massive moves as of late. But you’re right there is a separate market for crude and as Tomcat just said there is manipulation going on there too. However, I find it easier to deal with Oil Market manipulation because I know what I can expect from it. OTOH, getting jerked around from many different sides from the perils of the equity market is something I’ll leave to others to deal with.

  • Tomcat

    Vol is higher than avg

  • BKXtoZERO

    I missed seeing your entry. I shorted that last high but took a quick profit when the pattern didn’t look complete. It may be an expanding irregular pattern from low of 57 in February. If not then it will rip far higher.

  • Julie

    USO Here it is guys. The double top and lower trend line break on strong selling volume and strong selling momentum. What the heck BUT it was a failed pattern which can reverse strongly in the other direction which USO has done. Now a new pattern is emerging i.e. a bullish ascending triangle. JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/a2e920e8ac50d9d10c01090209cb0099aa75c7d0649f61e7868aa68e49fb0dbd.png

  • Brishort

    Vwap love fest, no trigger.
    Will remain neutral going into 14h. Time for lunch!

  • Tomcat

    Julie, same chart but added Stoch RSI. This move looks similar to lat Jan early Feb (double top):
    http://schrts.co/a8eoSV

  • BobbyLow

    And I’ll still say that volume doesn’t speak to my account at all. Only price does. I’m only in for whatever ride price can give me in either direction and I don’t care what’s pushing it up or down. All the other stuff makes my head hurt. πŸ™‚

  • Julie

    Another one too TC is Williams %
    JULIE

  • BKXtoZERO

    it did close slightly below the line. we are all certainly being messed with.

  • TA.Stockman H

    It set a lower low today, so if we go up, we can get a megaphone pattern.
    That can set up a YUGE drop to new lows (for 2018).

  • Brishort

    The market snake is coiling it’s coil…

  • HD

    I’m measuring 120 points SPX. 2434 or 2790 ish

  • StockTalker

    Looks like a repeat of yesterday. -4 /YM stop 24500

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    So I’m testing Tidal now in comparison with Spotify. Must say that I very much enjoy the sound quality with my new MEE M7 Pro earplugs πŸ™‚

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Zero snapshot for you leeches:

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/af14f03cf85e881d06cff93697e7aa68320daadea203697c005c1edc2d49bddd.png

    Nice catching that divergence @Brishort (thumbs up)

  • StockTalker

    Time to take her down bears!

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    High Yield,
    somebody turned the pump back on. Like you couldn’t tell.
    πŸ˜‰

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/dd09336070e2b23466cf28f85f3d6eed7ca683802e0d6f8aa3bcfa479afc1070.png

  • Julie

    GG HYG is a great indicator
    JULIE

  • Mark Shinnick
  • Tomcat

    Betting against Zucker???

  • Brishort

    NDX Back to the upper 30 min trendline posted below. Strange day where the night session action which should have occurred during the day just switched place with the day that is sideways correcting the move of the night by going nowhere all trading day…

  • ridingwaves

    trying too right now….

  • Julie

    SPX This triangle is still on the table as I alluded to in previous posts. The upper triangle trend line corresponds to the upper cloud boundary JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/61335cd6427217b8484db508a2421a6ff3b9190a683764dce882512779a03075.png

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    BTC hourly.
    ..if you didn’t pull off shorts by now, what are you waiting for?

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/16149126e11cd65c319485fae67bc3a0f9203f8d9ccb28b217bbbe821eda8ad9.png

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    off to lunch!!

  • HD

    4:5

  • Julie
  • StockTalker

    Don’t ever run up a steep hill and stop before getting to the top, the laws of physics will take over:)

  • StockTalker

    Would short it but do not play in stocks and don’t pay much attention to those smucks.

  • ridingwaves

    Global debt mountain climbs to record $237 trillion in 2017

    I think I’ll go have sushi tonite and add to it …..what a debt orgy its been

  • Julie

    DMRC does not trade many shares. I have been following the Fundies on this company. Looking for a long on next decline to lower trend lines for perhaps an investment if a resumption of a bullish market https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/9ec0d49fdb22da7b92284940bfcdfaf9944dd98c24e16e73fe671d8e2f532132.png JULIE

  • HD

    5:6

  • HD

    3:3 today on fib at VWAP. FWIW. Just became new bread and butter set up. They each went 10 handles. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/a6df2db8eef64023309cd792823ffcd3cf4a00306dc7a1a6662319773e502eb1.jpg Will delete and probably not mention much again πŸ™‚

  • BobbyLow

    Congrats! πŸ™‚

    It certainly worked for today at 3 for 3. My only question would be what would be the probability of it working over a period of a 100 Trades or more? Maybe you really have something here.

  • Julie

    USO I am looking for three scenarios (1) Breakout point failure. (2) Breakout then a successful back test of resistance turned support (3) Retest of the double top and a failure. Going to watch closely JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/012401f835e62f4f9414623bc6b1bf5be1eda3ea5c722f71a4ad64bc04f51567.png

  • HD

    It didn’t catch the fall yesterday. It adds 1 layer to what I was already doing, watching fibs. cheers.

  • Julie

    BL and HD Corey Rosenbloom has a similar system and plays it on a 30 min chart. I have used it too on occasion
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • HD

    Did that close Monday’s gap?

  • Mark Shinnick

    Still working that 4-2 gap on my end labu. Also holding long miners.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Even still, Love to see those plans come together !

  • BobbyLow

    There are obviously many more buyers than sellers to contribute to a short squeeze in crude today.

    For those who might be interested in a verbal explanation there are a few scenarios and although these stories are never etched in stone there might be a grain or two of truth in them.

    Syria
    https://www.cnbc.com/2018/04/10/oil-jumps-3-percent-to-above-65-on-growing-middle-east-tensions.html

    Saudi Arabia What come forth from our Saudi friends?
    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-04-10/saudi-arabia-is-said-to-signal-ambition-for-80-oil-price

    Whether or not today has any legs or not remains to be seen but . . .

  • HD

    sellers were sitting on it too!

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    How’s my crew? I’d love to see a juicy drop on the E-Mini ahead of the FOMC report. However the Zero signal is fairly positive, so small chance of that happening today it seems.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/6f64501cb1148df45464a65a3c56a7fcb2fdd33e076a8af606825d50becec1b3.png

  • Mark Shinnick

    selling….just seems to be getting a worn and tired story.

  • http://www.captainboom.com/ captainboom

    I’m surprised /ES isn’t moving up more with the positive Zero all day.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    I propose we change the Zero brand to
    “Juicy vwap squeeze machine.”
    πŸ˜‰

  • Julie

    Doing OK Chief A minor letdown but the sun sets only to rise again. How are you doing chief ?
    JULIE

  • BobbyLow

    Muy Bueno!!!

  • HD

    I’m a terrible judge of that. Visually can see a big pattern, the bottoming INHS and also see this rally has wedged back up to 2670 levels. They can gap and go or…. We should find out soon.

  • Brishort

    Hating these range days, but otherwise ok!

  • grednfer

    Uptrend
    Looks like its gonna grind its way over to 2730ish…..
    If you have a good forecast post it up.
    Break of this channel will be 3 of 3……total obliteration to 2400.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/754133bb362d91226f1c5d7e2875e6aa59a4d32b008c8704e6aa380a65ede89e.png

  • Mark Shinnick

    So… looks like volume hole just above …just saying πŸ™‚

  • StockTalker

    Watch overnight, allot of action after hours as of late.

  • ridingwaves

    moves in both directions reek of desperation

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    It’s been rough tape over the past few weeks but you guys are doing a splendid job sticking with the script. Otherwise working on some other projects on the side which are pretty time consuming.

  • Mark Shinnick

    …price discovery by us lost souls.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    It’s pretty range bound given the magnitude of the signal. I wonder if this represents distribution ahead of tomorrow’s FOMC report.

  • Julie

    RW A market top is characterized by a battle between the bulls and bears. I believe Jesse Livermore was on the sidelines until a winner or trend defined
    JULIE

  • BKXtoZERO

    wow! I was the feature post of the day! Nice to be infamous…… I think if you are looking at the futures on Sundays “hoping” for a move in your favor you are gambling. If you are making calculated entries on Monday with a plan and a stop, you are trading. Even last week with a real possibility of a bearish “Turd of a Turd”, I would have been in holding big. I was 100% out and even pulled off my last small position.

  • Julie

    Tonite I will show you my momentum play It will be late approx. 10 pm PDT
    JULIE

  • Darkthirty

    Possible drop to 2590, then 2711 target is 618 of the move down from 2805

  • ridingwaves

    Yep, whatever the course of action that comes next it should cause hurt on opposite side…

  • Darkthirty

    hmmm

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    ..better show us something!!
    πŸ˜‰

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    rag doll in pit-bulls mouth.

  • BobbyLow

    Jesse also said, ” A stock is never too high to buy and never too low to short. Markets are never wrong – opinions often are.”

    It’s amazing that so many of his quotes from many, many decades ago are still valid.

  • Julie

    Yes BL One of his greatest assets was knowing when not to trade
    JULIE

  • TA.Stockman H

    He didn’t have a computer and internet.
    If he did, he’d probably trade everyday.
    The trend is your friend unless it’s a tight sideways.
    Then, you’re getting whipped in and out and possibly losing money.

    GL all.

  • TA.Stockman H

    Could also be a sideways trend with a small breach of 2590. Until either 2670 or 2590 is broken, we won’t know. Channels are meant to be breached and re-entered IMO.

  • BobbyLow

    That’s a good point. All Jesse had was a ticker tape or reading what someone just wrote on a blackboard after reading a ticker tape.

    And totally agree that the trend is your friend. This hasn’t changed one bit.

  • Brishort

    Being a very rough tape is an understatement. With regular days of 100 NQ points and more, the profits accumulated should be through the roof. But nothing could be further from the truth.

    Hence something has changed in the market but my systems are still trying to adapt to it. Shortening the time increments on every chart has helped, but the whiplash on stops and trailing stops remains tremendous.

    And there is obviously a financial limit to widening said stops in these types of wide ranging markets, because the percentages and magnitude and frequency of movements are just too large.

    Bottom line: splendid job not applicable in my case but working hard to adapt.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    You dirty old man!

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Maybe I should join Rollo, RooshV and the others.
    πŸ˜‰

    https://i.ytimg.com/vi/ItXKGyO6cRA/maxresdefault.jpg

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Mark Shinnick

    ….and some of us think the markets can be tough…whew.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    I don’t think I can stay up late to watch Julie’s strip momentum show.

    The arc feature on stockcharts is very disappointing. Try this one, 4hr candles.
    blue circles are anchor points.
    yellow circles are SMA recognition.

    It’s a real danger zone, long or short. You can truly see the shift from trending,
    to frog blender behavior. L8ter!

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/027e0c8dcf6c244e69c7da28fb0a487e052236f479e393b4a8459a5ddb8ac7ba.png

  • Julie

    Julie’s momentum trade Not a strip show GG ! Everyone uses the overbought or oversold CCI (20) for a reversal BUT it can also be used for momentum I use (1) RSI 3 (2) PPO 3,9,16 (4) CCI 20 (5) 5 ema (6) Ichi Cloud 8,21,55
    For a momentum long price must be above the conversion line (8) and baseline (21) along with CCI (20) above + 100. Price must go above the 5 ema with the PPO 3,9,16 above it’s centerline and signal line. Now caution is advised when RSI 3 goes above 84 which can presage a reversal at any time. Preferably price should be above the cloud.

    I exit with a bearish close below the daily 5 ema or the 30 min chart with a bearish candle closing below the 30 min 65 ema

    A momentum short is just the reverse of the long with RSI 3 at 16 for caution

    The trade can be several days to a week or longer
    EXAMPLE ABMD —- 5 trades one was a loser which you cut a loss immediately
    GG Julie’s strip show possible at a future date TBD LOL ! JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/672636372cabbef0a107a126c5fbd5f30be3829b452313e69a556f07e8aeed40.png

  • Julie
  • Julie
  • BKXtoZERO

    Nice Julie…. Interesting. I am going to cut/paste and study when I can. I don’t mess with individual stocks, do you have a record of success using this on any index? metals? Crude? speaking of crude…. don’t mind those crude comments from GG.

  • Julie

    BKXtoZERO I hit approx. 75% win with this system on individual stocks. I monitor very closely and if it goes against me POOF GONE ! What GG posts is all in jest. He and my husband go back years. Both excellent technicians. Someday will show you when time allows how to calculate Algos yes Algos which can be used on any stock – index and commodity. GG and my husband know how to do it. They both shared info for years and great traders
    JULIE

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I won’t be posting ahead of the FOMC announcement at 2:00pm today. Very little edge in preceding churn…

  • StockTalker

    Flipped to long for the moment.

  • StockTalker

    Flipped to short 24150

  • Brishort

    LOL, “Frog blender” a definitive keeper. For full disclosure, I may steal this one from time to time :p

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Crikey!

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    yes, in Jest.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    there’s a bloodier one, but we keep it classy here.
    πŸ˜‰

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • ridingwaves

    We interrupt this Julie momo trade broadcast for a special news alert- Yes News, that damn dreaded word of despair

    VHC just won settlement vs Apple of 503 million yesterday afternoon, damages and other claims could come increase payout
    5.05 pre market, 4.10 close, tiny ah volume for news, 20 million shares short on 60 million float, high of year was 9+, what is amazing is if you look at arrows on charts, someone kinda of new this judgement ahead of time…

    Institutions own 24%…Some big hitters too
    I’m jumping in on volume surge, It could see 8+ if it carves thru 6, plenty of support at 3.75 and now at 4.15..weekly has a 14 possible, hoping shorts drive it down into 4’s for bid….4.75 bid

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/a6ecebe98b58767d8c64ca97fb5dc26055e25a53035f51ca4af80882389f472a.png

  • HD

    very nice! I’ll join you on that trade.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Long miners nearing initial objective.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III
  • ridingwaves

    bid filled…..ok boys take her up….

  • ridingwaves

    gold breaks out and it could rocket past 2K later this year…coiling up for something big no matter direction

  • Yoda

    Gold should be in everyone’s portfolio for turbulent times like the ones we are currently facing.

  • BKXtoZERO

    Taking 0.5R entry TVIX 10.08, hard stop 9.7 below support shelf

  • StockTalker

    Dollar about to strike, short crude from these levels now.

  • StockTalker

    You should be happy with that trade today. Been long TVIX as well

  • HD

    Hope all my shiny silver coins get some love too…. dead money

  • Mark Shinnick

    Will look at that ….still long equities from this morning.

  • Yoda

    I have coins too, but I keep them as a last resort money. For trading, miners suit me just well.

  • BKXtoZERO

    still have my silver from 9/10$, rounds and bars for shit hits the fan moment

  • StockTalker

    /YM 24k again, if it fails kiss this market goodbye:) How many times can it hold?

  • Mark Shinnick

    Until volatility finally cracks ?

  • StockTalker

    Think it drops today

  • BKXtoZERO

    VIX has support at 20 and just under, red candle today roughly the size of past 4 red candles…. see if it holds here

  • StockTalker

    TVIX all coiled up now and ready to rock!

  • ridingwaves

    I Agree, when everyone hates it, you need to own it…

  • Mark Shinnick

    That’s sort of energy is good to hear about. Presume it can cut both ways.

  • StockTalker

    10.00 is a buy, support if you will.

  • Mark Shinnick

    I have a 9.3 initial objective.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • BKXtoZERO

    added 0.5R at 9.97

  • Mark Shinnick

    Ok…initial objective met, exited long equities and miners for time being.

  • ridingwaves

    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/john-boehner-is-joining-a-marijuana-company-2018-04-11?mod=bnbh

    the world is going crazy…J Boehner now backing the indica flower

  • BobbyLow

    Not going to bitch about price at the gas pump this time. πŸ™‚

    Crude having another big day so far.

  • Mark Shinnick

    CBD makes a lot of sense.

  • ridingwaves

    has to be 1 to 1….the THC is the healing part

  • StockTalker

    Greedy is all

  • BobbyLow

    World is already crazy.

  • ridingwaves

    true…I’ll redact that statement….fake news..

  • Mark Shinnick

    How is that figured?

  • Yoda

    nope, cbd is the one

  • StockTalker

    Won’t see that price for a long time

  • Mark Shinnick

    Super-short model long tvix 10.10….but its scalp thing.

  • Yoda

    I going to buy Canopy if it can keep its price above the 100 d sma
    http://schrts.co/7EQQLi

  • Mark Shinnick

    That would be marvelous if it works out πŸ™‚

  • StockTalker

    Price target is 50 but 23k must fail

  • BKXtoZERO

    There was (is) a pot stock called Pharmos…. I first started trading in 1997 in Silly valley when a tech friend got me into it. Pharmos was his favorite stock. (PARS) He was in and out but had really started loading up. He called me over and told me he bought even more…. I can’t even recall…. 70K shares or something right before it failed big time. He lost everything. I had sense to stay away.

  • ridingwaves

    were trying it in severe case of phantom pain for my paralyzed cousin..
    20-1, no help, 3-1 so far no good, 1-1 is where we hope to find relief….

  • Mark Shinnick

    Pain can be so immensely challenging. It sets up its own perpetuating feedback.

  • Yoda

    thc has some benefits, but overall CBD is the wonder molecule for treating a lot of health issues, especially neurologic ones

  • Mark Shinnick

    I’d be genuinely impressed to see around 11. The bear is tired and really needs to demonstrate.

  • ridingwaves

    The THC is what is controlled, so our belief is that is the active ingredient to better facilitate the CBD..they are needed or binded together for best overall benefit…..

  • Yoda

    with today’s break of the 100 m sma, the yellow metal prospect look really rosy from a technical point of view https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/59ecb6e43f0e647dee3df6a02f8d9df889ef89838b13d57d658d34efe5a1c3a6.png

  • StockTalker

    Lol, should see a new high if my plan is successful. Would need to see 24k fail.

  • ridingwaves

    surprised about the delayed reaction to the CBO report the other day, it was extremely bullish for the precious…..looks like the mm’s were just loading up down there….

  • Mark Shinnick

    Could be…so much of the CBD was bred-out with THC demand so we know psychoactivity works in that direction without need for much if any CBD.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Yeah…guess I don’t see the light.

  • Mark Shinnick

    What’s all in your pot stock list these dazs?

  • Yoda

    No, not really.It depends on your condition. I have family members who are on Charlotte’s Web (pure CBD) for issues that I want to keep private. Once they have started it, it literally changed their life for the better, like being reborn. THC has a lot of negative side effects, but also some benefits (like improving appetite). There is no set formulae for what should be deemed best, but THC is not the critical molecule for medical issues.

  • HD

    “get ready Russia” Maybe $100 crude swiftly

  • HD

    putting on a clinic Mark. Nice trades

  • HD

    you were looking for a rally yesterday. Nice call!

  • Mark Shinnick

    You point out some fascinating stuff very timely.

  • BobbyLow

    I just read a little bit about CBD and it does show a lot of promise.

  • Yoda

    Unless CBs beat it down soon, it will explode much higher once price breaches 1380

  • HD
  • Yoda

    there is no travel prohibition for products containing pure CBD, unlike THC. Market for CBD is much bigger

  • BobbyLow

    Even though I’m glad I was long Crude before this latest threat, I don’t want to see anyone killed especially the 2,000 of our own troops in Syria. This is a weird situation for me.

  • BKXtoZERO

    VIX has intraday divergence, right at support, should go one way or the other soon! https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/c8bfe65ddfe1ef40d33729b240fac9df4e37bdd855d5fb40f5003473a8ca9cc9.jpg

  • Mark Shinnick

    Yeah…could be the expected crush so stay very nimble / no denial one bit.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Reminder too about some volume hole above the market, FWIW.

  • Darkthirty

    Does the plant have to have high levels of THC for the CBD to be effective? Or would hemp be sufficient?

  • BKXtoZERO

    out of half, 9.9, 0.10 loss

  • Mark Shinnick

    So dammed locked-loaded right now. Some friggin bot is set to do something all bazaar…

  • BKXtoZERO

    Keeping things tighter than a cockroaches sphincter SIR!

  • ridingwaves

    I think it’s still an unknown, I too have had friends where CBD benefits, some others not so..great for the folks who do benefit…I’m all for it…
    the area I live in is super progressive on this issue…

  • Mark Shinnick

    I’m just imagining at times like this not really a initial bang…but first a stiletto-like slow moving blade.

  • Yoda

    you should try less volatile products

  • HD

    ha. I lol’d

  • HD

    Is it sell in May? or what’s the saying? Didn’t work last year but did in 2016 and the last time the 50DMA was pointed down, 2015, started a 7 month bear.

  • Yoda

    each strain has different proportions of molecules. Because, THC is the one giving you the buzz, most strains available on the market have been genetically modified to contain a higher level of THC. However for medicinal purposes, CDB strains are way more useful. The natural hemp that is used to make ropes, fabric, and generally has industrial properties, contains mostly CBD.

  • Julie

    USO Watching the scenarios posted yesterday (1) False breakout (2) Breakout and successful back test JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/066551e75f24b809b071e01d781e96fe445ea935106ff5d98927698a3b630e8e.png

  • Ronebadger

    …and that’s water tight…

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    OMG – I can’t believe I missed out on such an exciting session!!!

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/e1fc5fef32a63c37c238665512d51b2ba51c5c49963ff4298ae239dff6a943db.png

    NOT! Nothing happens until 2:00pm Eastern.

  • StockTalker

    Not easy to see without a plan.

  • Julie

    Ronebadger A frog’s butt is water tight Lol !
    JULIE

  • StockTalker

    Still some good action

  • Julie

    SPX W https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/a5bfb92874bf6d747f283d0fa5dea6d9d6671232b929884cd5250de99fe0ce1e.png ill the inverted H & S pattern playout ? Not sure as it is struggling at the daily 21 ema which is below the declining 55 ema (not shown) A bearish close below the 5 ema may enter a short Just saying JULIE

  • HD

    FibWAP 2646

  • HD

    52.50 news on deck

  • ridingwaves

    Precious cannot pass the green line, CB’s will defend it with all honor….fingers crossed… https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/5faa8bc813ae062cae39ff1d1bdbc1f6a15953900e14fc51834b7db964e30da6.png

  • BKXtoZERO

    Obvious head and shoulders last few days on ES…. maybe too obvious.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Yes…”what everyone knows…”

  • Brishort

    BTW, H&S are one of the most unreliable pattern in my book because:

    People try way too often to recognize them early, when in fact it is only upon a retest of the neckline that they typically become validated. Until you see that clear retest upon break of the neckline (assuming the line is clear as well, the tilt of the required angle in backtesting is also a consistent source of mistakes) it is very difficult to rely on the pattern.

    My two cents only, but H&S and wave wanking are just as unreliable in my book. Clearly not without value, but very unreliable for trading.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Excellent point. I believe its something to do with the mere presence of a fixed reference that makes that difference. Long equities but may be a waste of time today after all.

  • StockTalker

    Take her down my furry friends:)

  • HD

    I’m old enough to remember when FOMC meant something….. Only Twitter moves the market now.

  • Mark Shinnick

    “Hair-Twitter”

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • HD

    In all honesty, I have never seen anything that can define price action better than Elliot Wave. Now, if someone was using Pretcher counts in a vacuum, that’s a different story. Once you learn the fractal nature of price action all of your systems will be clearer. That is just my experience.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • HD

    2640 (HWB) level gate keeper for some carnage IMO

  • StockTalker

    Dollar barely flinched

  • Julie

    YUP !
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    ..the ratio has been unnatural the last two months IMHO.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GLD%3AUUP&p=D&yr=1&mn=6&dy=0&id=p52933840024

  • BKXtoZERO

    at the neckline now…………..

  • BKXtoZERO

    at neckline now, we shall soon see!

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    *cough*

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Julie

    SPX A 3rd retest of horizontal resistance will match the declining 55 ema. 3rd time often is the make or break JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/89974dcd575ef584059b768018811cffa221c8e812f011d097e255af5e2bf153.png

  • Mark Shinnick

    Have played “Darker” hundreds of times these last few months.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III
  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Arctic cold front hit Spain for some reason – under 50 F right now, which is quite a change from a week ago.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    ladies and rats, Hell has Frozen over.
    almost.
    πŸ˜‰

  • ridingwaves

    for Germans that is downright balmy, you getting soft or something from sangria….

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    yeah.
    it’s 44F in Hamburg right now, what the heck?

  • BobbyLow

    I lived in Germany for three years and I think there was about 30 days of total sunshine at my location. It was like living in a black and white movie. πŸ™‚

    The beer was great though!

  • Julie

    USO 13.28 is strong support Watching closely guys Getting ready to pounce …… ! https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/4e4754b736dc25eb1a18052e42127cc1496199c6fe174e3b20bdb6587d524aed.png
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    pounce away, I don’t see the value of overnight risk myself.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=USO&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p72758819347

    Time check.

  • ridingwaves

    watch out for the 2 black sheep spinning top candles hanging near the red spinning Putin candle…..The Syrian formation, wheres urban candle dictionary?
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/079e826b213a69fbffe38c71b9156b0e483e2fc90ba227237fc0d18d03d7ec14.png

  • Julie

    RW Tough time too at the declining 21 ema posted earlier
    JULIE

  • ridingwaves

    not looking bullish, not to bearish, a sideways minefield….

  • Julie

    SPX between the 21 and 5 ema’s convergence
    JULIE

  • BKXtoZERO

    sold 1/4 position, holding 1/4 position TVIX, I was hoping for resolution intraday, waste of a perfectly good day watching this stuff……

  • Julie

    As the late Walter Cronkite would say “That’s the way it was on this day April 11 2018 ” Everyone Have A Great Rest Of Day …. Back to work
    JULIE

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Actually it’s a lot warmer up in Northern Europe than in Spain. Madrid is currently one of the coldest places in W. Europe. Very strange and untypical spring weather.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I went through that in my teens when I lived in Northern Germany. Gray and fucking depressing most of the year. Last time I set foot on German soil was in 1991 – I’ll never go back there.

  • ridingwaves

    even if titled land by madam Merkel…..:) the heck with that, what are u doing not going to Equador or Costa Rica……jesus, do I need to go for u again…

  • BobbyLow

    I was stationed in just about in the center of Germany at Ramstein. I got to travel quite a bit while I was there. It was only a few hours drive to Belgium, Paris and the Netherlands. The picture on my Avatar is me standing next to my car in Ramstein. That was over 50 years ago. Yikes!

    Although I was too young to realize it at the time and couldn’t wait to get home, it was one of the best experiences of my life.

  • Mark Shinnick

    :…and go away.” I think that was long long B4 anything like our present daily average true ranges.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Silver.
    still skeptical. It would be nice to see a blow out to a clean $18 range trade.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/9ae4f278ba07978e660251258587672fe5230063ca2a67a6b7570542fe23a210.png

    ..with Copper weekly supporting
    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24COPPER&p=W&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p87758425985

  • http://www.captainboom.com/ captainboom

    To quote my father re: the military. “I wouldn’t want to do it again, but you couldn’t pay me for the experience.”

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I don’t live in Germany – not sure I understand what you’re saying.

  • https://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Now if you’re talking about moving from Spain to Costa Rica – completely different lifestyle. Try to find organic food for example – almost impossible. I considered Chile for a few years before I moved to Spain but quickly changed my mind πŸ˜‰